William Contreras is Stuck in a Two-Year Slump. The Brewers Need More.

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

William Contreras has looked like a different hitter this season. After averaging 20 home runs across his first two years in Milwaukee and playing through a broken finger in 2025, the expectation was that offseason surgery would restore his power. Instead, the opposite has happened. The underlying data suggests he hasn't just been less productive; he's become a different kind of hitter.

You can see below the Savant percentiles comparison for Contreras across the last three years; it's telling in this regard. Strikeout rates were never a problem for him, even when he was swinging and missing. Pitchers also appear more willing to challenge him in the zone, which has coincided with the lowest walk rate of his Brewers career. So what, exactly, has gone wrong here to change his profile so dramatically?

Before diving into the swing changes, it's worth asking whether fatigue could be playing a role. The first thing, which we can't rule out, is injury, Contreras showed just last year that he'll play through almost anything with nary a peep, and catchers take a beating behind the plate. The wear and tear at that position is unique, but we can say that, if there was an injury, there is absolutely no reason not to see Gary Sánchez behind the plate more regularly.

Of the 111 games the Brewers have played at the time of this writing, Contreras has started 83 behind the plate, which would project up to around 121 starts by the end of the year. That's seven fewer than 2025, but it would constitute a large workload for a catcher they want to be firing on all cylinders in October, not struggling to the finish line.

Is Contreras Still Swinging Fast?
Let's take a look at the bat-tracking data. His bat speed distribution shows us how often Contreras is swinging the bat at different speeds, where the higher the arc, the more often he swings in that range. Here is his distribution of swings since 2023:

This is the biggest measure of intent we can see, and there are some giveaways that Contreras is being less aggressive this year than he was in 2024. The arc of 2025-26 is peaking earlier, with his most common swing averaging around 74 mph rather than 75 mph in bat speed. What's really telling, however, is on the right-hand side of this graph. Notice how the orange and blue lines for 2023 and 2024 show a number of swings at 82+ mph, but there are almost none in that range between the last two seasons. Injury may account for some of that, but there's more to this;

Above is another breakdown, this time of Contreras's stance and point of impact. This is where we're seeing a big change. In 2023 and 2024, Contreras's stance was slightly more open/neutral, impacting the ball a little further back overall (which did engender him to a few more ground balls than is ideal). The MLB average stance set-up is 11° open, so Contreras was still more "closed" than your average player. The last two years, however, he's adopted an even more closed stance.

In theory, a more closed stance should encourage a hitter to stay on the ball longer and use the opposite field more often. That was true for stretches of 2025. However, his contact point relative to his center of mass is now almost identical to what it was with the more open stance, creating a mechanical mismatch.

Let's compare two home runs from those years to see the stance difference even into his "A" swing:

Above is a swing from earlier this year. Notice how Contreras's feet are angled more toward the opposite field, almost shutting off the pull side. He opens up slightly after his toe tap, but while he middled this swing, it's an awkward position to pull the ball from. Now see the swing below (in case you ever needed to see what "letting it rip" looks like), which is from 2024:

Contreras uses a leg kick rather than a toe tap here, starting with his feet closer together and exploding into the ball. At contact, his feet are 10-15° open, directed toward left field rather than right field. This is a swing where he was over 82 mph in bat speed, and it showed. One might question why someone whose swing was so successful would have remodeled it quite so extensively, and that perhaps lends itself to the cerebral nature of the man, which we'll come to in a bit.

I'm not suggesting Contreras can't hit home runs with 74 mph of bat speed. That's plenty for a hitter, but I do think it shows a lack of intent versus previous seasons. He's trying to be more of a hitter than a slugger, especially in favourable counts wherein he should be able to unload. Most importantly, however, there seems to be a discrepancy in his set-up compared to his swing, and closing off his stance means that when he does pull the ball in the air, something he's doing more of this season, he's not doing it with the authority we're used to. 

He has managed to get the ground balls under control, reducing it from 55% of balls in play coming on the ground in 2024 to 42% in 2026. That's great, but he's lost the authority with which he traditionally hit balls, especially over the last month or two. Contreras is known for, at times, overthinking his approach behind the plate as a catcher, and he seems to be very cerebral in the box, too. We've seen him set up with different stances in the same at-bat in the past, playing a game of 4D chess with a pitcher. I can't say if that's right or wrong, but it is unique, and can make it difficult to be consistent in your swing.

Whether it's lingering physical limitations, accumulated fatigue, or an intentional mechanical adjustment, Contreras doesn't look like the hitter he was in 2023 or 2024. The encouraging part is that the underlying bat speed remains good enough to rediscover that version of himself. The Brewers just need him to do it before October. The catcher is too important to their lineup, and perhaps the freedom to let the bat eat every once in a while could loosen the mental shackles, too.

Can he find a way to tap into those elite exit velocities while keeping the ball in the air? Or is this a pick-your-poison situation? That, I can't answer, but if given a choice, I would take the latter. That power is far more consequential to this Brewers lineup, as constructed, than any bat-to-ball improvement that sacrifices said power.

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What have you thought of William Contreras's output lately? Do you think this is just a blip on the radar? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Trax]

We have what, 3 hitting coaches and others who certainly know a little about hitting and related adjustments?

They must have a theory and Contreras has been getting more rest this year than ever.  Just like with Yelich, may have to move him down in the lineup as it sits right now.  5 or 6 for him and 8 or 9 for Yelich.

[Jake McKibbin]

Just now, Trax said:

We have what, 3 hitting coaches and others who certainly know a little about hitting and related adjustments?

They must have a theory and Contreras has been getting more rest this year than ever.  Just like with Yelich, may have to move him down in the lineup as it sits right now.  5 or 6 for him and 8 or 9 for Yelich.

Absolutely! As mentioned, it does show some progression, he's elevating the ball more which is perhaps the intention. What he's sacrificed to get there however is a bit of his thump, and while the change may be good for him in some situations, overall it's thump, not a high batting average, the Brewers need right now.

[Joseph Zarr]

The hitting is streaky. When it's good it is game changing. My biggest contention with Contreras is his head scratching pitch mixing and pitch calling. I know the forward facing coach speak is positive and supportive but I have to imagine behind closed doors Contreras drives his manager and pitching coaches absolutely nuts.

[keephopealive]

I gave the article to Claude, asking for a tl;dr, and then gave that summary back to Claude for another tl;dr.  This is what came out:

Quote

Contreras's power dropped because he changed his swing mechanics—closed stance, lower bat speed (74 vs 82+ mph), less aggressive approach. Reason unclear: could be injury, fatigue, or intentional coaching adjustment. He needs to swing harder before October

 

[Lathund]

The decline on both sides of the ball in the last couple of seasons is why I'm perfectly fine just letting the contract run out after next season, and only re-sign in free agency if a reasonable short-term deal can be agreed to. So in other words, most likely not re-signing. We obviously don't know if this is the start of his decline, or something temporary, but I'd rather not risk signing a catcher for big money into his mid 30s with this trend. 

[Matthew Trueblood]

52 minutes ago, keephopealive said:

I gave the article to Claude, asking for a tl;dr, and then gave that summary back to Claude for another tl;dr.  This is what came out:

 

....... why did you do any of that? And CRUCIALLY, why did you tell us?

[Jopal78]

He’s been an All Star 3 seasons out of his six, despite “a 2 year slump” he is 3rd amongst NL catchers in terms of OPS. 

Boy, good thing this content is given away for free. If you had to sell it to eat, you’d starve to death. 

[Sixtolezcano]

Lately I feel when Contreras comes to bat is the same way I feel when Yelich comes to the plate.

[homer]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

He’s been an All Star 3 seasons out of his six, despite “a 2 year slump” he is 3rd amongst NL catchers in terms of OPS. 

Boy, good thing this content is given away for free. If you had to sell it to eat, you’d starve to death. 

There is nothing is stopping you from writing an article.

[Snoebird]

Guillermo Martinez, a Spanish-speaking hitting coach who worked with Vlad Jr. and Bichette in Toronto, was added to the Brewers' staff this year. He asked Contreras, "Do you want to be a Silver Slugger, or do you want to be an MVP?" He probably has been Bill's biggest influence this season. 

[Jake McKibbin]

15 hours ago, keephopealive said:

I gave the article to Claude, asking for a tl;dr, and then gave that summary back to Claude for another tl;dr.  This is what came out:

 

Thank you. This is why I spend an hour or more researching, challenging my views and collating data before even writing an article, just so someone can ignore literally all of it. I will say that captures none of the nuances of the situation, and has completely misappropriated statistics within the article. 

If you want to do this, fine. Please do not tarnish my hard work with the drivel that LLM AI summarises my articles into. Thank you.

14 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

He’s been an All Star 3 seasons out of his six, despite “a 2 year slump” he is 3rd amongst NL catchers in terms of OPS. 

Boy, good thing this content is given away for free. If you had to sell it to eat, you’d starve to death. 

Okay I'll deal with the main comment here. Offensive catchers are hard to come by, and the position averages an 89 OPS+ this year (I heard that mentioned recently). In that context, Contreras is an above average catcher. However, if Aaron Judge had a .750 OPS, would you say "he's an above average hitter", or would you feel disappointed because you have higher standards for Aaron Judge?

I've compared William to his former self and analysed the changes he's made to his swing to get where he is today, and that while they have reaped some improvements in a few areas, overall they've sacrificed what the Brewers need most in this particular line-up: thump. I don't think the scathing nature of this is warranted, but if you want to read the article and contest any of my points on a more in depth scale, I'm happy to have a debate. Same goes for anyone in this forum.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Thank you. This is why I spend an hour or more researching, challenging my views and collating data before even writing an article, just so someone can ignore literally all of it. I will say that captures none of the nuances of the situation, and has completely misappropriated statistics within the article. 

If you want to do this, fine. Please do not tarnish my hard work with the drivel that LLM AI summarises my articles into. Thank you.

Okay I'll deal with the main comment here. Offensive catchers are hard to come by, and the position averages an 89 OPS+ this year (I heard that mentioned recently). In that context, Contreras is an above average catcher. However, if Aaron Judge had a .750 OPS, would you say "he's an above average hitter", or would you feel disappointed because you have higher standards for Aaron Judge?

I've compared William to his former self and analysed the changes he's made to his swing to get where he is today, and that while they have reaped some improvements in a few areas, overall they've sacrificed what the Brewers need most in this particular line-up: thump. I don't think the scathing nature of this is warranted, but if you want to read the article and contest any of my points on a more in depth scale, I'm happy to have a debate. Same goes for anyone in this forum.

Every one knows baseball players have good months and bad months (especially when playing with a broke hand). Contreras remains one of the premier catchers in the major leagues.

It’s like saying your Porsche doesn’t drive as well this summer than it did in 2024. It’s still a Porsche and nearly everyone else has a Honda. 

So there is no real point to your article. Is that better? 

[Jake McKibbin]

8 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Every one knows baseball players have good months and bad months (especially when playing with a broke hand). Contreras remains one of the premier catchers in the major leagues.

It’s like saying your Porsche doesn’t drive as well this summer than it did in 2024. It’s still a Porsche and nearly everyone else has a Honda. 

So there is no real point to your article. Is that better? 

Okay, so needling aside, that's a great metaphor, and a very valid opinion. The article however is directed to the changes he's made to his approach and set-up since his 2024 iteration where he impacts the ball more, but with some trade-off in the swing and miss department. He's made clear changes that have moved him away from the version of himself, and the article is intended to dissect those changes and explain why they've had the effect that's occurred.

To use your metaphor, the Porsche underwent some attempts to supe it up, changed out the exhaust, adjusted some of the ECU mapping, and it hasn't turned out quite as expected. The car has lost some of its original top end speed, albeit it's a slightly smoother ride. 

I had fun replying in that metaphor by the way, so thanks!

The point, for anyway, is always to write something that educates or informs in a new way, and I hope the article has fulfilled that.

 

[WAN2]

It would appear the  catching position has tanked from the #1 catcher in MLB AND the #1 catcher in the minors.  Bummer.  

[CheezWizHed]

Quote

Contreras's power dropped because he changed his swing mechanics—closed stance, lower bat speed (74 vs 82+ mph), less aggressive approach. Reason unclear: could be injury, fatigue, or intentional coaching adjustment. He needs to swing harder before October

 

[CheezWizHed]

@Jake McKibbin, now do Yelich.  His swing looks completely lost this year. Though I doubt it is his swing and more about pitch recognition (i.e. flailing at pitches and looking like he is guessing). 

[Jake McKibbin]

9 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

@Jake McKibbin, now do Yelich.  His swing looks completely lost this year. Though I doubt it is his swing and more about pitch recognition (i.e. flailing at pitches and looking like he is guessing). 

I think Matt's breakdown from earlier in the year still holds the most weight, and the swing is a little more rigid, especially down and in

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

Can't wait for the latest breaking tweet----"Brewers drop Vogelbach from hitting staff; hire Claude."

[Jim French Stepstool]

22 hours ago, homer said:

There is nothing is stopping you from writing an article.

You DO realize that if that happens it'll now be your fault, right?

[keephopealive]

@Jake McKibbin I meant no insult. I also DID read the article and appreciate the work.  But I have difficulty sifting through everything - it's a statement on me, rather than you - which is why I fed it into Claude (twice!). 

[Jake McKibbin]

47 minutes ago, keephopealive said:

@Jake McKibbin I meant no insult. I also DID read the article and appreciate the work.  But I have difficulty sifting through everything - it's a statement on me, rather than you - which is why I fed it into Claude (twice!). 

Haha fair enough! If there's ever anything you need clarified or want further explanation on, if you ever drop a comment or send a message in more than happy to answer dude! But I appreciate your clarification, thanks man

[Ron750]

This is a good article. Thank you. I pay for an Athletic subscription and they barely cover the Brewers. So I appreciate an in depth analysis like this. 
If I were you I wouldn’t respond to negative comments. Life is too short.