Rays throw a curveball

[RobertCrawley]

3 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Martinez pitched into the sixth inning during his last start. Same with Peralta, his previous two starts. Rasmussen has averaged seven innings over his past three starts.

That said, I don’t see a meaningful mismatch between any of the first three pitching matchups beside Milwaukee in game one.
 

Yep. Henderson v Rasmussen should be a good matchup for us.

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, thammondwis said:

The more I think about it, the more it looks like a desperation move for a team that thinks the're outmatched.

I couldn’t disagree more. 

I think they’re just giving their best two starters one more day  of rest.

It’s not like Martinez is a bum, and Misiorowski has not been unbeatable lately. 

[ToolShed55]

We're the best team in baseball. We've beaten multiple Cy Young winners this year. Ras is as good as many of those pitchers, but the Rays NEED him to win his starts. 

They are adjusting to our lineup in the way we used to do to other teams. 

 

We're the daddy, now. Let's go and prove it!

 

23.5 hours to go...

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I floated the idea of the Brewers doing something like this in the WS open thread. It honestly makes sense to me, and it does put extra pressure on the Brewers. As someone said, you lose Game 1, and now you're looking down the barrel of their two best starters in the next two games.

The good news is, I don't think the G2, G3 matchups are lopsided. Gasser-Peralta is two guys both pitching great. Rasmussen-Henderson is their best vs. our second-best. It also decreases the chances Freddy goes out of the bullpen. 

Honestly, all of these games feel like coin flips to me, maybe the Brewers with small edges, based mostly on the bullpen, adding up to an overall situation in the range of 55-45. 

I don't think this move is going to make or break anything. It's a play buy a day for guys who have worked hard (two days for Freddy) and maybe throw some pressure on us/disrupt the gameplan. I don't think the psychological part will work. 

To the extent that Martinez is less likely to go 6 or 7 complete, it also means Tampa might need more outs from their bullpen in Game 1. That's a big drawback to this one. If Martinez pitches great, but only goes 5, that still might be a net win for us in a 6 or 7 game series. Knock on effects happen when the pen has get stretched out of the gate. 

 

[thammondwis]

2 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I floated the idea of the Brewers doing something like this in the WS open thread. It honestly makes sense to me, and it does put extra pressure on the Brewers. As someone said, you lose Game 1, and now you're looking down the barrel of their two best starters in the next two games.

The good news is, I don't think the G2, G3 matchups are lopsided. Gasser-Peralta is two guys both pitching great. Rasmussen-Henderson is their best vs. our second-best. It also decreases the chances Freddy goes out of the bullpen. 

Honestly, all of these games feel like coin flips to me, maybe the Brewers with small edges, based mostly on the bullpen, adding up to an overall situation in the range of 55-45. 

I don't think this move is going to make or break anything. It's a play buy a day for guys who have worked hard (two days for Freddy) and maybe throw some pressure on us/disrupt the gameplan. I don't think the psychological part will work.  

 

On the flip side you are essentially conceding 2 games.  Which means you have to win 4 of the remaining 5.  That puts pressure on your team to win GM 2&3. If it ends in 6 Peralta only pitches 1 game.

[owbc]

44 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I floated the idea of the Brewers doing something like this in the WS open thread. It honestly makes sense to me, and it does put extra pressure on the Brewers. As someone said, you lose Game 1, and now you're looking down the barrel of their two best starters in the next two games.

The good news is, I don't think the G2, G3 matchups are lopsided. Gasser-Peralta is two guys both pitching great. Rasmussen-Henderson is their best vs. our second-best. It also decreases the chances Freddy goes out of the bullpen. 

Honestly, all of these games feel like coin flips to me, maybe the Brewers with small edges, based mostly on the bullpen, adding up to an overall situation in the range of 55-45. 

I don't think this move is going to make or break anything. It's a play buy a day for guys who have worked hard (two days for Freddy) and maybe throw some pressure on us/disrupt the gameplan. I don't think the psychological part will work. 

To the extent that Martinez is less likely to go 6 or 7 complete, it also means Tampa might need more outs from their bullpen in Game 1. That's a big drawback to this one. If Martinez pitches great, but only goes 5, that still might be a net win for us in a 6 or 7 game series. Knock on effects happen when the pen has get stretched out of the gate. 

 

I would also say that how these guys pitched against the short handed Yankees and the bad Guardians offense is not a predictor of how they will do against us. 

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

It’s not like Martinez is a bum, and Misiorowski has not been unbeatable lately. 

Martinez shut us out over 5 innings back in March before allowing a two-run HR to Contreras in the sixth, back in March.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

4 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Martinez shut us out over 5 innings back in March before allowing a two-run HR to Contreras in the sixth, back in March.

I had forgotten that this is the same Nick Martinez who pitched for the Reds in 24 and 25. We've seen a lot of him. He's had mixed results. Mostly, it's either quality start or complete blowup. Career ERA of 4.4 vs. Milwaukee.

Wild Bill: 5 for 19 with 2 HR

Yeli: 4 for 16 with 1 HR

Turang: 4 for 16 with 1 HR

Mitchell: 4 for 12

Frelick: 4 for 13 with 1 HR

Chourio: 2 for 9 with 1 HR

Vaughn: 1 for 8 with 1 HR

Ortiz: 1 for 9

Sanchez: 3 for 7 with 1 HR

Hamilton: 0 for 3

Bauers: 1 for 5

One thing about the pitchers the Rays will throw at us this series is we'll be familiar with their stuff.

[thammondwis]

29 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Martinez shut us out over 5 innings back in March before allowing a two-run HR to Contreras in the sixth, back in March.

If the 7 games were all Miz vs Martinez which pitcher would you take?

[thammondwis]

2 minutes ago, thammondwis said:

If the 7 games were all Miz vs Martinez which pitcher would you take?

100 out of 100 would take Miz, unless his mom was one of them😂

[Brewers Downunder]

If the Rays win game 1 the decision will be regarded as a masterstroke.

If however the Brewers win game 1........