I know few if any will agree with me, but I would shop Peralta to see if there is someone out there who believes his ERA. Keri talked about how lucky Peralta has been in his last power ranking for Grantland: http://grantland.com/features/mlb-the-30-astros-indians-braves-brewers-corey-kluber/ He assumes Peralta is lucky this year but his strand rate this year (76%) is more in line with league average(73%) this year than last year(66%). Given that Peralta is a heavy groundball pitcher I find it easier to buy this year's numbers than last year's though the truth is probaly somewhere in between. Peralta is the type of pitcher I would expect to outperform his FIP. Looking at his MiLB stats he pretty consistently did.