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Everything posted by LouisEly
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Of the 26 3B with at least 350 PAs last year, McGehee ranked 17th in OPS. If you subscribe to the theory that OBP is more valuable than OPS, McGehee ranked higher than that. In fact, McGehee had the 2nd highest OBP of any 3B in the majors last year. It may have been inflated by an artificially high BABIP over part of a season, but 680 PAs is a pretty large sample. His SLG was down, but so was baseball as a whole. Playing in Japan has helped several major leaguers, so it's not unheard of for someone to play there and learn to make a few adjustments. Point being, McGehee was at least an average 3B offensively last season. So he had some value; the question is what is it worth. Would you pay a league-average 3B $2M or Ramirez an additional $10M for a season? I'd say that McGehee would be a good risk at a cheap contract ($2M or less), as it would free up $8M to be invested elsewhere (bullpen, middle infield, etc.) to improve the team. I wonder where Fiers ranked in the poll. He had a heckuva comeback season; a half-season, but his half-season was worth more in WAR than McGehee's full season.
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How do we turn this sad franchise around?
LouisEly replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Add to that Mike Jones, and Melvin saw the tail end of Neugebauer's and JM Gold's careers. However, I don't know if it was so much their deliveries as it was how many innings/pitches those guys threw their first full professional seasons. I think the evidence is starting to mount that it isn't deliveries so much that cause the injuries as it is a significant increase in workload from one year to the next. -
The big one is bullpen lefties. Gorzelanny and Duke filed for free agency, no guarantee either will be back. With Gorzy's injury last year he couldn't go back-to-back games so maybe they don't want him back if he isn't healthy. I'm wondering if they have the money to sign Asdrubel Cabrera. A switch-hitter who can spell Segura against tough righties and Gennett against tough lefties. Or send Segura to AAA for a year to refine his approach and have Cabrera be the starter (with Gomez/Herrera replacing Gennett against tough lefties). Having Lind against all of the NL Central starting RHP and upgrading Segura to Cabrera will make a big difference. Remember, neither of the World Series teams this year won 90 games in the regular season. Lind + Cabrera + a healthy Braun + another year of experience for Peralta, Davis, Gennett, Nelson, Jeffress + upgrading Estrada with Fiers should add at least six more wins even factoring in a slight decline for Ramirez and Lohse.
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I wonder if Bosio is going to stick around there. If not, would be nice to have him here. He's done some nice work turning around some pitchers there. Arrietta never did anything in Baltimore, but he's turned him around very nicely. Add to that what he did with Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks has looked great so far, developing Rondon and Strop... I think he is one of the better pitching coaches in the game.
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Adam Lind acquired from Toronto for Marco Estrada
LouisEly replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
'stache, remember that the NL Central is, and the Cardinals in particular, very RHP-dominant. Not concerned that Lind doesn't hit lefties because the Brewers don't face many of them. I'm sick of seeing the Brewers get stymied by tough RHP, namely Wainwright, Miller, Lynn, and Wacha (and Rosenthal, Motte, Martinez, etc.). Add to that Cole, Morton, Volquez, and Worley of the Pirates; Cueto, Latos, Simon, and Leake of the Reds; Arrietta and Hendricks of the Cubs... 'stache, we need LH bats to win in this division right now. And Lind is a relatively cheap one, much cheaper than LaRoche would have been and that's assuming he would have signed with the Brewers and not some other team. Lucroy and/or Rogers will be his platoon parter, but given how many RH starting pitchers there are in the division that won't be very often. -
How do we turn this sad franchise around?
LouisEly replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Giants, whether on purpose or not, were smart enough to draft/sign a good LH/RH balance in their lineup. Sandoval, Belt, Crawford, Panik, Pagan... helps keep you from getting stymied by tough RHP. -
Brewers Hire Ray Montgomery
LouisEly replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
First choice would be someone from St. Louis who can/will bring a few folks with him. I'm not sold that they are the best in the business, but they are very good and when you can weaken a primary competitor it's worth extra. The Blue Jays have done some good work finding high upside talent late in the first and in the 2nd-5th rounds so I wouldn't mind someone from their org either. Not sure about the Dodgers. The Brewers need someone who is good at drafting, and I don't know that the Dodgers have been that great. Yes they hit on Seager (#18 overall) and Joc Pederson (not sure if they had to throw a ton of money at him to get him to sign) but other than that haven't really did well. If you think the Brewers 2009 draft was bad, look at the Dodgers that year; other than Pederson they didn't get much from their 2009-2011 drafts. -
How are his grades? OK State is known as one of the easier D-1 schools to get into academically. UW lost football recruit Craig Evans from Sun Prairie because he couldn't get into UW but could get into Michigan State, the easiest school in the Big 10 to get into academically.
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We were two wins away from the World Series in 2011. We would have been in if just a small handful of things broke our way. People need to have a bit of perspective. What the Royals have shown is this. A superior bullpen can lead a team to a championship. These. The Brewers had home field advantage in the 2011 NLCS. That says that Melvin did his job that year - they won the NL Central over 162 games. The Cardinals showed that you need a great bullpen in the playoffs to win and not necessarily a good rotation. None of their starters in the 2011 NLCS lasted beyond the 5th inning. No one can say that the Cardinals had great starting pitching in that series. But they won because they shut down the Brewers with their bullpen, and their manager knew when to use his bullpen and who to use. Like someone else said, when K-Rod, Smith, and Thornburg were lights-out the Brewers did well and they won games late. When they struggled and Thornburg got hurt the Brewers struggled. Because of the long season, baseball is as much psychological as it is physical, and the psychological toll of losing games late because of the bullpen (and riding the emotional high of winning games late) has a big impact on a team over the course of 162 games.
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Bryce Harper (BR) WAR last two seasons combined: 4.5 Carlos Gomez (BR) WAR last two seasons combined: 13.7 [sarcasm]Of course the mayor of Toronto wouldn't make that trade, he's high on crack.[/sarcasm]
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The rumblings I hear are that he has rubbed a lot of people the wrong way and they don't particularly care for his attitude. Not quite the immaturity of Lawrie but not that different either. Supposedly he's got a bit of the "entitled young athlete" syndrome and a number of people in the organization won't be sad to see him go. He's not particularly healthy for a young player either, having missed 106 games over the last two seasons. Both of those things lessen his value a bit. While not a FA until 2019, he is arby eligible in 2016 and will get expensive quickly. Gomez right now is the better player, and if they are in win-now mode then they might be motivated to move him to make their run over the next two years.
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While I'm glad the Bucks took a flyer on Marshall, I hope people don't have too high of expectations. He's on his fourth team in three years. He was waived twice, once by Washington and by the Lakers at the end of last year. If you get waived by a 27-55 team and you make close to league minimum, that's not a good sign.
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Off season: Gallardo for Napoli?
LouisEly replied to monkeyman343434's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Go back and read what I wrote. I asked if you had seen the ESPN 30 for 30 film about Fernando Valenzuela. If you have seen the film, you will understand what I am talking about. The Hispanic community HATED the Dodgers because of how many Hispanics were evicted, many with force, from Chavez Ravine to make room for Dodgers stadium. Hispanics didn't go to Dodgers games until Fernando arrived - cultural identity is so important that Fernando, because he is Mexican, turned an entire community of Mexicans/Hispanics from Dodgers haters into Dodgers fans because he is Mexican. That is what the film is about. Watch it and you will understand why Gallardo would have added value to a team in the Southwest. -
Weeks was the #2 overall pick in 2003 and has by far the highest career WAR of any of the top six picks in the 2003 draft, and the sixth highest career WAR of any of the 37 first-round selections that year. No one from that first round has a career WAR (according to B-R) >26 and Weeks is at 12.3. He was a good player and a good pick in a pretty lousy draft. Go figure - the year the Brewers get the #2 overall pick in the draft is one of the worst drafts in recent history talent-wise. No Justin Verlander, Byron Buxton, or Kris Bryant there. That's Brewers luck for you.
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I wonder if Toronto is going to be all-in in 2015. Buehrle is in the last year of his deal, Lind has team options the next two years, and Dickey, Bautista, and Encarnacion all have team options in 2016. In this article their GM hints that he will "consider trade offers for established arms". The Jays are interesting. Wouldn't be surprised if Weeks lands there as a FA if they do in fact go for it. Unlikely they pick up the options for Morrow and Rasmus, freeing up $15M. 1) Given this, would they be a potential market for Kyle Lohse? Perhaps they don't want to rely on a couple of 22-year-olds in Sanchez and Norris to fill that 5th spot and let them develop in AAA for a year. Unlikely the Brewers get either of those in return, but maybe Nolin is the odd man out being stuck behind those two, Stroman, and Hutchinson, and is the guy the Brewers can get in return. 2) If they really want to go for it, would they be interested in adding A-Ram? This would allow them to move Lawrie to 2B if they don't land a 2B in FA. If they do land a 2B in FA... maybe Lawrie is the guy they get in return for A-Ram? Unlikely Melvin & Co. want him back, but it would solve the 3B situation for a few years. 3) Or do the Jays feel they can cover DH and thus Adam Lind is expendable, and in go-for-it move for both teams they swap Lohse for Lind? He doesn't hit lefties well, but the NL Central is stacked with RH SPs.
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Brewers to pick up Gallardo's 2015 option
LouisEly replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
1) In order to trade him, he needs to be under contract. B) Why would the Brewers let someone like Gallardo go without getting anything in return for him? He's only 28 years old and has never had any arm trouble in his career. -
Attanasio normally addresses the players in the clubhouse on the final day of the season but admitted he saw no point to doing so Sunday after watching his team fold like a picnic chair. "This will be the first time I don't because I'm just too unhappy, and what's the point of another meeting to dwell on things?" he said. "I'm going to talk to some players individually. I've started that already and I'll finish that today." Mark A. talking to some players individually - interesting. Wondering if it is to address their heart, their performance (why they swing at so many pitches outside of the zone), other players on the team and who needs to go, or to find out if RRR and the coaches are the right people to be leading them.
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Dumb (strategic weakness) and Dumber (failure to address it)
LouisEly replied to rickh150's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
It's hard to bench players when your bench is playing poorly, or when you have very little bench because of injuries or extra guys in the bullpen. -
How do we turn this sad franchise around?
LouisEly replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The goal is to win a championship, not to appear in and lose a NLCS or ALCS once every few decades. I can identify with this. If you go back to 2007, when Braun was ROTY, Prince was coming into his own, Hardy looked like an MVP candidate, and Hall, Weeks, Hart, etc. looked like rising stars. The rotation featured Sheets in his prime at a time when Gallardo was starting to break into the league. 1) Until baseball has revenue sharing and salary caps on par with football, I cannot expect the first part of this. A $100M payroll is nice, but ultimately they can't compete with teams with $240M payrolls. A $100M payroll has little to no margin for error and creates unrealistic expectations that it must be run perfectly. No baseball executive team can run a team perfectly, but a bigger payroll allows you to make more mistakes and still compete. B) The problem is that in the second part of this there are only two pitchers on that list, and both got hurt in 2008 - one temporarily, one permanently. Unfortunately the Brewers had high draft picks before the now conventional wisdom of gradually increasing pitchers innings each year in the minors. The Brewers had talented young pitching in Jones, Rogers, Gold, and Neugebauer, but those guys put such a strain on their arms their second pro season when they were only 19 that they ultimately broke down. What should they do? 1) Assess whether Braun's thumb can be fixed. If yes, then focus on upgrading 1B and/or SS, put Nelson in the bullpen for a year, ride out Lohse/Gallardo/Ramirez for one last hurrah, then tear down in 2016. See if they can flip one of Lohse/Gallardo for a big upgrade at 1B. Try to put Weeks' salary towards Asdrubel Cabrera, a switch-hitter who can spell Segura against tough RHP and Gennett against tough LHP. 2) If Braun's thumb can't be fixed, then they are somewhat handcuffed and should explore what they can get for Lohse, Gallardo, Ramirez, and Gomez. If the return is adequate for 3 of the 4, or exceptional for 2 of the 4, then tear down now. But if the return is adequate for only 1 of them, then take their chances in 2015. No sense in doing a half-arsed tear-down and giving away players for nothing. 3) Throw a boatload of cash at an external replacement for Seid, preferably someone to promote from STL who will bring some of their guys with them so they can weaken their rival at the same time. This should probably be #1. -
I think you are asking the wrong question. You should be asking why they are in there to begin with. Is it a food source like nate mentioned? If so, removing the food source will cause the snakes to leave. How are they (or the food source) getting into the garage? Is there a hole in the garage? Is the door left open? I think the snakes being in there is a symptom, not the problem.
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This from another thread: What I would do is first trade Fiers maybe there is a GM out there dumb enough to think he is a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher. Fiers is more along a 4.00-4.50 ERA pitcher but lets see first if a GM out there will be dumb enough to part with a decent prospect for a #5 type pitcher. I'm really fascinated by people's opinions of Fiers and that they see him as a 5th starter. "But he doesn't throw 95" - There have been plenty of pitchers who throw low 90's (Fiers tops at 92 - I've watched ~90% of his pitches this season and saw him hit 92 plenty of times) who have been good for a long time. They exist. No, not all of them will be Maddux or Glavine, but they will come around and be quality #3 starters, maybe #2. I've watched Hellickson pitch 3 times and never saw him top 92. Kyle Lohse anyone? "But look at Estrada - the same thing will happen to Fiers" - Big difference between Fiers and Estrada. 1) Fiers has four pitches, Estrada only has three. Fiers has a cut fastball that Estrada doesn't throw. B) With the possible exception of his change, all of his pitches are better than Estrada's. His fastball is faster (92 vs 90), his curve is better, and as mentioned before Estrada doesn't have a cutter. "But when he is off he will give up home runs" - But he is rarely off. This year he has walked 32 in 163 innings between AAA and the majors. His HR rate this year (small sample, granted) is 0.6; his career HR rate - 212 innings pitching in a HR-friendly home park - is 1.0. Only 23 pitchers in all of baseball - less than one per team - have thrown as many innings as Fiers this year and have given up fewer HRs. "But he collapsed the last two months of 2012 when hitters figured him out" - He threw 50 more innings than either of the previous two seasons. And he only collapsed in September; one bad start in August at Colorado skewed his August numbers; his last two starts in August were quality starts and his last start gave up 1 ER in 7.1 innings. Take out the Colorado start and in his other five starts in August he had a 3.00 ERA. "But he got shelled in 2013" - Yes, in a total of three starts - small sample - when he was being bounced back and forth between starting and the bullpen and the majors and AAA. One start on 4/6, then to the bullpen, then to the minors on 4/16, then back on 5/12 to the bullpen, then 2nd start on 5/25, then another relief appearance and then his last start on 6/2. His mother was also gravely ill at the time and passed away later that season; kind of hard to focus with that going on. The more he pitches, the more September 2012 and his 2013 season look like the outlier.
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Since July 1st he has a line of .208/.307/.400/.707. I'd classify that as dismal, though still better than what the Brewers are getting. Way to cherry-pick your start date. If that was his line since 7/1, and his line the second half of the season is .778 OPS (as of right now, technically .773), then he is getting better.
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The biggest problem with game times is actually the expanded roster because it allows another situational bullpen arm. What slows down the game is all of the pitching changes to get that situational lefty-lefty/righty-righty matchup. Didn't have this 30 years ago when relievers went two innings facing both RH and LH batters. All of those changes by the Atlantic League sped up the game by only 8 minutes. So a game is 2:52 instead of 3:00 - big deal. That being said, one of the main reasons I like baseball is because it is a game of strategy. Thus I kind of like the way it is. But if there is a change to be made, it should be a "hitter is in the box and ready" clock and not this futzing around with batting gloves and crap between each pitch.
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Harper has kind of worn out his welcome in WAS as he has rubbed plenty of people the wrong way. He's obviously younger, but Gomez had superior production this year (similar last year) and is a superior defender. While Harper won't be arby eligible until 2016 he's about to get very expensive, and WAS is on the hook for three more years with Werth @$21M/year and five more years and $74M owed to Zimmerman so those guys are going to be much more difficult to trade than Harper and the return would be much less. Gomez is kind of at his peak right now. All-Star, Gold Glove... but we're getting kind of tired of his baserunning errors and constantly swinging for the fences, and in the second half of the season he only has a .716 OPS. Brewers take a little step back defensively but Harper would help provide some balance from the LH side. Washington gets something in return to help them compete for the playoffs the next two years; if they buy out LaRoche or Span they get nothing in return and would likely get little for Zimmerman or Werth in trade. Or, even better, LaRoche + Harper for Gomez + ? LaRoche is in the same situation, almost exactly, as Ramirez. Last year of deal with mutual option of $15M. If LaRoche declines, WAS makes him a qualifying offer and then no team wants to sign him and give up a draft pick so he sits and makes nothing like Drew and Morales this past season. So it is unlikely that LaRoche declines his option. But if Washington buys him out to make room at 1B for Zimmerman they get nothing in return. Washington's system is pretty barren because they've traded their prospects for Gonzalez, Fister, and Span so they could use some of the Brewers lower-level prospects to take over when those contracts are up. Not sure who the Brewers need to package in the trade (Wagner? D. Williams? T. Williams?), but this helps WAS get something valuable for Harper, rids them of LaRoche's salary, makes room for Zimmerman, and adds prospects they need in their farm system.
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A .778 OPS this season is not "dismal". Heckuva lot better than what the Brewers have gotten.

