LouisEly

I have wondered how many top draft picks, especially pitchers, flamed out in the minors because they were taking PEDs in college or high school and stopped when they started getting tested in the minors. According to an article I read today, 5% of high school athletes are using PEDs. I know people who played college baseball in the last decade and there definitely are college baseball players who use sterioids/PEDs. Take a look at the scouting report posted by battlekow/Sessile Fielder when Arnett was drafted. "95 mph fastball... maintaining his velocity into the late innings... outstanding stamina"... does that sound anything like his performance in the minors? I'm not accusing Arnett of using PEDs in college, but it wouldn't surprise me if this were the case. And if this were the case (or the case with Cody Adams... or with Max Walla...), maybe the Brewers didn't make bad picks at all - they just got duped.

This is spot-on. This is the 100th year of the Tour de France, which is going on right now, and it is making absolutely no headlines. The 100th year. And you hear zilch about it. Squat. Bubkus. The sport, in the US at least, is dead. But was it the actual blood doping or the zealousness with which cycling pursued Lance Armstrong that ruined cycling? Baseball needs to be careful of what they wish for. The zealousness with which they are pursuing this could come back to bite them in the arse big time. When Jan Ullrich admitted to blood doping two months ago it barely made the news. Not because it wasn't news - the guy is a former Tour de France winner - but because no one gives a damn about cycling anymore. Don't you think that most people in cycling right now are thinking, "Why didn't we just let Lance be?" Note: talk about zealousness - in 2006 officials raided Ullrich's house to collect DNA material while he was honeymooning with his new wife.

The best thing Braun can probably do right now is to allocate a significant part of his future salaries towards purchasing tickets for charitable organizations and schools. That way he both does some good for the community and gives some of the money back to the team. If he makes $10M next year he will lose about $4.5M to taxes leaving about $5.5M, so if he allocates about $4M for tickets he still nets about $1.5M (can probably deduct tickets given to charitable organizations but probably not schools) and in essence gives back 40% of his salary to the Brewers.

Thank you for this reminder. My game had gone to hell and haven't been able to break 100 in three years (living in LA and NY will ruin your game). I just started focusing on this and keeping my left elbow straight. Shot a 91 at Whispering Springs in my first full 18 of the year (tough greens there), and a week and a half ago got out for 9 after work and was +3 after 8 but the damn skeeters were so bad on #9 (got right in my face as I was swinging on my approach shot to the green - right at the 100 yard marker in the middle of the fairway; topped it 25 yards short of the green) they cost me what would have been the second time I finished under 40 for a 9.

"Here's the thing. Dude popped a negative, and then got off on a technicality. What was he SUPPOSED to say? " Well, I would think that by now people would have learned that if you test positive, and you did take something, you pull an Andy Pettite and say, "I had some nagging injuries and I tried taking a shortcut to heal faster. It was a mistake and I accept my punishment." Does anybody think anything of Pettite now years after he admitted taking something? My thoughts: 1) Can we have a separate thread where we can lift the swear ban? That's the only way I can express how I truly feel. B) I'm really, really, REALLY glad I no longer live in LA. 3) Think about this. Considering it happened in 2011, when the Brewers had as good of a shot at winning the World Series as they have had in almost 30 years, was Braun taking one for the team by appealing/lying/doing whatever he could to get out of it so that he wouldn't get suspended and the team thus had a better chance of making the World Series? Did Braun sacrifice his own integrity for the success of that team?

This has been on my radar, but I've been waiting for Washington to make a move in the standings; they are 7 games out of the NL East and six games out of the wild card though, so I don't know that Washington makes a move. Wednesday, July 24th John Axford Arizona Diamondbacks (My sleeper move is Cleveland going over the top for Gonzalez on that same day - DM has history with Cleveland)

I think Fear the Chorizo's post 45 minutes later was pretty prophetic.

Nope. Kings picks are early 2nd round, which are often preferred than late firsts because they are not guaranteed. Plus you get teams like the Mavs this year that tried to trade out of the first round to create more cap room to sign a free agent.

Every report so far that I am aware of that says that Braun will be suspended, is guilty, etc., has come from ESPN. What does ESPN have to gain? Ratings, which equal ad revenue. I don't think it's MLB that has an axe to grind with Braun, I think it is ESPN that has an axe to grind (making them look foolish the first time around, and they are trying to prove they were right all along) or is trying to profit off of him (higher ratings) or both. In no way, shape, or form I do consider ESPN to be impartial.

My money is on Josh Prince until Hellweg's spot comes up, then they activate Estrada or Burgos.

I'll dust off my soapbox too here, and you know where this is going. Hindsight is 20/20, but go back and look at that 2011 team. The only player on that team with more than 200 PA's over the age of 30 was Kotsay (255 PA's, hardly a key player); the only starter on the team over the age of 30 was Wolf, the only significant bullpen arms over 30 were Hawkins and Saito. This was a team that won 96 games with the core of the team under the age of 30; this was not an old team on the decline and the verge of breaking down. The holes on the team were clear - SS and 3B, and DM replaced a -0.5 WAR SS with a 1.7 WAR SS and replaced a -0.9 WAR 3B with a 2.7 WAR 3B (who performed to a 5.6 WAR). The move to sign Ramirez was a very rational one, it did not cost the team a draft pick, and those two moves should have yielded a 101-win team baseline allowing for plenty of regression at other positions including the loss of Fielder and still make the playoffs.

Don't know if anyone else caught this the other night after the Brewers telecast. It was a documentary that looked into the Brewers draft; nothing too in-depth (only a 1/2 hour show), confirmed some suspicions, and obviously they aren't going to include any specific comment about anyone the Brewers didn't draft, but it included some interesting dialogue as the draft was unfolding. It confirmed that Seid does have the final say, but DM was involved in the discussion. When they were at the 34th pick: BS: "I'll call the adviser as we got closer and see if there is any wiggle room. But we're OK with the guy that's below him because of signability of (can't make out what he said)." DM: "Devin Williams you think's gonna be there." BS: "I'd take him in a heartbeat." DM: "What's his signability? Has he told somebody?" BS: "He told people $2M. But Harvey (Kuehn Jr., Brewers scout) says he's signing." They then broke to some individual commentary from DM and Doug Reynolds, an East Coast crosschecker. DM: "He's not a player in the organization until he signs. We all know that you're not going to draft a player you think you're not going to sign. There's too much risk involved." Doug Reynolds: "For the Brewers we pretty much know because we have to sign our guys. There are some in the industry that will roll the dice a little bit, and say we think it's worth rolling the dice on this player and they may not sign him... But if your scouts do a good job you know exactly what you have to do to get them to sign, and where you should take them by, and what makes them happy... And if it doesn't fit for what we think about them, then we're not going to take him. But usually when we take a guy we're pretty certain we're signing him." DM: "This year's draft pick Devin Williams we had in our top 20 group... We still have time to talk about the player. In the end Bruce has to make that final call. But he can walk around the room and ask questions... but in the end Bruce has to feel comfortable with the player we're taking." Back to the draft room, still at the break between the first and second round: DM: "$1.3M is a good range for him. These guys are $200-$300K over, you can get that later on." (Sounds like referring to a couple of guys they were targeting who they think were in the $1.3-$1.4M range.) BS: "Those two guys, I think you just take those two guys... Williams especially. Special talent. Devin Williams, that's a special talent right there. That's the high risk, high reward type of guy we love." BS: "We're at 34. We gotta basically say, entice them to make sure he gets down to us. I would give him the extra couple hundred thousand. Right now I feel he's going in front of us." (Sounds like he was referring/inferring to call Devin's people and tell them the Brewers will go over slot for him, thus enticing him to say no to someone who calls and asks if he will sign for slot or less.) BS: "If he's not willing to move, I'm not wasting burning a pick on him (not sure who he was referring to). I see eight guys easy, maybe 9 or 10 (I like)." BS: "Minnesota makes me nervous on this one. He's their kind of player. They've taken a player in front of us a couple times." (Really curious who those guys were.) BS: "What's that, 28? (Referring to the #28 player on their board who was apparently still available at #47). Worst case scenario, but I'm not paying that. He's not that kind of guy. I like him, but I ain't paying him." (When Austin Wilson got picked) BS: "Boy, they went for some bats." At pick 51: BS: "Call the father, tell him he's in the mix with one other guy, there's a really good chance he'll get to us." When the Diamondbacks picked at #52, you could hear the announcement "Williams... Justin", you could see the draft room breath a sigh of relief. When the Phillies selected Knapp: BS: "Good, good. (Looks at someone) Devin Williams. Devin Williams. Harv, you got your guy." Interesting how they were talking about Williams all the bay back at #34. They said they had him in their top 20, so it is possible they may have taken him at #17 if they still had that pick. They said he wanted $2M, which is slightly less than slot value of #17; would they have given him $2M?

Honestly, last night I said to myself, "this is Ben Hendrickson with a 97 mph fastball". The realist in me looks at the numbers and thinks there is a lot of bad luck so far. He has a .417 BABIP, and of the 15 hits he has given up only two have been extra bases - both doubles. I looked at the numbers because I thought he hadn't given up any extra base hits. They aren't squaring him up at all - there have been a lot of bloop hits and grounders that are finding holes. Add this to the bad defense and there is still hope for him if he can find the strike zone. I don't like his delivery though - I was hoping he would be a little more over-the-top to take advantage of his height instead of coming from a 3/4 slot like he is.

Prado and Hill are both signed for three more years at $11M/year. No room for Davidson; wondering if Arizona is trying to push Davidson plus others and DM is pushing back and asking for Skaggs. Plenty of guys to toss in with Gallardo/Axford to Arizona to sweeten the pot. Take your pick of A-ball OFs not named Taylor, take your pick of lower lever college RHP (Gagnon, Goforth, Magnifico, Wagner).

Wow, what a pitching day for the organization from top to bottom, Lohse to Lopez.

Baltimore activated Brian Roberts off of the DL yesterday. They are not trading for Weeks.

What the heck happened on Francisco's shot? I could have sworn it was crushed off the bat. While watching the replay it looked like it took a complete nose dive at the warning track and came down like it was a fly ball. Must have had some serious top spin on it.

I would hope the Brewers would get a lot more for Gallardo than two 27-year-old pitchers each sporting >7.00 ERA and 1.700 WHIP. Pretty cheap return for Feldman, even if he is going to be a free agent. At least he's off the market; supply reduced for remaining buyers.

The job of the pitching coach is to analyze and fix mechanics. Many slumps are the result of small mechanical faults that result in decreased control/accuracy and tipping pitches (hitters know what's coming); it's not difficult to occasionally get mechanics out of whack over the course of a long season. It's like a swing coach in golf. In-game the pitching coach assists with scouting reports on how to pitch certain hitters (you'll notice on some pinch hitters the pitching coach will come out to the mound). When things are going well the pitching coach doesn't have much to do. When things aren't going well the pitching coach should be analyzing video and watching bullpen/side sessions and getting hands-on. Thus the criticism of Kranitz - he's not fixing guys. They are regressing even though they are in their prime (Gallardo, Estrada) or their minor league performance projects better than their actual major league performance (Peralta, Fiers, Burgos).

Swap of relievers who were DFA'd - Dodgers get Marmol and international signing slot #4 ($209K) and Cubs get 34-year-old Matt Guerrier. Cubs pay $2M of what is owed to Marmol. Basically Cubs pay Dodgers to take Marmol and save ~$500K in salary in the deal, get no prospects. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/dodgers-cubs-swap-guerrier-marmol.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

And he's had damn good reasons for waiting, namely having a 96-win team and home field advantage in the NLCS two seasons ago with a -0.5 WAR SS and a -0.9 WAR 3B, both of whom he upgraded with 1.7 WAR SS and a 2.7 WAR 3B (who performed to a 5.6 WAR) which should have yielded a 102-win team and allowed for a 10 win regression at other positions and still make the playoffs. You don't blow up a 96-win team with every key player under the age of 30. Back to Gallardo, if the D-Backs think Gallardo has added value because they can market him to the Hispanic/Mexican community (which they can't do with Samardzjia) then have at him. Remember, Melvin once said "I'm not motivated" to trade (IIRC) Overbay, so when he says he "needs to be blown away" we can't take that as "I'm not trading him". Cahill just went on the DL so now may be the time. With Prado and Hill under contract for big money for three more years there might not be room for Davidson. If the D-Backs won't give up one of Skaggs/Bradley, then a package of Davidson/Holmberg/Chafin might do it. And Eaton might only be 5'8", but he has a career OBP in the minors of .446 (and .382 in his small sample in the majors); unlike the 5'8" prospect on the Brewers earlier this season, Eaton walks. If the Brewers trade Aoki, Eaton and his OBP would look real nice at the top of the Brewers lineup.

Marmol was DFA'd right before the start of the Brewers series, so this doesn't really compare to shopping Axford/K-Rod. Odds are that multiple teams put in a waiver claim on him and the Cubs are negotiating getting something for him. Don't expect to be wowed by the return; might be just cash or a low-level middling prospect changing hands since he was DFA'd.

The reason that trades haven't happened yet is not because the sellers aren't trying to sell, it's because the buyers aren't ready to buy yet. Nothing ever happens until at least the All-Star break. The Sabathia trade didn't happen until the All-Star break and that was considered an early trade; usually it's mid-July when things start happening. Buyers don't buy before mid-July because they aren't sure what their needs are and if they can contend; they may think one thing but an injury to a key player or two in June or early July may change that. A team isn't going to mortgage their future in June to suddenly have a couple of key players get injured in July and now their playoff chances go down the drain and they've lost their prospects. Have patience people, don't get your undies in a bundle because nothing has happened yet. Weeks, A-Ram, and Lohse will very likely clear waivers too, allowing them to be traded in August.

Results are in! Thanks to everyone who contributed. Scoring was 25 points for #1 ranking, 24 for #2, etc., to 1 point for #25. Number in parenthesis is total number of points: #1) Jimmy Nelson (416 points, 12 first place votes) #2) Johnny Hellweg (379, 2 first place votes) #3) Tyrone Taylor (365, 2 first place votes) #4) Orlando Arcia (357, 1 first place vote) #5) Hunter Morris (320) #6) (tie) Mitch Haniger (308) #6) (tie) Ariel Pena (308) #8) Taylor Jungmann (299) #9) Tyler Thornburg (288) #10) Victor Roache (287) #11) Devin Williams (265) #12) Clint Coulter (240, lowest ranked player on every ballot) #13) Scooter Gennett (224, highest ranked player not on all ballots - not on two) #14) Jed Bradley (161, not on one ballot) #15) Tucker Neuhaus (159, not on one ballot) #16) Jorge Lopez (140, not on two ballots) #17) Drew Gagnon (138, lowest ranked player on all but one ballot) #18) Hiram Burgos (136) #19) Michael Reed (98, lowest ranked player on all but two ballots) #20) Khris Davis (94) #21) Caleb Gindl (78) #22) Kentrail Davis (70) #23) Tyler Wagner (64) #24) Damien Magnifico (58) #25) (tie) Jose Pena (37) #25) (tie) Chris McFarland (37) Next four are Hall (33), Garfield (30), Goforth (26), and Rizzo (21, only on two ballots). Biggest surprise for me was how many ballots Khris Davis was left off of (five). His AA career line is .298/.384/.488 and AAA line is .263/.367/.458; OBP has consistently been .100 higher than his BA. Not necessarily a top 10 guy, but given what he has done in the upper levels I expected him to be somewhere on most if not all lists.