LouisEly

I really wish the NBA had some type of free agent loss compensation system like MLB. Make a qualifying offer and if that player leaves you get that team's first round pick, make a minimum offer and get that team's second round pick, protect top 10 picks. Would make it much easier to let Jennings/Ellis/Redick walk. The Bucks are in a bind because if they let those players walk they get nothing in return except cap space, and good luck trying to get quality free agents to come to Milwaukee.

Ellis/Punto/Schumacher wouldn't stop the Dodgers from acquiring Weeks. The youngest of that group is 33 and the highest OPS of that group is .669. Weeks would be a significant upgrade there.

5. A-Ram - DM doesn't like to fill a hole by creating another, may feel one of Green/Francisco could fill in adequately next year 4. Axford - has reasons for his slumps (last year - birth of first child, this year - WBC), DM may be afraid of selling low 3. Aoki - kind of a luxury at this point, the Brewers are high on Schafer and have others (Gindl, Davis) who could step in 2. Gonzalez - the oldest bullpen arm, several teams need LHRP and he has experience closing 1. K-Rod - not under contract or control like Axford or Henderson, low risk for a team acquiring him I have a feeling that DM/Mark A. will really have to be wowed to trade Gallardo.

Yeah, Hart was the one saying he would be back by early May. The Brewers were saying June. The silver lining is that because he will miss the whole year the Brewers should be able to recover 80% of his salary through insurance, only costing the Brewers a net of $2M.

Gallardo has the Orioles on his no-trade list. Not saying he won't waive it, but he might want something for it, which would then mean you get less for him. That was two years ago when the Orioles were coming off of five consecutive years of 69 or fewer wins. Might change his tune now that they are contenders.

It was a coin flip between the Tigers and Orioles for #5. Benoit seems to be handling the closers role just fine, but upon further review don't have any reliable setup man behind him. Albuquerque is just nasty, but can't be relied upon to find the strike zone (only guy I think I've ever seen who has a higher BB/9 than H/9). They have some pitching to give back in Jake Thompson and Casey Crosby. Don't know why people want Porcello. He's eligible for arby next year and a free agent in 2016. Don't want to pay $8M/year for a young Jeff Suppan for two years. Yankees are trying to keep A-Rod out all year so they can recoup most of his salary in insurance - they can get $22M back. De Paula is interesting, but I have no interest in acquiring a low-level OF as a key piece of any trade. Got plenty of those in Taylor, Haniger, and Roache. Yankees are just a mess right now, and I don't see them acquiring Ramirez with A-Rod and Teixeira still under contract for several more years.

Valverde was still the closer in year 4 (and a much better ERA so far) and only got 4.7M so I would not expect Axford to get more than $5M as a setup man. An interesting comp is J.J. Putz; he had a rough 2009 (may have been hurt - only pitched 29 games), re-established himself as a set-up man (with 3 saves) with the White Sox in 2010 (2.83 ERA, 1.037 WHIP), and signed a four year deal with Arizona to be their closer that averages $5.5M/year. Grilli established himself as a setup man in PIT in 2011 and 2012 (2 saves in 2012, 2.91 ERA) and got a 2 year deal averaging $3.4M. Jim Johnson as a super 2 and closer got $6.5M. Balfour was a setup man with TB and got a 3-year deal with OAK averaging $4M/year. If Axford isn't closing he isn't going to get elite closer money.

5. Orioles - DFA'd Garcia, Gausman could likely use more seasoning in the minors, and Bundy is going to have TJ surgery. Supposedly in hot pursuit of Nolasco. Possible spot for Gallardo, but I don't know if they have enough to give back - likely won't part with Gausman with Bundy undergoing TJ. Schoop also has a stress fracture in his back and is out for another month. Doubt they would give up Gausman, but a package of Eduardo Rodriguez (20 yr old LHP in A+) and Matusz (see if they can make him a starter again) might be tempting. Not sure if they would take on Lohse. Bundy might make an interesting PTBNL in a package for Gallardo as Bundy won't pitch for a year. 4. Giants - their OF has been terrible, particularly in OBP. Aoki would fit really nicely at the top of their order. And don't underestimate the value of a good Asian player in San Francisco (Asians make up 34% of the population of San Francisco, and 20% of the 9-county Bay area). Have pitching to give back (Kickham, Stratton, Blackburn, Agosta) and a power 3B prospect (Duvall). 3. Indians - match up almost perfectly as far as their needs and MIL's depth; they have nothing for LHRP, their closer hasn't pitched well and may be in legal trouble, Brantley is sporting a .696 OPS in LF and they have nothing for upper level OF prospects. Gonzalez and Khris Davis would be a perfect fit for them; the only question is if the Indians believe they can compete with the Tigers. Bauer is likely off the table, but they have some pitching to give back (Salazar, Brown) and future 2B (Ramirez). 2. Diamondbacks - their closers have struggled (Bell, Putz) and they are rumored to be interested in Gallardo. Could be a blockbuster here of Gallardo + K-Rod/Axford, and their prospects match up well with the Brewers needs. One of Skaggs/Bradley plus Holmburg & Chafin would be a nice return for Gallardo/K-Rod; the Brewers could also be interested in Davidson (3B) or Eaton (if they trade Aoki). Even if Gallardo isn't traded, I think there's a good chance they could acquire K-Rod or Axford from MIL, and Holmburg or Chafin would be a nice return. 1. Dodgers - discussed in the other thread, payroll is not a concern and have needs at 3B and closer, maybe 2B and SP. Have pitching to give back (Lee, Magill, Stripling, Reed, Thomas), a future SS/3B (Seager), and MIL could be interested in Pederson if they move Aoki or someone wows them for Gomez.

Highly unlikely that he gets a raise. He doesn't have the comps to get more than $5M - he is a setup man this year (no saves), and setup men don't get $5M/year. He had a bad 2011 on top of that so what comps does he have to support $8M/year?

[sarcasm]Alright, who had Josh Prince with only seven home runs before the end of June?[/sarcasm]

I could be wrong, but I don't believe you can trade a guy on the DL. Billingsley is on the 60-day; not sure if a guy on the 60 can be a PTBNL. If the Dodgers want to balance salaries I'd much rather take Lilly and Uribe as their contracts are up at the end of the year. Billingsley is only owed $15M after this year ($12M for 2014 and $3M buyout of 2015) so that wouldn't be the worst thing, if the prognosis on his shoulder is good and the Dodgers send at least $3M to cover his buyout. If the Dodgers take Lohse instead of Gallardo, send back enough young pitching, and the Brewers can trade Aoki for one of the Red Sox 3B prospects I might be persuaded to buy low on Ethier. His contract scares me and he's signed through age 35, but he's consistently put up a >.800 OPS in a pitcher's park and adds LH power and balance to a RH-heavy lineup; put him in Miller Park and I think his SLG goes up significantly. An OF of Braun, Gomez, and Ethier might be the best the Brewers have ever had.

"It can't be more than 112!" http://content8.flixster.com/photo/91/99/19/9199198_ori.jpg

Since May 15th: 18.1 IP, 12 H, 2 XBH (both doubles), 0 ER, 7 BB, 18K, 0.00 ERA Since April 13th: 29.2 IP, 27 H, 5 XBH (2 HR, 3 2B), 6 ER, 11 BB (1 IBB), 31 K, 1.85 ERA

At 6'9" he comes in at much more of a downward plane than, say, a 5'11" Thornburg. If he's utilizing his height like he should (and not throwing sliders from a 3/4 slot like Loe) that downward plane should generate a lot of ground balls, and his 1.95 GO/AO seems to validate that. If he's generating a lot of ground balls the BABIP should not rise much as he moves up because he will have better defense behind him and better defensive positioning due to more thorough scouting of opponents. Thornburg strikes a lot of guys out, but because he's 5'11" he doesn't have that downward plane and when he leaves pitches up (which he has a tendency to do) they get hit hard. With Hellweg even his mistakes that he leaves up will have a downward plane to them, and like JB mentioned, his velocity allows him to get away with some mistakes. Interesting to note that against LH hitters he has walked 30 in 34.2 IP, but against RH hitters he has only walked 14 in 42 innings. Is it fear of LH hitters?

Better than 132 curveballs

Last call... ... if you don't want to make your list public you can PM it to me.

The Mad Bahamian is back!! I want to believe in Drew Gagnon, but it hurts that just a few picks later Cincinnati selected a college pitcher out of Rice named Tony Cingrani.

Lucroy's defensive WAR is 0.2, Brantley's defensive WAR is 0.3. When I expand to 150 PAs, Lucroy is 10th in OPS out of 29 catchers, Brantley is 26th out of 35 LFs.

Weird stat of the day. Lucroy has a .783 OPS as a C and has a WAR of 0.8 Micheal Brantley has a .693 OPS as a LF and has a WAR of 1.3 This is why I don't put a tremendous amount of stock in WAR.

I just edited my list (feel free to do that up through 6/25), and made a comment that I think a lot of people, myself included, undervalue Khris Davis. While he has gotten off to a slow start this year, his OBP is still >.100 higher than his BA. I was shocked to see that he had a .451 OBP in 2012 (316 PAs) and a career OBP of .393; he also has a good BB:K ratio and even though he is struggling this year still has a 27:39 BB:K ratio.

And Burgos only went one inning in his rehab start. That likely ain't good.

McCollum is undersized for a shooting guard - he's not a PG. He also put up his numbers in the Patriot League, and missed the second half of this past season with an injury. Erick Green is about the same size (maybe slightly taller), has a much better assist:turnover ratio, and put up his numbers in the ACC. I'd rather have Green than McCollum. McCollum is the one guy I don't want in the first round. Franklin shot 28% from 3 this year, and 32.5% the year before. Not my idea of a good shooting guard.

I understand the concern that Gomez's performance so far has been a bit of a mirage and that the Brewers should sell high. That being said, I think other GMs are thinking the same thing - his offensive greatness hasn't been sustained for long enough to give up a lot for him. Melvin has said that you can get more for position players in the offseason than at the trade deadline; it's a bit of a gamble, but I think if Gomez can mostly sustain his performance even with some dropoff (>.850 OPS) over the rest of the season I think they can get a much better haul for him in the offseason. That being said, considering Gomez's age, relatively friendly contract, and defensive ability, someone would have to give up a haul for me to trade him. I do like where you are going with Arizona though. Eaton and Pollock are two of their top prospects and both are ML ready so I don't think they are looking to acquire a CF. But one of K-Rod/Axford/Henderson for Holmberg or Chafin would be nice.

I got the other hyphenated guy, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but he seems to be rising according to mocks and may not be available. (On a side note, what happens when someone with a hyphenated last name marries or has a child with someone else who has a hyphenated last name?) Larkin would be a good choice if Pope is gone. Bullock, if he can stick at SG, intrigues me - he has improved his shooting % every year and shot 43% from 3 last year. Sleeper pick is Erick Green, but some have him available in the second round when the Bucks pick; if he is that would be great. Like Southerland in the 2nd if Green isn't there, also like Michael Snaer - supposedly a very good defender, and also a decent 3-point shooter. While the Bucks have plenty of tall men, they aren't physically strong and get pushed around, thus the 6'9", 255, Alex Oriakhi wouldn't be a bad 2nd round pick.

I don't think that is what Oxy is getting at. I think he is thinking along the lines of this example: Cleveland has nothing for LHRP, and their closer is on the DL and may be in legal trouble; Mike Gonzalez would give them the LHRP they need and he also has experience closing. Cleveland also has Michael Brantley and his .701 OPS playing LF, and they have no upper level OF prospects. Khris Davis would likely give them an upgrade in LF if given regular playing time over Brantley (at the minimum a good platoon partner). An upgrade who is team/cost controlled for several years would be very valuable to a lower payroll team. Those two won't get Lindor or Bauer, but what Oxy is getting at is that in this example the Brewers could get better prospects by including Khris Davis with Gonzalez than just trading Gonzalez alone. Khris Davis is kind of the prime example here, but others like Morris, Gennett, Gindl, Ke. Davis, Gagnon, Burgos, or Fiers with a veteran could upgrade the quality of pitching or 3B prospect the Brewers get in return. Would be willing to package Haniger, Roache, or maybe Coulter if it could get stud pitching/3B prospects in return.