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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    They went from 10 to 8. I wouldn't call that thin. They aren't going to be playing 2-TE sets nearly as much as they did under Chryst - they'll be playing 3 WRs/1 TE predominantly. Rucci/Pugh/Dakovich/Seagraves/Nowakowski/Large have all seen game action. Sounds like Large is still out with injury, but that still leaves five.
  2. LouisEly
    I think it was an expiring asset trade. The Brewers knew that they weren't going to bring back Urias at ~$5M next year, and the delta between Urias and Monasterio/Toro/Miller is negligable, so the Brewers took an expiring asset and traded it for an asset with three option years remaining.
  3. LouisEly
    I wouldn't put much stock in the MLB top 30 prospects now. I don't think it has been fully re-ranked, other than just bumping up a few guys who are blowing up or changing organizations, since before the season. Moore is not #8, Small certainly is not #11, Mendez is not #13, Valerio is not #16, Perez is not #17, and Garcia is not #20, even without the draft picks slotting in. Blalock might be close to where he really is, but they're just slotting him into a new organization and not looking at the entire list.
  4. LouisEly
    Unless I missed something, the Reds only acquisition was LHRP Sam Moll from the A's. No SP acquisitions. Wonder what their fans are thinking.
  5. LouisEly
    He didn't have much if any time left to turn it around. As others have said, unlikely that the Brewers would have brought him back at $5M next year, so they got something for him and have three years of options on Blalock and plenty of 40-man spots if they want to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
  6. LouisEly
    I have been questioning if there is anything else...
  7. LouisEly
    That’s all true, but Canha still gets his because he has a tremendous sense of the strike zone. He rarely chases bad pitches. He makes a ton of contact when he does swing. A career double-digit walk rate makes sense given those skills. He strikes out more than you’d think given that rosy description of his plate discipline, but that’s just because he works a lot of deep counts. The total package is basically what you’d expect: solid on-base numbers, subpar slugging, and overall production somewhere between 10 and 20% better than average. Canha’s not a superstar, or even a star, but it’s hard to look at his results and see anything worse than a good bat.
  8. LouisEly
    The Brewers made it to game 7 of the NLCS in 2018 with Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra, and Brent Suter as their top starting pitchers. There will be life after Burnes and Woodruff. They will likely trade Burnes in the offseason for a haul, possibly Woodruff too. There is a path to a quick rebuild. There are many ways to get to the NLCS; in 2018 it was offense and a lockdown bullpen (Knebel, Hader, Jeffress).
  9. LouisEly
    Currently an absurd .515 OBP. Time to bump him up - and get him on the Matt McLain forearm strengthening program.
  10. LouisEly
    I was just going to ask who this guy is who has struck out 40 in 26 IP this year. For his career so far - 84.2 IP, 51 H, 59 BB (much better this year - only 3.8 BB/9), 124 K. Looks like he was signed in June of 2021, so he will have two more years (assume high-A and AA) before he needs to be added to the 40/protected from Rule 5.
  11. LouisEly
    The other thing that this trade means is that Renfroe is likely off the table as a low-cost RF upgrade.
  12. LouisEly
    No, Rowdy did not suck before he got injured. He had a .830 OPS on June 1st (and a .878 OPS as late as May 25th). Then he had a .442 OPS in June. Looks like he sucked after he got injured.
  13. LouisEly
    Between his offense and defense, I don't see a need to prioritize a 3B acquisition.
  14. LouisEly
    This. No way they stand pat - it's either trade Ohtani or be buyers.
  15. LouisEly
    No, my argument wins every time because you are making one very faulty assumption in your argument - that the same pitchers are being used for the same number of pitches for the same % of innings. More pitches thrown means more pitchers needing to be used in a game which means greater use of bad pitchers vs good pitchers. It's the same as adding additional bad bench hitters to the lineup; yes, you cannot have more than 9 hitters in a lineup, but the analogy is that your good hitters have fewer % of the team's at bats (just like your good pitchers have fewer % of the teams innings), meaning more at bats going to bad hitters, which results in less runs scored. You're very emotional right now. I suggest shutting down the computer, going for a walk, and coming back tomorrow.
  16. LouisEly
    Who cares if a "bat" can play defense? Bad defense makes pitchers throw more pitches. More pitches thrown means: More chances of a bad pitch that results in a hit (or HR), resulting in more runs given up Starters getting tired earlier in the game, resulting in more chances of a bad pitch being thrown, resulting in more chances of hits (or HRs) given up, resulting in more runs given up Relievers used earlier in games, resulting in more relievers being used over the course of the season, resulting in tired arms in the bullpen, resulting in more bad pitches being thrown, resulting in more chances of hits (or HRs) given up, resulting in more runs given up More runs given up increases the chance of losing games More pitches being thrown/pitchers being used increases the chance of pitchers getting injured, resulting in worse pitchers needing to be used to replace injured pitchers, resulting in more bad pitches being thrown... See #1
  17. LouisEly
    How's that been working out for San Diego? How many World Series have they been to?
  18. LouisEly
    He had a forearm injury - that's why he had a terrible June and a reason to believe he can improve. Let's not act like he's been terrible all year because that's patently false. Here's his OPS by month over the last two seasons (not including July 2023 as he only had 11 PAs): .442, .756, .886, .670, .844, .710, .788, .825, ..784 One of these sure looks like an outlier, and a reason to believe the forearm injury was legit, and a reason not to trade for a mediocre 1B such as Canha or Cron. Does he deserve criticism for trying to play through it? Hell yes, whether it's machismo or whatever, he should have told Counsell about it and sought treatment a lot earlier because trying to play through it cost his team. But history shows that he - when healthy - can provide just as much offense as anyone they can realistically acquire.
  19. LouisEly
    Leonhard is an analyst. For all we know, his job is to sit at home and break down film. It's really a nothing-burger until he's on the sidelines somewhere.
  20. LouisEly
    How much of that WAR is coming from OF vs. 1B? And as late as June 1st, Rowdy had a .830 OPS.
  21. LouisEly
    LHP often take longer to develop than RHP. I wouldn't read anything into him being 24/25 as far as prospect status and value. Given the likelihood of trading Burnes and Woodruff with Miley, Houser, and Lauer FAs after 2024 I highly doubt that they deal any of their upper minor league pitchers (Gasser, Rodriguez, Jarvis). I don't see them acquiring a starter, but if they do, more likely that they deal Henderson/Aquino/other A-ball pitchers.
  22. LouisEly
    Impressive. Plenty of reasons to be excited, but HS picks are high risk and sometimes don't make it past low-A.
  23. LouisEly
    I'll take the contrarian angle, and of the above mentioned players the one who I'd be most willing to part with is Chourio, simply for the reason that OF is where the Brewers haven't had any difficulty finding top prospects. It's a lot harder to find pitching and catching, and Frelick has shown that he's needed in Milwaukee. Now, it would have to be a helluva return for him, but I'm moving him before Mis, Quero, or Frelick. If I'm handicapping who is most likely to be traded in any significant deal: EBJ Zamora Mendez Lara Guilarte Baez
  24. LouisEly
    Turang's strikeout % (24%) is slightly above league average K% (22.6%) and his BB% (8.7%) is right there at league average (8.9%) which is good for a rookie. If those were a lot worse than league average I'd be more concerned. He needs two things - more experience against major league pitching and to get on the Matt McLain forearm strengthening program.
  25. LouisEly
    It's unlikely but possible that it's another Taylor Jungmann situation where they've been asking him to make certain adjustments and he has quietly been refusing. IIRC, that's why Jungmann never got another shot despite despite good numbers in AAA.
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