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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Even the more conservative Fangraphs WAR number sits at 0.9 WAR, which gives a 5-6 WAR full season. I'm curious what kind of packages people would have proposed for a 5 WAR SS with multiple years of control back in May.
  2. igor67
    Perhaps, but how much extra did they spend knowing that extra revenue was coming in? Ultimately 1.1 million is a small enough percentage of the total that you can easily balance that if you need to.
  3. igor67
    If they could pitch...
  4. igor67
    On the other hand this fits with the not trading for obvious candidates pattern
  5. igor67
    MLB has Burkhardt with 32 HRs, but 20 of those were at High Desert so that is a pretty big difference and it was his 4th minor league season, and he was drafted out of college so he was actually 26! that season. So not a prospect
  6. igor67
    Lara and Pratt putting on a show tonight
  7. igor67
    Alumni game afterwards
  8. igor67
    Maybe it was picking Leverage spots? Brewers have the second highest Leverage Index on all of their challenges at 1.23. Although Brewers opponents have challenged them in even higher Leverage situations at 1.28 (which is higher thane any single team). And teams have had about average success challenging the Brewers, while our challenge success is bottom third.
  9. igor67
    Odds of any particular deal are always low. I read this as Arnold being: just because we are interested in bigger names it doesn't mean you get to pillage the system.
  10. igor67
    It's OK the Miz will make a solid closer some day. If I had a large amount of time I'd love to rank prospect evaluators. Maybe he does OK with other teams, but I would guess Law is near the bottom at correctly rating Brewers over the last 20 years.
  11. igor67
    Interesting counter example. D-backs traded for Schilling in 2000 but missed the post season that year. Won World Series the next year though.
  12. igor67
    Do we know they just aren't stumped? Perhaps they find other unanswered questions more pressing at the moment? Maybe a little of both and they think other questions are more likely to yield results sooner. My point was not to suggest they shouldn't be trying to find ways of improving, just that it may be a hard problem to solve in a satisfying way.
  13. igor67
    Yes you could, but the point I'm trying to make is that this is not how people are trained to build models for other situations. AKA if you did that on a test you'd fail, because mathematically you can always just add more factors to get a better answer.
  14. igor67
    I'm not aware of one either and I think part of it is that people tend to over estimate how good the 7 game series at letting the best team win. Bill James worked up his log5 model to calculate head to head probabilities. It assumes team strength is equal to their winning percentage. So for example a .600 team with homefield advantage playing a .500 team in a 7 game series wins 80% of the time. Obviously using that approach at the moment with the Brewers and Dodgers nearly identical records and you would get close to a 50-50 split. So let's indulge a bit. Argument 1 the Brewers are playing over their heads. So let's bump them down from a .627% to merely a .600 team. Similarly in various ways people have suggested that the Dodgers just kind of cruise through the regular season and then dial it up during the playoffs when it matters. So let's bump them up to a .700% which is close to the best win% of all time. Under this the Brewers still have a 1/3 chance. Interestingly if the Brewers some how ended up with home field in that scenario the Dodgers would only be 55/45% favorites. You can use the calculator here to play around https://basketbols.com/nba-win-predictor/ One surprising thing for me is that the calculator suggests getting home field is more important than a major improvement. Since you only get near that same 55/45 split if the Brewers have the same win% as the dodgers
  15. igor67
    Accuracy in what sense though? If your model just has a number that says the Brewers are special to get the math right it's not accurate in a scientific sense. You want to be able to figure out what the Brewers are doing and see if other teams are starting to catch on. I wouldn't say that costs them credibility (different poster) unless you can show another model that does as good with other teams and also projects the Brewers better. My recent recollection is that most models have been struggling to accurately project the Brewers.
  16. igor67
    I suspect the problem is not adjusting the model, it is trying to capture what the Brewers are doing that other teams aren't. Just adding a variable to add Brewer wins might improve the accuracy but not the model.
  17. igor67
    Henderson as a sell high candidate makes a lot of sense to me, but I agree not for a pure rental. Especially because while health is a concern he absolutely looks like someone I want trying to pitch big innings in the playoff right now. If a team wants a big leaguer though I could see Gasser or Crow for sure in a package.
  18. igor67
    I had a hunch and sure enough Fischer has cooled off a fair bit in July with an .836 OPS in 70 PAs. I certainly wouldn't call that struggling, but I'm optimistic that maybe he has found enough of a challenge that he can work on that contact rate some. Anyone who gets to watch live frequently notice anything yet?
  19. igor67
    I know Fangraphs lets you pick some different models to estimate playoff chances the rest of the way, but as sveum elaborates on you have to really go looking for anything to support a barely .500 prediction at this point. I'm rooting for that first 100 win season, enroute to a World Series victory of course.
  20. igor67
    With Vaughn I think you see how the year plays out. The injury is still a factor and it's nice to get some more info on the internal options. On a 1 year deal Vaughn could make some sense as you break in younger players over there. But at this point one has to like the thought of spending 10 million or so towards more long term extensions.
  21. igor67
    Fitting Joey ends it
  22. igor67
    Could be, I certainly don't mind resting guys here in the soft part of the schedule for a couple of weeks. And I'd much rather Murphy say his legs weren't great then his arms.
  23. igor67
    I'm not inclined to be rude about it by any means, but not taking up an entire roster spot next year is pretty important. Taking the gamble last time around that when he came back he'd be really good was a reasonable gamble. Now even though he has been effective when he did pitch I just don't see it. We have too much success with other guys mixing and matching. Keeping him around without taking the roster spot is a different story if there is a way.
  24. igor67
    101 PAs into his career Pratt has 0.7 fWAR, which is a 4 win season as a full time player. As always difficult to project, but a solid combination of defense, batting, and baserunning all contributing helps make things more stable. DRS says he is a better SS than Joey and Joey comes out as a very good defensive 3rd basemen so the team definitely looks better with those two where they are.
  25. igor67
    It's been in place for awhile now but compared to the old some guys sign right away and then you wait on others for months I appreciate the quick deadline.
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