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liveforoctober

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Everything posted by liveforoctober

  1. liveforoctober
    I guess if they consider Choi and Aguilar's bat equal ... The bench on Braun at 1st days would be: Thames (LH) Sogard (LH) Perez (RH) Bandy (RH) Aguilar/Choi (RH/LH) on Braun in LF days: Sogard (LH) Perez (RH) Bandy (RH) Santana (RH) Aguilar/Choi (RH/LH) It seems to me we will have plenty of LH options off the bench consistently with Thames, Sogard, Villar ... the only thing I can see is that in games where Thames starts we won't have a power LH option and that is maybe where Choi can fill? My guess is right now Aguilar is being shopped hard for any kind of ticket and if they can get it .. Choi is an option. If not, Choi is the 1B in AAA as insurance.
  2. liveforoctober
    Counsell confirmed Barnes will be in the bullpen on opening day. Does that possibly cost Williams a job initially?
  3. liveforoctober
    I'm hovering right in the 83ish win range myself. I think it is natural to want/expect better than the year before and hope for growth on a mid 80 win season ... and while I think we got better this off season... I think we overachieved last year so I'm expecting something just north of .500 I'm not as overly concerned about the rotation as some seem to be. We are replacing Nelson and the mind numbing craziness that was our #5 spot in the rotation last year with Chacin and Woodruff. That is a downgrade ... but I don't think it is as bad as people are fearing. Just having the stability of a regular #5 (assuming Woodruff sticks in the rotation permanently) is a big upgrade to having to call Paulo Espino up the night before to see if he wants to pitch in the big leagues the next day. I can see how some are looking at the rotation as losing Nelson AND expecting regressions from Anderson and Davies ... but I don't personally see any reason to think that CA and ZD are not going to continue to pitch well. Our offense has the potential to RAKE though.. which could make the starting rotation issues a moot point. Record: 83/84 wins Playoffs: No All Stars: Yelich OPOY: Yelich Disappointment of the year: Manny Pina Biggest Surprise: Jeremy Jeffress I am way too excited to watch Yelich rake at MP and I am curious how Travis Shaw is going to light people up now that the weight of his daughter's condition is off his shoulders. Go Crew.
  4. liveforoctober
    Not to sound trite, but I think the fact that he only put up .6 WAR better than Brent Suter last year in twice the innings but was asking to get paid roughly 30x what Suter is making this year will do it. He is basically a 2 WAR/yr pitcher. So is Jhoulys Chacin. If you are using WAR as your metric... Chacin was a more valuable pitcher last year than Alex Cobb was. Financially sound teams don't give $14+ mil a year to 2 WAR pitchers. I think this was simply a math move. The nerds in the FO have numbers for every player and if the numbers make sense, you get the player. They determined Chacin was worth $xx/yr for Y years and when he agreed to those numbers ... they signed him. They probably decided Alex Cobb was worth $xx/yr for Y years and Cobb was asking over whatever the numbers they had concocted were telling them, therefore no deal. I don't know if it is right or wrong but Stearns doesn't seem to be a guy who makes moves based on emotion. I think Counsell and Stearns feel they can piece together a #4 starter/platoon/whatever that will deliver a 2 WAR season .. which is what Cobb would have given you, and they will save $14 million/yr doing it.
  5. liveforoctober
    Christian Yelich pending ... a healthy Ryan Braun is the best hitter in this lineup and it isn't really close. If he is healthy he is playing. Thames will be the odd man out if all 5 are available.
  6. liveforoctober
    That is perfect! I'm good with Pina hitting 6th... I love that speed at 8 & 9. Yeah, this lineup will be a lot of fun to watch top to bottom. I'm low key excited to have Villar/Arcia next to each other with no expectations at the bottom. Go ham on the base paths JV, be crazy.
  7. liveforoctober
    I've been flipping back and forth between this forum and the Packers forum and I read your first sentence and thought "Whoa, wait... I thought Randall Cobb was under contract this year already?!" I'm with you now though ... continue.
  8. liveforoctober
    As far as our guys bringing the NL average down 'a lot' with our 4/5 starters... that just isn't true. Too many innings for our two spots to make a significant dent. Just some quick longhand math. 15 (teams) x 162 (games) = 2430 games played by National League teams last year. NL AvgInnPerStart = 5.4 x 2430 (games played) = 13,122 innings pitched by starting pitchers in the NL last year. If we get obnoxious and hypothetically add 2 full innings onto every single start our 4/5 guys made (just to try to be drastic)... (and lets call it 65 starts) ... we will add 130 innings onto the NL total. 2017 NL hypothetical total innings with better Milwaukee 4/5 starters = 13,252. 13,252 = 2,430(x). Divide both sides by 2,430. The new NL total (average innings pitched by NL starter) if we gave every single start our 4/5 guys had an extra two innings would be an average of 5.45 innings. Even a drastic hypothetical hardly moves the needle. If the major league average of pitches per game is currently sitting at 146 -> we are looking at 16.2 pitcher per inning (146/9). If our inflated example of improving our 4/5 rotation guys came to fruition and we improved the NL average start by .05 innings ... we are talking about elongating the average start by NL pitchers by less than one pitch per start. I hope you didn't take this as an obnoxious assault on your comment... I just like math.
  9. liveforoctober
    Good eyes JMB. His numbers at Round Rock last year were great offensively. Not a big enough sample at the major league level for me to come to any conclusion personally. 4 years younger than Vogt. Left handed bat helps and the wonders of Miller Park to LHBs seem to be another reason to be curious about it... I have no idea about his defense. Interesting idea.
  10. liveforoctober
    Not if Yovani is the one piggy backing.
  11. liveforoctober
    I keep seeing this. Maybe Stearns and co. have the same or similar expectations for this team going into this season. I know we added Yelich and Cain but that might not adjust their way of going about business like some may hope around here. Stearns seems to want to gather as much talent as possible and build the depth approach to building a roster. I tend to agree with this. The Brewers have a bunch of stat nerds (I say that lovingly) that crunch numbers and they have price points on every guy out there. If Player A can be had for X number. Go get Player A. The fact that we got Yelich and Cain might have as much to do with the fact that some big time spenders (Yankees, Dodgers, etc) had to sit out the majority of this off season so the prices on a few guys hovered into our stat nerds green lights. I'm currently remodeling my house. I have my kitchen down to basically studs and am in no position right now to buy a new sink because I still don't have cabinets or counter tops ... that doesn't mean I won't buy a new sink if I see a great deal on one, because I know I will need it in the very near future. I know my example isn't the same thing but the general point is still there. Stearns and Co. may very well still be planning on going full out in '19 or '20 ... just grabbed a piece or two now for safe keeping until then.
  12. liveforoctober
    I'm not sure it has as much to do with homegrown vs. free agent as much as it has to do with a young guy who people want to prove can help us for many years to come vs old guy who would be a surprise to be here a full season. If your initial thought is correct ... people should also be pining for Gallardo over Miley ... because Yo is homegrown.
  13. liveforoctober
    With Cain and Yelich both in tow there is absolutely no reason for Villar to lead off, at least not to start the year. Your best hitters need to be at the top of the order (1-5) ... Villar is not one of those guys right now. It is great that Miley is pitching well, it really is. Much better than the alternative. But let's hold off until he faces decent MLB talent before getting excited that he has fixed something in whatever has caused him a bunch of trouble in the last couple of seasons. I know we don't have a lot to go off of right now but it would be very shocking if he makes the MLB roster. Guerra, Woodruff, Suter are all ahead of him to get a rotation spot and if he isn't making the rotation he won't be on the roster.
  14. liveforoctober
    Concerning Suter, et al ... if we are Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff in the rotation and don't have a clear #5, doesn't it make a lot of sense to have that 5th spot simply be "Suter/Gallardo/Guerra" and whoever hasn't been used in a long relief role in the last 4 days gets the start and gets through the order once or twice before giving way to the next in line? If Guerra starts, you are likely to get a lineup full of lefties and then Suter can take over in the 4th if Guerra doesn't look electric... he would have a lot of good matchups OR force the opposing manager to start making position changes in the 5th inning. Seems like a great way to put your #5 starter in a great position via matchups, etc I do understand the mentality of a starter knowing you are going to be starting vs not sure until gameday, etc
  15. liveforoctober
    I don't think the Brewers have to cut Choi, as he would be good depth to have at Colorado Springs. Also, a good first half with inflated AAA numbers could be decent trade bait. Choi has an opt out if he doesn't make the MLB roster as far as I'm aware. If he has a great spring he is free to go sign with anyone. He is basically showcasing himself for the rest of the league right now.
  16. liveforoctober
    I don't hate the idea. I just wish Heineman had any power at all. A lot of Vogt's WAR last year came from pinch hitting opportunities when the match up was great ... so the switch hitting thing is such a plus off the bench AND the arm is nice obviously. Wish he could put the ball in the gap on occasion.
  17. liveforoctober
    I like Aguilar a lot but if we got a deal similar to Jason Rogers for him I would grab it in a heartbeat. Shaw can play first if neither Thames or Braun are available. A couple of tickets (or any ticket) for Aguilar would be a nice add I think, considering I think he is going to be the casualty of this preseason :/
  18. liveforoctober
    I think it comes into play far more than you might think and has as much to do with the threat of a throw as an actual throw. Some scenarios where the advantage comes in will never be a stat that is tracked either. It is harder for a runner on 1st to advance to 3rd on a single to left field because the throw from left, typically, will be shorter. A fair number of singles to right field, however, with a good to great baserunner, allow for a 2 base advancement. Having a right fielder with an above average arm, if nothing else, makes the 3rd base coach a touch more hesitant to bring his guy to 3rd on a single to right. If Yelich is in RF, the game plan will be that runners have the green light to take 2 bases on virtually every single to right field because Yelich will need a few things to go right for him to make a play. If it is someone with a better arm, the game plan may very well be "pick up your 3rd base coach as soon as the ball clears the infield" and if that 3rd base coach has any hesitation in his decision ... the guy will be held. Never a stat that will be tracked. But having an arm in RF will save runs. Mentally note to yourself who our RF is every game this year and watch how runners treat him if/when going from 1st to 3rd on a single. I'm willing to bet only the top flight guys (think Billy Hamilton) will test Brett Phillips if Phillips' momentum is coming forward. I'm willing to bet any non catcher or 1b will be on the move if Yelich is out there, all other things equal.
  19. liveforoctober
    Braun received MVP votes 2 seasons ago when he played in 135 games .305/.365/.538 - OPS .903 He needs to be healthy ... but when healthy he is still our best pure hitter (Yelich now pending).
  20. liveforoctober
    I am not in favor of Villar leading off until he proves he is 2016 Villar and not 2017. Generally speaking, you want your best hitters hitting the most. Having Cain 6th while Villar is hitting 1st just doesn't make much sense to me. The difference hitting #1 vs #6 is a couple of at bats a week. Those should go to Cain/Yelich at this point over Villar/Sogard/2B. This is probably just me thinking too much but Villar also has a Gomez streak in him on the basepaths that scares me and I'd prefer not to have Cain and Yelich hitting with that happening. Villar's wild style is fine if he is hitting 7th and we need a create an opportunity to score with Arcia and the pitcher coming up. Cain and Yelich are really good hitter, I'd rather they get to hit the pitch they want to rather than having to take a few so Villar can try to get a jump. For me: Cain Yelich Braun Shaw Santana Villar Pina Arcia Appropriate switch when Thames plays as necessary..
  21. liveforoctober
    This isn't a prediction but more a thought. If Medeiros was moved into a bullpen role I think he would have a chance to gain some steam with a little success. Kid throws 3 pitches but I don't think he would need to out of the pen. The control is an issue currently, so take your two best pitches and I would hope his k/9 ratio would make the jump above 1. Still a kid though so I understand why they want to look at him as a starter for a while yet. That BB/9 rate is rough though.
  22. liveforoctober
    .. and that was actually my follow up. If we, as rumored, are going to be looking for a pitcher at the deadline if we are in it .. I'm wondering which guy we could sell high on that is having a monster AAA season. Stokes is a good pull although not for this deadline I don't think?
  23. liveforoctober
    Low key excited for Harrison to start in Appleton. Hoping he and Lutz at least start there. Would be good to see those two guys hit some bombs before Lutz moves on. Also, Carmona is just a kid - will he be ready for Appleton as well already? It seems hitters jump nicely once they hit Colorado Springs ... so any obvious candidates to make a Brett Phillips-esque ascension in the ranking by getting to AAA?
  24. liveforoctober
    and this is why I still come here, posts like this are incredible. Thank you for sharing! When I first came to this board years ago I was blown away at the wit and knowledge of the fans. The game day chat room was HYSTERICAL and I was amazed at the knowledge and passion of 'my people' (long time, starved, hurt Brewers fans). This board, in my opinion, has shifted a bit since then .. though no one's fault in particular. More bickering, more guys flexing their knowledge to show others up, etc... But yes, the 'old board' shines through now and again and I don't think I'll ever be able to go away because of it. Stick around Benji!
  25. liveforoctober
    For those of us without access to the game feed this is quite the cliffhanger...
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