CheezWizHed

Jimmy's hair is way to short for that. Even if he stopped cutting it when he got hurt, he couldn't grow that mane!

Its really too bad the MLB doesn't allow draft day trades. I actually doubt too many would happen, but it could add some interesting twists.

Not to mention the one spelling his name right.

Struck out the side in the 8th, all swinging... On 11 pitches no less. And no more either.

If you think Cobb, Matthews or Kendricks have a chance at being cut anymore, I don't think you are really looking at what we have behind them. Earlier in the offseason, I could've seen it, but not anymore. Kendricks might be at 90% now, but even signing Lewis means that we only have 3 NFL caliber TEs and a bunch of UDFAs. Sure one might come out of nowhere and Lance flops. But the chances are low. I hope Scott really is "rare". Scouting reports gushed about ability to drop it inside the 20, but didn't really complement his strength. And you can go look at the history of drafting punters... Yes, its the main way to get a pro-bowl caliber guy, but there are more busts than booms when drafting one.

[sarcasm]Well, thank goodness someone on the team read my roster analysis post and filled my #1 roster weakness! I am an owner after all... (please no meddling owner complaints).[/sarcasm] Not sure why I didn't think to look at who was left out there after the draft. Getting a blocking TE was a pretty obvious need. Seems like a perfect fit. OSS, what do you expect out of Allison? Think he can be a #2 WR? A #1? My evaluation is that he has been a good #4 and I think he might be able to be a decent #3. Good route runner, good hands, but not much speed. Seems like he is pretty ceiling limited and probably already reached it. And now this year, there is a lot of pressure with the young, fast, big(ger) WRs that have much more upside than he does. If Allison comes in and wins the #3 WR spot, great. He holds a spot on the team. But if he ends up as the 4th WR (or worse) in his 3rd season is it really worth keeping him? That probably means Michael Clark or J'Mon Moore passed him on the depth chart and he probably plateaued. Unless there is a big gap between Allison at #4 and whomever else at #5, I'd guess that the Packers keep the higher upside young WR over him.

Initially, I was heavily leaning towards a pass on Dez. But I'm leaning more and more towards saying that we should take the chance. Functionally on the 53-man roster, he would take Allison's spot as 3rd WR. Allison is a decent 4th WR, but not a whole lot more upside. If Clark, Yancy, or one of the rookie WRs really steps up, you don't really need to keep Dez either. Dez has a bit of a reputation, but frankly (unless i haven't been paying that much attention to him...which I haven't), it seems like his NFL negatives have been pretty minor compared to his college rep. And if he does become a cancer... cut him and move on. I don't believe I'm saying this, but I'd guess it would be a good move for the Pack. Here is the WR analysis I put up on the other thread, but changed to add Dez Bryant: WRs (5-7): Predicting 6 - Davante Adams (100%) – The default #1 WR right now. And the only one locked for the outside. - Randall Cobb (100%) – Could possibly be his last year with the Pack? - J’Mon Moore (95%) – Will we be saying “J’Mon man!” or “Moore! Give me Moore”? Either way, too much talent to not make the roster. - Dez Bryant (70%): Honestly, quite a bit like Nelson at the moment. Brings in a lot of experience, but lost some speed also. Some risk of a locker room issue, but at a one year prove-it deal, that should be containable. - Michael Clark (65%): A personal favorite of mine. Big and fast, but really raw last year. I’d guess that it really depends on if he develops at route running. Could be similar to Jimmy Graham as a WR-like TE. - Equanimeous St. Brown (65%): The dark horse at WR. He has the skills but does he have the dedication to put in the work? - Geronimo Allison (30%): His roster spot is not in his hands. Decent route runner, but I don’t see any more upside left. Mainly competing with Dez as the 3rd WR. Has the advantage in knowing Rodgers, but not much else. - DeAngelo Yancey (40%) – Lost 15lbs and going into his second year. Will he make the big 2nd year jump or get stuck? With all the younger guys and being a “TT draft guy”, he will need a splash this year. - Marquez Valdes-Scantling (40%): The new Trevor Davis with size. Speed to burn and size. But needs development on route running. - Trevor Davis (25%) – Speed, but just hasn’t developed as a WR. With all the competition, I just don’t see him making it. - Jake Kumerow (5%) – Local boy from Division III. Practice squad is really his only chance - Colby Pearson (0%) – UDFA from last year that didn’t make the PS until McCaffrey was stolen off late in the season. - Dropped off the 90-man roster to make room for Dez

Lucas Patrick: Correct. If I only made one mistake in that whole thing, I did well! Evans vs Rollins: I'm guessing that Rollins is put at safety this year. He was never the fastest guy and injuries will slow him a bit more. Evans, while extremely fast, can't quite make any non-ST impact on the team. RT: Whomever can handle RT, even in a back-up mode, would greatly increase their chances of sticking. Even better if they can stop-gap LT. I'm just not sure Madison can do either one. Murphy has shown it. Even Spriggs has shown he is ok (just not to high 2nd round expectations). Pankey is another to watch this year. - I'm probably under on Madison as a 5th round pick, but they have been cut in the past. Plus there is a lot of competition at that spot.

So, after doing the roster analysis, I'm left to a few conclusions: - Wow we are thin at TE. Signing Jimmy Graham sounds great, but he was only ok for a couple years (at least for his norm). I think he will bounce back, but there is some risk. Kendricks wasn't much of anything last year. And that is it. No blocking TEs, little depth. - WR: I realize that Jimmy will probably act as our 2nd outside WR opposite Adams, but otherwise we are a bit thin. Lots of options so someone might step up, but no clear path. - OLB: Biegel has some interesting upside, but very few others (maybe Reggie). I think we will have enough bodies and talent at the position this year, but not a lot of future there. Otherwise, its pretty balanced. Talent, youth, upside, competition. It will be interesting once they put on the pads, but I think they direly need to find a third TE and have Kendricks step up in year two.

Rather than my usual roster prediction thread, I decided to write-up a blurb on each individual player on the roster and their probability of making the roster. Then highlighted by "way to early" predictions. Sorry if that got really long. QB (2-3) – Predicting 2 - Aaron Rodgers (110% chance): Annually the easiest roster prediction - DeShone Kizer (75%): They didn’t trade for him to compete with Hundley. He is the new backup. - Brett Hundley (25%) - could be traded, but after three years of work with MM, his accuracy beyond 10 yards is still garbage. - Tim Boyle (5%) - 90% chance of the Practice squad however. RB/FB (4-6) Predicting 5 unless they keep Kerridge instead of a third TE. - Aaron Jones (100%): A real game changer if he stays healthy. Loved how he setup his runs last year. - Jamaal Williams (100%): Between the tackles bruiser. Nice lighting and thunder complement to Jones. - Ty Montgomery (100%): Still an enigma. A great season at RB two years ago, but not a “typical” RB. Could he be the third WR this year? Or backup Cobb in the slot? - Aaron Ripkowski (90%) – Played much less than the years prior, but I can’t see them switching to a no-FB offense yet. Plus, without a blocking TE, he should be very confident. - Davante Mays (50%): That big and that fast… he gets another year. - Joe Kerridge (10%): Only real chance of sticking is an injury to Rip or as the third TE. - Joel Bouagnon (1%): Similar size/speed as Mays, he might be able to compete. WRs (5-7): Predicting 6 - Davante Adams (100%) – The default #1 WR right now. And the only one locked for the outside. - Randall Cobb (100%) – Could possibly be his last year with the Pack? - J’Mon Moore (95%) – Will we be saying “J’Mon man!” or “Moore! Give me Moore”? Either way, too much talent to not make the roster. - Michael Clark (65%): A personal favorite of mine. Big and fast, but really raw last year. I’d guess that it really depends on if he develops at route running. Could be similar to Jimmy Graham as a WR-like TE. - Equanimeous St. Brown (65%): The dark horse at WR. He has the skills but does he have the dedication to put in the work? - Geronimo Allison (60%): His roster spot is not in his hands. Decent route runner, but I don’t see any more upside left. If he is passed for the #3 WR by J’Mon, I’d guess he gets cut to allow a higher upside guy to take the 4-6th spots. - DeAngelo Yancey (40%) – Lost 15lbs and going into his second year. Will he make the big 2nd year jump or get stuck? With all the younger guys and being a “TT draft guy”, he will need a splash this year. - Marquez Valdes-Scantling (40%): The new Trevor Davis with size. Speed to burn and size. But needs development on route running. - Trevor Davis (25%) – Speed, but just hasn’t developed as a WR. With all the competition, I just don’t see him making it. - Jake Kumerow (5%) – Local boy from Division III. Practice squad is really his only chance - Colby Pearson (0%) – UDFA from last year that didn’t make the PS until McCaffrey was stolen off late in the season. TEs (2-4): Three is normal, but not much here to chose from. Predicting 2 unless they trade/claim another. - Jimmy Graham (100%): The Packers need to use him more as a Jordy replacement than Seattle did as a traditional TE. - Lance Kendricks (100%) – Hopefully he has a resurgent second year with the Packers. Mainly because there is no one else… - Emanuel Byrd, Kevin Rader, Ryan Smith, Robert Tonyan (10%): If they keep one from this group, your guess is as good as mine here… Might keep Kerridge (FB) as the third TE, but more likely the best blocker wins. OL (9-10): Normally, we have kept 8-9 OL, but with uncertainty, they might hold onto 10. LT, LG, and C starters are locked down. RT might be open depending on Bulaga’s health and contract status. While RG is wide open for competition. Those positions and their backups leave the last 3-4 spots wide, wide open. Much will be decided on who steps up in their rookie or second years. I’m predicting 9. - David Bakhtiari (100%): I admit it. I was wrong about him in the past. I didn’t think he could stick at LT. - Lane Taylor (100%): Solid starter at LG keeps the left side consistent. - Corey Linsley (100%): The only sure NFL talent at C on the roster. - Justin McCray (100%): 75% chance of being the RG starter, but his flexibility to play RG and RT ensures a spot for him as a backup at least. - Bryan Bulaga (75%): Could start the season on the PUP or be able to start. But in his absence, if someone looks good at RT, he could be cut. Refused a pay cut earlier this year and his cap number could seal his fate. - Jason Spriggs (90%): Hasn’t lived up to his billing yet at T, but still growing. But if he has another TC last last year and someone else really steps up, he could be gone. - Kyle Murphy (90%): Reminded me of Tausch last year. Not impressive physically, but a good player. A chance to start at RG and RT this year. - Cole Madison (50%): Nice size/speed candidate for RG/RT. Has a chance to start at RG even. He looks like Josh Sitton, hopefully he plays like him. - Lucas Patrick (50%): Filled in at G last year. And played well, but uninspiring. Has a chance to make a big 2nd year jump, but lots of physical talents going to push him this year. - Kofi Amichia (40%): Highly athletic guard drafted last year but looked completely out of place last year with a lack of strength. Boom or bust candidate this year and my dark horse candidate at RG. - Adam Pankey (25%): Played pretty well in TC last year. Could be a dark horse RT candidate. - Austin Davis (25%): UDFA center from Duke. Has an outside chance to make the roster as a backup C but will probably need to show something at G too. - Jacob Alsadek (10%): Massive T/G who was signed as a priority UDFA. - Alex Light (10%): Another priority UDFA to try out at T/G - Dillon Day (1%): Small center that won’t contribute at C, so versatility is against him. - Kyle Meadows (0%): Big and slow tackle lottery pick. DL (5-6): Pretty clear distinction between the top 5 and the rest. But I think they will keep 6. - Mike Daniels (100%): Near All-Star should benefit from having team mates that can rotate. - Kenny Clark (100%): Not putting up big numbers yet, but I think he is going to blowup this year. Still only 22 and going into his 3rd year. - Muhammad Wilkerson (100%): I’m hopeful in a rejuvenation but at worst he should be an upgrade on the DL. - Dean Lowry (90%): Not physically impressive but a smart player that maximized his effort. Good rotation player. - Montravius Adams (90%): Showed very little in TC last year before getting hurt but has lots of physical gifts. - James Looney (70%): Built as a 4-3 DE and doesn’t seem like a good match for a 3-4 defense, but maybe he can grow? But they drafted him so they must like him. - Tyler Lancaster (50%): Big kid that might find a niche at NT on a team filled with DEs. - Conor Sheehy (1%): Local favorite but will need a year at least. - Filipo Mokofisi (1%): Non-Local favorite due to a fun name. But will also probably need a year. LB (8-9) Another case where there a pretty clear 8 players and a gap to the rest. I’m guessing they keep a 9th as a development OLB. - Clay Matthews (100%): It will be interesting to see what impact Pettine’s defense makes on his game. Clay certainly showed he has the speed last year. I can’t wait to see what some defensive creativity does for him. - Nick Perry (100%): Is one healthy season too much to ask? Might be a cut risk due to health if we really had anyone pushing him. - Vince Biegel (100%): Broken foot blew up his TC chances last year and I’m interested in seeing what he can bring in year 2. - Blake Martinez (100%): Took a big step up last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he wears the comm helmet as the leader of the defense this year. - Oren Burks (100%): Third round pick is a lock to make the roster. Will he be raw or will he contribute as a dime backer? - Jake Ryan (90%): Still a good 1st and 2nd down LBer with run support. Solid but nothing splashy. Not many people pushing him for that role, so little chance that he doesn’t make it. - Reggie Gilbert (80%): A lot of positive comments in the offseason about him. It’s taken a couple years but we might see some impact this year. - Kyler Fackrell (65%): I thought he played better last year than advertised but doesn’t seem to be improving much either way. Solid backup and ST player. At risk to lose out to someone with some upside but that isn’t a given seeing what is behind him. - Chris Odom (50%): He stuck around all year last year so they seem to like him. But didn’t really do anything last year and will need to show something to make it this year. - Kendall Donnerson (10%): Drafted. Massive athlete but not a player yet. Certainly, will be on the PS if not the 53-man roster. - Parris Bennett (1%): Not an athlete, but a ball-player. ILB with a nose for the ball. - Naashon Hughes (1%): Edge rushers always get a little extra attention. - CJ Johnson (0%): Development ILB candidate. Played one year in college. - Greer Martini (1%): Decent size and ok speed. Has a chance. - Marcus Porter (1%) – Division II ILB with good measurables, but probably will need a year to transition. - Ahmad Thomas (1%): Has some skills but limited athleticism. DB (9-10). Nine players are pretty clear and the 10th really up in the air. - HHCD (100%): Best combination of experience and youth in the entire backfield. Play receded last year but I expect a huge rebound under Pettite. - Kevin King (100%): I thought he would be rawer last year than he actually was but ran right with the leagues best WRs. A year of strength conditioning could make him very interesting. - Jaire Alexander (100%): First round picks make the roster. Expected to be the nickel or dime CB. - Josh Jackson (100%): Second round picks make the roster too. I don’t expect much the first year. He played a lot of zone at Iowa and might take some time to adjust. - Josh Jones (100%): Targeted to be starting safety this year. Look for big improvements on last year. - Kentrell Brice (100%): Competing with Jones at safety this year, he complements JJ’s in the box strengths with better coverage. - Tramon Williams (100%): Senior statesmen still has something left in the tank. Tramon’s role is simple: #1: mentor the young pups. #2: Start until they are ready. - Davon House (90%): Played well when healthy last year but wasn’t healthy as much as needed. - Lenzy Pipkins (75%) UDFA from last year that came on strong and looked like he belongs. But needs to improve and beat out tougher competition this year. - Quinten Rollins (40%): Never quite fit in but showed promise. Injury last year might have slowed down his marginal speed. Might transition to safety. - Marwin Evans (40%): Great ST player that isn’t making much of a defensive impact. More competition this year makes it tough for him to make it. - Donatello Brown (10%): Had some moments in TC. Has a chance if he makes a big second year jump. Being 28 (same age as House!) already plays heavily against him. - Josh Hawkins (10%): Again, he has his moments but his upside is probably limited. - Raven Greene (10%): UDFA with some ball-hawking tendencies. Probably a PS target however. - Herb Waters (5%): Raw player making the transition from WR for the last two years. Maybe it clicks this year. - Demitri Goodson (0%): Never before has a player stuck around and contributed so little. This is the year for good byes. - Jermaine Whitehead (0%): Been around a couple years with minimal impact. ST: 3. - Mason Crosby (100%): Kickoff skills are marginal, but not much else to complain about. - Hunter Bradley (99%): You don’t draft a LS to cut him. He hopefully will be worth it… - JK Scott (100%): I’m not a fan of drafting a punter especially when the one you had was pretty good. But it seemed like everyone in the team knew something we didn’t. Vogel didn’t even bother to fight for the position. - Zach Triner (1%): Bradley will need to really flop for any chance here.

Just remember that Jimmy Nelson took a couple years bouncing between AAA and MLB before he stuck permanently. Then he had two mediocre years before breaking out last year. Both Jimmy and Brandon struggled with control issues but good stuff. Not sure if Woodruff can follow Nelson, but its not an uncommon problem.

Freddy Peralta just made a positive return on the Adam Lind trade (granted, even without pitching a 0 WAR was a positive return based on Lind's -0.3 WAR for Seattle. Next lottery ticket, please!

Who's to say that Scooter would replicate exactly what he is doing now if he stayed? Often a change of scenery is what was needed; or perhaps a different batting coach and approach. His last two years here were pretty bad and we were looking to upgrade. So I'm not sure why this has to keep coming up. Yes, it would be nice if he was hitting 850+ OPS for us the last couple years, but he wasn't and now he isn't. Rather than reliving that decision over and over, maybe we should focus on how to make our current one better...

I was just looking at him. Plays all over the place in addition to hitting .370+ If Brewers do something about 2B he should be considered for a promotion. He's 25 already - gotta see what he can do. I'm not sure about MLB, but perhaps AAA. He is interesting... the wheels fell off last year in his first year at AA, but was 820 and 830 OPS the years previous. Plus, his OBP leads BA by 100 pts.

Jags cut Nortman who averaged 44.1 per punt last year and 45.2 for his career. If Scott doesn't work out - and remember, he also kicks off and has experience holding - there will be quality punters available. Hopefully. We thought the same thing when we cut Tim Mathstay and it took a year plus to get someone decent. And when we cut Ryan, it took 2+ years before we got Mathstay.

So I looked up some of our other players to see the impact of them playing with the Bucks vs elsewhere: Teletovic: -- 3 seasons with Brookland: 3.9 3PA; 36.2% -- 2 seasons with the Bucks: 4.4 3PA; 35.7% -- 1 season with Phoenix: 5.8 3PA; 39.3% Snell: -- 3 seasons with the Bulls: 2.5 3PA; 35.1% -- 2 seasons with the Bucks: 4.0 3PA; 40.4% Dellavedova: -- 3 seasons with Cleveland: 2.6 3PA; 39.8% -- 2 seasons with the Bucks: 2.6 3PA; 36.9% Middleton -- 1 season with the Pistons: 1.7 3PA; 31.1% (only 27 games) -- 4 seasons with the Bucks: 4.1 3PA; 39.4% Limit samples of course since I only picked Bucks players that played somewhere else. But no evidence that more (good) three point attempts will reduce the percentages. The bigger problem is that most of our decent three point shooters are deficient in other areas of the game. Middleton, Brogdon and Parker are really the only ones that you want on the court for an extended period of time.

But it's much easier to have a high percentage if you don't shoot them often. I was expecting this argument. What is your evidence that this is true? Or at least your reasoning why? If you mean that we start jacking up bad opportunities just to increase the 3s/game, I would agree with you. But if the offense runs more plays with the intent to get people good 3 point opportunities and promote shooting them, the percentages shouldn't vary that much. And that was the main point... we don't have an offense that focuses on 3s. And to reiterate, i didn't make the argument to say our shooters are good so don't add more. I was only trying to compare that our shooters accuracy isn't all that far off of Houston's. Probably the main difference is that Harden is a good 3 point shooter and Giannis is not. Imagine Giannis' threat if you couldn't give him 10 feet when he is beyond the arc.

Free Sogard and Perez! (From the roster...)

I updated the UDFAs based on the official Packer list. These guys are either only invited to the rookie camp or they failed a physical: Damon Gibson, TE/WR Minnesota—Moorhead Naashon Hughes, OLB, Texas Chris Seisay, CB, Portland State

Ouch... very surprising. So much for a punting battle, which stinks IMO. Rookie punters don't always work out, but I figured at worst, we would have a known quantity in Vogel.

So your evidence is that 6 Houston players shoot at 35.9% or better? Hear are the six Bucks at 35.9% or better: Khris Middleton .359 Malcolm Brogdon .385 Jabari Parker .383 Mirza Teletovic .467 (small sample last year, but 37% career) Tony Snell .403 Matthew Dellavedova .372 I'm not saying we couldn't use better shooters, but our offense has been rather 3ptr adverse.

A utility 2B/3B position is filled by Perez at this time - making Orf redundant. At a career 254/280/387/667, drop Hernan for Orf then. Leave up Phillips and drop Sogard.

Maybe he was being very optimistic for our AAA club next year (except Burnes still pitching there).

The Packers have a complex system, and it takes at least a year or more to get on the same page as Rodgers. With this system you have to draft WRs a year before you need them. They'll get a year to evaluate these guys. That is my point though. They have so many, its really hard to keep them. Especially with pulling in three development WRs two years in a row. Yancy, Dupre and Clark came in last year. They lost Dupre off the PS, Yancy was pulled for depth, but did nothing, and Clark was pulled so he wasn't stolen off the PS. We have Adams, Cobb, Allison and Davis as the main holdovers (granted Davis is in real danger to be cut this year). Add in the three new draft picks and there is a lot of decisions to be made. Personally, I don't think they will keep 7 WRs on the 53-man; at least not for long. 6 WRs, 2 TEs and probably 6RBs (2 FBs). Locks: Cobb, Adams Probable: Allison, Moore Best of the rest: Davis, Clark, Yancy, MVS, and St. Brown. There is a good chance that 2 of those stick on the PS this year again, but a lot of talent for probably two roster spots nonetheless.