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Roderick

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Everything posted by Roderick

  1. Roderick
    Maybe he signed there for $4M, but wouldn't sign here for that. Probably asked for much more from the Brewers at some point and would have to eat his pride to go back and take the much less offer. Otherwise, yes, I agree I would have taken the $4M risk/reward on Marcum for the Brewers. Assuming he was ready at the start of the year, even if he only gave us half of a season, that might have been the right time that one of the minor league options would have been ready.
  2. Roderick
    I would agree to the part about taking the randomness out of it. I would use the QO threshold for the following. Teams that lose a free agent get a pick at the end of the 1st round. And my thought on the signing team is this. They lose their 2nd round pick if they sign one FA (that isn't too painful). The second FA they sign they lose their 1st pick. So if a team needs to fill a hole they can, but if they want to "corner the market" they are going to lose their first pick at least (doesn't matter what their record was the year before). And if it actually happens that they sign a 3rd guy, they will lose their 1st round pick the next year.
  3. Roderick
    That was a lot more than I expected. How much more would Gomez have even went to arbitration for? Seems like they gave up money not to go through the hassle of the arby.
  4. Roderick
    Evidently they have money to burn, so are willing to spend millions for that next incremental win. I don't know their roster well enough to propose any other moves to make to spend their money that would buy more wins.
  5. Roderick
    You can't just ignore how it is spread out just because you think it is too much. It is basic math/finance. Without more details, it could be most of the $14M is going to be paid 12 years from now. If you use the rate of inflation in baseball to figure it in todays dollars it is definitely much less than the Yankees QO cost per year. This looks to me like a way for Bores to save face as the dollar amount looks big enough, but the real cost is much lower. Actually, I can ignore how it's spread out, because it's still 28 million committed, so they have to pay it all. It's totally an overpay, and perhaps by 20+ million. He is essentially making $7M in 2013, $7M in 2014 and assuming the deferred $14M is paid out equally, he is getting approx $9M in 2014 dollars. So he is getting a total of $23M for the two years of work. If you think that is too much, fine I have no problem. But calling his contract $28M for the purposes of determining if too much was paid is just wrong.
  6. Roderick
    I think that is exactly the worry about the potential overuse of Gallardo as he is going to be their best shot at winning games. Mexico is in the same pool as the U.S., Canada, and Italy. Pool play consists of one game against each of the other teams in your pool on consecutive days. Only the top two teams in each pool advance (play more than 3 games) to the next round. Odds are Gallardo pitches in one game and that's it. The U.S. should be overwhelming favorite to advance and on paper Canada is stronger than Mexico. Got it. Sounds like they should save Gallardo for the Canada game and hope.
  7. Roderick
    I think that is exactly the worry about the potential overuse of Gallardo as he is going to be their best shot at winning games.
  8. Roderick
    You can't just ignore how it is spread out just because you think it is too much. It is basic math/finance. Without more details, it could be most of the $14M is going to be paid 12 years from now. If you use the rate of inflation in baseball to figure it in todays dollars it is definitely much less than the Yankees QO cost per year. This looks to me like a way for Bores to save face as the dollar amount looks big enough, but the real cost is much lower.
  9. Roderick
    What if Morris isn't doing well in AAA and Gamel/Green haven't shown anything? Assuming he is playing well enough that someone would trade for him and he is worth the QO. Maybe they don't trade him and put the QO tag on him with the hope that they keep him for 2014. The downside would be that he declines the QO and they only get a draft pick (which may be only a little less than they get in a midseason trade anyways), had to pay him for half a season, and have to find an answer in FA after he declines. How much is Hart's $5M for the second half of season of 2013 worth to the Brewers? Does it mean they trade him even if the offers are basically equivalent to a late first / high second round draft pick?
  10. Roderick
    Yes, but I'm sure that other teams that are out of the playoffs are also "hurt" by this change. So if every team is "hurt", then there is no advantage for anyone over the long haul. I say long haul as teams cycle in and out of the playoffs and how many short-term contract players may be dealt on any given year. There will be seasons that the Brewers are in the playoff hunt and need to trade for a player and it should take less in prospects to get that player now. Personally, I think the QO helps the small and mid-market teams out. The biggest thing is it is only a one year contract. Mistakes are minimized. And mistakes kill the guy that has to live on a budget. The big market teams can sign a player to a long term deal and if/when he doesn't work out, they trade him (and cash) to KC for some young nobody prospect and they go out and sign a different free agent.
  11. Roderick
    WHAT? Would he project well at 3rd? Would he even want to move there? I don't see Weeks at 3B either. I assume he would be traded well before making that transition. But, if he could handle it, that would be an option when ARam moves on. I just assume the projected lineup was influenced to not speculate on free agents filling holes, hence they needed to put someone that is a current Brewer there.
  12. Roderick
    Not necessarily because you also lose how much you can spend in the draft also. The Indians will actually have a lower amount that they can spend on the draft than the Brewers will with the loss of that 2nd round pick. The Yankees will have a higher pool of funds to spend also. I have seen a few articles talking about the downside of less money in the signing pool. But, unless you want to overpay the slot for a player that has college options to make sure you get him, I don't see the big deal. Yes, you have less money to spend on your draft picks, but you also have one less higher level draft pick to actually sign. Am I missing something else?
  13. Roderick
    I don't see how something that is affecting 5 players this offseason (and maybe a few more in other seasons) could be considered awful for baseball. Please explain that because of QOs you can't get squat for your good, but not great players.
  14. Roderick
    What Olney was saying that might be a workaround is have Cleveland sign Lohse. They would lose only their third round pick (protected 1st, 2nd for Swisher). Then they trade Lohse to whichever team had put the deal together for a prospect that has more value than a 3rd pick but less than the compensation 1st round pick the team would normally lose. They would probably need MLB approval for this workaround, unless Cleveland actually kept him as in linked scenario. http://wahoosonfirst.com/2013/01/01/why-the-indians-should-sign-kyle-lohse/
  15. Roderick
    Doubtful. Lohse turned down the QO. And I don't think the Cardinals plan on signing another free agent starter as I they have multiple young guys that will compete for the spot. I suppose if he gets cheap enough.....
  16. Roderick
    I would think the probability is that Hart will perform (and stay healthy) to earn a QO. Hence I would use the one year of Hart plus draft pick for whatever in any trade scenarios..... Edit: Attach an article from St.Louis regarding the draft pick value http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/the-added-cost-of-signing-kyle-lohse/article_4bda70bb-64e3-5069-b708-abde1a0efbdf.html
  17. Roderick
    I would guess around here too. .280 with gap power sounds like Lucroy to me.
  18. Roderick
    If you just include the base 25 man roster at the beginning of the year and add in the $5M from Braun's signing bonus and Aoki's posting fee, I had the Brewers basically at $101M last year. That was before the additional costs for injury and September callups and salary saved by trading Greinke.
  19. Roderick
    I'm pretty sure that Rogers is still pre-arby even though the bfan net page has arby. I wouldn't ignore the guys like Axford, Estrada, Narveson that are in arby, as they will be making quite a bit of change by 2014.
  20. Roderick
    I believe the Brewers will and Gomez will decline it as he will get as much or more and will get that at a 5 or 6 year contract. Gomez should get what Upton got this year and maybe a little bit more. What? Gomez would have to have a HUGE year to get a 13.5 million qualifying offer. I just don't see it. That is the future of baseball salaries. See M. Bourn, he turned down his QO, to look for more - and I assume he will get it. But it would be funny if he waited too long and got less than what everyone was assuming he was going to get because he has Bores for an agent.
  21. Roderick
    I don't have a problem with Estrada. But Gallardo is the one that will be expected to stomp out losing streaks and generally carry the starting staff, not Estrada. And that was my point.
  22. Roderick
    Yes. It's the average of the highest paid players, so as salaries escalate, the qualifying offer will escalate. There is little chance that teams will offer the QO to any but the top players, whereas in the past teams were willing to offer arby to about anyone. This was a win for the players' union. There will be a lot more free agents, as there were a lot of mid-tier players in the past who couldn't get good offers in free agency because teams weren't willing to give up draft picks for them. Now teams have to consider whether or not to make the QO to All-Star caliber players. It certainly changes the strategy for teams who used to sign free agents or trade for players with the expectation that they could re-stock their farm system when the free agent left (a strategy Melvin admittedly used numerous times). If Hart has a similar season in 2013 as 2012, the Brewers would put the QO on Hart. You get a draft pick or his services for 2014 and not the downside of a long term contract. Even if Morriss has a great year in AAA, he could wait one more if need be.
  23. Roderick
    I'm not against trading anyone other than Braun and Gallardo. And I am only against trading Gallardo because of the specific need this year to have someone with more experience. That said, we could trade Hart for younger players and I still wouldn't admit we are done for 2013 as Gamel would get a chance to prove his worth. If we trade Hart we probably got a piece or two that are close and some money for DM to play with. Let's see what this young starting staff can do before we write off the season. It could be our offense is nearly as good as last year and the starters are doing fine and we just need to trade for some bullpen help. Doesn't help that the Astros left the division, though.
  24. Roderick
    With all the TV money flooding in, it may look cheap in a couple of years.
  25. Roderick
    Or it means Narveson pitched well in the spring (or there are injuries). Hence they moved a young pitcher to the pen or had them start in the minors since they have options (other than Rogers) and Narveson doesn't. You don't seem to preclude the fact that Narveson could start as you mention he would if the youngsters fail, but you make it seem impossible for him to start and be productive?
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