JosephC

Yesterday I was looking up the projected WARs of some players to get an idea of possible trades. Kind of kicking around an idea that would start with Kris Bryant to the Mets (big-name but very little surplus value due to just 1 year of control left), J.D. Davis (and maybe Dominic Smith as well) to the Brewers to fill their holes, and Josh Hader to the Mets with the Cubs and Brewers throwing a whole lot more to the Mets to get this all to work. I was shocked to see that Steamer is only projecting Hader as a 1.0 WAR player in 2021. Personally, I think Hader good for about 6.6 WAR over the next three years, which would put his surplus value in the 30-35 million range. But if MLB teams only project him as a 3 WAR player over the next three years, then his surplus value is probably less than 5 million and the Brewers are only likely to get a couple lottery ticket type prospects for him. If that is how the market is evaluating Hader, then him being a "hold" is the easiest decision in the history of major league baseball. I really have a problem with Steamer's number on Hader. If you pro-rate 2020's numbers out for a full year, Hader was only a 1 bWAR/fWAR player. But he was at 2.5 bWAR/fWAR in 2019 and 2.4 bWAR/fWAR in 2018. Meanwhile, you have a guy like J.D. Davis for the Mets. Same numbers for Davis is 0.9 in 2020, 1.7 in 2019 and -0.8 in 2018...Steamer projects him at 2.2 for 2021. I'd be really interested to see how they came up with that number for Davis as it's at a level that he's never come close to in the past.

I don't think I've seen a QB meltdown like that since Brett Favre retired.

Oh crap you are right, I totally forgot about that move.

It's pretty likely that Cronenworth valuations would be all over the board and he's probably fits in the "beauty in the eye of the beholder" department. A year ago at this time he was a 25-year old that was #15 in the Padres system (Baseball America Handbook). That's a role-player type prospect and on my board is roughly a 5.5 million prospect surplus value type. So he gets his chance last year and posts a 1.6 bWAR and 1.4 fWAR in a 60 game season. So pro-rate that out to a full season and he was a 4 WAR player. Obviously if that continues he's likely a 100+ million dollar surplus value type player. Now he only had 192 plate appearances, so is he just a flash-in-the-pan of the next Jeff McNeil? Steamer is projecting him as a 2.2 WAR player in 2020. I'd guess that, on average, valuations would put him as being good for something like 8.5 WAR over the next 5 years. If so, that probably puts his surplus value in the 55-60 million dollar range. I'd put Hader in the 30-35 million range so personally I doubt if Cronenworth could be had in Hader deal. The other thing that makes me think that the Padres would not deal Cronenworth is the depth chart. They have Tatis at short, Machado at third, Hosmer at first, but really nobody to fill the hole at second if Cronenworth is traded. The backup infielders are Jorge Mateo, catcher Austin Nola (who could fill-in at second but is unlikely to be a primary option) and Tucupita Marcano who is on the 40-man but has not played above A ball. Mateo OPS'ed .454 in very limited MLB action last year and came up through the ranks as a plus-plus speed guy with questions regarding almost every other aspect of his game. Mateo could be a pretty good player down the road but he doesn't strike me as a guy a contender would just want to stick in there and sink-or-swim with.

But, that said, I would agree that for the most part the government has been consistent with distancing + facemasks + handwashing. But the media on the other hand. I can't tell you how many times, once it got into the summer months, I'd be sitting there watching CNN and there would be a reporter on the street and the camera would pan over to a group of 20-somethings sitting around without masks and the reporter would just go into the lecture about how they weren't wearing masks. It was easy to see the danger in this. Not wearing a mask is uncool...which morphs into wearing a mask is cool...which morphs into young people thinking they have the license to do anything if they have a mask on because it's cool. I think there was a TON of that from a big percentage of the media over the summer months. Maybe I'm wrong, obviously we all have different personal experiences. All I can say is that I'm in Madison and work with a bunch of 20-somethings and in the spring those people weren't running around like 20-somethings normally do, and by the fall that completely flipped to hearing the conversations of person 1 going to the brewery this weekend, person 2 hitting this bar on Friday night and that restaurant the following night, person 3 going to a party on Friday night, etc, etc, etc. Some folks, not knowing these people personally, could think they are correct in just saying that we are dealing with 20 year old's and they are simply too restless to stay home for 6 months in a row. But knowing these people, and knowing they are probably a really good representation of young college grads across the state, I feel pretty safe in flat out stating that the attitude is definitely more along the lines of "if I'm wearing a mask I am cool and following the rules and; therefore, anything that I decide to do is a good idea." And yeah, maybe not so much government but definitely the media has a lot to do with that IMO. I wasn't going to comment on the Haskins situation, but cannot resist after reading ESPN's awful coverage on the incident. It's the perfect example of how the media has falsely treated the face-mask like it's the cure-all. I'm assuming by now that everyone has seen the photo. I don't think she is sitting on his lap but he clearly has his arm around her and his nose/mouth looks to be less than 6 inches away from her nose/mouth. And it doesn't look like a position where he just grabbed her on the way by for a photo and then she went on her merry way. It's pretty likely they were like that for at least a couple songs (she isn't likely to walk away knowing all the money he has). And yet the coverage from ESPN was "maskless Haskins photographed" "maskless Haskins photographed" "maskless Haskins photographed." Is there anyone outside of the media that are so stupid that they think a mask really would have made any difference in this situation? Look at the stupidity of this article. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30582068/washington-football-team-aware-dwayne-haskins-maskless-strip-club-image-qb-apologizes There isn't one statement in that article that would suggest that Haskins is a total idiot for breaking social distancing rules by partying with strippers. It's all about Haskins "maskless images" (title of article) and " Dwayne Haskins not wearing a mask while attending an event with strippers" once the reader gets into the article. It just boggles the mind that for months the government stated that there was the potential that facemasks could be counter-productive because it would result in people being careless about distancing. And as we saw in Wisconsin, COVID-19 positive cases went up to a high that was nearly 4 times higher than the previous high after the facemask mandate was implemented. And even though we saw cases skyrocket after the mandates, proving the government was likely right the first time, now apparently the new narrative cannot be changed. And the big dumb media keeps promoting the lie as evidenced here...Haskins photographed maskless...instead of the obvious...Haskins photographed with his arm around a stripper with his face within 6 inches of her face.

This team literally handed Christian Yelich the richest deal in the team's history by far roughly nine months ago. Fair or not, I think the Yelich/Cain day back in January 2018 seriously ruined people’s expectations forever to the point where they are expecting a blockbuster deal every year. And if we don’t make one then it’s seen as shopping in the bargain basement. I think hacking 20 million off the payroll from 2019 heading into 2020 probably had a lot more to do with the bargain basement attitude that many of the fans have adopted (myself included).

One would think that a starting pitcher going back to the Padres would be an absolute must because the Cubs aren't exactly loaded in the rotation as it is. Without Darvish their rotation pretty much looks like- #1 - Kyle Hendricks #2 - Alec Mills (119 2/3 innings, 4.14 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 4.64 FIP) #3 - Adbert Alzolay (33 2/3 innings, 4.54 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 4.77 FIP) #4 - Colin Rea (148 1/3 innings, 4.79 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 4.41 FIP #5 - Tyson Miller (5 innings) I'd be pretty unhappy with that if I was a Cubs fan. If they dump Bryant, which I think they will, I don't think they will have enough offensive firepower to compensate for a rotation like this.

Not really typical in biotech either unless you are talking the CEO, COO, Senior VP level of management. Most of the publicly traded biotech companies offer stock purchase programs where employees can buy at a discount, but it's not typical that the rank-and-file workers take part of their pay in stock options. I do have one friend that is working for a startup and gets about 10% of his pay in company stock, but that's a major risk for him. If a big company swoops in and buys the company for twice of what it's worth, then he'll make out like a bandit. If they just pay what the stock is worth, then he gets all his paid but obviously delayed and loses out in the long run. If the company goes belly-up, then 10% of what he should have been paid just vanishes. But that is a unique case with a startup, it's not typical of the business as a whole.

San Diego's population is 1,447,100 million (Metro area 3,379,160), and the average household income in San Diego is $103,655 with a poverty rate of 13.80%. Milwaukee's population is 588,265 (Metro area 1.57 million) with an average household income of $55,556 and a poverty rate of 26.65% Source: World Population Review, 2020 stats. The first thing that the governor and the mayor will say when Attanasio comes with his hand out is that "Milwaukee is a major league city." With the numbers you just posted, I don't think Milwaukee is a major league city when considering the financial model that major league baseball works under.

I’m jealous of the fact the Padres can acquire a player of this magnitude and for them the phrase “give up the farm” has a very different meaning than it would for many clubs. Even after this trade the Padres are still likely to have a consensus top ten farm system in baseball. I'm jealous that the Padres can give Wil Myer an 83 million dollar deal. Then they can give Eric Hosmer a 144 million dollar deal. Then they can give Manny Machado a 300 million dollar deal. Snell is cheap for what he brings (averages 13 million per season over the next three years), but if Darvish is tacked onto that it will represent another 30+ million on the Padres 2021 payroll. San Diego is the 28th largest television market in the USA (4th smallest in MLB) and their home park is just a few years younger than the Brewer's home park. Meanwhile as Brewer fans we sit and wonder if Attanasio can make big times investments like giving Gyorko a 3 million dollar deal. Anybody else get the feeling that Attanasio has positioned himself where he can just sit back for the next few seasons and point at the Yelich contract and say "look at all the money I spent" while running the player payroll at the same level it was at in 2014?

They do. It's called Personal Finance. Here is the course description from my local high school- Personal finance is one of the most useful classes you can take in order to prepare for your future! It is proven that poor financial decisions can lead to an accumulated debt spiral that will prevent you from saving and planning for a secure financial future. Learn to manage your personal financial affairs through real life applications. Areas of study include investing, banking, taxes, credit, acquiring insurance and loans, budgeting, and successful employment skills. Technology is infused throughout this course, with applications ranging from personal money management to preparation of income tax forms to evaluating investment options. Have to disagree with the concept that a Personal Finance course is much more valuable than an AP Chemistry course.

I agree that Darvish would look great in a Brewer uniform but I think everyone knows that finances make this a complete impossibility. Generally I'm the biggest skeptic when it comes to older players with an injury history, but have to admit I kind of like Darvish over the next three seasons. I never bought the tipping pitches claim during his time with the Dodgers. To me it looked like he was having some major mechanical issues but all those problems seemed to be solved at the beginning of 2019. He's been pretty great over the last couple of years. He ran into long ball trouble in 2019 but has an abnormally high HR/FB% (22.8), outside of that the stat sheet looks top-notch. 254 2/3 innings, 3.39 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 4.6 K/BB ratio. xFIP in 2019 was 3.39 and was 2.82 in 2020. Looking at the Pitch Info statistics, he had his all-time highest velocity on his four-seam fastball (96.2) in 2020, but also threw it less than he ever has during his MLB career (15.5%). What is amazing is that Pitch Info has with 6 different pitches being thrown at least 5% of the time (slider, four-seam fastball, curveball, sinker, splitter, cutter). He has the Greinke look to me...a guy with enough movement and a deep enough selection of pitches who is a pretty decent bet to get it done even if his velocity sinks to the 90 MPH territory (Grenike was down to 88.2 MPH last year and still posted a 2.80 FIP and 3.51 xFIP). If I was a big-market team, I'd definitely be interested in Darvish.

I had taken a look at Bell's value last December and concluded that the general public probably had really over-estimated his value. So fast-forward 12 months and there is one less year of control and he's coming off a bad performance in a shortened season. He's a train-wreck wherever you put him defensively and his performance was a bit variable even in his one big season. Here is a link to the thread where I figured going in that he'd have 40+ million in surplus value easily but was more around 25 million after actually looking at all the numbers. viewtopic.php?f=66&t=39403 Pro-rate 2020 out to a full season and Bell has a 2.3 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR combined over the last three seasons. That makes him a really mediocre 0.7 WAR player per season. OK, let's completely throw out 2020 and pretend that didn't ever happen. Doing that bounces Bell to a 4.0 fWAR from 2017-2019 and a 3.8 bWAR player over that same timeframe. So if you ignore 2020 like it didn't even happen, Bell is still only a 1.3 WAR player per season. Steamer has projected him as a 1.1 WAR player in 2021 and I can't argue with that number based on his history. I'd probably just put him as being worth 2.6 WAR total over his next two seasons. Just using the 9 million per WAR that would put him at 23.4 million in value. Arbitration estimate for this year is 7.2 million and I'd guess something like 9.5 million the following year. That would put his surplus value down to just +6.7 million dollars...about the value of a role-player prospect + a fringe prospect. Slashing .261/.349/.466/.814 looks pretty nice until it becomes obvious that the player has major deficiencies in other areas. Granted, Eric Thames had pretty severe splits but he was still a .241/.343/.504/.848 hitter in Milwaukee and there weren't any riots when he left town, and he would have carried a much cheaper price-tag than what Bell will carry the next two seasons.

Wow, a Reds Trade Candidates thread and no one brings up the names Moustakas (Brewers could use a third baseman) or Miley (Brewers could use a lefty starter)?

I'm a Big 12 hater and not necessarily a fan of computer rankings (although college football ranking computer rankings are unbiased in terms of television ratings so that is a big positive), but it's worth noting that the Sagarin rankings had Oklahoma #4 and Oklahoma is a Power 5 Conference Champion. 1 - Alabama 2 - Ohio State 3 - Clemson 4 - Oklahoma 5 - Georgia 6 - Florida 7 - Texas A&M 8 - Notre Dame 9 - Iowa 10 - Iowa State Others of interest- 13 - Cincinnati (9-0) 14 - Indiana (6-1) 15 - Brigham Young (10-1) 17 - Oregon (4-2, highest Pac 12 team) 18 - Southern California (5-1) 38 - Coastal Carolina (11-0)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-jack-coan-enters-transfer-portal/ I hope he finds a good team to transfer to. I still think he has the possibility to be a backup or 3rd string QB in the NFL. The link doesn't work anymore, saying it has been moved or deleted. Is there any other source confirming this because I haven't found one. Just type "Jack Coan transfer portal" into any internet search engine and the result will be a whole bunch of articles that will confirm this.

All reports that I've seen say that he hasn't been cleared. Do you have something that says otherwise? https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uw/2020/12/02/wisconsin-quarterback-jack-coan-ready-play-after-foot-injury/3792392001/ He has been practicing with the team, has been in uniform and has gone through pre-game warmups the last couple of weeks.

People are giving Moran too much credit as a third baseman. There is Ryan Braun historical bad level of third base play. Moran isn't that bad but may be only one level better than Braun. He played 882 1/3 innings at third base in 2019 and had a miserable -21 DRS and -16.0 UZR/150. The Pirates only put him at third for 35 innings in 2020. He's like Hiura bad at third base, the obvious difference between the two being that the Brewers still hope that Hiura will turn into a .290/.370/.510/.880 type hitter. Moran's three year numbers have him at .272/.330/.428/.757. He'd very likely have better offensive numbers in Milwaukee versus Pittsburgh, but his offense would have to go way, way up if he's going to be a valuable player while playing third base everyday. He might have to get to an .800 OPS just to be a 1.0 WAR player as a primary third baseman.

Fixed that for you. Too bad they haven't figured out a way to make a fair three-team bracket because that's what it should be this year.

And that's a real shame, because while Mertz is clearly the more talented player, it's equally as clear that Coan is the better football player. If Mertz was going to be a great player, it didn't take long for Madison to turn him into yet another totally mediocre quarterback. The only thing that made Mertz better than Hornibrook in yesterday's game was that he didn't throw three passes directly at opposing players. The guy looked like he had zero confidence and, the worse thing of all, it didn't look like his teammates had any confidence in him either. And that's rare for the Badgers, as they have a pretty long history of the players really rallying around shaky quarterbacks like Joel Stave. What really bothers me about Coan is that he was cleared to play in early December and the coaches still wouldn't put him in the game after the golden boy recruit got KO'ed. Can't blame the guy for transferring. Despite all the train-wrecks that happened during the year, the 3-3 record still put them in third place in the division, only behind Northwestern and Iowa. Overall decent enough results but it sure would have been nice to have had a closer score against Iowa. Special shout-out to Jon Dietzen who came back, had a good year and was a real savior in yesterday's game.

I was strictly a Gibson man back when I played, which I haven't done for the last 15 years. I still have one old Les Paul in case I ever decide to play again. It breaks my heart to hear that the quality of Gibson has substantially dropped over the last 10 years or so.

At 3 years and 107 days of service time (roughly 3.6 years), Moran has totaled a 0.6 bWAR and 1.1 fWAR. So he's literally about a 0.2 WAR player per full season. Based strictly on a valuation calculation, IMO he really shouldn't even command one rookie ball lottery ticket type prospect. An organizational filler guy is probably as good as the Pirates could expect if they decide to dump Moran's arbitration salary and just move on. Do the Brewers still have Bubba Derby or Nate Orf in their organization? One of those two guys would probably be a fair swap for Moran. MLBTradeRumor's guy projects Moran as a 3.3 million dollar player in arbitration, and I don't like him at that price. But I'll take a guess that MLBTradeRumor's guy has missed on this projection. Have to think the Pirates would have a better idea of what Moran will get in arbitration, and they likely would have declined if they thought he was going to get that much money.

Milner is a typical and very predictable signing for the Brewers. More of "let's find a pitcher with a funky delivery and hope it will take MLB hitters awhile to figure him out." They must think there is some tinkering left to be done with his delivery/release point, because MLB hitters have had no problem figuring him out so far (career 5.74 FIP in 55 2/3 innings).

What idiot posted this? Time to flip-flop just like the average American politician. I see there is a post on MLBTradeRumors saying the Rockies have engaged the Mets in a possible Arenado deal. Note the Rockies have engaged the Mets. If I remember correctly, it seems like all the talking heads thought this would be a relatively safe deal for the Rockies. Only two years in, and it looks like the Rockies really, really, really want to get out from under this deal. I fear the Yelich deal is going to turn out to be a train-wreck for the Brewers. I predict a big offensive year from Yelich in 2021, but we'll see how quick things go south after that. Considering the poor offensive performance in 2020 (granted, small sample size in a strange year), chances are looking pretty good that Yelich does not stay a premier hitter over the next five years like dumb-dumb posted in the quote above.

I've never been a huge Marwin Gonzalez fan and was especially critical of him the last time he came up for free agency, largely because I am an OBP guy and Gonzalez always seemed a bit suspect in that department. Last year his OBP was beyond crappy (.286), almost to the point that you'd have a hard time living with it even if the player was a top-flight centerfielder or shortstop. But if we are talking about going completely Selig with the payroll, then I have to circle back on Gonzalez and wonder, since he will be cheap, cheap, cheap, if his defensive versatility and good third base skills might make him a nice 1-year fit for Milwaukee. bWAR from 2018-2020 = 2.3, 1.8, 0.2. fWAR from 2018-2020 = 1.5, 1.4, 0.2. Looking at DRS and UZR/150, it's pretty likely he'd give the team plus defense at third base or left field, average defense at first base or second base, bad defense at shortstop or right field. I wonder when looking at a questionable bat, versatile defender if he wouldn't wind up just being a 1 year version of Hernan Perez. But where Perez had such dramatic splits versus left and right handed pitching, Gonzalez is a switch-hitter who has been more consistent from each side of the plate. Gonzalez was much better versus righties in 2020, but was much better against lefties in 2019. Career numbers, .321 OBP and .732 OPS against righties, .307 OBP and .724 OPS against lefties, so fairly equal between the two sides. Steamer projects him as a .251/.323/.411/.734, 92 wRC+, 0.6 WAR player in 2021. I'd bet that if he is playing everyday at a position where he is good defensively, like 3B, that there is a pretty good chance the WAR is pushed to 1.0 or higher. If the price stays in the 1 year, 3 - 3.5 million range, then I think he's probably one of the better 1 year, bandage type possibility for the Brewers. Even if he totally craps out with the bat, he would still bring some value as a late inning defensive replacement for the right side of the infield (where the starters could end up being complete butchers with the glove), or depending on the day, a middle inning switch-hitting pinch-hitter. Could end up overpaying for a player like this, but hard for it to become a complete disaster because versatile guys like this always seem to have some way to contribute. Even if Stearns is looking at having Hiura at 2B, Arcia at SS and Urias at 3B, Gonzalez still fits as a plus-utility type player.