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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Chad Patrick is at it again with 6 IP | 4 H | 1 BB | 5 K and only 1 ER via solo HR. Sounds scored their only run on a Yonny Hernandez single followed by a pair of Durham errors on batted balls by Owen Miller and Brewer Hicklen. Tied at one heading to top of seven with Francisco Mejia due up.
  2. sveumrules
    Using raw OPS is a bad idea when league wide offense is down considerably from last year... 2023: 248/320/414 2024: 239/312/385 The last time league wide position player OPS was lower that its current .697 mark was in 1976 (.692), though 1981 (.698) barely snuck by. These things tend to trend upward as the weather warms up so there is still time to catch 2022 (.706 OPS) or 2014 (.711 OPS) for the lowest league wide season for position player offense in recent memory. Either way, the recent lows may have been somewhat overstated. In the 23 games since the hot start Brewers batters are at 232/317/376 (101 wRC+) so they have been essentially average even while struggling without Yelich in the lineup.
  3. sveumrules
    I don’t think the position player group is thin at all… Veterans Performing (5) Contreras (161 wRC+), Adames (129 wRC+), Hoskins (119 wRC+), Sanchez (145 wRC+), Yelich (187 wRC+) Youngsters Performing (3) Turang (138 wRC+), Perkins (118 wRC+), Ortiz (143 wRC+) Young Struggling But Need PAs (2) Frelick (87 wRC+), Chourio (74 wRC+) After that Monasterio hasn’t done much in limited run this year, but is a perfectly cromulent 5th IF. Bauers has lived up to expectations in the box (unfortunately) but is our only decent 1B in the field so I’m fine with him on the roster as the 12th/13th man now that Sanchez/Yelich are both healthy and playing. Dunn should be playing in AAA everyday not only for his development but so Murphy doesn’t keep writing his name on the lineup card instead of Ortiz.
  4. sveumrules
    With regards to Zamora/Murray slow starts, my first thought was maybe something along the lines of Biloxi Blues repeating the level after decent full season efforts there in 2023. But it looks like the Shuckers aren’t the only Southern League club that isn’t quite cracking at the plate in the early going… 2023 LgAvg 5.09 R/G | .740 OPS 2024 LgAvg 3.81 R/G | .655 OPS Not sure if it’s just early season weather, or issues with the baseball, or composition of the player pool, or a combination of all those and more, but something is seriously amiss in the Southern League. That said, Freddy’s 255/352/361 line last year shook out to a 97 wRC+. His 195/350/305 so far this year comes out at a 109 wRC+ since he’s only lost 57 points of OPS versus the baseline falling by 85 points. At the same time his 350 OBP is also majorly propped up by 7 HBP already in only 103 PAs (6.8 HBP%) compared to 14 HBP in 950 career PAs (1.5 HBP%) prior to this year.
  5. sveumrules
    In the 23 games since Yelich’s back flare up the Brewers have scored 4.22 R/G (4.35 R/G is MLB Average) with a 103 wRC+. Compared to the 92 wRC+ they posted last year that’s still a pretty big step up. As for what to expect rest of season, FanGraphs projects them to score 4.40 R/G from here on out. PECOTA sees their true talent on offense somewhere around 732 runs scored on the season, take out the 173 they’ve already scored in 35 games and that also shakes out to 4.40 R/G for the remaining 127.
  6. sveumrules
    Black played one game at 3B this year (with a costly gaffe in the field to boot) versus twenty one at 1B / nine at DH and counting. With Ortiz, Dunn, and Monasterio ahead of him on the 3B depth chart it doesn’t look like he is in line for much time at the hot corner. The writing has been on the wall for a bit that Black’s 3B defense might not be up to snuff and the arrow is pointing further in that direction here in the early going.
  7. sveumrules
    Contreras (161 wRC+), Ortiz (135 wRC+), Perkins (129 wRC+), Adames (127 wRC+) and Turang (123 wRC+) are over half a lineup of bright spots, just need Murph to start playing Joey everyday. Rhys (116 wRC+) and Gary (120 wRC+) have pretty much delivered to expectations and are a massive upgrade over our recent 1B/DH/backup C production. Once Yelich returns that gives you seven or eight lineup spots of above average hitters on the daily with the last couple open for some mix of Chourio, Frelick and Black.
  8. sveumrules
    Brewers in the midst of their third three game losing streak of the young season already. (I guess that means they are 20-5 in their other 25 games though?) After their first three game losing streak they won four in a row. After their second three game losing streak they won three in a row. Hopefully they can bounce back similarly again starting tonight.
  9. sveumrules
    Bauers underperformed his expected StatCast numbers in 2023, guessing the Brewers FO saw him as someone due for positive regression. Out of 362 batters with at least 200 PA last year, Bauers 18.7 Barrel% ranked 5th, with expected batting average and slugging marks of .230/.480 compared to actual marks of .202/.413. Add it all up and his expected wOBA of .336 in 2023 was in the range of familiar names like the still unsigned Belt (.336), Justin Turner (.336), Teoscar Hernandez (.336), Manny Machado (.335), Willy Adames (.335), William Contreras (.335). I’d keep Bauers around for now since neither of Rhys or Black are particularly adept with the leather. When Yelich is ready to return send Dunn down for regular PAs in Nashville.
  10. sveumrules
    What do you consider par? According to the FanGraphs leaderboards Brewers OF are currently tied with the Orioles for 9th at 1.9 WAR. Their 105 wRC+ is 13th, their +1.7 BsR is tied for 6th, their +8 OAA is tied for 8th.
  11. sveumrules
    Heal up quick Sarge Hulka
  12. sveumrules
    I don’t see any of these questions as particularly hard. 1. When Hall is ready to return you ease him back via low leverage long relief outings or in a piggyback type role unless there is a pressing need in the rotation. 2. Sanchez (28 PA) hasn’t been the primary DH, Hoskins (60 PA) has. Gary’s 680 OPS works out to a 111 wRC+ which is way above the standard for a backup catcher and perfectly cromulent for a sometimes DH. 3. As long as they are in the race they aren’t dealing Adames. 4. The rotation is currently fine. Peralta, Rea, Ross, Wilson and Myers are a solid five with Gasser on the doorstep. Roll with in house options until the deadline.
  13. sveumrules
    Maybe Eduarqui Fernandez could be a promotion candidate to help out at AA? Off to a hot start with an 892 OPS at Wisco and at 22 years old is one of their older regulars. Two of the healthy OFs in Biloxi - Jose Acosta (458 OPS) and Lamar Sparks (371 OPS) - have been pretty dreadful in the early going to further exacerbate the shortage of bodies. Could then send one of Kay-Lan Nicasia or Yhoswar Garcia up to Wisco to fill Eduarqui’s spot.
  14. sveumrules
    FanGraphs pretty much has it as a two team race… MIL 41,2% WinDiv CHI 33.1% WinDiv STL 13.7% WinDiv CIN 9.5% WinDiv PIT 2.5% WinDiv PECOTA thinks the Cards are still in the thick of things… CHI 33.9% WinDiv STL 29.3% WinDiv MIL 27.6% WinDiv CIN 9.3% WinDiv PIT 0.3% WinDiv My own personal brain computer is more in line with FG at something like 34% each for MIL/CHI, 15% each for STL/CIN and 2% for PIT. Here’s how the NLC clubs have stacked up in some key statistical categories so far with MLB ranks for additional scale… Position Player WAR MIL (7.3, 2nd) | CHI (3.4, 17th) | STL (1.5, 24th) | CIN (1.3, 25th) | PIT (0.5, 27th) wRC+ MIL (118, 2nd) | CHI (101, 15th) | STL (86, 25th) | PIT (86, 26th) | CIN (85, 27th) Outs Above Average MIL (+7, 8th) | STL (-3, 18th) | CIN (-8, 26th) | CHI (-11, 28th) | PIT (-13, 29th) Whole Staff ERA- CIN (90, 9th) | PIT (93, 10th) | MIL (96, 14th) | CHI (96, 15th) | STL (100, 17th) Starting Pitcher rWAR CHI (4.2, 4th) | PIT (3.3, 9th) | CIN (3.3, 10th) | STL (2.1, 18th) | MIL (2.0, 19th) Bullpen Win Probability Added MIL (+3.05, 3rd) | CIN (+0.82, 13th) | STL (+0.69, 15th) | CHI (+0.47, 19th) | PIT (+0.43, 20th)
  15. sveumrules
    Not really. Brewers relievers posted +41.55 Win Probability Added (1st in MLB) while Counsell was making the calls from 2016-23.
  16. sveumrules
    Totally missed him in the Smokies lineup yesterday, but cool to see old friend Hayden Cantrelle off to a hot start at 333/389/606 (195 wRC+) over his first 37 PA of the year.
  17. sveumrules
    Thanks for the clarification, that’s what I get for relying on whatever Carolina League intern is in charge of updating the GameCast.
  18. sveumrules
    After a double and wild pitch to open the game, Josh Knoth briefly settled in retiring five straight, one via swinging K. From GameCast it appears as though he got hit by a comebacker with two outs in the bottom of the second though. Has stayed in the game but walked the next batter on four pitches (one wild, two in the dirt) before David Garcia bails him out on a caught stealing to end the inning.
  19. sveumrules
    Since that two game pounding at the hands of the Yankees, the Brewers pitching staff has given up five runs in four games. I'm leaning more towards aberration.
  20. sveumrules
    From 2019-23 Brewers relievers tallied +27.32 Win Probability Added (2nd in MLB) with Craig making the calls. Craig's peak managing the bullpen was when they put up +11.73 WPA last year, the 5th highest mark out of 720 individual team bullpen seasons since the calendar flipped to the year 2000. 2018 bullpen came in at +5.65 WPA, still plenty good but six wins short of 2023.
  21. sveumrules
    I'd go with Isaac Collins personally. IC: 288/414/613 (156 wRC+) 18.2 BB% | 16.2 K% BH: 316/429/526 (147 wRC+) 14.3 BB% | 25.2 K%
  22. sveumrules
    Team has gone 10-8 and hit for a 108 wRC+ (8th in MLB) since Christian’s back flared up. No doubt he should give them a boost upon his return, but given how the rest of the team has held their own during his absence I don’t think there’s any need to rush things.
  23. sveumrules
    Can we please just save Bauers for pinch hitting and 1B defensive replacement duty only at this point? Would much rather see Chourio in the OF at Wrigley and getting the PAs. And what kind of dirt does Oliver Dunn (4.5 BB% | 38.8 K% | 68 wRC+) have on Murph that he keeps getting starts over Ortiz who has hit better (16.7 BB% | 17.9 K% | 130 wRC+) and is a better defender too?
  24. sveumrules
    KEEP Giannis, Lillard, Khris, Bobby, AJG, AJJ, MarJon, Livingston, Thanasis RE-SIGN PatBev DEAL Brook ($23M), Patty C ($9.4M) Would prefer to keep both picks this year but understand they might need to include them to facilitate deals elsewhere. Pretty much the same thing with Bobby, would prefer they keep him but also understand he’s probably their most valuable asset outside the Big 3 so might end up getting dealt.
  25. sveumrules
    Man, just a great month for Brewers relievers throughout the system. Props to @Terry and @pitchleague for taking notice of Enoli earlier in spring. The thing with Paredes is he’s out of options so once he gets the call he pretty much is gonna need to carry over that effectiveness right out of the gates in order to stick with the big club.
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