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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I agree the bullpen is unlikely to match their WPA from last year, but I think the idea is that hopefully improved offense will give the bullpen a little more breathing room and less win probability they’ll be responsible for adding themselves. Last years 92 wRC+ shook out to -61.4 batting runs and -5.09 WPA, so getting back to average would be something like five to six wins up depending how that hypothetical additional offense is spread out across the leverage spectrum. If the bullpen regresses from +11.73 WPA down to something like 2018 (+5.65), 2019 (+5.22) or 2021 (+5.90) levels that’s around six wins down. Starting pitchers came in at 15.8 rWAR last year, if they regress down to 2019 (9.8) or 2018 (11.2) levels that’s another five to six wins down. Obviously that’s a lot of assumptions and back of the envelope math, but this feels like around an 86 to 88 wins or so kind of team to me.
  2. sveumrules
    The players union is pretty strongly against any sort of deadline in FA… “We actually made proposals to that effect to the MLBPA. They were not warmly received,” -Manfred I don’t have a problem with things as currently constituted. The game of baseball is long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity, winter is long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity. Free agency being long and drawn out with regular periods of inactivity flows harmoniously with the natural order of things.
  3. sveumrules
    I’m not sure what “(tier 1) prospect” is supposed to mean, but by my definition the only tier 1 prospect in the Padres system would be Salas. I’d say Merrill is a clear tier below Salas and easily a tier above everyone else. If one wanted to put De Vries in this tier too I could see it on upside, but he’s still so far away. Third tier for me would be the pitchers - Snelling, Lesko, Iriarte and Thorpe. This would be the most aggressive placement I could see giving to Zavala but considering the hit tool and corner OF risk, I’d have him as a tier four prospect at best, or not nearly enough to get Frelick by himself.
  4. sveumrules
    Burst on the scene back in 2018 as a 5’6” 17th round pick going 6-1 with a 2.18 ERA over 33 IP (mostly at Wisco when it was still low A) with a pretty ridiculous 54 Ks to only 7 BBs. Farm system was pretty weak back then so I believe he got some back end Top 20 love. Followed that up with a decent 2019 on the mound, 59 IP of 3.19 ERA split between A+/AA with 77 K and 25 BB. Also played 16 games in CF batting 333/391/381 over 69 PA with a nice 7 K vs 6 BB split. Then the pandemic happened, he got hurt and essentially lost all of 2020, 2021 and 2022. Bounced back nicely last year at Nashville with 57 IP of 2.53 ERA and 74 K vs 31 BB, but got crushed in his tiny MLB sample - 3 HR in 3 IP. Looking at the International League leaderboard minimum 50 IP last year that 2.53 ERA was good for 2nd lowest with Thomas Pannone (2.70) and Ethan Small (3.18) also cracking the Top 10 out of the Nashville pen. Andrews 31.1 K% came in 6th and his 16.1% swinging strike rate came in 4th.
  5. sveumrules
    Tigers fans are going on a decade of sad days now, last making the postseason in 2014. Since then they have one winning season (86-76 in 2016), and their 579-722 overall record is dead last in MLB. Torkelson has -14 DRS and -8 OAA so far in his brief career at 1B, playing Hiura (-16 DRS and -12 OAA career at 2B) next to him would be brutal. Throw in that Detroit 3B posted an MLB worst -22 DRS and -18 OAA last year and that’d be an almost 2007 Brewers level disregard for infield defense.
  6. sveumrules
    Over the last two seasons since changing his repertoire Junis has a 4.18 ERA and 3.69 FIP covering 198 IP. Considering FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than actual ERA is they are projecting Junis for a healthy bit of regression already.
  7. sveumrules
    There are 853 pitchers listed on the FanGraphs depth charts. 128 of them have a projection below a 3.90 ERA. 139 of them have a projection above a 4.80 ERA. They are projecting 68.7% of pitchers between that range, well short of 90%. So...nope.
  8. sveumrules
    Padres are trying to cut salary, so them giving up prospects to pay Adames $12.25M to play 2B (when his best attribute is SS defense) is probably unlikely at this point. Putting a gold glove calibre 3B at DH also puts a huge dent in Machado's value. Can't imagine Willy would be too happy about moving off SS before hitting free agency either.
  9. sveumrules
    As Dame goes, the Bucks go... 20-2 when he shoots 45% from the field, 15-14 when he doesn't. 24-3 when he scores 25 points, 11-13 when he doesn't. 0-5 when he hasn't played. I'll give him a first half pass between getting divorced and going from being thee guy to having to be more of a 1B, but increased consistency from him down the stretch and into the playoffs would be the most impactful change.
  10. sveumrules
    The Brewers are already projected to have a decent rotation. If all the things you outlined fall into place they'll easily be a Top 10 rotation. Last year the rotation itself wasn't any great shakes with their 11.2 FIP based WAR coming in at 13th. Once the defense entered the equation though (+68 DRS | 2nd), the rotation came out at 15.8 runs allowed based WAR, 4th. The Brewers top notch defense (+249 DRS | 3rd from 2017-23) and demonstrated ability to coax more out of pitchers than their name or past performance might imply (3.88 ERA vs 4.08 FIP from 2017-23) has been a huge part of their success over the last seven seasons.
  11. sveumrules
    Projections certainly aren't gospel, the average error bars around team win projections are normally something like plus or minus 8 wins per season, for individual players the average error bars are around 10 to 12 points of OPS+ or ERA+ in either direction. Even with those error bars, they are exponentially better at projecting future outcomes than any single human brain can muster. The Brewers have also beaten their projections more consistently than any other team over the last seven full seasons at a total of +58 wins, so it's safe to assume whatever internal projections they use are better than the publicly available ones.
  12. sveumrules
    Thorpe and Iriarte would feel a little light to me. Sub one of them out for one of Snelling or Dylan Lesko and I think that's a lot closer to what I'd be looking for.
  13. sveumrules
    184,110 PAs in 2023 at a .320 league average OBP maths out to 125,195 outs. 41,844 Ks / 125,295 outs = 33.4% of outs were Ks. That leaves 66.6% of outs that were registered by fielders, just shy of twice as many or still the overwhelming majority. One of the main reasons the Brewers have given up the 3rd fewest hits in MLB going back all the way to 2017 (four years before Burnes, Woody and Peralta put it all together in 2021) is because they have consistently been among the best teams (+249 DRS | 3rd) at turning batted balls into outs instead of hits.
  14. sveumrules
    I think so, yes. Hoskins has been far more consistent than Soler throughout their careers. Rhys has five seasons between 2.0 and 2.4 WAR. Soler has one season at 3.7 WAR back in 2019 with the juiced ball, a 1.9 WAR season last year and that's it. His third best season was 0.7 WAR as a rookie back in 2014. 2021 RH: 443 PA | 127 wRC+ | 2.0 WAR JS: 602 PA | 100 wRC+ | -0.3 WAR 2022 RH: 672 PA | 122 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR JS: 306 PA | 95 wRC+ | 0.5 WAR Soler's 2023 (126 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR) actually came in a little lower overall than Hoskins 2022 (122 wRC+ | 2.3 WAR). Career RH: 2877 PA | 126 wRC+ | 11.6 WAR (2.4 WAR / 600 PA) JS: 3472 PA | 112 wRC+ | 7.4 WAR (1.3 WAR / 600 PA)
  15. sveumrules
    Rosario was re-signed that offseason for 2/18, so they had no problem bringing him back after his postseason success. Maybe they preferred him to Soler because he was cheaper and could still play the field even though he doesn't have nearly the same power potential. They gave Ozuna 4/65 covering 2021-24, so far they've gotten 74 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR (2021), then 89 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR (2022) before he finally paid it off this last year with a 139 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR. So for the first three years and $46M of the Ozuna deal they got a total of 2.5 WAR and one productive season. Therein lies the danger of paying big money for multiple years of a bat only DH who doesn't provide value anywhere else.
  16. sveumrules
    Right, even after winning World Series MVP with the Braves they didn’t think he was worth retaining at the 3/36 with two opt outs he got from the Marlins.
  17. sveumrules
    The metrics aren’t just from earlier in his career, among 102 OF with at least 1,400 innings from 2021-23 Soler comes in at -17 DRS (93rd), -12 OAA (91st) and -10.9 UZR (95th). The argument against him being a valuable hitter for the next three years from age 32-34 is that he was only a valuable hitter for one of the previous three seasons from age 29-31.
  18. sveumrules
    Yeah, last three years it’s… Sanchez (1178 PAs) 99 wRC+ | +15.8 DEF | 4.6 WAR Soler (1488 PAs) 109 wRC+ | -36.8 DEF | 2.0 WAR Soler is a great example for how high the bar is for bat only players to provide any meaningful value. Last year he put up a 126 wRC+, that’s good, but still only worth 1.9 WAR when all you can do is DH on account of brutal OF defense. The two years before that where he put up 908 PAs of only a 98 wRC+ he was a fraction above replacement level at 0.1 WAR, 147th of 151 players with at least 900 PAs from 2021-22.
  19. sveumrules
    International League was brutal for pitchers last year. League average ERA was 5.18 and league average WHIP was at 1.536. There were only 22 pitchers who threw at least 100 IP, but among that group Gasser ranked 2nd in ERA and 4th in WHIP. His 3.32 K/BB ratio and 3.71 FIP also both ranked 2nd. One of the guys with a lower WHIP was Evan McKendry who we acquired from TBR for Alex Jackson.
  20. sveumrules
    Looks like Miami will be without Butler, Rozier & Richardson tonight and Bucks starters all only played between 23-30 minutes with the easy win last night, so hopefully should be able to take care of business on the B2B. Then last game before the break is at Memphis, who are currently on a nine game losing streak and will be playing the second game of their own B2B. Good opportunity to go into the ASB with some nice positive momentum if they can capitalize on it.
  21. sveumrules
    Bucks hold the Nuggets to 95 points for their second straight win holding a team under 100. Last time that they held opponents under 100 in back to back games was November 2021.
  22. sveumrules
    That’s pretty much what it boils down to. Limiting walks helps, getting grounders and soft contact is good too, but ultimately Ks are King. There are 104 pitchers with at least 300 IP since 2021. Sorting the leaderboard by ERA- it looks like the Top 8 all have an above average K%+. First guy with a below average K rate is Sandy Alcantara at #9 though his 99 K%+ is just the tiniest bit below the line. The aforementioned Miley (76 K%+ | 75 ERA-) at #11 is the first guy on the list notably below average at getting punch outs, with Ranger Suarez (97 K%+ | 76 ERA-) at #12 another guy just below average. After that everyone from #13 to #43 on the list has a K%+ of 99 or better with the exception of Marcus Stroman (93 K%+ | 84 ERA-) at #34 on the leaderboard. All told there are 44 pitchers over the last three years to have posted an 89 ERA- or lower over at least 300 IP. Of those 44 only Miley, Suarez, Stroman and Martin Perez (82 K%+ | 89 ERA-) posted a K%+ below 99. The other three guys joining Alcantara with a 99 K%+ were Jordan Montgomery, Merrill Kelly and Patrick Sandoval.
  23. sveumrules
    Apparently the ask from the Reds was something like three of Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, Connor Phillips or Chase Petty. Those were the #2, 3, 4, and 6 Reds prospects on the last MLB list with respective BTV surplus values of $14.1M, $14.9M, $26.2M and $13M currently. From that I would gather the White Sox value Cease closer to $50M in surplus value so would probably want something like Frelick, plus two of Gasser, Wilken and Lara at minimum.
  24. sveumrules
    Anytime someone posts a 2.58 ERA vs a 4.13 FIP, they are likely due for some regression on their run prevention. The good news for Wilson is that the Brewers were the best team in MLB last year when it came to FIP beating with a 3.73 team ERA to go along with a 4.21 team FIP. It wasn’t a one year blip either, going all the way back to 2016 they have been the 3rd biggest FIP beaters in MLB at a 3.91 team ERA vs a 4.12 team FIP. I’d expect some regression, but not as much as the projections are anticipating, because they struggle with consistent FIP beaters - a big reason the Brewers have consistently beat their projections. Look at Wade Miley, going back to his first stint with the Brewers in 2018 he has a 3.43 ERA vs a 4.24 FIP making him the biggest FIP beater in MLB with at least 500 IP. Still, even with a sample that large of beating his FIP, the best projection he has is for a 4.24 ERA coming off of a 3.26 ERA and 4.24 FIP over the last three years and 300 IP.
  25. sveumrules
    Dunn played all of his age 25 season at AA, Devanney played most of his age 25 season in AA (459 PAs) with a brief cameo at AAA (56 PAs). Here’s how their production lined up… Dunn 271/396/506 (148 wRC+) 16.2 BB% | 27.5 K% | 16 SB / 5 CS Devanney 264/342/496 (116 wRC+) 9.3 BB% | 21.4 K% | 6 SB / 2 CS Main advantage Dunn has is that he walks way more with those extra 54 points of OBP accounting for most of his 32 point edge in wRC+. He also is better on the bases with another 12 SB / 0 CS while lighting up the AFL. Devanney has the edge on defense and doesn’t strike out as much, but as the wRC+ bears out Dunn’s seven extra walks every 100 PAs are way more valuable than Devsnney’s six fewer strikeouts.
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