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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Brewers in the midst of their third three game losing streak of the young season already. (I guess that means they are 20-5 in their other 25 games though?) After their first three game losing streak they won four in a row. After their second three game losing streak they won three in a row. Hopefully they can bounce back similarly again starting tonight.
  2. sveumrules
    Bauers underperformed his expected StatCast numbers in 2023, guessing the Brewers FO saw him as someone due for positive regression. Out of 362 batters with at least 200 PA last year, Bauers 18.7 Barrel% ranked 5th, with expected batting average and slugging marks of .230/.480 compared to actual marks of .202/.413. Add it all up and his expected wOBA of .336 in 2023 was in the range of familiar names like the still unsigned Belt (.336), Justin Turner (.336), Teoscar Hernandez (.336), Manny Machado (.335), Willy Adames (.335), William Contreras (.335). I’d keep Bauers around for now since neither of Rhys or Black are particularly adept with the leather. When Yelich is ready to return send Dunn down for regular PAs in Nashville.
  3. sveumrules
    What do you consider par? According to the FanGraphs leaderboards Brewers OF are currently tied with the Orioles for 9th at 1.9 WAR. Their 105 wRC+ is 13th, their +1.7 BsR is tied for 6th, their +8 OAA is tied for 8th.
  4. sveumrules
    Heal up quick Sarge Hulka
  5. sveumrules
    I don’t see any of these questions as particularly hard. 1. When Hall is ready to return you ease him back via low leverage long relief outings or in a piggyback type role unless there is a pressing need in the rotation. 2. Sanchez (28 PA) hasn’t been the primary DH, Hoskins (60 PA) has. Gary’s 680 OPS works out to a 111 wRC+ which is way above the standard for a backup catcher and perfectly cromulent for a sometimes DH. 3. As long as they are in the race they aren’t dealing Adames. 4. The rotation is currently fine. Peralta, Rea, Ross, Wilson and Myers are a solid five with Gasser on the doorstep. Roll with in house options until the deadline.
  6. sveumrules
    Maybe Eduarqui Fernandez could be a promotion candidate to help out at AA? Off to a hot start with an 892 OPS at Wisco and at 22 years old is one of their older regulars. Two of the healthy OFs in Biloxi - Jose Acosta (458 OPS) and Lamar Sparks (371 OPS) - have been pretty dreadful in the early going to further exacerbate the shortage of bodies. Could then send one of Kay-Lan Nicasia or Yhoswar Garcia up to Wisco to fill Eduarqui’s spot.
  7. sveumrules
    FanGraphs pretty much has it as a two team race… MIL 41,2% WinDiv CHI 33.1% WinDiv STL 13.7% WinDiv CIN 9.5% WinDiv PIT 2.5% WinDiv PECOTA thinks the Cards are still in the thick of things… CHI 33.9% WinDiv STL 29.3% WinDiv MIL 27.6% WinDiv CIN 9.3% WinDiv PIT 0.3% WinDiv My own personal brain computer is more in line with FG at something like 34% each for MIL/CHI, 15% each for STL/CIN and 2% for PIT. Here’s how the NLC clubs have stacked up in some key statistical categories so far with MLB ranks for additional scale… Position Player WAR MIL (7.3, 2nd) | CHI (3.4, 17th) | STL (1.5, 24th) | CIN (1.3, 25th) | PIT (0.5, 27th) wRC+ MIL (118, 2nd) | CHI (101, 15th) | STL (86, 25th) | PIT (86, 26th) | CIN (85, 27th) Outs Above Average MIL (+7, 8th) | STL (-3, 18th) | CIN (-8, 26th) | CHI (-11, 28th) | PIT (-13, 29th) Whole Staff ERA- CIN (90, 9th) | PIT (93, 10th) | MIL (96, 14th) | CHI (96, 15th) | STL (100, 17th) Starting Pitcher rWAR CHI (4.2, 4th) | PIT (3.3, 9th) | CIN (3.3, 10th) | STL (2.1, 18th) | MIL (2.0, 19th) Bullpen Win Probability Added MIL (+3.05, 3rd) | CIN (+0.82, 13th) | STL (+0.69, 15th) | CHI (+0.47, 19th) | PIT (+0.43, 20th)
  8. sveumrules
    Not really. Brewers relievers posted +41.55 Win Probability Added (1st in MLB) while Counsell was making the calls from 2016-23.
  9. sveumrules
    Totally missed him in the Smokies lineup yesterday, but cool to see old friend Hayden Cantrelle off to a hot start at 333/389/606 (195 wRC+) over his first 37 PA of the year.
  10. sveumrules
    Thanks for the clarification, that’s what I get for relying on whatever Carolina League intern is in charge of updating the GameCast.
  11. sveumrules
    After a double and wild pitch to open the game, Josh Knoth briefly settled in retiring five straight, one via swinging K. From GameCast it appears as though he got hit by a comebacker with two outs in the bottom of the second though. Has stayed in the game but walked the next batter on four pitches (one wild, two in the dirt) before David Garcia bails him out on a caught stealing to end the inning.
  12. sveumrules
    Since that two game pounding at the hands of the Yankees, the Brewers pitching staff has given up five runs in four games. I'm leaning more towards aberration.
  13. sveumrules
    From 2019-23 Brewers relievers tallied +27.32 Win Probability Added (2nd in MLB) with Craig making the calls. Craig's peak managing the bullpen was when they put up +11.73 WPA last year, the 5th highest mark out of 720 individual team bullpen seasons since the calendar flipped to the year 2000. 2018 bullpen came in at +5.65 WPA, still plenty good but six wins short of 2023.
  14. sveumrules
    I'd go with Isaac Collins personally. IC: 288/414/613 (156 wRC+) 18.2 BB% | 16.2 K% BH: 316/429/526 (147 wRC+) 14.3 BB% | 25.2 K%
  15. sveumrules
    Team has gone 10-8 and hit for a 108 wRC+ (8th in MLB) since Christian’s back flared up. No doubt he should give them a boost upon his return, but given how the rest of the team has held their own during his absence I don’t think there’s any need to rush things.
  16. sveumrules
    Can we please just save Bauers for pinch hitting and 1B defensive replacement duty only at this point? Would much rather see Chourio in the OF at Wrigley and getting the PAs. And what kind of dirt does Oliver Dunn (4.5 BB% | 38.8 K% | 68 wRC+) have on Murph that he keeps getting starts over Ortiz who has hit better (16.7 BB% | 17.9 K% | 130 wRC+) and is a better defender too?
  17. sveumrules
    KEEP Giannis, Lillard, Khris, Bobby, AJG, AJJ, MarJon, Livingston, Thanasis RE-SIGN PatBev DEAL Brook ($23M), Patty C ($9.4M) Would prefer to keep both picks this year but understand they might need to include them to facilitate deals elsewhere. Pretty much the same thing with Bobby, would prefer they keep him but also understand he’s probably their most valuable asset outside the Big 3 so might end up getting dealt.
  18. sveumrules
    Man, just a great month for Brewers relievers throughout the system. Props to @Terry and @pitchleague for taking notice of Enoli earlier in spring. The thing with Paredes is he’s out of options so once he gets the call he pretty much is gonna need to carry over that effectiveness right out of the gates in order to stick with the big club.
  19. sveumrules
    Interesting that Peralta is listed as the probable for Sunday since that would be the day Wilson is lined up for. Guess Freddy only threw 66 pitches last time out so bumping him up a day to face CHI on four days rest makes sense. If Peralta is serving his suspension could just drop Wilson in then on the preferred five days rest, last pitched 4/29. Gasser last pitched 4/30 (4 IP | 68 pitches) so he could be an option on four days rest or maybe at some point later on in the upcoming stretch of 13 consecutive games.
  20. sveumrules
    Yeah, definitely nice to see him get off to a good start even if it’s still small sample territory. One encouraging thing over his minor league career even with the struggles at Wisco last year is more walks (83) than strikeouts (77) over 537 PAs. Also always like a lefty hitting catcher too. He didn’t have much of a platoon split last year (707 OPS vs RHP in 383 PA | 691 OPS vs LHP in 87 PA) but is killing RHP this year with a 930 OPS (only 48 PA though).
  21. sveumrules
    Biloxi added a run top of six with a Dirden triple and Yerzy sac fly. Bo Bo came back out for his third frame and put up another zero by inducing a 5-4-3 DP after a one out walk.
  22. sveumrules
    And Yujanyer strikes out the side in the ninth to go nine up nine down six strikeouts in his A+ debut.
  23. sveumrules
    Yujanyer 1-2-3 again in the eight ending the inning with a swinging strikeout.
  24. sveumrules
    Bo Bowman has gone two scoreless for Biloxi with just an infield single on his line. Been efficient with only 23 pitches, see if he comes out for one more.
  25. sveumrules
    Loons were probably happy to run Rudy from the game after his dominant start. Then Yujanyer steps to the mound and strikes out the first two he faces before getting a fly out for Great Lakes sixth 1-2-3 frame of the night.
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