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sveumrules

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  1. sveumrules
    Cooper 2019-23: 111 wRC+ | 4.0 WAR Canha 2019-23: 125 wRC+ | 12.8 WAR Cooper has been about 14% worse than Canha over the last five seasons by wRC+. Cooper 2021-23: 109 wRC+ | 2.2 WAR Canha 2021-23: 118 wRC+ | 7.8 WAR Little closer if we narrow it down to the last three years, but Canha still has an 8 point edge in wRC+. There's also the concerning sign that Cooper went from a 129 wRC+ in 2021, to a 112 wRC+ in 2022, to a 96 wRC+ in 2023 versus Canha remaining more stable at 116, 126 and 111 the last three seasons.
  2. sveumrules
    Just like Jon Singleton was the Brewers first baseman for 23.
  3. sveumrules
    5/80, though ended up less than that (closer to $64M I believe) when he opted out of COVID year.
  4. sveumrules
    Believe $82M is the 3rd largest guarantee in Brewers history behind the Braun and Yelich extensions.
  5. sveumrules
    Mitchell totaled 64 G | 268 PA in 2021, followed that up with 96 G | 357 PA in 2022 and 27 G | 108 PA in 2023. He’s missed major time all three of his professional seasons due to injury.
  6. sveumrules
    Victor Robles hit 34 HR in 1,810 minor league PAs. one HR per every 53.24 PAs. Chourio has 47 HR in 1,211 minor league PAs, one HR per every 25.77 PAs.
  7. sveumrules
    Luis Robert is probably the closest comp among players with zero service time to have signed an extension, why no mention of him?
  8. sveumrules
    Before graduating from prospect status at age 22, Hiura was ranked #20, #17, and #6 by MLB, BA and BPro. His bat was viewed as “can’t miss” but his glove ultimately limited his perceived ceiling and prevented him from reaching the level of prospect status Jackson has achieved being consensus Top 3 at age 19. Of course, prospect status alone doesn’t guarantee future results in MLB, but college bat no glove second baseman and tooled up teenage CF are just two completely different profiles.
  9. sveumrules
    My understanding is if the Brewers make a QO, and Willy turns it down to sign a contact over $50M, the Brewers receive a pick between the end of the first round and Comp Round A.
  10. sveumrules
    thru 07/04 (288 PA) 247/303/396 (85 wRC+) 6.9 BB% | 21.5 K% post-07/04 (266 PA) 325/380/551 (144 wRC+) 7.9 BB% | 13.5 K% Using Jackson's full season stats for AA is probably selling him a little short considering the tacky balls used at the start of the season, that any 19 year old will likely struggle upon initial exposure to AA, and that he made such a remarkable turnaround as the season wore on.
  11. sveumrules
    Not sure how Gordon Ash plays into things, but I don't think either catcher needs to be moved any time soon. If Quero turns out legit behind the plate you can start him 90-100 games there with the remaining 60-70 going to Contreras plus another 70 or so at DH to round out his workload.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, even if the options are exercised it would be 3/48, so you essentially need to get at least five WAR just to break even. Eloy has 5.4 WAR for his entire career spread out over five years and 1,777 PAs. The odds of him staying healthy and consolidating similar value over the next three years has to be pretty low. Only three players put up five or more WAR while DH-ing from 2021-23…Ohtani (13.1), Yordan (6.8) and JDM (6.1).
  13. sveumrules
    Yeah, last year Yelich (20) and Contreras (29) started just under a third of the games at DH. If Quero pans out behind the dish, that opens up Contreras to DH more games. Depending how the various OF prospects play out could result in Yelich getting more DH time too. All those factors lead me to believe any DH addition would likely be on a one year deal, maybe someone like Brandon Belt.
  14. sveumrules
    Yup, Cot’s has OD payroll ranks going back to 2000. The cycles are pretty evident… Late Selig Years (2000-2004) 23rd, 23rd, 21st, 29th, 30th [332-447, 3rd worst in MLB over that span] Early Mark A Years (2005-2007) 27th, 24th, 20th [first .500 season in 13 years in 05, lost division by two games in 07] First Window (2008-15) 15th, 17th, 17th, 17th, 13th, 19th, 16th, 20th [343-305 from 08-11, then 307-341 from 12-15, spending didn’t buy squat in the back half] First Rebuild (2016-18) 30th, 30th, 26th [miss WC by 2 games in 2017, NLCS in 2018] Second Window (2019-23) 17th, 22nd (COVID), 19th, 19th, 20th [Stearns gone, Hader gone, Counsell gone, Woodruff gone] Whats so exciting about this offseason is there are justifiable reasons to push payroll, maintain the status quo, or make some deals to go into another hopefully quick rebuild. There are scenarios where they can cut salary and maybe still come out with a better team next year depending on the specifics of the deals and how the stable of young position players develops.
  15. sveumrules
    FanGraphs had 2/26, MLBTR said 3/39 in their predictions. Will be interesting to see where he ends up as a 33 year old not really catcher whose career high in PAs was 359 five years ago, though he almost topped it this year at 344. He’s also done the every other year thing since his 2019 breakout with seasonal wRC+ marks of 159, 43 (ok, it was 2020 whatever), 139, 98 and 138. But I guess your line will be extra volatile when you’re only getting a couple two tree hundred PAs a year. I’d maybe go 2/30, but wouldn’t want to give someone with that spotty of a track record on multiple fronts a three year deal to mostly DH.
  16. sveumrules
    I think it pretty much all depends on what kind of offers they get for Burnes, Adames , maybe Williams. Using Cot's estimates they would have about $25M to spend this offseason to hit last year's OD payroll without trading anybody, That should be enough to buy a bat for 1B/DH and an arm for the rotation if they want to go that route. If they decide to re-tool or whatever, I could see a cut in spending for a couple years like they did in 2016-18 before building back up the when the next wave hits.
  17. sveumrules
    Yeah, but that 117 wRC+ over 483 PA in 2022 only shook out to 1.1 WAR because his defense (-9.5 runs) and base running (-4.5 runs) were so bad. Just seems like the generic 1B only kind of profile teams generally view as pretty fungible from a value standpoint. I guess he’s young enough to still overcome that, but when your mitt and wheels have you that far in the hole right outta the gate you pretty much need like a 130 wRC+ to even crack 2.0 WAR.
  18. sveumrules
    Jose Miranda put up a 57 wRC+ in MLB and a 74 wRC+ at AAA this year. Small samples but he has negative OAA at 1B (-4) and 3B (-6). His DRS is also negative at 1B (-6). Throw in -5.9 runs on the bases in his short career and dudes gonna need a 120 wRC+ to provide even a little value. Steamer is projecting him to “bounce back” to a 103 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR. At least Polanco can hit (119 wRC+), but he’s another guy that can’t field with -42 DRS at SS, -31 OAA at SS and -16 OAA at 2B. Really hope the Brewers wouldn’t even be interested in these guys, much less give up Wiemer and Henderson.
  19. sveumrules
    Was looking at Steamers for 2024 and was surprised how close Peralta and Burnes are projected on a rate basis… 3.67 ERA | 3.78 FIP for FP 3.70 ERA | 3.74 FIP for CB Of course Corbin has a better track record on the health front, so he’s projected for an extra 22 IP. Don’t think Freddy gets moved just because his surplus value is up in that range where teams are averse to dealing prospects ranked so highly.
  20. sveumrules
    They WILL be players in free agency, sure. Does that guarantee them anything in 2024 though? Three of the biggest players in FA last offseason were the Yankees (Judge/Rodon/Rizzo for $602M), Mets (Nimmo/Diaz/Verlander+ for $497M) and Padres (Bogaerts+ for $379M). All of them went from making the playoffs in 2022 to missing the playoffs in 2023 despite their FA expenditures.
  21. sveumrules
    They spent pretty appropriately from 2016-20 coming in at 6th, 6th, 4th, 3rd and 5th per Cot's OD payroll ranks. Of course to get back up to even 6th from 11th they would've needed to add another $50M last year, to crack Top Three they'd need to add another $70M.
  22. sveumrules
    Yeah, for me Tender Decisions are BBQ or ranch to dip them in. Maybe a good honey mustard.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like MLBTR had 6/150 and FanGraphs had 5/140 for Nola. No hometown discount for the Phils. ZiPS projects him for about 14 WAR over the seven years. Steamer likes him a bit more (4.2 WAR for 2024 vs 3.4 WAR from ZiPS) so maybe closer to 18-19 WAR on the high end.
  24. sveumrules
    There are 226 players with at least 1,000 PAs from 2021-23. Here's how Chapman stacks up... 1,824 PA (36th) | 110 wRC+ (93rd) | 11.7 WAR (30th) Very much a 3TO guy with a 139 BB%+ (24th) | 129 K%+ (213th) | 121 ISO+ (69th) | 133 FB%+ (5th) to go along with a 92 AVG+ (205th). Of course his big feature is his glove with +24 DRS (5th) +15.7 UZR (4th) and +21 OAA (5th) over that stretch, while he's also added sneaky value on the bases at +7.4 BSR (52nd). 6/150 MLBTR is projecting seems high, 5/120 FanGraphs is closer but still seems like a lot to pay for a guy who should probably hit 6th/7th in a good lineup. Steamer projects a 103 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR for 2024, which is maybe like 9 WAR over five years with standard aging curve. Anything over $100M feels likely to be an overpay.
  25. sveumrules
    Cot’s OD has them 29th, 30th, 27th, 27th and 29th counting back to 2019. 2011-18 they came in at 16th, 12th, 16th, 15th, 14th, 9th, 10th and 13th. Ballparking, it would probably take around $30M for them to jump up closer to 20th, or around $50M to crack into the teens.
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