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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    CHOO CHOO CHOURIO
  2. sveumrules
    It's a disappearing profile for sure. If you aren't bringing anything to the table defensively, the bar for offense is so high that getting there with a bunch of singles and limited power is just a really narrow lane to make it through. First guy that comes to mind for me is someone like Donovan Solano with a 114 AVG+ | 68 ISO+ | 131 LD%+ since 2021. Looking at the 2021-present leaderboard (min. 1,000 PA) maybe guys like Alec Bohm (109 AVG+ | 79 ISO+ | 118 LD%+), Ty France (111 AVG+ | 88 ISO+ | 114 LD%+) or Gio Urshela (116 AVG+ | 82 ISO+ | 114 LD%+) are in the same general bucket. Or a guy like Robbie Grossman with a 94 AVG+ | 89 ISO+ | 117 LD%+ who is below average at getting hits/hitting for power despite the line drives, but salvages the whole thing with a ridiculous 164 BB%+.
  3. sveumrules
    BLAKE BOMB 💣
  4. sveumrules
    Would have been nice to get more, but 5 IP | 3 ER vs Burnes is about as good as you can realistically hope for.
  5. sveumrules
    Adames Ks on seven balls.
  6. sveumrules
    SMALL BALL BABY
  7. sveumrules
    Was pretty good in the minors (#78/81 on the BA/MLB Top 100s) up until he had TJ in 2019. Has gotten bombed since then. See what the pitching dev team can do with him.
  8. sveumrules
    Me too, clearly should have gone Hoskins - Contreras instead.
  9. sveumrules
    Hoskins ok in the two hole too
  10. sveumrules
    I like Contreras leading off.
  11. sveumrules
    Yeah, very likely to go down after facing Burnes today, but at the moment Brewers position players sit atop the FanGraphs WAR leaderboard.
  12. sveumrules
    Yeah, I don’t think anyone believes the Brewers true talent level as an offense is the 124 wRC+ they are currently rocking, but even if they could end up around 2018 (105 wRC+ | 37.1 batting runs) or 2022 (103 wRC+ | 23.3 batting runs) levels that would be something like an eight to ten win improvement over 2023 (92 wRC+ | -61.4 batting runs).
  13. sveumrules
    Took a couple weeks, but the Brewers have moved to the top of FanGraphs playoff odds for the NLC… MIL (9-3) 83.6 Wins | 25.8 WinDiv% STL (7-7) 83.3 Wins | 24.6 WinDiv% CHI (7-6) 82.8 Wins | 22.3 WinDiv% PIT (10-4) 81.5 Wins | 16.2 WinDiv% CIN (7-6) 80.1 Wins | 11.0 WinDiv%
  14. sveumrules
    Good start for the Sounds in game two, leading 4-0 through four. Brewer Hicklen has doubled and singled and stolen a base with Patrick Dorrian and Owen Miller each chipping in an RBI single while Eric Haase has a two run bomb. Tobias Myers at 4 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 5 K with 59 pitches so far.
  15. sveumrules
    That was just after his epic OHFER…0-45 from June 11th to August 3rd that year.
  16. sveumrules
    Looks like the stretch was Aug 2nd to 7th… Braun (25 PA), Fielder (25 PA), YUNI (24 PA), Hart (21 PA) McGehee (20 PA), Lucroy (20 PA), Tony Plush (19 PA) and Felipe Lopez (19 PA) were the mainstays with a smattering of Jerry Hairston (13 PA), Kotsay (8 PA), Cubs Manager (7 PA), Josh Wilson (5 PA), Kottaras (4 PA) and assorted pitchers mixed in.
  17. sveumrules
    From what I understand this information is coming from the investigation conducted by the Federal Government independent of MLB's investigation. What motivation does the Federal Government have to protect Ohtani?
  18. sveumrules
    Completely different profiles though, Mejia had elite bat to ball skills but no power and he was always viewed as a pretty marginal defender coming up. Quero is pretty much the opposite with top end reports on his defense and a power over hit profile on offense.
  19. sveumrules
    If it is the Eagles as Murphy speculated, that is a road game for the Packers. They've got nine home games this year so even if they "lost" one it would still be the standard six games Green / two games Gold split.
  20. sveumrules
    How about spending over the course of the whole season instead of just on Opening Day? Seems relevant with the team adding salary at both the 2022 and 2023 deadlines. Cots hasn’t updated their end of season numbers yet, but SpotRac has them at $131M for 2022 followed by $125M in 2023. For those more interested in how the team performs on the field than hawking the owner’s finances, they also somehow won six more games in 2023 than they did in 2022. All told, the Brewers have won the 6th most games in MLB since 2017, the 7th most going all the way back to 2008. Over the 22 seasons between the 1982 WS and Mark A buying the team, the Brewers were the 2nd worst non-expansion team in MLB.
  21. sveumrules
    Logan Webb threw 216 IP over 33 GS last year, 6.5 IP/GS. StatCast said he primarily mixed a change up (41.6% | 87.5 MPH), sinker (33.6% | 92.3 MPH) and slider (21.2% | 84.3 MPH). That’s probably about as close as it gets to the kind of pitcher you’re describing. He finished 2nd in NL CY voting and signed a five year $90M extension two years before hitting FA, the 3rd highest AAV ever for a player with his service time. Zac Gallen probably fit the mold last year too, 34 GS | 210 IP | 6.2 IP/GS with a fastball (49.3% | 93.6 MPH), curve (22.7% | 82.5 MPH), change up (14.0% | 86.8 MPH) and cutter (10.3% | 90.0 MPH) pitch mix. He finished 3rd in NL CY and 5th the year before. He’s getting $10M on his second Arby’s trip. How about Sonny Gray? 32 GS | 184 IP is a little low on the IP (only 5.75 IP/GS) but has the right pitch mix at fastball (27.2% | 92.9 MPH), slider (20.4% | 84.3%), curve (16.8% | 79.6 MPH), sinker (15.7% | 92.8 MPH), cutter (13.1% | 87.6 MPH) and change up (6.7% | 87.9 MPH). He finished 2nd in AL CY and signed for 3/75 as a 34 year old FA. Aaron Nola has been this guy for a few years now, 96 GS | 579 IP | 6.0 IP/GS from 2021-23 with a fastball (33.5% | 92.8 MPH), curve (28.4% | 78.8 MPH), sinker (17.2% | 92.0 MPH), change up (15.7% | 85.6 MPH) arsenal. He signed for 7/172 this offseason. Those were the first names that popped in my head fitting the general profile, their effectiveness seems to have been appropriately recognized and rewarded.
  22. sveumrules
    Entering today the Brewers had scored 4.14 R/G vs a league average of 4.55 R/G. After scoring 12 runs today they are up to a 5.13 R/G. Sad no more? Any stat is noisy by nature over a sample of only seven or eight games, but context independent measures (like wRC+ or FIP) were intentionally designed to strip out much of the noise present in their context dependent counterparts (like R/G or ERA) and as such serve as better proxies to the elusive “true talent level” over 162 games (much less seven or eight). Even beyond the numbers, it’s hard for me to characterize the Brewers lineup as sad. There are four mostly well established veterans to serve as the foundation in Yelich, Contreras, Adames and Hoskins. There is one of the best prospects in baseball in Chourio. After that there is a mix of young players in Turang, Frelick, Ortiz and Dunn who have varying degrees of upside to be potentially realized. Sanchez is 16th in catcher WAR from 2021-23, and that’s our backup. Perkins is a pretty ideal 4th OF as a switch hitter with top end defense/speed to go along with a decent plate approach (13.4 BB% in MLB | 13.0 BB% in MiLB). Monasterio is nothing exciting but he’s a perfectly cromulent 5th IF and platoon mate with Turang. I don’t think anyone is excited about Bauers, and he’s mostly lived up to the hate, but he even ended up 2-5 today and has been flashing the leather pretty regular in the early going.
  23. sveumrules
    Maddux is a one of one outlier, and didn’t even become peak Maddux and truly dial in his command until his mid-20s to early 30’s. During his five good seasons with the Cubs (age 22-26) he ran a 103 K%+ | 86 BB%+ | 63 HR9+ | 80 ERA- | 83 FIP-. Over the next six seasons with the Braves (age 27-32) he ran a 118 K%+ | 43 BB%+ | 40 HR9+ | 51 ERA- | 61 FIP-. Teams minor league systems have plenty of lower velocity command pitchers, it’s just increasingly difficult to reach MLB and have sustained success with that profile because the margin for error is way smaller. Teams turn over just about every stone they can looking for pitching talent. If there was some modern day Maddux out there he’d go to college, put up ridiculous stats, be a late round pick or undrafted sign and get his chance to prove he could keep doing it against better & better hitters climbing the ladder. Brewers have even signed numerous arms out of Indy ball over the last few years. A guy like James Meeker is hardly any kind of stuff monster, but he dominated the Frontier League in 2021 and has worked his way to the upper minors.
  24. sveumrules
    Still very early of course, but the Brewers currently have a 103 wRC+ which would be a sizable upgrade over their 92 mark from last year. Frelick (21 wRC+), Bauers (6 wRC+) and Sanchez (-100 wRC+) have certainly been sad, but the other eight players to get regular PAs have all been above average… Ortiz (113 wRC+) Chourio (118 wRC+) Contreras (121 wRC+) Turang (121 wRC+) Dunn (129 wRC+) Rhys (129 wRC+) Adames (152 wRC+) Yelich (167 wRC+)
  25. sveumrules
    He’s had the starting five together for seven of those 31 games. Four of Doc’s 16 losses Dame didn’t play, Giannis didn’t play in two more. Dame Beasley Khris Giannis Brook (+15.4 pts/100 in 593 minutes) have actually been better than White Holiday Brown Tatum Porzingis (+12.3 pts/100 in 607 minutes) for BOS and Murray KCP MPJ Gordon Jokic (+14.0 pts/100 in 883 minutes) for DEN this year. Just get everyone to the playoffs healthy and the Bucks have as good a shot as anyone at knocking off either of the presumptive favorites.
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