sveumrules

Maddux is a one of one outlier, and didn’t even become peak Maddux and truly dial in his command until his mid-20s to early 30’s. During his five good seasons with the Cubs (age 22-26) he ran a 103 K%+ | 86 BB%+ | 63 HR9+ | 80 ERA- | 83 FIP-. Over the next six seasons with the Braves (age 27-32) he ran a 118 K%+ | 43 BB%+ | 40 HR9+ | 51 ERA- | 61 FIP-. Teams minor league systems have plenty of lower velocity command pitchers, it’s just increasingly difficult to reach MLB and have sustained success with that profile because the margin for error is way smaller. Teams turn over just about every stone they can looking for pitching talent. If there was some modern day Maddux out there he’d go to college, put up ridiculous stats, be a late round pick or undrafted sign and get his chance to prove he could keep doing it against better & better hitters climbing the ladder. Brewers have even signed numerous arms out of Indy ball over the last few years. A guy like James Meeker is hardly any kind of stuff monster, but he dominated the Frontier League in 2021 and has worked his way to the upper minors.

Still very early of course, but the Brewers currently have a 103 wRC+ which would be a sizable upgrade over their 92 mark from last year. Frelick (21 wRC+), Bauers (6 wRC+) and Sanchez (-100 wRC+) have certainly been sad, but the other eight players to get regular PAs have all been above average… Ortiz (113 wRC+) Chourio (118 wRC+) Contreras (121 wRC+) Turang (121 wRC+) Dunn (129 wRC+) Rhys (129 wRC+) Adames (152 wRC+) Yelich (167 wRC+)

He’s had the starting five together for seven of those 31 games. Four of Doc’s 16 losses Dame didn’t play, Giannis didn’t play in two more. Dame Beasley Khris Giannis Brook (+15.4 pts/100 in 593 minutes) have actually been better than White Holiday Brown Tatum Porzingis (+12.3 pts/100 in 607 minutes) for BOS and Murray KCP MPJ Gordon Jokic (+14.0 pts/100 in 883 minutes) for DEN this year. Just get everyone to the playoffs healthy and the Bucks have as good a shot as anyone at knocking off either of the presumptive favorites.

Yeah, Brewers definitely like to run out some of the younger teams in their leagues. Here are last years stateside rosters below AAA by age relative to league average... CAR BAT: 20.0 (21.0 LgAvg) BIL BAT: 22.8 (23.7 LgAvg) ACL BAT: 19.3 (19.9 LgAvg) ACL PIT: 20.7 (21.3 LgAvg) WIS PIT: 22.8 (23.1 LgAvg) CAR PIT: 21.3 (21.6 Lg Avg) WIS BAT: 22.1 (22.3 LgAvg) BIL PIT: 24.4 (24.3 LgAvg) So only Biloxi pitchers coming in above average age with Carolina batters and Biloxi batters both the youngest in their respective leagues. ACL pitchers 2nd youngest, ACL batters, Carolina pitchers and Wisconsin pitchers all 3rd youngest.

Definitely better for relievers since how good they are typically correlates with what kind of leverage situations they are brought into, but it's kind of noisy for starters since so much of their WPA is tied up in what kind of run support they get and it also doesn't really account for differences in volume. Like last year Miley (+1.98) came out ahead of Peralta (+1.71) and Burnes (+1.63) by WPA. But all that's really telling us is Wade did a better job of stranding the extra base runners he put on and doesn't give Freddy or Corbin any credit for the combined 117 additional innings they pitched.

There is absolutely a positional component to increased league wide spending, it is not evenly distributed amongst the player pool. Willson Contreras got a lower AAV in 2023 than Yasmani Grandal got in 2020 and only 500K more than Brian McCann got in 2014. Of the 96 players making $15M or more this year according to Spotrac, only four are catchers... SP (34) OF (17) 3B (10) 1B (10) SS (8) DH (6) RP (4) C (4) 2B (3) Six starting pitchers per team is about 23.1% of the player pool, but 35.4% of the $15M AAVs. Two catchers per team is about 7.7% of the player pool, but only 3.1% of the $15M AAVs. Cot's has 139 contracts ever signed for $100M or more, only four of those were catchers. One interesting wrinkle that could be fun to keep an eye on is that that Adley Rutschman (1182 PA | 131 wRC+ | 24.6 CS% | 11.6 WAR) and Cal Raleigh (1151 PA | 106 wRC+ | 27.7 CS% | 8.3 WAR) are both on track to hit free agency at the same time as William (1204 PA | 123 wRC+ | 19.5 CS% | 7.7 WAR) so could be a pretty deep group if everyone keeps on keeping on and no one decides to extend in the interim.

I’ve found a good way to calibrate the different WARs is by comparing some of the more divisive players. Like Burnes last year. He threw 193 IP of 3.39 ERA and 3.81 FIP. FG valued that at 4.8 runs WAR and 3.4 FIP WAR while BRef had him at 3.5 WAR. The perception of Corbin is closest to the rWAR, but the fWAR and bWAR both thought he needed some help from his defense to get there. Miley was even more extreme at 120 innings of 3.14 ERA and 4.33 FIP which came out at 3.4 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR and 2.6 rWAR. His FIP isn’t as good because he doesn’t strike anybody out, but the run prevention is still top notch so the question comes down to how much credit goes to Miley and how much goes to the defense to account for that difference. That’s essentially the crux of why pitching WAR is so tricky, we know ERA isn’t solely up to the pitcher. Their defense, ballpark and some degree of “luck” plays into it, whether in the form of batted ball results or sequencing. On the position player side Turang came in at 1.6 bWAR but only -0.2 fWAR because DRS had him at +12 on the season compared to OAA having him even with +2 at 2B but -2 in his SS innings. I think most would side with DRS on the eye test, but still have a hard time buying that was enough to make him essentially an average player with such a poor batting line. Like with most things, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle. Another one would be Contreras, 5.7 fWAR last year, but only 3.8 bWAR. This one essentially boils down to FG giving credit to William for his framing while BRef doesn’t. The opposite end of the spectrum is a guy like Sal Perez who has 33.1 career bWAR but only 15.4 fWAR because he’s graded out at -115 framing runs.

The only team that wanted to sign him was one of the small handful of outright tanking teams coming off a 100 loss season. The Brewers weren't the only team hoping to compete this year that could use rotation help and still passed on him anyway.

Baseball Reference pitcher WAR is the most convoluted. It is based off of runs allowed with adjustments for defense. FanGraphs default pitcher WAR is based off of FIP (Ks, BBs, HRs and IFFBs), it strips out defense entirely. They also have a runs allowed based WAR available if you toggle over to their value leaderboard. For me personally I pretty much ignore BRef WAR for pitchers and use a mix of the two FanGraphs versions, while obviously looking at underlying stats as well. Just like two guys with the same OPS might get there in different ways (OBP/SLG heavy or evenly distributed) two pitchers with the same FIP might also get there in different ways. Position players the main difference is BRef uses DRS for defense, while FanGraphs uses OAA. Personally I tend to come down closer to the larger defensive swings that DRS spits out (+85 to -79 on a team level in 2023) versus OAA (+41 to -50 on a team level in 2023), but I tend to default to FanGraphs WAR because their leaderboard interface is just so much easier to navigate, especially when looking at multiple seasons.

Because the only way to get that AAV in free agency is to stay healthy and productive for three more years and 157 more games playing the most dangerous and physically demanding position on the diamond. Salaries as a whole might be exploding, but how much have catcher salaries exploded specifically and who will reset the market from JTR’s 5/115 between now and the 2027-28 offseason when William hits the open market? Mauer signed for 8/184 all the way back in 2011, Posey signed for 8/163 back in 2013. Looks like peak catcher earning power has actually gone down over the last decade regardless of how salaries are rising elsewhere.

From 2017-23 Brewers relievers posted +35.85 WPA, 2nd most in MLB. It would seem only one team got closer to perfect by that delicate calibration, Relievers give up runs and lose games, it is an inevitability. A more optimal parenthetical here might have been “in my estimation and with the benefit of hindsight”.

Also noted in the MLBTR column that Mitchell's return timeline is 4 to 6 weeks.

He's pitched four out of six, or three out of four days depending how you want to slice it up. Mar 29, Mar 31, Apr 2, Apr 3. It's early in the season, everyone should theoretically be at their freshest and there is an off day tomorrow.

Corbin Carroll was 21 when he was in AA.

Nice bounce back inning from JBB.

CHOO CHOO CHOURIO

Realmuto & Contreras The Elder got those AAVs as free agents. Contreras The Younger has three seasons and 158 games before he reaches free agency. So the math would come down to take around $100M guaranteed now (which would be a record for a catcher with his service time) or roll the dice on staying healthy and productive for another three years and 158 games with the most he could likely command upon reaching FA being something not too far north of the 5/115 JTR signed for in 2021, maybe 6/150 tops.

Not a whole lot of scouting reports I could find on Satchell, but here is about an eight minute video from the ACL last year. Listed at 5’8” and 200 lbs with shaky defensive stats (11 passed balls and 49 SB with only 6 CS in 200 innings behind the plate) his bat is probably going to have to do the heavy lifting barring major improvements behind the plate. Good news is he has been up to the task so far with a 15.9 BB% | 22.5 K% and 317/430/455 (131 wRC+) batting line over 151 PAs in the ACL.

Any shoulder injury is scary stuff (especially when it’s to a strong armed catcher’s throwing shoulder), but it sounds like Quero’s initial diagnosis is about as positive as it could get all things considered. As swelling subsides they could find more damage or he could have a setback during recovery and working his way back to playing strength, but hopefully this just ends up being a couple month absence to start the year and he’s able to come back and finish out the season strong.

Don’t think they’d need to go all the way up to Fresh Prince length/money to extend William. Sean Murphy signed for 6/73 heading into his first year of Arby’s and brother Contreras got 5/87.5 as a free agent. I’d guess something in the range of 6/90 or 7/110 would convince William to forego FA.

With all the full season rosters out, thought it might be a good time to do a quick summation of how many Brewers international signees are at each level… MLB (2) Abner Uribe, Jackson Chourio AAA (2) Harold Chirino, Jeferson Quero AA (3) Ernesto Martinez, Eduardo Garcia, Carlos Rodriguez (OF) A+ (11) Patricio Aquino, Alexander Cornielle, Stiven Cruz, Edwin Jimenez, Yerlin Rodriguez, Jadher Areinamo, Gregory Barrios, Jesus Chirinos, Eduarqui Fernandez, Luis Lara, Jheremy Vargas A (14) Daniel Corniel, Yorman Galindez, Yujanyer Herrera, Osbriel Mogollon, Jeison Peña, Jesus Rivero, Manuel Rodriguez, Blayberg Diaz, Juan Baez, Miguel Briceno, Daniel Guilarte, Luis Castillo, Reidy Mercado, Yophery Rodriguez Believe that is everyone from the roster graphics. Obviously Quero’s injury and how Yophery handles his aggressive assignment are the two big storylines, but another interesting one to follow will be which pitcher from the A+ group is the first to break through to Biloxi.

Pretty aggressive assignment for Alejandro Rodriguez straight to A+ as an undradted free agent who didn’t exactly show out in his brief ACL time last year.

Gotta feel for Shuckers pitchers when Darrien Miller gives them the best chance at nabbing potential base stealers… Wes Clarke (35 SB | 4 CS in 2023 at AA) Darrien Miller (80 SB | 18 CS in 2023 at A+) Andy Yerzy (35 SB | 7 CS career at AA) Can Lamar Sparks catch?

Interesting draft class with two 2B and then two 1B atop the rankings currently and only one SS among the Top 20.

About $65M of that is for guys no longer on the team (Scherzer, Verlander and McCann), but that still leaves around $260M in active player payroll. "Names" on long term deals are Lindor ($34M), Diaz ($21.25M), Marte ($20.75M), Nimmo ($20.5M), Senga ($15.67M), and McNeil ($10.25M). That's like $112.5M for six guys. Brewers payroll is $110M for 26 guys. Then they've got a bunch of eight figure one year deals with Alonso ($20.5M), Manea ($14.5M w/ opt out), Quintana ($13M), Severino ($13M), Martinez ($12M), Bader ($10.5M). That's like $83.5M for six more guys. Pirates have a payroll of $84M for 26 guys. Then they've got a tier of another ten guys in the seven figures that are all set to hit FA after this year with Narvaez ($7M), Raley ($6.5M), Houser ($5.05M), Ottavino ($4.5M), Diekman ($4M), Fujinami ($3.35M), Smith ($2.25M), Wendle ($2M), Lopez ($2M). That's like another $32.5M, which could be framed as about half of Oakland's payroll or one Giancarlo Stanton. Cot's contracts has them at only $141M in commitments for 2025, so Stearns should have a chance to make more of a mark on the team next offseason.