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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    BTV has six years of Mayo with $43.7M in surplus value versus one year of Burnes at $33.3M, so this is the most likely possibility. Or maybe the Orioles said sure, we’ll give you Mayo, but we’re going to need someone like Gasser ($10.5M), Brock Wilken ($8.9M) or Payamps ($8.8M) included to even things out. Or maybe the Brewers didn’t have a singular focus on getting power back instead focusing on getting what they viewed as the best overall return.
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah, Adames is still young enough to have that peak season, and what better year to do it than his walk year. He also hasn’t really had a season where put together top end offense and defense 2019 99 wRC+ | +11.8 DEF | 3.3 WAR 2021 120 wRC+ | -0.3 DEF | 3.3 WAR 2022 109 wRC+ | +14.8 DEF | 4.6 WAR 2023 94 wRC+ | +17.7 DEF | 3.4 WAR His best hitting year was his worst by the fielding metrics in 2021, and then this last year he posted his worst hitting and best fielding numbers. If he can come out and post a wRC+ around 120 with +15 DEF that should get him up around 5 WAR and give him a shot at landing a Dansby Swanson sized deal in FA.
  3. sveumrules
    That will very likely end up being the case as the Celtics appear to be in a tier of their own, but the Bucks are playing with no Dame, no Brook and likely no Khris the rest of the game after he left early with a rolled ankle…and they still lead a fully healthy Durant, Booker and Beal at half.
  4. sveumrules
    Have a feeling the staff is going to be deployed in much more of a nebulous Rays like fashion now that Burnes/Woodruff are gone.
  5. sveumrules
    Right, but for all those extra starts, Houser only threw 16 additional IP.
  6. sveumrules
    Houser 2022-23 214 IP | 105 ERA- | 97 FIP- | 108 GB%+ | 79 K%+ Junis 2022-23 198 IP | 104 ERA- | 93 FIP- | 100 GB%+ | 102 K%+ So essentially Houser with more Ks and less GBs.
  7. sveumrules
    This is why you extend Chourio before he has his 6 WAR breakout season.
  8. sveumrules
    Article over on FanGraphs today about which players saw the biggest gains and losses to their 2024-27 projections based on their performance in 2023. Brewers landed four risers with Tyler Black, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Abner Uribe all catching the computer’s eye.
  9. sveumrules
    Dude kind of sounds like Bauer-lite a little bit. Had the incident with Plesac where they violated Covid protocols, then he had a domestic incident last year. MLB didn’t take official disciplinary action, but sounds like Clevinger “voluntarily” entered some kind of treatment program. Could be a factor in why he hasn’t signed yet, or could just be waiting out Snell and Montgomery.
  10. sveumrules
    That’s gotta be the most aggressive placement for Quero so far. Exciting stuff.
  11. sveumrules
    Interesting idea as the Jays could use a boost at 3B/2B, though I don’t think Adames (+18 DRS | +17 OAA from 2021-23) on the eve of free agency would be the one moving off SS with Bichette at -9 DRS | -15 OAA over that same time frame. Only guy close to Adames (per BTV’s estimation anyway) that really makes sense is Alex Manoah. Would be a pretty huge risk given his implosion last year, but if he figured it out again that’s potentially four years of a TOR starter.
  12. sveumrules
    Welcome to the board. All things considered, best case scenario for Rhys would probably be to come out raking but have the Brewers be non-competitive and deal him at the deadline. That way he could opt out without a potential qualifying offer hanging over his head. If that scenario plays out, have to imagine the Brewers would want to get prospect(s) back that are at least equal in value to the comp pick they’d get with the QO.
  13. sveumrules
    You said “a bit behind” which doesn’t imply a huge difference at all. Charlie Greene and staff were able to coach up Narvaez, Contreras and Caratini on framing… Narvaez 16-19: -22.3 FRM 20-22: +20.2 FRM Contreras 20-22: -6.3 FRM 2023: +14.4 FRM Caratini 17-21: -5.0 FRM 22-23: +10.1 FRM Their CS% didn’t see quite the same level of improvement… Narvaez 16-19: 52/251 = 20.7 CS% 20-22: 47/218 = 21.6 CS% Contreras 20-22: 16/71 = 22.5 CS% 2023: 16/93 = 17.2 CS% Caratini 17-21: 30/142 = 21.1 CS% 22-23: 22/106 = 20.8 CS% Yes, A/A+ base runners aren’t as good at stealing bases as AA (or especially MLB) base runners are. Narvaez had a 25.0 CS% between AA-AAA, Contreras was at 32.7% in AA, Caratini was at 26% in AA. If you can only throw out 10.3% of AA base runners, MLB players will run wild.
  14. sveumrules
    I'd be fine with the offense as is, and running more of Yelich at DH with some combo of Mitchell/Wiemer getting the majority of the time at the other OF spot. Overall value wise it's probably close to a wash with a veteran DH providing a little more certainty and lineup depth versus Mitchell/Wiemer having a wider range of potential outcomes.
  15. sveumrules
    4/39 = 10.3 CS% 27/78 = 34.6 CS% If you legitimately believe this to be a just a bit of a difference, you need to recalibrate. If you understand the sheer magnitude of that difference and are just trying to undersell it, you are being openly disingenuous.
  16. sveumrules
    Spend Burnes money on a bat and could run out something like this… 1. Frelick RF (projected 103 wRC+) 2. Contreras C (projected 120 wRC+) 3. Yelich LF (projected 116 wRC+) 4. Hoskins 1B (projected 115 wRC+) 5. Soler (119) / Belt (106) / JDM (107) 6. Adames SS (projected 103 wRC+) 7. Black 3B (projected 104 wRC+) 8. Ortiz 2B (projected 100 wRC+) 9. Chourio CF (projected 93 wRC+) That’d be a pretty fun lineup.
  17. sveumrules
    Good thing the guy that made it works in NY now then.
  18. sveumrules
    Right, but there’s a gaping schism twixt “thin” or “full of question marks” and “worst rotations in recent history”. Corbin Burnes. chipped in 3.4 fWAR to a rotation that was 13th in MLB last year at 11.2 fWAR. The worst rotations in recent memory would be teams like 2022 WAS (-1.4 fWAR), 2023 OAK (1.1 fWAR), or 2021 CHC (2.1 fWAR). FanGraphs currently projects the Brewers rotation for 11.1 WAR in 2024. It would take an Rube Goldberg Machine of unfortunate events for the Brewers to end up with one of the worst rotations in recent history.
  19. sveumrules
    Vegas might not be the best prognosticator for the Brewers. 17 O/U: 70.5 17 wins: 86 (+15.5) 18 O/U: 83.5 18 wins: 95 (+11.5) 19 O/U: 86.5 19 wins: 89 (+2.5) 21 O/U: 83.5 21 wins: 95 (+11.5) 22 O/U: 90.5 22 wins: 86 (-3.5) 23 O/U: 85.5 23 wins: 92 (+6.5) Five out of the six last seasons they’ve been low on the Brewers, three of those by over ten wins. In aggregate they’ve undersold the Brewers by a total of 43 wins over the six full seasons of their recent competitive window.
  20. sveumrules
    Baseball America just gave the Brewers farm system their highest preseason ranking since 2004. This batch of prospects is right up there with the first wave of the Mark A era that kicked off our run of success from 2007-11 and the second wave that we’ve rode for the last seven years. The difference is all those highly ranked prospects are joining an already successful org, not one starting over from the dregs like they were with the previous two waves.
  21. sveumrules
    The 2018 team that went to G7 of the NLCS had a rotation of Jhoulys Chacin (35 GS), Chase Anderson (30 GS), Junior Guerra (26 GS), Brent Suter (18 GS), Wade Miley (17 GS), Freddy Peralta (14 GS) and Zach Davies (13 GS), with help down the stretch from Gio Gonzalez (5 GS) and Woody (4 GS). That rotation ranked 20th in MLB by fWAR and 15th by rWAR with the help of the 2nd ranked defense by DRS. SP is a question mark, no doubt, but the Brewers return a bullpen that paced MLB in Win Probability Added last year, a fielding unit that was again 2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, and an offense that should improve upon its 92 wRC+ from last year.
  22. sveumrules
    They’ve run franchise record payrolls in three of the last four full seasons - 2019, 2022 and 2023 with a global pandemic in the middle. Their OD payroll ranks have come in between 17th and 20th for the last five years in the 30th ranked market. Where do you believe they would need to rank to show an appropriate level of investment? They also have invested heavily in DR/VEN building a new academy and infrastructure from the ground up that has already started paying off with a guy like Uribe, Chourio up next (who got a pretty good investment from Mark A), then Quero, and Lara, etc. In 2018, 2022 and 2033 they won the division at 96, 95 and 92 wins. Their only Wild Card year they came in at 89 and would have knocked out the eventual WS champs if Hader got his outs. The team has always said they’re playing to win the division and have been pretty good at it. They won 86 in their down year.
  23. sveumrules
    Hader for Ruiz/Gasser/Rogers/Limet was panned pretty heavily. Many questioned giving up talented arms like Olson/Kelly for Norris/Bush at the very same deadline.
  24. sveumrules
    The odds of Hall and Ortiz (projected around 3 combined wins) outproducing Burnes (projected around 4.5 wins) are pretty low, though not absolute zero either. Crazier things have happened. If someone got out of a DeLorean before last season and said the only two things they knew about the 2023 Brewers were that the offense was going to crater from a 103 wRC+ (11th) the year before down to a 92 wRC+ (24th), and that Woodruff would get hurt and only throw 67 IP, I don’t think many would have predicted the Brewers adding six dubs onto their 2022 total and winning what was forecast as a tight division with relative ease. No matter how 2024 shakes out, this trade was made primarily for 2025 and beyond where Hall and Ortiz will hopefully be stacking wins compared to the absolute zero we’d surely be getting from Corbin at that point.
  25. sveumrules
    It’s kind of a short track record at only one season, but here’s how Arnold fared in his first year… The Good (13 players at +19.8 WAR) Contreras (5.4 WAR), Miley (3.4 rWAR), Payamps (1.8 rWAR), Wilson (1.4 rWAR), Rea (1.3 rWAR), Perkins (1.2 WAR), Peguero (1.0 rWAR), Canha (1.0 WAR), Miller (0.9 WAR), Teheran (0.8 rWAR), Santana (0.7 WAR), Anderson (0.5 WAR), Megill (0.4 rWAR) The Bad (6 players at -2.7 WAR) Winker (-0.8 WAR), Voit (-0.4 WAR), Singleton (-0.4 WAR), Chafin (-0.4 rWAR), Varland (-0.4 rWAR), Tapia (-0.3 WAR) Looks line Arnold came out about 17 wins ahead on his transactions last year.
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