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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Over the last month the top nine position players have 70+ PA each. After that it is Caratini (32), Wiemer (32), Tellez (24), Anderson (16), Miller (3). They’re barely using the 13th or 14th position player on the roster, I don’t see how a 15th would have much opportunity to add value. Sure, the 14th pitcher might suck so bad that you might have to use the 13th pitcher anyway, but if the 14th pitcher wasn’t even on the roster you’d have to use the 13th pitcher no matter what. I’d rather roll the dice on saving the bullpen an inning here or there over the last month than carry an extra position player that will never see the field.
  2. sveumrules
    Meatloaf said two out of three ain’t bad, so he really would’ve been impressed by three out of four affiliate SPs surrendering zero earned runs tonight… Jesus Rivero (5 IP | 5 H | 0 BB | 4 K) TJ Shook (6 IP | 1 H | 1 BB | 3 K) Julio Teheran (5 IP | 1 H | 3 BB | 3 K)
  3. sveumrules
    Last 30 days the Brewers bullpen is 8-3. Only three teams bullpens (Rays, Mariners & Nationals) have been credited with more wins. Only four teams bullpens (Braves, Dodgers, Astros & Cardinals) have lost fewer games. Their Win Probability Added of +0.81 is 9th last 30 days (vs 1st on the season as a whole), so they haven’t been as lockdown as earlier in the season, but it also hasn’t really cost them in terms of wins and losses. Brewers bullpen last 30 days ERA of 3.38 ranks 7th and FIP of 3.76 ranks 8th vs seasonal marks of 3.73 ERA (10th) and 4.12 FIP (13th) so they’ve been better at both raw run prevention and via peripherals over the last month.
  4. sveumrules
    Sounds have tacked on a few more runs, now up 6-2 bottom of eight. Greg Allen (2-4, SBx2), Abraham Toro (2-4, 2B), Jahmai Jones (0-1, BBx3), Chris Roller (1-3, BB) and Cam Devanney (2-3, 2B, BB) have joined the aforementioned Tyler Black with busy days in the box and on the bases. Josh Donaldson is 1-4 with an RBI and 2 K as he leads off bottom of eight with a pop out to third base.
  5. sveumrules
    Andrews is the very last guy in the expanded September bullpen, and has an option. The Brewers just traded for two players, SantanCanha, that play Keston’s positions plus Contreras to rotate through DH when he isn’t catching. And Rowdy. There is nowhere for Hiura to play.
  6. sveumrules
    Took a long time for GameDay to update on the Sparks at bat, so figured it had to be some wild sequence of events. Then Chourio was already on second by the time it finally refreshed.
  7. sveumrules
    Lamar Sparks triple clears the bases for Biloxi, then he scores on a throwing error. Chourio doubles, steals third,
  8. sveumrules
    Outside of Jadher Areinamo, most of the Latino Mudcats have pretty straight forward nombres. But hombre, I’m not even sure where to start with Jhostynxon on Salem.
  9. sveumrules
    Win Probability Added takes the game context of each plate appearance into account. By that measure the Brewers bullpen is 1st in MLB at +7.43 vs the Cubs in 15th at +1.44. There’s obviously a lot of factors playing into that, like what happens in the 5th/6th/7th to hopefully get to the 8th with a lead. There’s also each teams difference in run distribution. As a lower scoring team, the Brewers bullpen has had more opportunity to add or subtract WPA in close games (27-13 in one run games vs 19-18 for the Cubs), where the Cubs have had more blowouts as a high scoring team (29-17 in 5+ run games vs 13-14 for the Brewers). From here we can also see the Brewers have had 69 games decided by 2 to 4 runs vs only 55 such games for the Cubs. Another context based stat for relievers are shutdowns/meltdowns which is just any appearance resulting in 0.06 WPA in either direction. Brewers relievers are at 141 SD (3rd most in MLB) and 60 MD (fewest in MLB). Cubs relievers are at 108 SD (23rd) and 63 MD (3rd fewest), which also illustrates the “opportunity” gap Brewers relievers have had to add or subtract WPA by pitching in more close games. By average Leverage Index Brewers relievers are at 1.09 (8th) vs 0.92 (29th) for the Cubs. Or there’s always the original context based stats, wins and losses, where Brewers relievers are 31-20 vs 23-24 for the Cubs.
  10. sveumrules
    Was looking at some reliever leaderboards over at FanGraphs and noticed Erceg popping up here and there. Definitely having a season of extremes, rankings are among 172 relievers with at least 40 IP so far… THE GOOD 0.20 HR/9 (3rd) THE PRETTY GOOD 47.5 GB% (53rd) | 3.44 FIP (58th) | 26.2 K% (77th) THE NOT SO GOOD 5.56 ERA (162nd) | 13.8 BB% (164th) | .378 BABIP (167th) xFIP (4.58), SIERA (4.30) and xERA (3.93) all think he isn’t quite as bad the raw ERA, but that his elite HR prevention is likely unsustainable over larger samples so also not quite as good as the FIP either. That .378 BABIP seemed insane to me so I checked the five Brewers relievers with at least 40 IP and the highest BABIP was Peguero at .267 which ranks 53rd.
  11. sveumrules
    I think William’s got a lot stronger case for NL MVP then the raw numbers (and likely final vote tally will) bear out. Mookie and Acuna are the favorites, and it’s easy to see why, they are the best players on the best teams with 7.7 and 6.8 fWAR, respectively. But take Mookie off the Dodgers and they still have another legit MVP candidate in Freddie (6,8 fWAR), and two players in Will Smith (3.8) and James Outman (3.6) that are equally impactful as the Brewers’ second best player, Yelich (3.7). Even without Mookie they’d have like a six game division lead. Its even more pronounced with Acuna as the Braves have four other Top 20-ish guys in the NL with Olson (4.5), Murphy (4.5), Riley (4.0) and Albies (3.3). Even without Acuna they’d still have like a seven game division lead. Take Contreras off the Brewers though, and we’d be looking up at the Cubs for the division instead of the other way around. I’m not saying Contreras should take home the trophy, just that he should probably finish closer to 5th than 10th.
  12. sveumrules
    Both are definitely intriguing with some good statistical indicators, but as guys like Edwin Jimenez, Alexander Cornielle and Stiven Cruz have shown this year, it’s a long road from DSL success to even getting good results in Wisco. Should have a better idea once they come over stateside and we can get a better read on their stuff with more consistent video and reports.
  13. sveumrules
    They've also given 1,268 plate appearances to first year players Wiemer, Turang, Monasterio, Perkins and Frelick, getting a solid 3.5 combined fWAR in return. Sure, their collective offense hasn't been great (-35.5 total batting runs), but they've run the bases (+7.3 BSR) and fielded their positions (+20.5 DEF) well enough to each have provided positive overall value during their rookie seasons. BRef has them contributing even more value at 4.4 combined WAR with a breakdown of -36 BAT | +3 BSR | +35 DEF.
  14. sveumrules
    Chris Roller has presumably got to be some kind of defensive whiz in CF. 30th round pick by the Dodgers back in 2017 out of a community college, has never really hit, yet here we are six years later and dude has made it all the way to AAA playing the overwhelming majority of his innings in CF.
  15. sveumrules
    Bayden Root (1 H | 3 K) and Blake Whiting (2 K) each add another scoreless frame to their ledgers to close out the 7-2 Carolina win. Jose Chavez was credited with the win throwing two scoreless innings (1 BB | 2 K) of his own bringing his Mudcats ERA down to a devilish 6.66 on the season.
  16. sveumrules
    Existence is luck. I’m no astrologomizer or anything, but I’m pretty sure if Earth was a couple two tree light years in either direction we’d either be frozen stiff or burnt to a crisp. You think that sperm that beat all the other sperms to the egg to create each of our individual existences worked out twice a day, or knew a shortcut, or was somehow any different or better from all the other sperms? Of course not, it got lucky. And hey, we’re all still alive. How much luck is involved in that? On a universal level one flying space rock could wipe it all out. On a global level all it takes is one megalomaniac, and lord knows there are plenty. On an individual level, how many times have we each personally dodged death? Did we only escape those precarious circumstances because of our skill and intellect, or did some amount of luck lend a helping hand in those crucial moments? Of course luck similarly pervades baseball, it’s a feature, not a bug. Complaining about it on the internet demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding as to how the universe (and thus, baseball) naturally unfolds. I’d expect nothing less from a Cubs fan.
  17. sveumrules
    Wait, I’m really confused now. The Badgers were up 31-10? From reading the thread I thought the defense got torched and the only play the offense made all game was an impressive run from Chez?
  18. sveumrules
    Looks like Jace trimmed the K% last year as the season went along too. Splitting each level into rough halves… ACL 1stH 78 PA | 39.7 K% ACL 2ndH 71 PA | 28.2 K% CAR 1stH 61 PA | 41.0 K% CAR 2ndH 58 PA | 29.3 K%
  19. sveumrules
    Lotsa big games in the box for what ended up a 7-1 Wisco win. The aforementioned EBJ went off (4-5, HR, 2B, SB) while Lara (2-5, 3B), Wilken (2-5, 2B), Mendez (3-4, BB) and Wood (3-5) had busy nights themselves. Woessner worked around 6 H | 3 BB over 5 IP to only surrender 1 ER with 7 K before Nick Merkel closed it out with three perfect frames (2 K).
  20. sveumrules
    No better quality for a starting pitcher to possess than the ability to inspire run support.
  21. sveumrules
    Or SantanCanha if you aren’t into the whole brevity thing.
  22. sveumrules
    I mean, obviously it’s a small sample of only 60 PA at AAA, but Winker is hitting 333/500/556 (173 wRC+) with a 25.0 BB% and 10.0 K%. Considering all the consternation over Hiura being robbed of his rightful opportunity with a 136 wRC+ at Nashville, it would seem like passing over the much hotter Winker could be the final nail in the coffin of the 2023 Brewers.
  23. sveumrules
    Yeah, looks like the command has slipped some recently from the progress he made midseason… 0406-0519 38 IP | 25 BB | 14.7 BB% 0525-0716 47 IP | 7 BB | 3.5 BB% 0722-0901 40.1 IP | 14 BB | 8.2 BB% For the season he’s at 8.5 BB% so this most recent version is probably closest to the “real” Robert.
  24. sveumrules
    Looks like last night’s outing set a new career high in IP for Freddy at 145 after logging 144.1 in 2022. He had 120 IP back in 2017 and followed that up with 144.2 IP in 2018 (including minors/postseason), so he’s been in this range a few times as a professional. Also has a pretty solid case for best pitcher in MLB post ASB… 2.1 fWAR (1st) | +1.50 WPA (1st) | 178 K%+ (1st) | 64 WHIP+ (1st) | 65 AVG+ (1st) | 57 xFIP- (1st) | 54 FIP- (2nd) | 54 ERA- (2nd) | 64 LD%+ (2nd) | 2.1 rWAR (4th)
  25. sveumrules
    Man, starting pitchers really showed out tonight in four out of the five games up and down the system… Gasser: 6 IP | 1 ER | 3 H | 3 BB | 8 K CarRod: 6 IP | 2 ER | 5 H | 1 BB | 8 K Cornielle: 6 IP | 2 ER | 6 H | 1 BB | 9 K Aquino: 6 IP | 0 ER | 5 H | 2 BB | 5 K
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