sveumrules

After opening at +115 STL and +145 MIL, it looks like Vegas Insider has the Brewers between -110 and -140 versus STL at +170 to +200 to win the division. Lotsa money to be made for Cardinals believers/Brewers dis-believers.

Now just one game shy of being one third of the way through their schedule, the Brewers have gone a pretty underwhelming 9-10 since the May 8th check in. Good news is that outside of STL (13-7), the other NLC teams - CIN (10-9), PIT (6-11), CHC (5-13), and NL big spenders - NYM (10-9), PHI (9-9), SDP (6-12) haven’t fared much better. Result is current division odds of 72% vs 18% at BPro, 57% vs 23% at 538 and 49% vs 33% at FanGraphs with all three systems favoring the Brewers over the Cardinals. Would have to say the closer percentages at FG look the most realistic to me at this point. Over double odds at 538 and 4x at BPro feel a little too aggressive with so much baseball left. Here are how the various systems see the non-ATL/LAD contenders to this point with playoff percentages from BPro, FanGraphs and 538 in the parentheses following… NYM (79% | 54% | 55%) MIL (76% | 58% | 68%) SDP (71% | 54% | 51%) PHI (65% | 40% | 40%) SFG (33% | 53% | 46%) STL (26% | 42% | 36%) ARI (26% | 51% | 44%) MIA (21% | 31% | 29%)

Now that we know Adrian Griffin will be the new head coach figured I’d start a thread for the new season. Griffin got his start as an assistant under Scott Skiles on the 2008 Bucks. Time…it goes. Players currently under contract are Giannis, Jrue, Bobby, Pat, Grayson and Marjon. Sounds like Khris was at the meeting of the minds with Giannis, Horst and the owners after the interviews were done so he is likely back, will be interesting to see where the numbers come in. Not a cap expert, but believe we can also retain any of Brook, Jevon, Jingles, Jae, Wes, Dragic, Meyers Leonard and Thanasis but it will come with tax hits. That’s what Dolan is here for. Not a lot of room to maneuver with some combo of Bobby, Pat, Grayson, Marjon all they can really dangle for any kind of upgrade around the edges or in something like say a Fred Van Vleet sign and trade. I’d guess Jrue isn’t going anywhere, but he apparently wasn’t at the aforementioned meeting of the minds, so maybe he’d be the outgoing piece if they look to make a splashier move.

They should just install video screens that play non stop loops of water falls and mud slides.

No doubt, Corey Ray was a bust. At the same time here are the 1st rounders drafted after him to put up even five WAR so far, #8 Cal Quantrill (7.4 WAR), #20 Gavin Lux (5.2), #32 Will Smith (12.1 WAR) and #33 Dylan Carlson (5.0 WAR). None of the four players drafted ahead of him have even cracked 5.0 WAR yet, looks like lotsa GMs drafted bust in the first round of 2016. Is Keston Hiura a bust? Many were clamoring for him as our best hitter last year. His paltry 1.5 WAR is the best of any 1st round hitter drafted 9th or later. The only 1st rounder to crack five WAR from 2017 was #31 Drew Rasmussen, who didn't sign with the Rays. Brice Turang just made MLB from the 2018 draft, prolly a little early to declare him a bust. Here are the first rounders drafted after him to top 5.0 WAR so far, #24 Nico Hoerner (8.4 WAR) and #31 Shane McLanahan (7.7 WAR) Sure, Small looks like a bust so far. At the same time only two 1st rounders drafted after him have even cracked one WAR, #30 Anthony Volpe (1.2 WAR) and #34 Drey Jameson (1.6 WAR). Mitchell's 1.6 WAR is already tied for 2nd in the 2020 draft class, hard to call that a bust. Frelick and Brown Jr are still traversing the minors. Again, a little early to declare either of them busts to this point.

Good breakdown. Here are the positional wRC+ marks and WAR totals with league ranks via FanGraphs... Ca: 109 wRC+ (7th) 1.5 WAR (3rd) 1B: 110 wRC+ (14th) 0.1 WAR (18th) 2B: 91 wRC+ (17th) 0.7 WAR (12th) 3B: 114 wRC+ (9th) 0.7 WAR (14th) SS: 85 wRC+ (19th) 0.7 WAR (14th) LF: 110 wRC+ (9th) 1.3 WAR (4th) CF: 87 wRC+ (21st) 0.7 WAR (19th) RF: 52 wRC+ (28th) 0.0 WAR (24th) DH: 78 wRC+ (27th) -0.6 WAR (27th) The only spots that are killing us relative to preseason expectations are SS, RF and DH. At SS, Willy just needs to play better if he wants that payday. In RF, I don't think Tyrone is going to keep up a 16 wRC+ for the whole season so we should see improvement there. DH is the easiest to fill (in theory) but losing Hiura as an insurance policy hurts. Pretty much comes down to Adames, Winker and Taylor need to hit better until Urias, maybe Frelick, maybe even Black, plus whoever we pick up at the deadline can provide reinforcements.

Fun fact I just found out, if one types “Misio” in the player search at BRef and hit enter it takes them straight to Jacob’s page. Don’t find the Law blurb overly concerning. Feel like the delivery and potential additional injury/reliever risk that comes along with it was why he was still available at #63 with some of the best raw stuff in the draft. I’ve always had him with that Peralta, Ashby, Drew Rasmussen kind of profile where if they do make it up the ladder to MLB as a starter it will be more of a 20-25 GS | 5-6 inning guy vs say that much rarer 25-30+ GS | 6-7 inning guy.

Always cracks me up when people still cling to Bickford like he was the one who got away. There are 129 relievers with at least 100 IP since 2021. Here's where Phil ranks in various categories... 98 ERA- (101st) | 94 FIP- (84th) | 0.7 rWAR (86th) | 0.9 fWAR (72nd) | +1.80 WPA (38th) The Win Probability Added is decent, but everything is else is pretty non-descript. Even then, Bickford's WPA is only fractions ahead of Hoby Milner (+1.43) over the same stretch.

Brewers relievers have a +2.62 Win Probability Added so far, the 2nd best mark in MLB. All six relievers with at least 10 IP have an ERA- better than league average and only Milner has been worse than average by FIP-, splits in parentheses… Wilson (77/84), Payamps (65/95), Strzelecki (81/51), Milner (92/123), Williams (17/54), Peguero (37/78).

About a quarter of the way into the season and the projections pretty much have the NL split into four tiers. Format is TEAM with the playoff percentages from BPro, FanGraphs and 538 in the parentheses following… Playoff Locks LAD (98% | 96% | 97%) ATL (93% | 99% | 95%) Playoffs Likely MIL (81% | 70% | 80%) SDP (84% | 65% | 63%) NYM (86% | 57% | 58%) PHI (74% | 54% | 53%) Playoff Longshots ARI (15% | 41% | 38%) STL (20% | 31% | 24%) MIA (19% | 24% | 19%) CHI (13% | 20% | 27%) SFG (11% | 29% | 17%) PIT (5% | 14% | 19%) Playoff No Shots CIN (1% | 2% | 6%) WAS (0% | 0% | 2%) COL (0% | 0% | 2%)

Bummer. Saw he got picked off in the play log and subsequently pulled. Was hoping it was just a jammed finger or something, but this sounds potentially a little more serious.

Pretty crazy how much the defense has boosted both the position player group and pitching so far this year. Brewers are currently 18th in runs scored per game and 19th in wRC+, but the position players rank 11th in WAR on account of their league best defense. Pitchers haven’t been particularly good at the things they exert the most control over either with their K9 ranking 26th, their BB9 ranking 13th and their HR9 ranking 19th. Put it all together and their FIP ranks 20th, yet they are 8th in ERA on account of that league best defense contributing to a league high strand rate.

He got picked off first to end the 7th inning so he either got pulled for injury, getting picked off, defensive replacement (he was playing LF), or to replace Voit.

Man, bummer about Rasmussen. He has been pretty nails since we dealt him for Adames with 250 IP of 70 ERA- | 78 FIP- shaking out to 7.2 rWAR | 5.6 fWAR for Tampa. For context, that is pretty much the same kind of production we’ve gotten from Freddy since 2021 at 263 IP of 75 ERA- | 75 FIP- shaking out to 7.4 rWAR | 6.8 fWAR.

Yet, no MLB team thought that small sample performance vs RHP (with alarming underlying indicators) was worth claiming Keston and his $2.2M salary.

Ding Ding. Since the All Star Break of last year there are 101 pitchers with at least 80 IP. Here's where Burnes ranks in various categories over that stretch... 128 IP (7th) 25.3 K% (31st) 7.0 BB% (62nd) 1.05 HR9 (51st) 3.94 ERA (56th) 3.72 FIP (42nd) No one is giving up any kind of major haul for Burnes if he continues pitching like that from now through the deadline.

Another 10%-ish of the schedule is in the books and its been rough going here for NL Central clubs the last week or so with the Brewers just breaking a six game losing streak, the Cardinals just breaking an eight game losing streak, the Pirates in the midst of a seven game losing streak, while the Cubs had their own little 1-6 streak before the weekend and the Reds, well they played some games too. The projections are a little slower to react to chaos than the average fan, but they are starting to see the NLC as a little more interesting race than they did before the season started or after the first 10% of games played. Current computations... BPro MIL: 87 W | 75% Div | 79% PO CHI: 78 W | 9% Div | 14% PO STL: 77 W | 9% Div | 13% PO PIT: 76 W | 6% Div | 9% PO 538 MIL: 88 W | 61% Div | 74% PO CHI: 80 W | 18% Div | 33% PO PIT: 78 W | 12% Div | 25% PO STL: 75 W | 7% Div | 16% PO FanGraphs MIL: 86 W | 57% Div | 65% PO CHI: 80 W | 17% Div | 26% PO PIT: 79 W | 13% Div | 21% PO STL: 79 W | 13% Div | 20% PO I probably agree with the more evenly distributed FanGraphs spread the most at the moment, seems a little too early in the season still for the degree of confidence BPro is showing in the Brewers.

Sounds like Willson Contreras will primarily be playing DH/OF for the Cardinals moving forward.

I know it’s kind of the boring answer, but a lot of it is just regression to the mean and small sample results that were always going to be difficult to replicate over larger samples. 2020 59 IP | 155 K%+ | 109 BB%+ | 23 HR9+ | 47 ERA- | 46 FIP- (breakout Burnes, but relievers put up numbers like this over 59 IP every year) 2021 167 IP | 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- (Cy Burnes, but the challenge was always going to be doing it for 200 IP) 2022 pre-ASB 113 IP | 144 K%+ | 79 BB%+ | 86 HR9+ | 53 ERA- | 73 FIP- (mostly up to task first half of last year, ERA was even lower, but FIP showing the cracks with K, BB and especially HR rates all slipping) 2022 post-ASB to now 128 IP | 112 K%+ | 82 BB%+ | 94 HR9+ | 95 ERA- | 90 FIP- (these are not the kind of numbers that make a compelling arbitration case and certainly won’t net a quarter billion in FA) I don’t know what the fixes are, I’m just some guy on the internet, but I do know that no one maintains a 155 K%+ or 23 HR9+ or 38 FIP- or 53 ERA- over multiple seasons and hundreds of innings. I also don’t think Corbin’s struggles over his last 128 IP are necessarily indicative of a new true talent level moving forward either. Add it all up and since 2020 Corbin is at a 65 ERA- | 62 FIP- | 67 xFIP- over 468 IP. Give his most recent performance a little more weight and I feel like somewhere around a 75 ERA-/FIP- is probably something like a realistic ceiling for Burnes until he starts stringing together some outings. Thats still a great SP and someone you’d love to have on the hill for a playoff game, just not OMG Pedro reincarnate…cuz no one ever is for more than a little while.

Excited to see what Edgardo Ordonez can do stateside. Over the last two seasons, as a 17-18 year old in the DSL, playing mostly catcher (273 innings) and some first base (118 innings) he has hit 293/413/424 (136 wRC+) over 223 PAs with a 14.3 BB% and 21.1 K%.

All things considered, think Quero and Chourio have at least held their own given the aggressive placement starting in AA. Jeferson is at 279/311/419 (100 wRC+) in 45 PA while Jackson is 264/298/414 (92 wRC+) in 94 PA. Both have been pretty aggressive at the plate (4.4 and 5.3 BB%) which is probably to be expected, but haven’t struck out at ridiculous rates (24.4 and 23.4 K%) which is encouraging. Hopefully as they get more exposure to AA pitching they’ll start to get a little more selective in the zone and start putting up some bigger numbers as the season progresses.

Not sure what the big board pick values are, but feel like I ended up pretty close here. Only real difference is getting the 2nd rounder this year instead of 3rd rounders in both of this year & next year, plus I missed the crucial 5th/6th swap.

The short version is the projections believe the Brewers are over performing on both offense (4.90 R/G vs 4.31 R/G projected rest of season) and run prevention (3.29 RA/G vs 4.25 RA/G projected rest of season) through the first 13% of the season. Conversely, the Cardinals have been about as expected on offense (4.62 R/G vs 4.52 R/G projected rest of season) while their pitching probably isn’t quite as bad as their current ERA (4.90 RA/G vs 4.28 RA/G projected rest of season) suggests.

What do you mean by accurate? 100% accuracy? That is impossible. More accurate than any one individual’s brain can muster on its own given the nearly infinite variables involved? Surely. This article’s a few years old at this point after the Rays hired Sullivan, but it does a good job of showing how even after the season is halfway over the projections are still much better at predicting what happens in the second half than either of what had already happened (actual record) or what should have happened (pythag record) during the first half.

Also have to give a little love to two other Fielder instances that proved he wasn’t to be trifled with, when he jacked up Manny Parra against the dugout wall and the time he tried to go fight the entire Dodgers team in their own clubhouse. Whoever answered the door earned their money that day for sure.