.jpg.cc012630838b9a00fd2a2371995d5f38.jpg)
sveumrules
-
Posts
10,786 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
210
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
News
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects Ranking
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks
Milwaukee Brewers Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by sveumrules
-
Brewers starting pitchers by rWAR with league rank and team wins... 2017: 14.2 rWAR (8th) 86 W 2018: 11.2 rWAR (15th) 96 W 2019: 9.9 rWAR (15th) 89 W 2021: 22.3 rWAR (2nd) 95 W 2022: 13.0 rWAR (14th) 86 W The Brewers have had an elite rotation for one of the last five full seasons. -
Feliciano’s breakout at A+ (129 wRC+) came during his age 20 season and was accompanied by a 6.0 BB% and an alarming 28.8 K%. Quero just finished up his age 19 season split between A/A+ and while he didn’t hit quite as well with only a 116 wRC+ he showed a much better plate discipline profile with a 7.4 BB% and 18.8 K%. I don’t think anyone is haunted by anything, but to carry out the analogy I’d wager Quero ends up more helped along by the ghost of Maldonado past than he ends up spooked by the spectre of Feliciano (or other catchers with completely different profiles).
-
Right, because all of them (except Giancarlo) can field a position and none of them struck out thee very most out of the 317 players with at least 250 PA in 2022. Keston’s lack of playing time is tied directly to those two factors. The reason say Joey Gallo, gets more playing time than Keston despite them both being high strikeout power hitters is because Gallo walks more (16.0 BB% from 2019-22 vs 7.4% for Hiura), slugs more (.249 ISO vs .216 ISO) and fields better (+37 DRS vs -16 DRS).
-
Yet, they all finished with higher WAR than Keston (0.8). OPS is only one portion of a players value. If a player can’t field a position, and strikes out 41.7% of the time (worst in 2022 min 250 PA), its difficult to get consistent playing time.
-
"He’s a promising prospect defensively behind the plate. But so was Mario Feliciano, who ultimately ended up on waivers and claimed by Detroit." Quero is an advanced defender behind the plate, Feliciano was always a bat first prospect who needed to figure out the actual catching part. Outside of being teenage Brewers catching prospects the two have very different profiles.
- 20 replies
-
- 1
-
-
- ethan small
- robert gasser
- (and 3 more)
-
Thanks Brock for spearheading the charge that transitioned BF.net/com from a remnant of the “old internet” into something more contemporary and easily accessible to Brewer Fans. Here’s to continued growth in 2023, I’d imagine a World Series win would be alright for site traffic.
-
I can kinda understand Renfroe/Wong since they were just traded, but Hader was dealt in August. Please don’t say Burnes is April.
-
Was really surprised by Matt Moore’s season (& that he was even still pitching at all really). Looks like there might have been some luck involved though, especially his HR/FB rate with his splits at 50 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 98 xFIP-. That the drunken sailor Rangers didn’t resign him straight away gives me some pause too.
-
Suter is out of options and not good enough to be used in high leverage spots. If they weren’t willing to pick up their dependable 7th inning guy two years running at $3M (Box’s 2023 option), they were never paying that same $3M for a long reliever.
-
Even with sporadic playing time spread out over multiple seasons, two things can be accurately forecasted. His K% and defensive ineptitude. Barring a major adjustment or approach change he is going to strikeout at an alarming rate and never be relied upon to provide any defensive value. This is the primary reason he only has 1.5 seasons of PAs over four years. Well, that and he stunk from 2020-21. His results moving forward will depend entirely on batted ball luck just as they have in the past.... 2019: 348 PA | .402 BABIP | 24.1 HR/FB% | 139 wRC+ 2020-21: 443 PA | .271 BABIP | 18.9 HR/FB% | 71 wRC+ 2022: 266 PA | .355 BABIP | 29.8 HR/FB% | 115 wRC+
-
Winker had a 109 wRC+ last year. That is horrendous? I guess if you want to compare it to the 145 wRC+ he posted from 2020-21, sure.
-
One year samples are too small to draw meaningful conclusions from. Keston has been in MLB since 2019, here is how both players have performed vs RHP during that time… Hiura: 743 PA | 34.5 K% | 122 wRC+ Winker: 1250 PA | 17.0 K% | 133 wRC+ Seems pretty close (besides the PA and K%), but Most of Hiura’s damage vs RHP was done in 2019 with the juiced ball (265 PA | 30.2 K% | 159 wRC+ | .415 BABIP). Since then, from 2020-22 Keston has posted a 102 wRC+ and 36.8 K% with a .294 BABIP in 478 PA vs RHP. Over that same 2020-22 time frame Winker is at 137 wRC+ and 17.2 K% in 916 PA vs RHP.
-
Keston’s 2022 peaked on August 22nd when he had a 144 wRC+ with a 42.8 K%, .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% through 173 PAs. Those 173 PAs ranked 12th on the team and worked out to an average of 1.43 PA/G. "WHY ARENT THEY PLAYING HOME MORE?!?!?!" - the internet in general. From August 23rd through the end of the season Hiura posted a 63 wRC+ with a 39.8 K%, .319 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% over 93 PAs. Those 93 PAs ranked 8th on the team and worked out to an average of 2.27 PA/G. They played him more down the stretch, and he stunk. Turned out keeping up that .381 BABIP and 41.9 HR/FB% was unsustainable...just like the front office likely thought it was, which is probably why they didn't play him more often to begin with. It's not like he had earned regular playing time entering 2022 after posting a 72 wRC+ (251st out of 263 batters with at least 400 PA from 2020-21) to go along with a 36.6 K% (261st), 57.0 Contact% (263rd) and -0.3 WAR (254th).
-
If Keston could field a position adequately and his OPS wasn't propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...he'd probably get more consistent playing time. Since he can't field a position adequately and his OPS was propped up by unsustainable BABIP and HR/FB% to go along with a deplorable K rate and inability to hit LHP...his playing time was inconsistent. Seems pretty straight forward to me.
-
In an intuitive sense, I wonder if Hiura struggles vs LHP because they have a better approach angle to the hole in his swing up & in? Since 2019 there are 226 batters with at least 300 PAs vs LHP, Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 221st. Career vs LHP Hiura is at 39.5 K% and 29.9 HardHit% compared to 34.5 K% and 41.4 HardHit% vs RHP. If Keston is indeed gone by OD that would be one more member of the Addition By Subtraction Club for the Brewers 2022 WOAHs vs LHP… Hiura (109 PAs | 75 wRC+), Omar (39 PAs | 75 wRC+), Wong (96 PAs | 37 wRC+) and Lorenzo (49 PAs | -17 wRC+) combined for about -17.5 wRAA vs LHP. Caratini (123 PAs | 66 wRC+ | -4.7 wRAA) could be less exposed vs LHP with the addition of Contreras as well.
-
If Hiura could field like Adames this might mean something. As it stands, Willy’s combination of bat and glove yielded 4.7 WAR last year. Hiura’s combination of bat and glove yielded 0.8 WAR. That’s an apples to pumpkin comparison.
-
There is so much turnover in the scouting/development department (the Brewers were literally among the worst in all of MLB before they started overhauling things once Mark A bought the team and that process continued further once Stearns & company got here) that I'm not sure how big of a developmental indictment some of these guys actually are. Another thing to consider is that developing catchers is literally the hardest thing to do, so every team's top prospect lists are likely similar rife with "failures". The most informative thing I think with regards to future expectations would be that despite whatever developmental shortcoming they may have had, since Stearns and company have gotten here Brewers catchers rank 3rd in WAR among all MLB clubs. Outside of the one year of Yaz, most of that WAR came from players that came up through the system (Lucroy/Maldonado) or were targeted by Stearns & company in trade (Pina/Narvaez). Between Contreras on the MLB side and Quero in the pipeline, I think the catching situation is probably the best its been organizationally since Lucroy/Maldonado were coming up.
-
Wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers were in on Myers around that price range. May have just been a case of picking the Reds because there is a clearer path to playing time.
-
This is essentially what happened in 2021 when Burnes (6.2), Woodruff (6.3), Peralta (4.5), Houser (2.8) and Lauer (2.8) combined for 22.6 rWAR and the Brewers won 95 games. Throw a breakout year from Ashby in there instead of what we got from Brett Anderson and you’re getting pretty close to 100 wins. Those same five only combined for 13.1 rWAR last year though and the Brewers dropped to 86 wins.
-
Yeah, then perfect clueless Harold Reynolds at the end, “how crazy were the fans during that 18 inning game!” Winker, “I wasn’t there, I was having surgery on my knee and getting a second opinion on my neck.”
-
Frelick & Turang have had pretty even splits through MiLB, Mitchell looks like the most likely platoon possibility of the three... Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS Frelcik 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS Frelcik 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS Mitchell 22 vs RHP: 268 PA | 832 OPS Mitchell 22 vs LHP: 89 PA | 766 OPS Mitchell 21 vs RHP: 205 PA | 817 OPS Mitchell 21 vs LHP: 63 PA | 732 OPS Yelich (401 PAs) and Winker (299 PAs) have each posted a 104 wRC+ vs LHP since 2020, so they aren't total zeroes against same hand pitching either.
-
I added the Steamer projected wRC+ for 2023, that looks like more than four runs per game to me. Last year the Brewers 4.48 R/G ranked 10th vs a league average of 4.28 R/G. Only seven teams - KCR (3.95), LAA (3.85), WAS (3.72), PIT (3.65), MIA (3.62), OAK (3.51) and DET (3.44) came in under four runs per game. I still think there is room to add one more lefty masher to the Corner/DH mix to round things out and trust Arnie to add one before spring training rolls around.
-
Article: The Brewers Need To Extend Willy Adames
sveumrules replied to Cole McCormack's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Adames has managed a .322 OBP over 2,248 career PAs. Steamer projects him at .316 for 2023. I don’t think Arnold will give him $25M a year either but if Willy’s willing to sign for something like say 6/100 it might be Monty Hall time. -
Article: The Brewers Need To Extend Willy Adames
sveumrules replied to Cole McCormack's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Adames is a legitimate defensive SS, Hiura is a DH/1B. If Hiura could field as well as Adames his bat would have gotten a lot more opportunities. Since he can’t he is looking like a fringe major leaguer while Adames is in line for a six figure contract. -
The Adames and Urias trades both involved notable prospects in Rasmussen and Grisham. Wong 5 WAR for 15 million. Narvaez 4.5 WAR for an org depth prospect. Jace 3.5 WAR off the scrap heap. Avisail 3.3 WAR for a lil over 13 million. Renfroe 2.5 WAR for the corpse of JBJ and his 17.5 million in dead money. Boxberger +2.45 WPA for 4.25 million. There have been a number of solid guys via trade / free agency the last few years.
