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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Bucks, last 14 games: 14-0 Rockets, last 67 games: 13-54
  2. sveumrules
    Eh, depends on how big the share is & what kind of power comes with it. Before buying the Browns, Haslam bought into the Steelers ownership group to get a peek behind the curtain. Could be a similar situation here. Headlines on this are terrible, too, but I guess “Haslam Buys Bucks for $3.5B” grabs the eyeballs better than “Haslam Buys Unspecified Share of Bucks at $3.5B Valuation”
  3. sveumrules
    You may be putting too much emphasis on 26 plate appearances taken by an 18 year old in AA. "18 year old in AA" tells one pretty much all they need to know.
  4. sveumrules
    Hard not to be excited about the state of the farm right now. Chourio as the possible superstar at the top. Mitchell already got his first taste of MLB with Frelick, Turang, Wiemer, Gasser not far behind. Quero, Black, Brown Jr. & Misiorowski as the next wave of intrigue rounding out the Top 10. Then you’ve got the 11-20 guys posted the last couple days plus I think I counted at least a dozen more who received votes in that range on the voting thread but didn’t make the final list. Shaping up to be a fun summer for Link Report followers.
  5. sveumrules
    Yup, problem was they were only 20th in PAs with RISP. They need to better get RISP.
  6. sveumrules
    For a single season I’d still have 04 Benny with 237 IP | 62 ERA- | 59 FIP- | 7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR as more dominant than 21 Burnes at 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR. Corbin had the historic FIP, but Benny threw 70 more IP which gives him the edge in both flavors of WAR. Burnes rate stats also benefitted from the luxury of being pulled early because of the dominant pen behind him, Sheets had to be the dominant pen himself. No doubt, Burnes is the best pitcher in MLB over the last three seasons at 428 IP | 63 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 14.0 rWAR | 14.4 fWAR, but if we’re talking multi year runs of dominance 1986-88 Higuera came in at 737 IP | 71 ERA- | 76 FIP- | 21.5 rWAR | 17.7 fWAR. Teddy was “only” the 2nd best pitcher in baseball behind Roger Clemens for those three full seasons & not as good on a per inning basis as Corbin, but doing it for 300+ additional frames makes it a more dominant run for me as of now. I’d prolly put Burnes ahead with one more CY calibre season though.
  7. sveumrules
    It’s not a guess. It’s based on every player’s (both Brewers and opponents) collective performance in AmFam for that season versus those same players’ collective performance in all other parks for that same season. There are also columns for K/BB because different stadiums have exerted observed effects in those areas over numerous seasons of results with changing player pools. The most extreme example being Coors which is bright red across the board on Three Year Rolling except for the solid blue line for K and lighter blue line for BB. Yes, as singles become less common the sample size influencing that specific park factor will necessarily be smaller and subject to greater year over year variation as visible in the OP. That’s why (similar to defensive metrics or reliever stats or platoon splits or even just player performance in general) it’s best to look at multiple seasons to get a more reliable idea of what is going on.
  8. sveumrules
    Burnes couldn't replicate it either. 20/21: 226 IP | 55 ERA- | 40 FIP- | 9.7 rWAR | 9.9 fWAR 2022: 202 IP | 73 ERA- | 79 FIP- | 5.3 rWAR | 4.6 fWAR
  9. sveumrules
    The numbers jump around considerably year to year because every season sees a different array of players with a different array of results. The ball changing year to year (and even within any given year) plays a large roll too. League average OPS has jumped around pretty considerably over the same time frame from 711 (in 2014) to 733 to 750 to 762 to 740 to 769 to 739 to 706 (in 2022), so components thereof doing the same, especially when isolated to a tiny sample of only 81 games at one stadium isn't really that out of the ordinary. This is the methodology quoted on the StatCast page... "Statcast park effects show the observed effect of each displayed stat based on the events in the selected park. Each number is set so that “100” is average for that metric, and the park-specific number is generated by looking at each batter and pitcher, controlled by handedness, and comparing the frequency of that metric in the selected park compared to the performance of those players in other parks." Here is the full array of single season data for AmFam going back to 2002. If you click over to "Three Year Rolling: Yes" it smooths out the results considerably as they encompass more data.
  10. sveumrules
    Bucks RealGM board is a good read. Pretty sure things like Bag Night during the Kohl era and the Winning Takes Balls billboard originated over there. Lots of knowledgeable diehards that have been through the thick and thin posting for like 20 years now.
  11. sveumrules
    Something to keep in mind about batting average is that AmFam is one of the hardest stadiums to hit singles in, last playing above average for singles in 2014. Here are AmFam’s individual season StatCast Park Factors for singles… 2022: 87 (30th) 2021: 97 (20th) 2019: 91 (29th) 2018: 95 (23rd) 2017: 98 (18th) 2016: 91 (28th) 2015: 94 (23rd) 2014: 102 (8th) Meanwhile, here are individual season HR ratings at AmFam over that same time frame… 2022: 117 (9th) 2021: 103 (12th) 2019: 105 (11th) 2018: 108 (11th) 2017: 109 (11th) 2016: 113 (10th) 2015: 134 (2nd) 2014: 119 (6th) I like that the FO has appeared to trend increasingly towards more contact oriented hitters recently, but it might end up being a suboptimal strategy at AmFam.
  12. sveumrules
    By career numbers. Burnes isn’t a slam dunk over even Woodruff right now… Sheets: 1428 IP | 87 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 26.7 rWAR | 31.9 fWAR Higuera: 1380 IP | 86 ERA- | 85 FIP- | 27.4 rWAR | 26.7 fWAR Burnes: 515 IP | 76 ERA- | 68 FIP- | 12.8 rWAR | 14.3 fWAR Woody: 613 IP | 75 ERA- | 74 FIP- | 16.3 rWAR | 14.6 fWAR On a per inning basis, sure Corbin is the best, but his quantity is just too far behind Sheets/Higuera for me to put him in the #1 spot. Even by peak season I’m not sure he comes out ahead of Higuera or Sheets… 86 Higuera: 248 IP | 66 ERA- | 83 FIP- | 7.9 rWAR | 5.1 fWAR 04 Sheets: 237 IP | 62 ERA- | 59 FIP- | 7.0 rWAR | 8.0 fWAR 21 Burnes: 167 IP | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- | 6.3 rWAR | 7.5 fWAR
  13. sveumrules
    Haven't had a chance to dig in yet, but FanGraphs has updated their 2023 Draft Rankings with scouting reports for 69 (nice) prospects... SAUSAGE LINK
  14. sveumrules
    Seems like Jrue’s whistle suffers somewhat because he just plays basketball instead of haranguing the officials up and down the court all game like lotsa guys do. Even through contact dude is just unfazed, so I think the refs swallow it cuz they assumed nothing happened and he isn’t flailing around like one of those used car lot wind dancers.
  15. sveumrules
    87-88 win projection feel about right to me. More goes right than wrong, that’s mid-90’s in wins and a good bet to win the division or a WC. More goes wrong than right, they’ll likely end up closer to .500 & maybe even sell at the deadline. Pretty much gonna come down to health of key players, how the various rookies perform and how the bullpen shakes out after Devin.
  16. sveumrules
    Would have been nice to win more convincingly for sure, but also would have had them in regulation if that prayer from Hauser didn’t drop, or Giannis didn’t go 11/19 from the line. Jrue going off for 40 on 8/12 from three plus a big steal/dunk (that I thought should’ve been an And1 too) down the stretch was prolly his best game of the year. I’ll take an 11 game winning streak any way it comes, but to do it with Bobby out & Khris still coming off the bench on a 25 minute limit makes it a lil more impressive for me.
  17. sveumrules
    Raw OPS does not adjust for park factors. It is harder to hit in Seattle than it is in Milwaukee, that is why Winker comes out ahead of Cutch in both OPS+ and wRC+ despite Andrew having a .012 edge in raw OPS. The main reason McCutchen has the edge in WAR is because he posted +4 fielding runs in his limited OF time, 434 innings. The Mariners for some reason decided to play Winker in the field for 972 innings last year where he posted -16 fielding runs. Assuming the Brewers play Winker minimally on the grass it will be a notable boost to his WAR.
  18. sveumrules
    Yup. Innings with position players pitching tend to take longer due to everybody teeing off on them & MLB want to shave as much time as possible off that average game length. Rendon hitting that lefty bomb was hilarious though.
  19. sveumrules
    They’ve definitely lost a quantity of relievers, but what about their quality? Suter (66 IP | 93 ERA- | +0.38 WPA) Bxbrgr (64 IP | 73 ERA- | +1.04 WPA) Gott (45 IP | 102 ERA- | -0.65 WPA) Hader (34 IP | 105 ERA- | +0.76 WPA) Gustave (28 IP | 95 ERA- | -0.29 WPA) Perdomo (23 IP | 94 ERA- | +0.37 WPA) Rogers (23 IP | 135 ERA- | -1.02 WPA) Kelley (23 IP | 150 ERA- | -0.57 WPA) Thats 308 IP that (outside of Boxberger) was mediocre to bad with a net Win Probability Added of essentially zero.
  20. sveumrules
    Brewers ended up 10th in runs scored (725) last year. Padres (705 | 13th), Guardians (698 | 15th), Mariners (690 | 18th) and Rays (666 | 21st) all made the playoffs scoring fewer runs. Even the vaunted Phillies with big money bats like Harper, Schwarber, Castellanos and JTR only scored 22 more runs (747 | 8th) than the Brewers last year. The Brewers offense may have been regularly consistent and often anemic, but multiple teams made the playoffs with offenses that were more irregular and anemic. All twelve playoff teams surrendered fewer than the Brewers 688 R (16th).
  21. sveumrules
    Obviously just a one year sample, but the Brewers went 42-34 against the NLC last year at 9-10 (STL, CHC), 11-8 (PIT) and 13-6 (CIN). Beat up on the PIT and CHC like they should have and there are the two wins that would have gotten them into the playoffs instead of PHI. Giants went 33-43 against the NLW at 4-15 (LAD), 6-13 (SDP), 9-10 (ARI) and 14-5 (COL). Only playing 52 games each instead of 76 against those respective slates of opponents will have an impact.
  22. sveumrules
    One possibility is maybe the evened out schedule? Brewers will have fewer games against the Reds, Pirates and to a lesser extent Cubs. Giants will have fewer games against the Padres and Dodgers.
  23. sveumrules
    The last time a league's playoff field repeated was the AL in 1998/99 when NYY, BOS, CLE and TEX took all four postseason spots in consecutive years. Even during the post-Expansion/pre-Wild Card era (1969-93) there were only five repeat league playoff fields and that was when you only needed two teams to achieve it. I'm not a mathmetologist, but the odds of all six of ATL, NYM, PHI, STL, LAD and SDP repeating as NL playoffs teams next year is probably quite a bit smaller than what it looks like on the surface or feels like in one's gut.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, ended up 11th in wRC+, 10th in runs scored and 8th in position player WAR last year. Mariners, Guardians, Phillies, Padres and Rays all made the playoffs with lower position player WAR. Brewers pitchers ended up 14th in rWAR. Only Toronto made the postseason with lower rWAR from their pitchers. The offense was much closer to playoff calibre than the pitching was in 2022. So in a macro sense, to improve on 2022 this year we’ll need the pitching to bounce back closer to 2021 levels and hope the offense can hold serve or maybe improve slightly. Outgoing players (Renfroe, Wong, Omar, Cain, Jace, Cutch) accounted for about 8 WAR so we’ll need Winker, Contreras, Anderson and the various rookies to make that up. Something else I found kind of interesting was that Cain (-12.4), Omar (-10.0), Jace (-1.5) and Cutch (-1.2) combined for -25.1 batting runs in their 1,360 PAs, essentially canceling out the good that Renfroe (+14.5) and Wong (+9.6) provided in their 1,019 PAs.
  25. sveumrules
    Bucks played three mostly blah quarters last night, but a dominant 38-23 Q3 was enough to get them that 9th straight W, matching their season opening win streak. Back to back tonight against LAC going for #10. Haven’t had a B2B on the schedule since Khris came back so wouldn’t be surprised if he sits this one out. Really liking where the roster currently stands after the deadline with a couple open spots still for buy out guys… Jrue | Jevon | Green (TW) Grayson | Pat | Wes Khris | Jingles | MarJon Giannis | Jae | Thanasis Brook | Bobby | Sandro (TW) Pretty much just gonna come down to health from here.
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