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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Burnes/Woodruff/Adames Extension thread
sveumrules replied to Brewcrew82's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
My offers would be… Woodruff: 5/140 (24: $16M | 25-28: $31M) Adames: 7/151 (24: $13M | 25-30: $23M) Burnes: 7/220 (23: $11M | 24: $19M | 25-29: $38M) -
Barring injury he'll be on the OD roster, but I don't think he's guaranteed a starting spot just yet. Brewers FO are big fans of depth/competition so I think BA and Turang will both make the OD roster and neither will be a "starter" in the traditional sense. Maybe something like... 1B: Rowdy (122) Bross (40) 2B: Brice (112) Urias (50) SS: Adames (150) Brice (12) 3B: Urias (80) Anderson (72) Can give Anderson additional games in RF, or slide games back and forth between him and Brice based on match up, performance, injury, etc and still have plenty of PAs for everybody.
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Can DH Contreras vs LHP to get him more PAs.
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If I understand correctly, the claiming team (even after passing through waivers) would still be responsible for the league minimum, so his $2.2M salary is more like a $1.5M gamble.
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Hiura has never hit LHP well in MLB. His seasonal wRC+ vs LHP from 2019-22 were 74, 81, 13 and 75 for a career 65 wRC+ vs LHP. Anderson hit LHP to the tune of a 107 wRC+ from 2018-20 before injuries marred his 2021/22 seasons knocking his career mark vs LHP down to a 93 wRC+. Anderson has been almost 30% better than Hiura vs LHP over the course of their careers and at his peak was over 40% better. There are 169 RHB with at least 300 PAs vs LHP since 2019. Keston’s 65 wRC+ ranks 168th with only defensive minded catcher Max Stassi lower. There pretty much is never a Keston Hiura all over again, dude is one of a kind in multiple ways.
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Mentioned him in another thread, but Hunter Harvey had a sneaky good year out of the Nationals pen last year. Only 39 IP but he posted a 62 ERA- and 52 FIP-, though his 0.23 HR9 is likely unsustainable leading to an 85 xFIP-. Checking his pitch mix it looks like he more or less ditched his breaking balls to emphasize his 98.3 MPH four seamer (77%) and 89.4 MPH splitter (15%) as the out pitch. Was a waiver claim by the Nats last year, so maybe they’d want to cash him in to gamble on Hiura’s upside? Could send back one of the out of options relievers and maybe a prospect like Zavier Warren to get it over the line.
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I wouldn’t necessarily say wrong, just that there are some reasons (beyond blind optimism) to believe they might not stink as bad vs LHP as they did last year (92 wRC+). The other thing to keep in mind is splits vs LHP probably comp best by sample size with relief pitcher workloads & we know how volatile relievers are year over year.
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Urias defensive metrics in 1,191 innings at 3B are pretty neutral over his career, +10 DRS | -0.1 UZR | -3 OAA. I agree he profiles better at 2B, but the metrics haven’t seen much of a difference in his 807 innings at the keystone with +3 DRS | +1.1 UZR | +6 OAA.
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Not necessarily. Here are splits vs LHP since 2020… Contreras (155 PA | 158 wRC+), Brosseau (261 PA | 128 wRC+), Urias (307 PA | 111 wRC+), Adames (389 PA | 110 wRC+), Tyrone (239 PA | 109 wRC+) and Yelich (401 PA | 104 wRC+) are six guys on the right side of 100. Anderson was at 107 wRC+ vs LHP over 358 PAs from 2018-20, so he could bounce back to the right side of 100. Frelick and Turang have also had pretty even splits the last couple years, so might not be complete liabilities vs LHP… Frelick 22 vs RHP: 396 PA | 890 OPS Frelick 22 vs LHP: 166 PA | 865 OPS Frelick 21 vs RHP: 136 PA | 840 OPS Frelick 21 vs LHP: 33 PA | 1054 OPS Turang 22 vs RHP: 399 PA | 767 OPS Turang 22 vs LHP: 204 PA | 781 OPS Turang 21 vs RHP: 368 PA | 711 OPS Turang 21 vs LHP: 128 PA | 705 OPS The other thing to consider when looking at the 2022 results vs LHP is that while losing Renfroe (134 wRC+ | +5.7 wRAA) hurts, losing Cain (-17 wRC+ | -6.8 wRAA), Wong (37 wRC+ | -6.9 wRAA) and hopefully Hiura (75 wRC+ | -2.9 wRAA) should help a lot more.
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vs RHP Ca: Contreras 1B: Rowdy 2B: Turang SS: Adames 3B: Urias LF: Yelich CF: Frelick RF: Mitchell DH: Winker vs LHP Ca: Caratini 1B: Brosseau 2B: Urias SS: Adames 3B: Anderson LF: Yelich CF: Frelick RF: Taylor DH: Contreras
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Good insurance policy for 3B/RF. If he hits like 2018-20 (115 wRC+) could be a nice signing, if he hits like 2021-22 (93 wRC+) prolly won’t be much of an upgrade over what we already have.
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
sveumrules replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It’s possible one last move of significance is incoming before the season starts, but with how the NL lines up currently it’d be hard for us to jump from a “low tier” contender up to that next tier. Here’s the current projected WAR totals for NL teams on the FanGraphs depth charts… Top Tier: SDP (52.2), NYM (51.6), ATL (50.2) Mid Tier: LAD (47.8), STL (46.4) Low Tier: PHI (43.4), MIL (41.8) Need Help: SFG (37.6), MIA (36.5), CHC (35.3). PIT (35.2), ARI (33.2) No Hope: WAS (28.2), CIN (27.6), COL (26.1) -
Oct 29 2018 was when he was added to the 40 Man to protect from Rule 5. No option used. Since he was now on the 40 Man, his first option was then used on Mar 13 2019 when he was assigned to AAA. Taylor doesn’t get his value from BA/OBP. He gets it mostly from defense… Among 114 OF with at least 1,000 innings since 2020 he is at +14 DRS (23rd), +7.5 UZR (20th) and +11 OAA (19th). & power with his 131 ISO+ clocking in at 53rd among 260 batters with at least 700 PA since 2020.
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According to the transaction log on TT’s MiLB page he was optioned in each of 2019, 2020 and 2021.
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Roster Resource says no.
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From 2004-11 the Cubs topped 3M in attendance every year. peaking at 3.3M. It dropped down to 2.8M when they lost 101 games in 2012, then to 2.6M as the tank continued in 2013/14. 2015 rose to 2.9M before climbing back above 3M every year from 2016-19 before the pandemic hit. Last year's attendance was back to 2013/14 levels at 2.6M. Sure, customers turn out for games at Wrigley no matter what, but just like everywhere else they turn out more when the team is winning (or at least making the appearance of trying to).
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Cubs starters posted a shiny 2.89 ERA post-ASB, but their 4.04 FIP indicates they were pitching unsustainably over their heads for those 70 games. For a reference point on how extreme that is, the 2022 Dodgers starting pitchers posted thee largest 162 game ERA / FIP differential of the last 20 years at 2.75 ERA / 3.59 FIP, a 0.84 gap. The largest ERA / FIP differential for a starting staff in any given 162 game season is typically around a 0.50 to 0.65 gap. The Cubs post-ASB performance in 2022 was a 1.15 gap. These are the current FanGraphs starting pitcher projections for the NLC teams (with MLB rank)… MIL: 14.8 WAR (4th) CIN: 10.4 WAR (18th) STL: 9.7 WAR (21st) PIT/CHC: 9.3 WAR (22nd/23rd)
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Combination of nagging injury history and I have less faith in his bat than Frelick/Wiemer.
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Hiura was coming off a 116 wRC+ in AA and couldn’t field. Frelick has already had success at AAA and can field, potentially well. Sal is much better positioned to be on the OD roster than Keston was entering 2019.
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Yeah, Cubs additions should improve the team, but outside of Dansby they have more name pop than actual production the last couple years. (side note: I was trying to figure out if Dansby Swanson was heir to the Hungry Man dinner empire & found out his actual father’s name is…I’m not making this up…Cooter) Smyly 21/22: 96 ERA- | 116 FIP- Taillon 21/22: 101 ERA- | 101 FIP- Mancini 21/22: 104 wRC+ | 1.5 WAR Hosmer 21/22: 103 wRC+ | 0.9 WAR Bellinger 21/22: 69 wRC+ | 0.7 WAR
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Last year’s games started in the outfield ended up at… Renfroe (118) Yelich (114) Taylor (103) Cutch (49) Cain (40) Davis (26) Mitchell (19) Jace (11) Keston (4) Esteury (2) For this year I will go with… Yelich (121) Frelick (116) Taylor (99) Wiemer (83) Mitchell (53) Winker (9) Perkins (3) Turang (2)
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Last year PECOTA projected 72 wins for the Cubs, 538 was at 75, ZiPS was at 77, Vegas O/U was 74.5. The Cubs finished with 74 wins. There is nothing unusual about a team projected in the 72-77 win range playing .500 baseball for half a season. Sure, the Cubs have added more talent this offseason, but they won 12 fewer games than the Brewers and 19 fewer games than the Cardinals last year so they’ve got some pretty big catching up to do.
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January 2023 International Signings
sveumrules replied to Ro Mueller's topic in MLB Draft & International Signings
Three signees 6’2” or taller are all pitchers. Also kinda interesting with zero LHP and only one catcher. -
Last playoff appearance was in 2015. From 2016-22 only the Royals, Marlins, Tigers and Orioles won fewer games. O'Neill Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes and one foot out the door Bryan Reynolds are all they have to show for it on the MLB roster. At least the Orioles are starting to come out of it. Tigers, Marlins, Royals, Pirates, Reds all still circling the drain.
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Really hoping for that NYG win over the Vikings today, and then for TB to win on Monday night. That would send NYG to PHI and set up The Old Man vs Purdy in the other game. If Brock knocks off Brady, the NFL myth makers will be kicking it into overdrive.
