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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.
  2. sveumrules
    I don't think Cabrera & Mitchell having similar values is that far off. Cabrera has a lot of promise, but he hasn't really fulfilled it yet, and has yet to pitch a full workload in his professional career... 2016: 47 IP 2017: 35 IP 2018: 100 IP 2019: 96 IP 2021: 87 IP 2022: 110 IP So far Cabrera only has 98 MLB IP with a slightly better than average ERA- of 94 but with much less encouraging peripherals, FIP- (129) and xFIP- (108). Steamer projects Cabrera at 132 IP of 4.08 ERA for 1.4 WAR versus a Mitchell projection of 432 PAs of 99 wRC+ for 1.7 WAR in 2023.
  3. sveumrules
    Here is what FanGraphs said about Ereu… “One of the more polished all-around players in the class, Ereu has plus infield footwork and actions, and is physical enough to threaten the gaps on offense. He looks like a third round West Coast college infielder in his skills and build, and is perceived to have a high floor.” If you click on the players’ names at the MLB.com link up thread there are scouting reports there too.
  4. sveumrules
    What happens if SEA, GB and DET all finish 8-8-1??
  5. sveumrules
    Probably to line up with Stearns contract expiring in 2023. Believe Counsell’s contract is also up after 2023.
  6. sveumrules
    Always group Viña, Belliard and Loretta together in my head. Kinda crazy how close their career Brewers numbers are… Viña 2187 PA | 90 OPS+ | 6.0 WAR Belliard 1930 PA | 90 OPS+ | 5.8 WAR Loretta 2943 PA | 92 OPS+ | 5.9 WAR
  7. sveumrules
    Eight divisions of four teams each feels inevitable once they expand, but I’d prefer four divisions of eight teams each. Something like… ALE: NYY, BOS, TOR, BAL, TB, DET, CLE, CHW ALW: SEA, OAK, LAA, HOU, TEX, MIN, KC,(expansion) NLE: NYM, ATL, PHI, WAS, MIA, PIT, CIN, (expansion) NLW: SFG, LAD, SDP, ARI, COL, STL, CHC, MIL Schedule could be 3 each x inter league (48 games) + 6 each x opposite division (48 games) + 9 each x division rivals (63 games) = 159 games. Last three games could be flexible scheduling with borderline playoff teams playing each other, top two in the division if its close, or out of the race teams playing for draft position (win the series, move up a spot).
  8. sveumrules
    Dodgers said nope. I’d guess the Brewers do too.
  9. sveumrules
    Today is the deadline for the Dodgers to make a decision with Bauer. I think they release him outright just for the PR, at the same time they have to pay him anyway so wouldn't be surprised if they kept him on the roster in hopes of extracting some value (either on the field or via trade) for their 22 million.
  10. sveumrules
    I’ve long ago come to terms with the fact that the Brewers winning a World Series in my lifetime is an astronomical long shot. Barring radical changes to the economic structure of MLB they will never be on an even playing field with teams possessing exponentially larger revenue streams. Even if somehow they were able to draft, develop and trade even better than they have to end up with the 6th most wins in MLB over the last five years, the playoffs are a crapshoot. The Astros have won two WS most recently, but one was marred by a cheating scandal. The Dodgers have been the most dominant team on every non-WS front for the last decade and could only manage one pandemic trophy. The Cubs young WS core didn’t turn into a dynasty, they returned to irrelevancy in short order. The Daddy Warbucks Yankees haven’t even made it to a WS in 13 years. The Royals made two and won one WS with OMG worst manager in the history of the internet Ned Yost at the helm. Setting one’s barometer for a successful Brewers season at “win WS” is like setting one’s barometer for a successful life at “win PowerBall”. The journey is the destination for me.
  11. sveumrules
    Right, the previous front office won the WS in 2018. They followed that up with a 3rd place in 19 (Dombrowski canned) last place in 20, back to the ALCS in 21 and last place in 22 with what looks like another losing season incoming. Red Sox, despite their spending, ride the roller coaster more than any team, another example that while payroll raises a team’s ceiling it doesn’t guarantee anything either. Their other WS in 2013 makes them and HOU the only franchises to win two in the last decade, but they sandwiched that WS with last place finishes in 12 and 14/15.
  12. sveumrules
    Think it’s more that Miller is a Wisconsin guy and Frelick is the best prospect of legal drinking age. My hunch at this point is Sal will be in the OD lineup for MIL while Owen will end up in Nashville after losing out on the last position player spot to Toro.
  13. sveumrules
    Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Lauer, Houser and Ashby started 146/162 (90%) of games. Alexander (11 GS) got most of the remaining 10% with Small (2 GS), Chi Chi (2 GS) and Bush (1 GS) making spot starts. Injuries appear to have impacted the quality of starts more so than the quantity with Houser (77 to 117 ERA-), Peralta (67 to 88 ERA-), Lauer (76 to 91 ERA-), Woodruff (61 to 75 ERA-) and Burnes (58 to 73 ERA-) all seeing their ERA- increase by fourteen to forty percent from 2021 to 2022.
  14. sveumrules
    Cardinals ZiPS projections aren’t out yet, but Brewers just dropped today… LINK One cool feature that was added this year are 20th/80th percentile outcomes in addition to the median projection to give a little more context to the range of possibilities.
  15. sveumrules
    And yet, Milwaukee (395-314) has a better record than Boston (386-322) over the last five years.
  16. sveumrules
    Haven’t played a game with their whole rotation healthy and have the 2nd best record in the NBA even with their mediocre play since the 9-0 start. Yeah, that Giannis guy is pretty good. The way I break it down a little shy of the halfway point would be that GA, Jrue, Brook and Bobby are currently playing at playoff levels. Grayson and Jevon are playing fine for regular season, but not sure either one is more than like an 8th/9th guy come playoff time. Jingles and Pat have shown flashes of playoff calibre rotation play, but aren’t there consistently just yet. Middleton looked rusty before getting hurt again, at this point it feels like the season will pretty much come down to if he is able to get back and round into vintage Khris form in time for the playoffs. Believe KM is eligible for a huge extension coming up, deadline might be Horst’s best chance to to dodge that bullet.
  17. sveumrules
    Nice, congrats to Lamar making it back to affiliated ball. Assuming the Paddle Heads play in the same stadium that the old Missoula Pioneer League teams played at it is a real launching pad. If anyone is looking for some good winter reading, The Only Rule Is It Has To Work by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller does a nice job of mixing analytics with the human side of Indy League ball.
  18. sveumrules
    From 2020-21 there were 263 players with at least 400 PA. Hiura ranked 250th by wRC+ (72) and 3rd in K% (36.6%). He hadn't done anything to earn regular playing time entering 2022. Over the first month (4/7 to 5/5) of the season he posted a 97 wRC+ and 47.6 K% before being sent down to AAA. Upon his return he was scorching hot for 10 days (228 wRC+ | only 31.6 K%) from 5/18 to 5/28 followed up by going ice cold for 10 days (46 wRC+ | 54.8 K%) from 5/30 to 6/9 which earned him a week off. He bounced back alright over the next two months of sporadic playing time with a 184 wRC+ and 38.5 K% over 78 PA from 6/15 to 8/22 with a month at AAA mixed in. However, as it typically is with Keston it was too good to be true and he finished the season with a 63 wRC+ and 39.8 K% over his final 93 PA from 8/23 to 10/5.
  19. sveumrules
    I thought trading was the 2022/23 offseason theme. Contreras/Payamps/Yeager for Ruiz. Winker/Toro for Wong Junk/Peguero/Seminaris for Renfroe. Wilson, Henry, Guerra, Miller all dealt for in minor moves.
  20. sveumrules
    Brewers starting pitchers by rWAR with league rank and team wins... 2017: 14.2 rWAR (8th) 86 W 2018: 11.2 rWAR (15th) 96 W 2019: 9.9 rWAR (15th) 89 W 2021: 22.3 rWAR (2nd) 95 W 2022: 13.0 rWAR (14th) 86 W The Brewers have had an elite rotation for one of the last five full seasons.
  21. sveumrules
    I don’t think Wiemer and Taylor having similar value is that far off. Since 2020 Tyrone is one of 116 OF with at least 600 PA, essentially four per team. His 3.6 WAR ranks 61st ahead of Conforto (3.5), Haniger (3.3), Profar (3.1), Castellanos (3.0), Avisail (2.8), Joc (2.2), Bellinger (2.1), etc. Not bad for a CF-capable “fourth outfielder” still making league minimum with four years of team control remaining. Sure, Wiemer has higher upside, but also still has some bust factor that has to be considered. TT doesn’t have that same upside, but he’s already established a higher floor as a legit MLB OF. Wiemer would have higher value to a rebuilding team looking for future value, while TT would have higher value to a team looking for present value.
  22. sveumrules
    Right, add up the transactional wins and subtract the transactional losses and the Brewers come out pretty far ahead over the last five years or so. I believe that is a sign of a mostly sound organizational process. It definitely isn’t the result of outspending the competition. I’m not saying they had a crystal ball to see exactly into the future, just that having a demonstrated track record of being kinda smart might have played some role in identifying Ruiz as a publicly undervalued asset relative to the higher valuation placed on him by certain other teams.
  23. sveumrules
    FanGraphs Depth Charts currently give the Cardinals a projected 4.5 WAR edge at 46.7 for STL vs 42.2 for the Crew… LINK Positions break down as… Ca: (STL 3.3 | MIL 3.3) 1B: (STL 4.5 | MIL 2.4) 2B: (STL 3.6 | MIL 2.4) SS: (STL 3.7 | MIL 4.0) 3B: (STL 5.5 | MIL 3.0) OF: (STL 11.0 | MIL 8.1) DH: (STL 2.1 | MIL 1.3) SP: (STL 9.7 | MIL 15.0) RP: (STL 3.3 | MIL 2.7)
  24. sveumrules
    Or maybe while the Brewers scouted Ruiz leading up to the deadline they noticed A’s scouts were frequently in attendance too and put two and two together. No doubt some degree of luck was involved, but some of that luck also could have been the residue of design.
  25. sveumrules
    Feliciano’s breakout at A+ (129 wRC+) came during his age 20 season and was accompanied by a 6.0 BB% and an alarming 28.8 K%. Quero just finished up his age 19 season split between A/A+ and while he didn’t hit quite as well with only a 116 wRC+ he showed a much better plate discipline profile with a 7.4 BB% and 18.8 K%. I don’t think anyone is haunted by anything, but to carry out the analogy I’d wager Quero ends up more helped along by the ghost of Maldonado past than he ends up spooked by the spectre of Feliciano (or other catchers with completely different profiles).
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