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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip. We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots. This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out. That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.
  2. sveumrules
    Yeah, coming into the season they were slight favorites over STL for the Division, but for all intense porpoises it was a coin flip. We all knew if the coin flip didn’t fall our way that we’d be fighting it out for a Wild Card with about five teams vying for the three spots. This team was always a clear step down from LA/ATL/NYM for me, after 50 games I thought they had a chance to be at the top of that next tier, but Hader blew up, starting pitchers got hurt, the offense went MIA for stretches, the deadline didn’t work out. That it took so much going wrong for this team to likely end up missing out on the playoffs by a couple two tree games when all is said & done is (to me anyway) more of just “baseball happening” than it is any indictment of this season being some kind of embarrassing organizational failure.
  3. sveumrules
    Yeah, even for as good as Woody’s been (9th in rWAR & 11th in fWAR since 2019) the idea of locking any pitcher up on a big money long term extension with the Yelich contract already on the books feels like a dicey proposition. If they were to extend anyone this off-season for big money my guess would be Adames since there is seemingly less risk in his profile as a legit defensive SS with the arm/power to slide to 3B down the road if needed plus the intangibles & leadership stuff. But even then, you’re getting into 50 million a year tied up in Christian/Willy for like the next six seasons, which is a pretty big percentage of the payroll.
  4. sveumrules
    Brewers are 31-31 against teams over .500, 7th best in MLB. Against teams under .500 they are now 51-40, 16th in MLB. When they miss the playoffs it will be more due to not taking care of business against bad teams than not being to hang with the big boys. The pitchers faced the same underwhelming opposition & are 18th in R/G.
  5. sveumrules
    Luis Castillo is a starting pitcher in his age 29 season who just signed a 5 year, 108 million dollar contract extension one year out from free agency. Since Brandon Woodruff is a starting pitcher in his age 29 season two years out from free agency, I thought maybe we could use that as a jumping off point. Here’s how they stack up since Woodruff’s first season as a starter in 2019… Castillo 2019-22: 100 GS | 587 IP | 27.0 K% | 9.0 BB% | 0.89 HR9 | 77 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 14.1 rWAR | 13.9 fWAR Woodruff 2019-22: 90 GS | 516 IP | 29.9 K% | 6.3 BB% | 0.98 HR9 | 72 ERA- | 72 FIP- | 15.0 rWAR | 13.2 fWAR About as close as it gets, really. Brandon better on a rate basis, Luis a lil more durable. Given Woodruff has one extra year of Arby’s & won’t be hitting FA until after his age 31 season, maybe something like 6/125 would work for both parties? Just for the sake of comparison, here is Burnes as a SP since 2020… Corbin 2020-22: 68 GS | 405 IP | 33.3 K% | 6.3 BB% | 0.69 HR9 | 64 ERA- | 58 FIP- | 13.1 rWAR | 13.8 fWAR Comparable WAR to Luis/Brandon, but in about 110-180 fewer IP on account of the massive edge in ERA- and FIP-.
  6. sveumrules
    Yup. For all the talk of “wasting a year of Burnes and Woodruff with this offense” or all the McCutchen/Hiura controversy, the offense is still 8th in R/G with the position players wRC+ improved six points from last year too. They did what they were supposed to. Pitching, on the other hand, currently 18th in R/G after finishing 3rd last year. Bullpen has been especially leaky compared to past Stearns squads. 35-27 (.565 W%) might seem pretty solid on the surface, but is a couple steps down from the 146-86 (.629 W%) record the Brewers pen posted from 2018-21. Would have an extra four wins if this year’s pen posted the 2018-21 W%.
  7. sveumrules
    Yup. For all the talk of “wasting a year of Burnes and Woodruff with this offense” or all the McCutchen/Hiura controversy, the offense is still 8th in R/G with the position players wRC+ improved six points from last year too. They did what they were supposed to. Pitching, on the other hand, currently 18th in R/G after finishing 3rd last year. Bullpen has been especially leaky compared to past Stearns squads. 35-27 (.565 W%) might seem pretty solid on the surface, but is a couple steps down from the 146-86 (.629 W%) record the Brewers pen posted from 2018-21. Would have an extra four wins if this year’s pen posted the 2018-21 W%.
  8. sveumrules
    Yeah, SS offense has ticked up notably over the last five years or so. League average wRC+ for SS from 2013-17 was 87, 90, 87, 92, 92. From 2018 to 2022 it has been 97, 100, 102, 99, 96. Offense at 2B has been up the last couple two seasons too with average wRC+ at 99, 98 compared to 93, 92, 89 from 2018-20. Buncha second basemen went nuts in 2016 with league average wRC+ at 106 that year after being at 94 in 2015 then dropping back down to 98 in 2017.
  9. sveumrules
    Thought I’d put together a quick & dirty Wild Card Win Matrix for the last 15 games. First column is Brewers record with the parenthetical records being what PHI/SD would need to do correspondingly for MKE to finish with a better record. 15-0 (12-4 | 11-4) 14-1 (11-5 | 10-5) 13-2 (10-6 | 9-6) 12-3 (9-7 | 8-7) 11-4 (8-8 | 7-8) 10-5 (7-9 | 6-9) 9-6 (6-10 | 5-10) 8-7 (5-11 | 4-11) 7-8 (4-12 | 3-12) Anything worse than 11-4 and some help is going to be needed. For whatever it is or isn’t worth the various projections give one of the above scenarios something like a 24 to 34 percent of playing out in this particular reality. Dire math for sure, but not zero just yet.
  10. sveumrules
    32-18 to start the year, 46-50 since. Yeah, they’re ten games over on the season, & still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but they’ve been mediocre for months now. With the rotation down to Burnes, Woodruff and a prayer at this point I think the Crew’s current true talent level is closer to a .479 W% (last 96) than it is to a .534 W% (season to date). To make the playoffs they’ll prolly have to find a way to recapture that First Fifty magic & go like 11-5 down the stretch. Not impossible, but looking increasingly improbable..
  11. sveumrules
    Don’t the Brewers need to make the WS or NLCS or something for Stearns to opt out early after this season? Whatever the contract details are or aren’t, the organizational infrastructure currently in place is larger than any one person. If Dave wants to go to the Mets, he’s more that earned that right. If he’d prefer to stay here & try to win one with the deck stacked against him, that’s cool with me too.
  12. sveumrules
    Chourio’s overall batting line at Wisco was 19% better than league average. 8 HR in only 142 PAs is pretty good. There were 198 players who got at least 100 PAs in the Midwest League this year with Jackson’s isolated slugging ranking 21st. The 20 guys above him had an average age of 22. Jackson also made major progress on his K rate trimming it to 21.8% at Wisco vs 28.0% in Carolina.
  13. sveumrules
    Correct. The DEF column on the FG leaderboards includes fielding & positional adjustment. Going back to 2018, Rowdy is one of 25 first basemen with at least 2,000 innings. He ranks 22nd in DRS (-12), 13th in UZR (+0.7) and 22nd in OAA (-17). Among 305 players with at least 1,000 PAs since 2018, Rowdy ranks 267th on the bases at -9.9 runs. Limiting it to just 1B he is 30th of 48. Definitely kills a lot of his value afield & on the bases, even compared to other 1B.
  14. sveumrules
    Cam Wagoner picks up the Carolina win with 4.2 IP | 0 R | 4 H | 1 BB | 4 K in relief. Now at 24 K | 2 BB in 19.2 IP since being drafted. Robert Moore reached all five times (single | double | three walks), while EBJ (single | two walks), Jace Avina (single | double), Luis Castillo (two singles | walk) and Jadher Areinamo (single | FIRST CAROLINA DOUBLE) also reached base multiple times.
  15. sveumrules
    2021 Brewers were +61 DRS (6th), +31.1 UZR (3rd), -18 OAA (23rd) and +12.5 framing (2nd). 2022 Brewers so far are +34 DRS (10th), -0.4 UZR (17th), -1 OAA (19th) and +8.5 framing (4th). In the two defensive stats I put the most faith in, DRS and catcher framing, they are slightly worse but still comfortably positive. Pretty sure UZR still eliminates shifted plays from their IF accounting which gives it limited value there and Outs Above Average has always spit out the wonkiest results to my eye, even though it should theoretically have the best framework. Also don’t believe OAA includes throwing for OF, just fielding plays. In terms of DRS it’s mostly Wong (+6 in 2021 to -5 so far this year) and CF (+18 to +4) where they’ve lost ground.
  16. sveumrules
    Jacob's Ladder, cuz the kid's got scary stuff.
  17. sveumrules
    From 1983 to 2007 the only non-expansion teams to win fewer games than the Brewers were the Royals & Pirates. A quarter Century of irrelevance. Talk about an epic hangover after 1982. From 2008 to 2022, lets call it the Participation Trophy Era, the Brewers have won the 7th most games in MLB. Only the Braves, Red Sox, Rays, Cardinals, Yankees and Dodgers have won more games. Until MLB completely overhauls its economic system, this is the ceiling. The World Series will always be a crazy longshot. No manager is going to change that. The Dodgers have won 72 more games & counting than the next best team over the last decade, made the playoffs every year, spent around 2.25 billion on payroll (about twice the Brewers franchise value) & only have a pandemic weirdened World Series trophy to show for it. The next three winningest teams of the last decade - Yankees, Cardinals and Indians - have two WS losses and zero WS wins to show for it. Because even with the deck stacked in your favor it is incredibly hard to win the World Series. Understanding that reality and setting one's expectations accordingly does not equate to settling for mediocrity.
  18. sveumrules
    Looks like former Brewers farmhand Cooper Hummel is on the active roster of the DBacks. Currently rocking a 169/272/284 (58 OPS+) line with a 32% K rate over 169 PAs. Has started five games behind the dish (including yesterday so maybe we'll see him back there this series), 17 games in LF and 12 games at DH so far for ARI.
  19. sveumrules
    Big Jon Big Three Run Bomb. 5-3 Sounds after 8.
  20. sveumrules
    Don’t the Brewers have to make the WS or NLCS or something for Stearns to opt out after this season? Admire your optimism.
  21. sveumrules
    Here are some pre-1982/post-1947 seasons for guys who posted similar K%+ and wRC+ numbers as 2022 Hiura so far... 1968 Willie Crawford (230 K%+ / 133 wRC+), 1975 Schmidt (225/142), 1975 Tony Solaita (224/147), 1979 Gorman (223/138), 1978 Gorman (210/143), 1953 Larry Doby (210/139), 1949 Andy Seminick (209/138), 1969 Dick Allen (202/160), 1977 Bernie Carbo (201/147), 1971 Willie Stargell (197/186), 1971 Reggie Jackson (196/148), 1978 Reggie (194/138), 1948 Doby (192/134), 1977 Stargell (192/139), 1957 Joe Adcock (190/142), 1961 Steve Bilko (189/140), 1968 Dick Allen (189/159).
  22. sveumrules
    Using raw K% will naturally limit the pool of players & skew recent, but substituting K%+ (which adjusts for era) makes it a little more interesting. Over the last 40 years there are 13,640 individual seasons with at least 190 PAs. Keston's K%+ of 187 is 130th on that list. Players with a higher K%+ (187) and wRC+ (139) than 2022 Hiura include 1989 Canseco (188/144), 1990 Canseco (191/157), 1990 BO JACKSON (191/140), 2007 Jack Cust (194/145), 1982 Reggie (200/145) and 1992 Deer (208/145).
  23. sveumrules
    Building out on the "at least two seasons so far" idea from above, here is a more broken up look at the stretch from May 31st through August 26th when the team went 33-41... May 31 - June 11 (1-10) O: 3.18 R/G | 77 wRC+ | -1.63 WPA P: 5.99 ERA | 5.70 FIP | -2.87 WPA (Offense was bad, pitching was worse) June 12 - June 29 (11-5) O: 4.94 R/G | 119 wRC+ | +1.46 WPA P: 3.55 ERA | 3.65 FIP | +1.54 WPA (Pretty even positive contributions from both) June 30 - July 17 (6-10) O: 4.69 R/G | 101 wRC+ | -1.42 WPA P: 4.43 ERA | 4.59 FIP | -0.58 WPA (Offense pretty much hit to their season totals by R/G and wRC+ but got killed in high leverage spots with that -1.42 WPA) July 22 - July 30 (7-1) O: 6.88 R/G | 148 wRC+ | +1.59 WPA P: 4.03 ERA | 3.55 FIP | +1.41 WPA (Offense crushing out of the ASB) July 31 - August 26 (8-15) O: 3.74 R/G | 88 wRC+ | -1.80 WPA P: 4.00 ERA | 4.49 FIP | -1.70 WPA (About equal blame on both sides following the trade deadline)
  24. sveumrules
    On the season as a whole the Brewers have scored 4.57 runs per game (8th in MLB), while allowing 4.31 runs per game (17th in MLB). To this point I would say the offense has definitely performed better than the pitching relative to preseason expectations. But we also know there have been (at least) two seasons so far, the first 50 games where the team went a franchise best 32-18 and the last 77 games when they have been much more like the pre-Attanasio Brewers at 36-41. So, let's break it down along those lines. First 50 games the Brewers offense scored 4.56 runs per game. Their wRC+ of 101 and WPA of +1.13 both ranked 11th in MLB. The pitchers posted a 3.28 ERA (4th), 3.31 FIP (2nd) and +5.87 WPA (2nd). This was all pretty much to script. Last 77 games the Brewers offense has scored 4.58 runs per game. Their wRC+ of 106 and WPA of -0.59 both rank 14th in MLB. The pitchers have posted a 4.28 ERA (22nd), 4.40 FIP (24th) and -1.91 WPA (22nd). Offense has mostly held serve, pitchers have flipped the script. Hopefully this 3-0 start to the Garrett Mitchell era can kick off a third season that takes the Brewers beyond the first week of October.
  25. sveumrules
    I don’t care what anyone says, I still believe this is a team of density. Almost 5,400 pounds according to the listed weights on MLB dot com.
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