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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    On the FanGraphs leaderboards there is a League Average option at the top along with Player Stats and Team Stats. Once on League Average, use the Split drop down menu to select positions or other splits. B-Ref also has a pretty comprehensive League Splits page where you can click on individual splits to see how each team ranks in that particular split... https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2022
  2. sveumrules
    Silver lining to Harper breaking his thumb is they can put Castellanos back at DH.
  3. sveumrules
    Cutch (91 OPS+ | 0 DRS | -0.1 WAR) Castellanos (96 OPS+ | -12 DRS | -0.7 WAR) Lots of season left, but looks like going all in on Castellanos wouldn’t have SOLVDD our WOAHs. April & May were brutal, but if Cutch can keep his OPS around 750-800 or so the rest of the way (projections have him between 730-775) that’ll play. League average OPS so far is 700 (RF), 720 (LF) and 723 (DH) at the spots he has played this year.
  4. sveumrules
    The offensive environment was way higher in 2018-20 than it is this year. Braun’s 2018-20 OPS+ was 110, which would be 4th on the current team behind Renfroe, Rowdy and Adames.
  5. sveumrules
    Grayson + #24 should be enough to move them up into the teens if someone they want drops. It was five years ago now, but in 2017 the Jazz traded #24 + Trey Lyles and moved all the way up to #13 to draft Donovan Mitchell. Lyles had 2 years left on his rookie deal at the time vs 1 year at 8.5 million for Grayson, but Allen has also proven to be a useful rotation player where Lyles had been a net negative on the court (but with ever elusive upside still) when he was dealt.
  6. sveumrules
    Gotta go with Burnes cutter because it seems like Corbin is much better at throwing the pitch for strikes in the zone, either swinging or takes. Devin’s change seems like it gets more swing & miss out of the zone, but he has a harder time throwing it for strikes.
  7. sveumrules
    4/7-5/15 (Renfroe/Adames healthy) 103 wRC+ 5/24-6/5 (Renfroe/Adames hurt) 83 wRC+ 6/8-6/19 (Renfroe/Adames back) 104 wRC+
  8. sveumrules
    Without seeing the actual quote, I would imagine Stearns was talking about in the near term. I would put the odds of them trading for zero hitters before the deadline at about one percent. Guess it also depends on what qualifies as a “major” improvement. I’d say getting Adames/Renfroe back off the DL & cutting the guy with a 32 OPS+ should be an improvement to some degree or another.
  9. sveumrules
    Mudcats doing their best to salvage the day, currently up 12-5 top of 8th. Going down the lineup everyone has reached at least twice: Garcia (1-4, BB), Chourio (2-4, 2B, 3B, BB), Quero (2-5, 2B), Hebert (2-5), Carmona (2-2, HR, 3 BBs), Chirinos (1-3, 2 BBs), Raabe (3-3, 2B, BB) and Vargas (1-2, BB, HBP) except for Oswal Leones (0-5, 2 K, 6 LOB).
  10. sveumrules
    Wes Clarke (3-5, 2B), Arbert Cipion (2-4, 3B), Joey Wiemer (2-3), Pedro Severino (1-2, HR) and Garrett Whitley (1-2, 2B) providing the only early “pop” (I like what you did there @Mass Haas) among Brewers farmhands thus far.
  11. sveumrules
    Dollar/WAR framework comes from looking at past free agent contracts & then seeing how much value those players went on to provide. Actual studies are obviously much more comprehensive, but looking at the top dozen free agents from Lo Cain’s offseason does a pretty good job of illustrating the quagmires of FA & how Lorenzo’s contract ends up in the black… Hosmer 7/144 (3.7 WAR) Darvish 6/126 (8.3 WAR) JD Mart 6/110 (14.3 WAR) Lorenzo 5/80 (11.6 WAR) Arrieta 4/75 (1.8 WAR) Santana 3/60 (7.6 WAR) A Cobb 4/57 (3.1 WAR) W Davis 3/52 (-1.3 WAR) J Bruce 3/39 (-0.2 WAR) Chatwood 3/38 (0.8 WAR) Cozart 3/38 (-1.1 WAR) Minor 3/28 (11.8 WAR) Here’s the most recent FG article I could find on the topic,though they use a forward looking methodology (dollars divided by projected WAR at time of signing) vs a backward looking methodology (dollars divided by WAR at contract conclusion)… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-per-war-in-free-agency/
  12. sveumrules
    First thing I thought when I saw Lorenzo on the Brewers ASG graphic was that voting him in seems like one of those things that is just ridiculous enough that the internet could get behind.
  13. sveumrules
    There are only eight teams that are even trying to win in the NL this year. Of the Brewers 95 remaining games, only 41 are against teams angling for a playoff spot. Even after a 1-10 stretch the Brewers “bottomed out” at seven games over .500. After Sunday’s game the Brewers will have completed over half their road schedule for the year, 41 road games vs only 27 at home. The schedule is about to flip from pretty heavily against the Brewers to pretty solidly in their favor with 14 more home games than road games the rest of the way, Publicly available projection have the Brewers finishing between 87-89 wins. Just context, no optimism necessary.
  14. sveumrules
    Cain opting out in 2020 essentially knocked 16 million off his deal too, so it ends up closer to 64 million instead of 80. If he retired or whatever so we didn’t have to pay him the rest of the year (which I don’t expect) that could possibly bring that down closer to like 55 million. 7th place finish in MVP voting, go ahead RBI in Game 163, NLCS run in 2018. Then two league average years by WAR with GG caliber CF defense in 2019/21. Lorenzo more than earned his contract, hope he & his family can enjoy it for lifetimes & that he gets a complimentary 2022 WS ring this autumn.
  15. sveumrules
    Nashville wins 4-1. Davis (2-4, 2B), Turang (2-4, BB) and a Wes Wilson HR accounted for most of the action while Dahl & Feliciano both added a 1B/BB each to their season tallies as well. Boushley went 6 IP | 1 R | 3 H | 3 BB | 4 K to start things off with Hardy, Gustave & Zack Brown recording a scoreless frame of relief each.
  16. sveumrules
    Biloxi wins 6-5 with Dillard (two doubles), Devanny (2-5 with a 2B), Holt (3-4) and Coca (2-3, with a 2B/BB) doing most of the damage. Pretty solid pitching all around with 4 of 5 runs unearned and both Contreras & Vennaro striking out a pair each out of the pen while Bennet went 5 IP | 1 R | 5 H | 2 BB | 6 K to start things off.
  17. sveumrules
    Wisco loses 3-0 with Peters & Clarke saving the TRats from being no hit. Pretty impressive looking outing for Jarvis though, 6 IP | 2 R | 2 H | 3 BB | 11 K.
  18. sveumrules
    Garcia with a HR/1B, Chourio a 2B/BB, Quero staying hot 3-4, Mendez a pair of hits and Carlos Rodriguez 5 IP | 0 R | 2 H | 2 BB | 1 K. Carolina leads 4-1 top of 7th.
  19. sveumrules
    The denominator is plate appearances because Hiura (& every other player) has walked in zero percent of their at bats.
  20. sveumrules
    On June 29th of 2014 the Brewers were 51-32 with a 6.5 game lead in the division. FanGraphs thought they had a 57.4% chance to win the NLC at that point. Despite having the largest division lead in MLB at that point, the Brewers Division Odds were lower than all other division leaders at that point other than the Blue Jays, who had a 1.5 game lead in the ALE, Today the Brewers are 34-28 and are 1.5 games back in the division with FanGraphs giving them a 55.2% chance to win the NLC. That their division odds are essentially equal at this point to their division odds in 2014 despite being 13 fewer games over .500 with an 8 game smaller division lead while still 21 games farther away from the finish line illustrates how much better the 2022 team is (on a spreadsheet anyway) than the 2014 team was.
  21. sveumrules
    The main hurdle is each of the thirty teams has their own individual broadcast agreements (some even own the network) covering decades & billions upon billions of dollars… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/ Pretty sure this is why local blackouts on MLBtv aren’t going away any time soon, people would be canceling their cable in droves.
  22. sveumrules
    Yeah, after 62 games last year the Brewers were 35-27 (one game ahead of this year) & FanGraphs had the division odds at MIL 57.5% | CHI (who were also 35-27) 26.6% | STL (32-30) 9.6% | CIN (29-31) 6.3%.
  23. sveumrules
    On May 30th FanGraphs had the NLC Division Odds at MIL 85.7% and STL 14.1%. Today, after going 2-10 on their last dozen games, FanGraphs has the NLC Division Odds at MIL 61.6% and STL 38.0%.
  24. sveumrules
    If Stearns can’t even put together a Championship caliber team (thought it was just offense before), why would the Mets (who currently have the best record in the NL) want him to begin with?
  25. sveumrules
    Sal Frelick with a pair of doubles & Noah Campbell with a bomb for Biloxi. TJ Shook shook them, well not all night long, but for 5 IP with 2 ER | 4 H | 2 BB | 6 K. Trailing 3-2 top of 8th.
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