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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Yeah, I think Cain has already lost the starting CF job. Tyrone started 4 of 5 in CF from 5/18 to 5/23 with Lorenzo only getting regular PAs again following the Renfroe injury. See what happens when Hunter is back, but I would guess TT keeps getting regular time in CF with Lorenzo shifting to more of the 4th OF role.
  2. sveumrules
    It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020… rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3 fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9 ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65 FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62 Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap. Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.
  3. sveumrules
    It’s really kinda insane how it’s been Burnes in a category of his own (at least among qualifiers) since 2020… rWAR: 11.7 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.3 fWAR: 11.4 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 10.9 ERA-: 53 (1st) Scherzer 2nd @ 65 FIP-: 48 (1st) Wheeler 2nd @ 62 Wheeler comes close in the WARs because he has an extra 44 IP, but when you are 12-14% better than the next best guys in ERA/FIP over the course of almost 300 IP that is a pretty massive gap. Of course deGrom has been a whole other magnitude of ridiculous at 40 ERA- | 39 FIP-, but only 160 IP.
  4. sveumrules
    Brewers have used 38 different lineups this year, with the most common being Wong / Adames / Yelich / McCutchen / Tellez / Renfroe / Narvaez / Cain / Peterson seven times. Checking the eight teams with a higher runs per game than the Brewers so far it looks like they are at LAD (31 lineups), SFG (39), NYM (42), BOS (37), LAA (47), STL (44), COL (42) and NYY (44). Looks like lotsa lineups is a league wide phenomenon. Also couldn’t believe HOU isn’t scoring more than us & despite six regulars roping Altuve (154 OPS+), Peña (146), Bregman (124), Brantley (128), Tucker (126) and Yordan (157), they are only 21st in runs per game.
  5. sveumrules
    Using 1986 as a somewhat arbitrary starting point (first year I remember baseball), here is how Josh ranks so far among all relievers (min. 250 IP)… 50 ERA- (3rd) behind Mariano (46) and Britton (47). 59 FIP- (6th) tied with Gagne/Kenley behind Smoltz (53), Aroldis (55), Kimbrel/Betances (56), Giles (58). 194 K%+ (3rd) tied with Chapman behind Kimbrel (197) and Dibble (213). 56 AVG+ (1st) Kimbrel is 2nd at 64, which is a pretty huge gap. 121 LOB%+ (1st) another pretty big gap over 2nd, Hideki Okajima at 116 with Mariano, Wagner, Koji Uehara and Darren O’Day at 115. If we narrow it to just 2021-22 since Josh has really mastered the slider he is at 73 IP | 23 ERA- | 39 FIP- | 193 K%+ | 48 AVG+ | 129 LOB%+, so a pretty clear notch above his early career. Also has trimmed his HR9+ to 30 over the last two years vs the dead on league average 100 HR9+ he posted from 2017-20.
  6. sveumrules
    Here’s how Josh stacks up among some of the best relievers of recent vintage over their first 300 IP or so… Hader | 297 IP | 50 ERA- | 59 FIP- | 12.3 rWAR | 9.7 fWAR | +15.39 WPA Mariano | 326 IP | 44 ERA- | 61 FIP- | 14.6 rWAR | 9.5 fWAR | +15.08 WPA Hoffman | 287 IP | 78 ERA- | 81 FIP- | 6.7 rWAR | 5.0 fWAR | +8.48 WPA Wagner | 280 IP | 65 ERA- | 67 FIP- | 8.6 rWAR | 7.4 fWAR | +5.74 WPA Chapman | 319 IP | 56 ERA- | 50 FIP- | 10.9 rWAR | 11.3 fWAR | +10.84 WPA Kimbrel | 289 IP | 38 ERA- | 41 FIP- | 12.3 rWAR | 11.0 fWAR | +12.01 WPA Kenley | 287 IP | 62 ERA- | 53 FIP- | 8.6 rWAR | 9.2 fWAR | +8.67 WPA
  7. sveumrules
    Yelich’s performance didn’t take off until the 2nd half of 2018. If there was some sort of nefarious activity afoot Aguilar & Schoop’s performance makes me think they had the indicator backward. Nothing really fishy about anybody’s lines in 2019 either. Obviously Hiura hasn’t repeated his performance, but he killed it in AAA that year & hadn’t been “figured out” yet. Arcia (64 OPS+), Shaw (45 OPS+), Hernan (64 OPS+) & Aguilar (80 OPS+) must have opted out in 2019 if something was up. Over 2018-19 the Brewers were 13th in runs scored and 12th in position player wRC+. As a team they had 55.4 batting runs with Yelich posting 110 batting runs by himself. That means rest of the hitters were a combined -54.6 batting runs. Well, Arcia was -48.5 too, so outside of Yelich & Arcia the rest of the hitters were around -6.1 batting runs. If there was some kind of sign stealing set up in place it wasn’t terribly effective.
  8. sveumrules
    Leading all pitchers in Win Probability Added (again). Only pitchers with a higher WPA since 2017 (Scherzer & deGrom) currently hurt. He’d probably need to put up a season like whatever year Gagne went nuts to get serious consideration. Gagne 2003 | 82 IP | 262 K%+ | 74 BB%+ | 30 ERA- | 19 FIP- | 4.4 rWAR | 4.7 fWAR | +6.32 WPA.
  9. sveumrules
    HADER
  10. sveumrules
    Just when I thought I was out...they pull me back in!!
  11. sveumrules
    All time classic game thread...
  12. sveumrules
    & Brosseau walks on ball five,
  13. sveumrules
    Four Base Jace strikes again!!!!
  14. sveumrules
    Kind of crazy to think the umpires at AAA, AA and below are even worse than the guys at MLB.
  15. sveumrules
    Maybe if the twitterers bug McCalvy enough about it he’ll try to find out? Only thing that really makes sense is that McCutchen got some kind of guarantee for regular PAs to start the year, hopefully with the understanding that those opportunities would be scaled back if he didn’t take advantage of them as the season goes on.
  16. sveumrules
    Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present). Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017. At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism.
  17. sveumrules
    Among catchers Omar is 5th in WAR so far this year, 9th in WAR during his time with the Brewers (2020-present) and 8th in WAR since he started getting regular PAs (2017-present). Outside of 2020, he has been above average with the bat for a catcher every year of his career with his wRC+ ranking 9th since 2017. At this point he has almost 1,800 PAs with the statistical record of a top ten catcher in MLB. That is some deep rooted skepticism.
  18. sveumrules
    Cool to see Jackson Chourio (4 for 5 with a 2B) put on a show for Willy down in Carolina. Big bummer about Carlos Rodriguez though. Hopefully he gets some good news & it’s nothing too severe. Gotta think Arbert Cipion would get the call up, though I’m sure he’d prefer it to be under different circumstances.
  19. sveumrules
    So when you say real upside you mean power then? Sounds like he has plenty of upside in the hit, field and run (& intangibles for whatever that is or isn’t worth) categories. Brewers scouting department doesn’t seem to think height is an eliminating factor. Frelick, Hedbert & Quero are listed 5’10”, Valerio is 5’ 7”, Urias & Wong 5’ 9” at the MLB level. Almost feels like maybe they think short players are an undervalued player type, especially with the looming automated strike zone where shorter players will have smaller defined zones.
  20. sveumrules
    Who are some players projected to be available around pick #27 that would excite you?
  21. sveumrules
    I agree. All factors should be taken into consideration for all teams. That’s why I thought attributing any slippage solely to the schedule was somewhat misleading. It’s certainly been a factor in the current ebb, but not the only one.
  22. sveumrules
    Now that the schedule has toughened up is one way to frame it. Another contributing factor could be Adames missing the last 11 games and Renfroe missing the last four.
  23. sveumrules
    Ohtani DHs on the days he pitches & they changed the rule so he can stay in the game at DH when he’s done pitching. Looks like his seasonal splits so far are 36 DH only, 8 P/DH & 2 days off where Trout DHed. Cutrently at 121 wRC+ in 195 PAs and 92 ERA- | 61 FIP- in 44 IP which is good for about 1.5 to 2.0 WAR so far depending on which varieties one prefers.
  24. sveumrules
    Was just following the box score / game day here & there when I saw he had been removed from the game & thought “oh no that’s not good”, then went back through the play log & saw he was ejected. ”Of relief”, I sighed.
  25. sveumrules
    100% Win Probability Achieved
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