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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Biloxi looking for a walk off their own with Frelick Valerio & Dotson due up bottom of the 10th. Wiemer was ejected after striking out in his last at bat. -
Garcia leads off with a single & Chourio walks it off with a base hit of his own!! 3-2 Carolina
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Brannon Jordan bounces back for two scoreless in extras. Garcia Chourio Mendez due up bottom 11th.
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WIS: just under way, Carlos Rodriguez keeps his hitting streak alive with the lone TRat hit of the game so far. Russell Smith was scoreless through 3.1 until I started watching on game day (should have known better) where he promptly gave up three (make that four) runs. Currently down 4-0 bottom of 4th.
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CAR: Luis Silva single, Jeferson Quero double, Hedbert Perez triple, Jesus Chirinos bomb hit for the team cycle. Miguel Segura (4.2 IP | 0 R | 2 H | 5 BB | 7 K) and Jefferson Figueroa (3 IP | 0 R | 1 H | 4 BB | 4 K) effectively wild. Brannon Jordan strikes out the first two of the 9th, do figure I’ll watch on game day, proceeds to give up a single & bomb before coming back for his 3rd K of the inning. 2-2 heading into bottom of the 9th. Chourio Mendez Quero due up.
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BIL: Sal Frelick a pair of singles. WIEMER THREE RUN BOMB. Cam Devanney single & walk. Zach Vennaro & Carlos Luna with 3.1 combined scoreless relief IP. 3-3, top of 7th.
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Select highlights so far… NAS: Jonathan Davis lead off bomb, Brice Turang with a pair of singles, Wes Wilson with a double & single, Andy Otero with 4.1 scoreless relief IP. Down 9-3, top of 8th
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How would you divvy up the 600% points among the 15 NL teams?
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Looking at the various playoff odds today I think the seller pool is starting to solidify. NL: PIT, WAS, COL, CIN, CHC, ARI, MIA AL: BAL, KCR, DET, OAK, TEX and SEA. BOS is still sitting in the 30-38% range, solidly behind the top seven contenders, so looking like a good bet to end up here barring a run over the next couple months & CLE is around 10-20% so an even longer shot for them.
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Looks like the various projections have the NL Contenders starting to separate into a few tiers (BPro | 538 | FanGraphs postseason odds)… Dodgers Tier LAD (100% | 99% | 97.7%) Best of the Rest SDP (98.8% | 88% | 91.2%) MIL (98.6% | 90% | 94.6%) NYM (94.7% | 83% | 87.3%) Wild Cards ATL (74.4% | 62% | 71.5%) PHI (60.5% | 37% | 34.4%) STL (29.7% | 54% | 42.4%) SFG (23.9% | 53% | 66.9%) Even though they’re still shaking off the rust, the computers think the Braves look like the best bet for #5 with the Phillies, Cards & Giants fighting it out for the last spot. Kind of interesting seeing the varying perspectives of the different projections on those last three. Out of the sellers MIA has the best odds (8-10%), but still a pretty big long shot at this point.
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What to do with Brandon Woodruff?
sveumrules replied to Oxy's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Woody came up today at FanGraphs in Dan Szymborski's article looking at which young players might be next in line for contract extensions... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-young-players-who-should-be-next-to-sign-long-term-deals/ Looks like his computer suggests 6 years for 131 million with a projection for about 20.5 WAR over those six seasons. -
Dillard was a righty & never put up numbers in the minors close to Milner. Tim’s best AAA season was 10.1 K9 | 3.2 BB9 | 3.12 K/BB with a career 6.0 K9 | 3.1 BB9 | 1.93 K/BB in 908 career AAA IP vs only 84 MLB IP. That is what replacement level or AAAA looks like. Hoby’s best AAA season was 13.5 K9 | 0.6 BB9 | 24.0 K/BB with an 11.9 K9 | 2.0 BB9 | 6.03 K/BB in 178 career AAA IP vs 94 MLB IP.
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Sure, one blow up outing could push his season line closer to replacement level, but his current ERA- is 79 so he’s got some breathing room. The projections aren’t quite as volatile though. Even before the season started ZiPS had him down for a 3.83 ERA | 87 ERA-. StatCast has him at an xERA of 3.07 & his SIERA is 3.47, so those computers don’t think his results this year have been overly luck reliant so far. Guess it just blows my mind a lil bit there was a whole Free Luke Barker Movement last year with a 2.35 ERA | 11.3 K9 | 1.5 BB9 | 1.3 HR9 line in Nashville, while Milner put up an even better Nashville line of 1.69 ERA | 13.5 K9 | 0.6 BB9 | 0.6 HR9 & has followed that up with a solid start to 2022 at the MLB level, but is still reflexively viewed as some kind of replacement level mop up guy.
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Milner’s xFIP- is 92 so far this year, so even with normalized HR/FB luck his line has been above average. I don’t think his current 3.24 ERA is sustainable either, but ZiPS projects him at 3.77 rest of season vs a current league average reliever ERA of 3.78. Between his performance so far this year & what the projections think I’d say it’s entirely possible Milner is closer to average than replacement level.
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No Adames, no Rowdy, no Renfroe, no Hader & we still beat a good team. Well, I guess that settles it…the Brewers are good enough to win the World Series.
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Maybe it’s been smoke & mirrors, but Milner had an 85 ERA- | 80 FIP- entering the game tonight. He’s mostly been getting the job done.
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I’m pretty sure Run Support is mostly random outside of being on a team that scores a lot of runs. Like last year Woody got 3rd worst per IP at 2.5 & so far this year he’s 22nd best per IP at 5.9. It does seem like lots of times “aces” end up getting less run support (Sheets & deGrom come to mind) but then teams will show out on offense when the #5/6 guy is on the mound. Wonder if there’s ever been a study to see how much/little run support correlates if at all to quality of pitcher.
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The GS split is entire games started by the pitcher, the IP split is while the pitcher was on the mound.
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Wong’s fielding has been pretty shaky to start the season. Already at -2 DRS | -1.4 UZR | -5 OAA before missing two plays he normally makes tonight.
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BRef has him 29th per game started & 5th per innings pitched coming into tonight… https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml
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*lineups
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Pretty ugly box. At least the TRats got on the board with a pair of runs. Wes Clarke a pair of doubles, Tristan Peters a pair of walks. Carlos Rodriguez a pair of hits including a double.
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Jeferson Quero 1-3 with two walks & Hendry Mendez also adding a pair of walks to his ledger for the Carolina teens tonight. Michele Vassalotti struck out a pair to pick up the save.
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Small with a nice outing in his return to the mound: 6 IP | 1 ER | 5 H | 0 BB | 3 K. Maybe his last gig with Nashville for awhile?
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Cronenworth was an All Star with a 122 OPS+ and 4.8 WAR last year. Brosseau is a true utility infielder.
