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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Yeah, looks like run differential did not make it into the new CBA... "CBS Sports incorrectly stated that run differential is one of the tiebreakers MLB will use instead of a Game 163 in the 2022 season in the initial version of this story. Run differential was discussed as a tiebreaker, but that rule did not make it into the new CBA. The five tiebreakers MLB is using this season are head-to-head record, intradivision record, interdivision record, last half of Intraleague games, and last half of Intraleague games plus one until the tie is broken. We apologize for the error."
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Yeah, I totally don't get it. It's not like basketball where you can just put in your garbage time squad, or the NFL where you can take out your starting QB & just run every down to eat clock. What are guys supposed to do? Straight take until the game is over?
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Yeah, Buxton is pretty nuts. Hopefully this year he finally makes it through a season unscathed by injury. Fangraphs has him at 9.5 WAR (39th) since 2019 in only 725 PAs. The guys on either side of him on the WAR leaderboard are Justin Turner (9.5 WAR | 1398 PAs) and Bryan Reynolds (9.3 WAR | 1464 PAs).
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Long has a 94.4 average FB velocity so far this year. He might be a random lefty, but not sure he’s a soft tosser. -
No balloons for June 9th? (I guess 6/9 isn’t quite as nice)
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Obviously early yet, but the “trade all our best players & spend as little as possible” Oakland Athletics are currently 9-8 while the “spend half a billion plus on free agents” Texas Rangers are 5-10.
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Yup. If the offense truly is as bad as many say it is, Balco Bonds wouldn’t be enough to put it over the top, much less Castellanos.
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Bryce Harper (26 million), JTR (23.875 million), Castellanos (20 million), Schwarber (19 million), Segura (14.25 million), Hoskins (7.7 million). Guess the Phillies didn’t have enough money left to buy a run.
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Haha, love it. Reminds me of the time Eno Sarris asked Greinke about robot umpires… “It would be a bad idea,” Greinke said. “I am very pro umpire, and everything they bring to the game.”
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Ozzie Albies had a 105 OPS+ in 2021. If that is an impact bat, then McCutchen (109 OPS+) & Renfroe (112 OPS+) are both impact bats.
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2021-2022 Bucks-Bulls Playoff Series Thread
sveumrules replied to CheezWizHed's topic in Other Sports
Awesome to see Grayson just destroy any hopes the Bulls might have had after Game 2. -
From June 1st onward the Braves won 63 games, 8th in MLB. The Dodgers (74), Giants (73), Brewers (66), Astros (66), Rays (65) and Blue Jays (64) won more with the Yankees (63) winning the same. The Braves were 52-55 on August 1st, so if anything they should serve as an example as to why getting bent out of shape a couple two tree weeks into a 26 week season is mostly pointless.
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Your opinion is we didn't have to take Renfroe back to get rid of Jackie. The Red Sox have a budget too, so taking on 17.5 million for JBJ likely required sending money back in the deal or no deal at all. If Castellanos is full time DH that means Yelich/Cain/Taylor are full time OF and we have no 4th OF. Yelich has injury/performance issues, Cain has injury/performance issues, Taylor has never played a full season. What is your solution? Sure, Castellanos offers more with the bat than Cutch/Renfroe, but his brutal D also limits roster flexibility (which Stearns & company clearly value), would have pushed payroll beyond what is already an OD record which also limits in season flexibility (another thing Stearns & company clearly value) & would have eaten into available payroll for four more years (when it will become increasingly valuable to have that payroll space available).
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In what world is a player coming off a 112 OPS+ & 2.3 WAR not worth tendering at 1/7.65, but a guy coming off a 132 OPS+ & 3.2 WAR is totally worth 5/100? "we could have just traded Bradley with the two prospects and received nothing in return" How do you know this? Stating your assumption as a fact is what is flat out wrong. I wasn't privy to discussions, but Boston has a budget too. I'd assume that taking on the 2/17.5 owed to JBJ necessitated sending back salary in the deal.
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Not nobody, but they were pretty solidly an underdog in the NL field by World Series odds. On Oct 6 last year 538 had the NL teams World Series odds at LA (25%), SF (13%), ATL (9%), MIL (7%) FanGraphs had the NL teams World Series odds at LA (24.5%), MIL (9.8%), ATL (8.3%), SF (7.0%) on that same date. The Dodgers have been the NL World Series favorite for the better part of the last decade, yet they've only won one WS in a 60 game pandemic altered season. The odds of another team beating LA in a 5 or 7 game series have been unlikely for a decade & yet it has happened every season save one.
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Yup. If JBJ is traded & we take no salary back that likely means that even more or better prospects than Binelas/Hamilton need to be attached to dump his contract. So now we're sacrificing additional future value while also limiting our in season flexibility for 2022. Signing Castellanos (if even realistically possible) would have been a very "put all your eggs in one basket move" and we have plenty of evidence now to know that just isn't how Stearns & company operate.
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You are making a ton of future assumptions just to squeeze Castellanos into this roster. 1. It's not a foregone conclusion that we lose all of Hader, Burnes and Woodruff. 2. Whichever of them are traded will likely return significant player packages to further elongate what has already been a five year window. 3. Castellanos would even make as much as a difference as you believe he would. In 2021 Cutch/Renfroe combined for 3.7 WAR, Castellanos checked in at 3.2. If Castellanos is the DH, now Taylor is the every day RF & Cain has to play every day in CF. Who is the 4th OF? When Castellanos is in the OF now Hiura (who only gets one month to figure it out per you) is the primary DH. It could end up all being moot anyway, maybe if the Phillies are still rocking a .400 winning percentage in July they will salary dump Castellanos or Schwarber on us.
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According to Cots OD payroll was 99 million in 2021 & is 132 million in 2022, payroll was raised pretty significantly. 33 million over last year & 10 million over the previous franchise high. Of course most of that difference comes down to about 30 million in Arby’s raises that Burnes, Woody, Hader, Adames, Omar, Urias, Houser, Lauer, Rowdy, etc got, but that’s the price you have to pay when you have a 95 win team full of young talent. Next year those Arby’s raises will likely be even more as everyone is another year deeper into the process, so losing Cain & McCutchen from the payroll prolly won’t be enough to cover it. As you noted, we’ll likely already have to trade some of those Arby’s guys before they hit FA. Signing Castellanos would have made threading that needle even more difficult.
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Right, Castellanos signed for five years. So he actually costs 83.5 million more than McCutchen/Renfroe. You've clearly stated your preference for A Drive Deep into Left Field numerous times now, but how what moves would you have made to not only clear JBJ's salary, but also the additional salary needed to fit Nick into what is already a franchise record OD payroll?
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Another thing is that despite being faster than ever, fastballs are being thrown with less frequency than ever. The first year measuring pitch type & velocity across the league in 2002 it was 89.0 MPH & 64.4% fastballs. So far this year it is 93.4 MPH & 48.8%. Velocity up 4.4 MPH but usage down 15.6% over the last 20 years. Squaring up an 89 MPH fastball back in 2002 for a line drive is one thing, squaring up a pitch that same speed (but now its a slider or a cutter or a change up with exponentially more movement) is a whole different thing.
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They didn't throw so hard in those days. Breaking pitches and change ups now are consistently faster than many 80s/90s fastballs were. That makes it much more difficult to hit the ball directionally. Sure hit it the other way they say, easier said than done when the pitcher is pounding 93 MPH sliders that are breaking in towards your hands, Batting average across all of MLB is .230 so far this year. The lowest it was from 1980 to 1999 was .258. Only three teams are above .258 so far this year, so I guess three teams have figured out how to get hits as well as an average team from 30-40 years ago. I long for a date with 1980's Elle MacPherson from the cover of the SI Swimsuit Issue. Neither of our dreams are coming true. The only options are to adjust expectations so they are line with the current reality or be disappointed forever longing for a past that will never re-materialize. Go Brewers.
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The Carolina number that matters most
sveumrules commented on CheeseheadInQC's blog entry in Fun with numbers
Awesome to see the renewed effort by Stearns & company in DR/VZ starting to make its way stateside. Obviously these things take time with teenagers, but more or less creating a new pipeline of talent in an area where the Brewers previously only had a few scattered “hits” kind of seems like the next logical step after flipping the organizational script on pitching development. -
Last year the Brewers won the first two games of a three game series 14 times. They were 10-4 in the third games of those series. First three game sweep of 2021 wasn’t until team games 16-18 @ SDP.
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Crazy looking at the Shuckers lineup with like half the guys below the Uecker line so far, but they just keep winning. I guess when you got a Joey & Felix one-two punch you don’t need much else.
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The Weekly: Mythological catchers
sveumrules replied to Brent Sirvio's topic in Brewer Fanatic Front Page News
How is Narvaez April sample outsized? His PAs by month were 79, 52, 82, 76, 79, and 77. The April sample was the same size as every other mon-May month. Why say it was inflated by April (972 OPS) & not that it was deflated by September (427 OPS)? Better yet, why slice it up into smaller unreliable samples at all? Last year Omar posted an .805 OPS vs RHP, since 2018 Omar has posted a .804 OPS vs RHP, that’s probably the best estimate of his true talent level vs RHP. Also curious what metrics had Omar below average behind the plate in 2021 & now regressing as the year went on to boot?
