sveumrules

I guess I'm not sure, at this point, what impact this situation has on the team. If he holds out until mid August then yeah. But he won an MVP last year with a 3 week training camp. A 3 week training camp that wasn't preceded by months of completely avoidable speculation that could really only serve as a distraction to the rest of the team.

You want to bring Beer to the Brewers? I'm in. 100%. Riley Pint just retired from the Rockies organization. Mmmm, Pint of Beer.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I would take the under on 8-8-1 if Love is our QB for 17 games this year. Picked 8-8-1 because it would be the least satisfying, except who doesn't love a good old fashioned tie? Any worse & we get a better pick, plus its justification for those who didn't like the Love pick to begin with. Any better & the team will have likely exceeded expectations & maybe even make the playoffs. Between scheme/coaching, Adams leading a well rounded receiving corps, Jones heading up a dangerous backfield, Tonyan looking like a legit weapon, & one of the better offensive lines in football, Love should be set up much better to succeed than most first year starting QBs, so I don't think the over is too unreasonable.

At this point I'd rather watch Jordan Love quarterback the pack to an 8-8-1 record than kowtow to Rodgers whims.

I'm guessing Rodgers feels very good about his trade demand/threat to retire, but so far it too has accomplished nothing.

Who ever said to drop him in at 1B with no preparation or experience? I didn't see anyone say it, or even suggest that we try him at 1B with no prep or experience. Not one person has ever said that. Tyrone has no experience playing 1B so any suggestion that he might play 1B is automatically made on that condition. Sure, he could take some grounders during BP to try & prepare, but how long do you think it would take for both TT himself & the organizational brass to feel comfortable enough to try it out for real for the first time ever in an actual game during a pennant race? How might the additional focus on trying to learn a brand new position impact Tyrone's offense, which has already been trending down (859 OPS first 49 PAs, 659 OPS last 48 PAs), in the meantime? Guess it just seems like a lot of potential risk for a little potential reward to me, especially when there are much simpler solutions (Hernan/Green/Wilson) in AAA who don't need to learn how to play the position from scratch.

Curious.... did you feel the same about Hiura and McKinney at 1B? Since 5’7” Hiura was seriously considered the Brewers first baseman, ANYONE is a possible. Your limb is shaky. McKinney had 79 innings at 1B in the minors, another 97 in the Fall League & 29 in MLB before coming to MIL, so while his experience was minimal it was still infinitely more than Tyrone's. Hiura had the offseason to prepare for & spring training to gain experience playing 1B, he also had extensive experience as a poor second basenan, so at least he had spent time in the dirt & on the right side of the IF before. The shaky limb is not realizing how different those situations are from dropping Taylor in at 1B with no preparation or experience in the middle of a pennant race when plenty of options with experience are readily available. What percent chance do you give Taylor of appearing at 1B for the Brewers this year?

That all depends on how much one considers much. The fact that Keston was able to reach MLB before anyone else in his draft class & post a 138 OPS+ over 348 PAs (even with an unsustainable BABIP/K%) is still a testament to how much natural talent he possesses as a hitter, even if he isn't fully realizing it currently. He did nothing but rope all through high school, college, the minors, his first taste of the Majors. These last 368 PAs from 2020-21 are the first time he's ever struggled in his life. Now he's got to make an adjustment. Maybe I'm some kind of crazy optimist, but I think Keston's future results will make the 22 OPS+ he has posted so far this year look like more of an outlier than the 138 mark he posted in 2019. It seems like a lot of people are giving the most stock to the most recent data points, even though they are contextually the most amomalous. Time will tell, I guess.

He had Hiura type numbers. 0 for his last 39 ABs. 17 Ks. But I thought they were just keeping him down to manipulate service time?

The most pragmatic thing to do would be to zoom out as far as possible. Might as well start with the first round of 2017, when Keston was selected 9th. Just over half (19) of the 36 first round picks in 2017 have yet to appear in MLB. Of the 17 who have gotten to MLB, Keston is one of only six with a positive WAR so far... https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2017&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round Sure, Hiura is hitting .130 in 108 at bats this year. In the 531 at bats he took before this year he hit .266. In 639 career at bats he is hitting .243. But why limit our scope to at bats & batting average, that excludes walks & extra base hits. What's kind of crazy is despite a 22 OPS+ over 122 PAs this year & an 87 OPS+ over 246 PAs last year, Keston has still been slightly above average with a 102 OPS+ over 716 career PAs. Four years ago he was viewed as one of the best bats in his draft class & for all his struggles so far the only player who has hit better than him to this point is Pavin Smith, who came off the board two picks earlier at #7. I mean if he's ever gonna be good again, it will probably require a couple two tree months in the minors & if that ends up being long enough to get an extra year down the road of someone who is maybe hopefully good again...what's there to worry about?

If CC hasn't thought of that himself, then that doesn't say much for CC. TT has zero professional innings at 1B in his career, I'll go out on a limb and say there is a 99.9% chance that he does not play his first ever inning at 1B for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021 & that there is nothing wrong with CC for never giving the idea any consideration.

NL East Division Odds FanGraphs: NYM (76.8%) ATL (14.2%) PHI (6.9%) WAS (1.9%) MIA (0.2%) PECOTA: NYM (67.7%) PHI (18.3%) ATL (7.4%) WAS (6.6%) MIA (0.0%) 538: NYM (62%) ATL (21%) PHI (10%) WAS (6%) MIA (1%) Marlins are already seven games back & need to pass three other teams to get within reach of the Mets, who even if they aren't dominant are still pretty heavy favorites at this point.

Not to nitpick, but I assume you mean among relievers? I would expect hader to be pushed a little harder starting in August or September, but no reason to burn the guy out in June. Yes, ranks are among relievers. Though Hader is currently 2nd among all pitchers, starters or relievers, by Win Probability Added with only Woodruff higher so far. It's not just a small sample, early season fluke either. Only deGrom, Scherzer & Verlander have a higher WPA than Hader since 2017.

FanGraphs has playoffs odds graphs that show the changes over the course of the season, here is the NL Central playoffs odds graph. The lowest point for the Brewers over the past month was a 37.2 percent chance of making the playoffs on May 21. I don't take any of the playoff percentages spit out by the various impartial compooters all that seriously either. Everybody knows the Brewers playoff odds are 99.999% & the .001% chance they don't make it is only if the playoffs are cancelled on account of like a meteor strike or whatever.

No doubt, they'll make additions both externally & internally over the next couple months, & maybe they won't hold up as the season progresses, but they've held up so far & won more than twice as many games as they've lost to this point. The Brewers are 6th in reliever Win Probability Added going back to 2017, they've literally been milking the margins around bullpen leverage for Stearns & company's entire competitive window, I trust they will continue to make their best effort to do so because it seems to be an integral element of their strategy.

Hader has pitched back to back 6 times this season & has never thrown more than one inning in any outing. He has not pitched three straight days all year. He's also had day off stretches of 5, 4, 5, 6, 3 & 5 days. He's pitched 24 of 58 games so far. Coming into tonight there were 72 relievers with equal or greater appearances than Josh & 81 with equal or greater innings pitched. Some might think we aren't pitching him enough, some might think we're pitching him too much, I'd say his usage has been about as close to just right as it's gonna get in this post-pandemic season.

Coming into tonight Brewers relievers were 20th by FIP based WAR (0.7), 14th by runs allowed based WAR (1.0) & 9th in Win Probability Added (+1.67). Their 55 shutdown outings rank 10th among MLB bullpens, while their 33 meltdown outings rank 19th. Only nine bullpens have more wins (13) & only two have fewer losses (6). They've given up most of their runs in low leverage situations & haven't blown very many games they should have won so far, I'd say that's holding up.

Brewers won too many games in 2016. Pavin was picked 7th, Keston went 9th. They are two of six 2017 first round picks with positive WAR so far. 19 of the 36 first round picks from 2017 have yet to even reach MLB. Oh I’m not questioning the draft pick. Didn’t even know they were in the same draft. More just dreaming up a trade for him due to our 1B issues. Totally understood. Just thought Pavin was an interesting example to show how even for as completely lost as Hiura has looked that A) he's still been better so far than 30 of 36 first rounders from 2017 and 2) a couple of the five guys who have been better than him so far we never had a chance at in the first place. tl dr, even though it's been almost four years since the pick & Keston has a lil over 700 PAs now, it's still really early in the grand scheme of things.

Brewers won too many games in 2016. Pavin was picked 7th, Keston went 9th. They are two of six 2017 first round picks with positive WAR so far. 19 of the 36 first round picks from 2017 have yet to even reach MLB.

No way Grisham makes that play imo

Omar OH MAN

Hader is currently tied for 1st by FIP based WAR, tied for 3rd by runs allowed based WAR & 1st in Win Probability Added. It'd be pretty hard to do much better than that so I think his usage pattern has been fine.

Right, the system is not very highly ranked right now, but that has very little to do with the drafting since Stearns & company took over & a lot more to do with graduating & trading numerous prospects combined with winning the 11th most games in MLB since Stearns & company took over so they haven't had many high picks to work with. Before trading for Greinke & Marcum, Baseball America ranked our farm 13th... https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2010-mlb-organizational-talent-rankings/ At the outset of Stearns & company's tenure in 2016-17, John Sickels ranked the farm system 5th/7th... https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/4/2/11333890/minor-league-baseball-farm-system-rankings-for-2016 https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/17/14297686/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2017 Based on those rankings, the Greinke trade was not the highlight of our system. Going over the Sickels team list from 2017 is pretty interesting... Kept/Graduated: Hader (#2), Woodruff (#7), Nottingham (#14), Burnes (#16), Williams (#19), Peralta (HM), Houser (HM), Suter (HM), Taylor (HM) Traded: Brinson (#1), Diaz (#4), Dubon (#5), Ortiz (#6), Phillips (#11), Grisham (#12), Lopez (#13), Cordell (#15), Lara (#17), Ponce (#18), Harrison (#20) Outside of Grisham, Stearns & company pretty much made the right call on every prospect on the list which is a big part of why we've won the 11th most games in MLB since they took over & also a big part of why the farm system is currently ranked so low...because they have won too many games to have a bunch of high picks. Maybe the picks they have made over the last three or four years will turn out to be pathetic, but given standard prospect development timelines, it is still far too early to make that call.

Definitely a pretty fun run for SD fans over the last almost 120 games now, with what looks like a bright future ahead too. After winning the 3rd fewest games from 2007-19 (only BAL & MIA were worse) they were probably a little overdue.

Outside of Ray/Erceg, which picks do you consider pathetic? No one we could have picked in the 2020 or 2019 drafts has made the majors yet & a total of three players selected after Turang in the first round of 2018 have made it to MLB at this point. Probably a little too early to draw any definitive conclusions on those drafts. Hiura has the 6th highest WAR in the 2017 1st round & two of the players with higher WAR were drafted before him. 19 of 36 first rounders in 2017 still haven't even made it to MLB, so probably still a little too early to really be certain about anything there either. Enough time has passed that it's probably safe to say Ray & Erceg won't live up to their draft positions, though that doesn't necessarily mean they won't ever contribute anything as Ray has already helped us win a game this year, but even so snagging Burnes in the 4th round has more than made up for it so far.