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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Rasmussen retired four or more batters in five of his twelve appearances in 2020.
  2. sveumrules
    Two years ago? So you're saying we should have traded Hader after winning the most games in the NL & missing the World Series by one game against the Dodgers in 2018? Who would you have dealt him for that both kept the team competitive over the next two seasons & better positioned us for 2021 forward? The last four first round picks all look pretty good so far. Hiura is already in MLB & Turang/Small/Mitchell are the consensus top three prospects in the system. Rasmussen has already debuted as a 6th rounder from 2018. Both pitching development & efforts in Latin America are the best they've ever been in franchise history since Stearns & company took over. I believe our farm is in a better position than the surface level rankings indicate.
  3. sveumrules
    Since 2014 Odorizzi has made the 11th most starts & thrown the 30th most innings in MLB. He has posted a 95 ERA-/100 FIP- over that time frame good for 15.5 runs based WAR (32nd) & 13.3 FIP based WAR (42nd) over the last eight years. He might not be great, but he is about as solidly average & dependable as it gets. If the 75 ERA-/74 FIP- he posted in 2019 is somehow indicative of a change in true talent level & not just a one year fluke, he could be a good value signing for whichever club he ends up with in 2021. Especially if it costs less than the 2/20 Taijuan Walker got.
  4. sveumrules
    Scanning the Marlins depth chart it looks like Diaz is probably in line to get most of the PAs at 2B this year. For the OF my guess would be Dickerson, Marte & Duvall are the starters with Brinson, Harrison & Magneuris Sierra battling for the 4th OF spot.
  5. sveumrules
    For those who like to read way too much into the lineup for the first spring training game...Fisher in CF with Tyrone in LF is pretty interesting.
  6. sveumrules
    Hader two bad games 2020: 1.1 IP | 4 H | 6 R | 5 BB | 2 K | 2 HR Hader 17 good games 2020: 17.2 IP | 4 H | 2 R | 5 BB | 29 K | 1 HR For the overwhelming majority of 2020 Hader was his regular old dominant self, arguably maybe even improved with the slider finally finding some consistency. ZiPS has Hader projected for the 3rd lowest FIP (2.86) in 2021 behind only Chapman (2.63) & Hendriks (2.73). Only other relievers under 3.00 are Kahnle & Diaz at 2.93. I'd guess most teams internal projection systems still have Hader as a top 5 reliever for 2021 also.
  7. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how the different ball plays out for sure. Crazy to think that 2014 was only seven years ago & that the 2.3 HR% that season was down around late 80s/early 90s pre-expansion, pre-widespread juicing levels while the 4.07 R/G in 2014 was thee lowest its been in the last 35 plus years. Also kind of telling that despite record high 3.7 & 3.5 HR% the last two seasons the corresponding R/G marks of 4.83 & 4.65 were only 6th & 16th in the 35 year sample. Halfway between the 4.65 R/G in 2020 & the low water mark of 4.07 R/G in 2014 would be 4.36 R/G. If 2021 run scoring comes in under that midway point it would make it a bottom ten offensive season over the last 35 years. Considering how HR reliant run scoring has become, I think the answer to Eye Black's question is "definitely maybe".
  8. sveumrules
    Interesting look at Yelich's 2020 & what it might or might not mean moving forward... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whither-christian-yelich/ "That’s not to say that you can’t take 2020 into account. It really happened, and Yelich was really disappointing. My point is merely this: great hitters have bad stretches. If you’re worried that Yelich has gotten worse, fair enough. I am too! Just know that lots of other people have done this before too, and you just didn’t notice it because those seasons weren’t pandemic-marred. Boring? Certainly. That doesn’t mean it’s not the best answer, though."
  9. sveumrules
    In the 23 games Holiday played the Bucks had a +9.9 point diffetential, solidly ahead of the +8.8 they posted in their 60 win season & fractions behind their +10.1 mark from last year. They weren't even really struggling.
  10. sveumrules
    I literally put together a whole post on this topic... viewtopic.php?f=63&t=39979 Even with climbing K/HR rates, balls are still put in play very often, 63.8% of PAs in 2019 ended with a ball in play vs 36.2% which ended in a K/BB/HR/HBP. There were 186,516 plate appearances in 2019. Take out the strikeouts (42,823), walks (15,895), home runs (6,776) & hit by pitch (1,984) and you are left with 119,038 PAs ending with a ball in play. Remove the singles (25,947), doubles (8,531) & triples (785) and that leaves 83,775 balls in play which were converted into outs or errors, 195% of the strikeout total. As long as there outs to be made in the field, it will always be advantageous to convert as many of them as possible.
  11. sveumrules
    In 2018 the Brewers scored the 12th most runs, in 2019 they were 15th. BPro projects them to score the 13th most runs in 2021... https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/ You might just be putting too much emphasis on an already small 60 game sample made all the noisier by a global pandemic altering the season & life in general. Or maybe not, guess we'll have to check back at the end of September. Stearns & company were in on Turner, a bat first player, so the second half of your statement is even more overstated than the first half. A run saved is just as valuable as a run scored + offense costs more than defense on the open market + the Brewers are poor compared to other MLB teams = Stearns & company's strategy makes sense to me.
  12. sveumrules
    Over the last three season JBJ's 95 wRC+ isn't all that different from Avisail's 100 wRC+, but FanGraphs has JBJ at +7.6 on the bases & +14.1 in the field compared to -5.8 on the bases & -8.1 in the field for Avisail. Add it all up & JBJ has 5.7 WAR the last three seasons compared to only 2.6 for Avisail. In 2020 the Brewers ranked dead last on the bases (-17.6) by a considerable margin (next worst was -11.1). If we sign JBJ (+7.6, 27th) to go along with Wong (+9.7, 16th) and Cain (+7.0, 30th) returning that would essentially be adding three of the top thirty baserunners over the last three seasons to the 2021 team.
  13. sveumrules
    Shooting 70% on just under 200 attempts since the 1 for 10 game.
  14. sveumrules
    LF: Yelich (145) Garcia (17) CF: Cain (110) JBJ (52) RF: Garcia (94) JBJ (68) Yelich (145) JBJ (120 vs RHP) Garcia (111) Cain (110) Plenty of starts for all four even without the DH.
  15. sveumrules
    This article attempts to break down 2020 MLB finances & apparently Manfred threw around a similar figure back in October... https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/12/22/mlb-teams-lost-1-billion-in-2020/ Commissioner Rob Manfred reportedly told Sportico in late October that MLB would suffer between $2.8 billion and $3 billion in “operational losses.”
  16. sveumrules
    Ichiro ended his career by playing the two game Tokyo Series with the Mariners to open the 2019 season.
  17. sveumrules
    Odorizzi would definitely raise the floor for the rotation & be a fun old school reunion. Crazy that the Greinke trade was ten years ago now. ZiPS projects Jake for 120 IP at 100 ERA+ (1.5 WAR) in 2021, which is essentially the Taijuan Walker projection with a few more IP. The advantages Odo has are that he has a better track record of health, his kind of maybe breakout (159 IP | 71 ERA- | 73 FIP-) in 2019 was more recent & his injuries in 2020 (blister, line drive to chest) were fluky/not arm related, though obviously blisters can be a recurring issue for some guys. Gotta figure he's looking for at least 3/30 if Walker got 2/20.
  18. sveumrules
    Even after losing five in a row, the Bucks still have the 2nd best SRS in the NBA (behind only the Jazz) & the 3rd best Net Rating (behind the Jazz & Clippers, fraction ahead of the Lakers). 538 has their odds of making the Finals at 30% & winning at 12% with Brooklyn the only East team in the same neighborhood at 26% make & 10% win Finals. If Jrue, Giannis & Khris are all healthy for the postseason they will have just as good of a chance as any other East contender to make the Finals. If they don't make it out of the East, Bud probably gets canned. Still looks like a win/win proposition to me.
  19. sveumrules
    Do you want to know the terrifying truth...or do you want to see me sock a few dingers? Since we already know the terrifying truth, might as well watch Braun sock a few more dingers.
  20. sveumrules
    Yeah, the Brewers had a higher ranked farm when Stearns & company got here, but a lot of that was guys like Brinson, Harrison, Diaz & Phillips who were dealt. Hader, Woodruff, Burnes, Williams, Peralta, Suter, Houser, Rasmussen, Hiura & Arcia have all graduated in the Stearns era & all look to be in a position to contribute to the 2021 team. Pretty much the only bad eval so far is Grisham at this point, but hopefully Urias will get a chance to make some headway on that one this year. Speaking of dark horses for 2021 how about Alec Bettinger? 157 K vs only 35 BB in 146 IP at AA as a 23 year old last time we saw him in 2019 & just checked in at #49 on the ZiPS Top 100. Before Chris Mitchell got hired by the Twins lots of Brewers showed up on his statistics based KATOH system, so I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers internal evals on Alec are higher than most public sources. Ashby also came in at #79... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/
  21. sveumrules
    Even when he was healthy from 2015-17, Walker still only started 82 games (47th), throwing 461 IP (55th) with a 100 ERA- (60th) / 104 FIP- (71st), which shook out to 4.1 runs allowed based WAR (84th) & 5.0 FIP based WAR (70th). Pretty middling results, but those were only his age 22-24 seasons & it looked like he had maybe kinda figured it out in 2017 (157 IP | 75 ERA- | 92 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.5 fWAR) before getting hurt. Seems like Taijuan's been around forever, but this deal is still only buying his age 28/29 seasons. After lost 2018/19 seasons he posted a shiny 62 ERA- in 53 IP last year but the more predictive FIP- (106) & xFIP- (108) were much less encouraging. Add it all up & ZiPS projects 100 IP of 98 ERA- (1.4 WAR) for 2021, so it looks like the break even point on the deal is probably around 3 WAR. On the one hand, Taijuan could return to or build upon his 2017 pre-injury form & put up around 300 IP / 6 WAR, positioning himself nicely to hit FA again at age 30. On the other hand, he could be hurt or ineffective & the Mets are out 20 million, no big whoop. Until the MLB financial system undergoes structural changes, certain teams will always be better positioned to take risks of this nature than others.
  22. sveumrules
    Couple other Brewers tidbits from the FanGraphs Top 100 chat yesterday... MB: Can you talk more about Ashby being the top Brewers prospect? Wasn’t expecting that. Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Turang was a fairly late cut from the list. He and Ashby were very close on the ordinal rankings. I think Turang has a shot to be a 50 based on his glove and OBP skills, but I think there’s real risk of him just getting blown away by velo at the top of the zone because of how deep those hands load, and that his “patience” may by passivity. So he fell out but you could argue him as a 50. Eric A Longenhagen: Garrett Mitchell still has his pre-draft 45+ FV grade. Basically he’s Travis Swaggerty (speed, CF, raw power, not sure if he’ll get to it in games) just several levels behind Swag. Eric A Longenhagen: Ashby was nasty in the Fall. If you put him in Milwaukee’s bullpen tomorrow, I bet he’d be awesome in a leveraged role, and he has a long-term chance to start as a strikeout-heavy five and dive type Eric A Longenhagen: and I’ll just take that guy rather than bet on Mitchell’s swing changing Keith P.: Thanks for your work, Eric. How close was Hedbert Perez to your Top 100 and do you see him as a threat to make the list next year? Eric A Longenhagen: Not that close, he’ll be a 40+ FV for me this offseason. LF only, 30 arm. Chance for hit/power combo, tho. Saw him a handful of times in the Fall and thought he was pretty interesting, just not a beast. Small & Mitchell also both listed in the Picks to Click article published today... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2022-top-100/
  23. sveumrules
    From 2017-20 the Brewers allowed the 10th fewest runs, tallied the 7th highest defensive runs saved & scored the 15th most runs, they've bern winning with pitching & defense over hitting for four years now, why would 2021 be any different? Did you consider the offense amongst the worst in the league last year? Because even with a number of players having career worst seasons, the Brewers 89 wRC+ was still closer to average than it was the worst in the league with the Pirates, Rangers & Rockies posting 73, 76 & 76 wRC+ marks. When you say the Brewers offense will probably be amongst the worst in the league you are essentially saying they will post a sub-80 wRC+, a ten percent drop from 2020. That seems pretty unlikely to me.
  24. sveumrules
    https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/guides/strategy/batting-order-sabermetrics/ 3 hole is the 4th best hitter in the lineup. That is the dumbest thing I have ever read....... So all the teams around the league that have star hitters in the 3 hole, are doing it wrong I guess. Hmmm ok then. As long as you dont lead off the pitcher & put your best hitters 7-8-9, there is no right or wrong when it comes to lineup construction. There are near infinite possibilities separated by fractions of runs so small it might net an extra couple wins over the course of 162 games.
  25. sveumrules
    ZiPS projects both Miller (96 OPS+, 0.9 WAR) & Franco (95 OPS+, 0.5 WAR) worse than Travis (102 OPS+, 1.8 WAR) for 2021. By that methodology Shaw appears to be a safest bet, though "safest bet out of three longshots" is a pretty dubious qualifier to begin with.
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