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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    For whatever it is or isn't worth, the MLB team has also had a distinctly Venezuelan flavor since Stearns & company arrived... Orlando Arcia, Manny Pina, Junior Guerra, Jesus Aguilar, Hernan Perez, Jhoulys Chacin, Omar Narvaez, Avisail Garcia.
  2. sveumrules
    Maybe we should find a new monopoly, it hasn’t produced much MLB talent. The Brewers didn't really sign anyone of note during Stearns & company's first international period in 2016, then Larry Ernesto & Carlos Rodriguez got million plus bonuses in 2017. They'll be playing their age 20 seasons in 2021. More recent notable signings like Eduardo Garcia, Hedbert Perez, Jeferson Quero & Luis Medina will all be playing their age 18 seasons in 2021. These things take time.
  3. sveumrules
    I don't think anyone is saying anyone else is right or wrong. All opinions are certainly valid, though generally the validity increases along with the amount of objective information one has to support their opinion. If someone wants to set their satisfaction threshold at "win World Series" that's their prerogative, they can do what they want to do. I don't think its an opinion though that any Brewers fan who does so is likely setting themselves up for a lifetime of dissatisfaction.
  4. sveumrules
    I really think its the NYMets gathering parts to fill future holes as they trade a package to either Colorado (for Arenado) or ChiCubs (for Kris Bryant).. Cubs trading Bryant for like JD Davis, Thomas Szapucki & a couple teenagers would be pretty satisfying.
  5. sveumrules
    If action guaranteed results, I could understand, but it doesn't so I guess don't see the point of making it the defining aspect of my fandom. People were ready to trade Cain in year two of five, Brewerfans spent the better part of a decade complaining about Braun's salary, some want to dump Yelich after 60 games because he makes money. Sure, last year's offense was bad, the other half of the team was pretty exciting though. Either way, it was 60 games in a pandemic, people are giving it way too much weight in my eyes. Just like projection systems & MLB front offices will use multiple years of data (& weight 2020 less than usual given its abbreviated nature) to set median expectations for future outcomes, so do I. Here's how I look at the results of 2020...we were lucky to have any at all. Guys were risking the lives & long term health of themselves & their family members/loved ones to play a game for my entertainment. I guess I just can't bring myself to say, "Thanks guys, but I was bored" after all that.
  6. sveumrules
    In 2017, no one expected the Brewers to compete for anything & they had the lowest payroll in baseball & just missed the playoffs by one game. But they didn't win the World Series, so who cares? Might as well have spent the whole summer watching the Tigers win 64 games with 3rd highest payroll in MLB. In 2018, the Brewers splurged. Yelich & Cain (& Wade Miley too!!). Payroll all the way up to 22nd. Fans were excited, but even then no one was predicting 5th most wins in MLB & Game 7 of the NLCS. But they didn't win tbe World Series, so what did they really accomplish? Probably would have been just as fun to spend half the year watching the Orioles win 47 games with the 10th highest payroll in MLB. In 2019, the payroll went up again (17th!!), but despite spending considerably more than in 2018, the team did not win as many games. Even so, they still made the posteseason (where they were 6 outs from knocking out the eventual WS Champs) after going on an historic September run without the reigning league MVP. They didn't win the WS though, so...BORING. Could have just watched the Mariners win 68 games with the 10th highest payroll if I wanted to watch a team NOT win the World Series. If winning the WS is the only successful outcome, 25 teams have nothing to show for the last five years. Out of those 25 teams, the Brewers have objectively been among the most interesting to follow on a day to day basis, which is all I can really ask for from an entertainment product.
  7. sveumrules
    Last year Jace took 61 of the Brewers 2,188 PAs, which comes out to about 2.8% of the team total. I'd expect him to get a similar percentage in 2021.
  8. sveumrules
    Last year didn't prove anything, it was sixty games. That is too small of a sample to draw many meaningful conclusions from. That said, in 2020 the Brewers still won the 17th most games despite only having the 23rd highest payroll. In 2019 it was 11th wins/17th payroll, in 2018 it was 5th wins/22nd payroll, in 2017 it was 10th wins/30th payroll, in 2016 it was 22nd wins/30th payroll. The Brewers have finished every season of Stearns & company's tenure ranked higher in wins than they did in payroll. If anything, there's 709 games showing that the Brewers can win despite their payroll limitations.
  9. sveumrules
    Urias hasn't hit at the MLB level, career OPS+ of 73, but context renders those results of limited utility. We're talking about 422 PAs, spread out over three years, 120 of which came post-hamate injury in a Covid weirdified season, while he was ages 21-23. Like, everybody's pretty excited about Garrett Mitchell right? He'll likely be opening in A ball as a 22 year old. Coming into 2019 Hiura ranked between #6 & #20 by BA/BPro/MLB. Urias came in between #17 & #31 on those same lists. Keston had the edge in the most important area, power, but Luis wasn't far behind in the eyes of most evaluators on account of much being better afield & not having as much swing-n-miss in his profile. Personally, I'm not ready to write off a 24 year old, who has yet to play a full MLB season & posted a 308/397/433 career minor league line with a 12.7% K rate while being around three years younger than his competition at each level. ZiPS projects Urias at 246/333/386 (90 OPS+) for 2021 & I'd like to think Luis can clear that. I'll say something like 270/350/400.
  10. sveumrules
    Robertson is still Arby's eligible, so I'd guess his contract is guranteed to the same extent as any other Arby's deal. Cut him by x-date & you only have to pay him 30 roast beefs sandwiches, cut him after x-date but before opening day & you only have to pay him 45 roast beef sandwiches. Contract does not become fully guaranteed unless he makes the OD roster.
  11. sveumrules
    Thanks for sharing, agree that the individual write ups were pretty comprehensive. Arrow is definitely starting to point up a little bit on the farm & picking 15th in each round this year should hopefully help add some more depth.
  12. sveumrules
    Robertson posted a 122 OPS+ & 3.1 WAR over 340 PAs in 2018. If he does something like that again in 2021 it would be pretty cool. He probably won't though.
  13. sveumrules
    Somebody in the Brewers FO must have been reading an oldy copy of the 2015 Baseball America prospect handbook while they were sitting on the throne.
  14. sveumrules
    Number one offense versus number one defense, doesn't get much better than that. Rams scored 372 points this year, Packers allowed 369 points, doesn't get much closer than that. Goff & Donald being banged up plus game being at Lambeau are three pretty significant factors in the Packers favor. 538 has the win probability at Packers (78%) Rams (22%) & that feels about right to me.
  15. sveumrules
    We have Hader through 2023, Woodruff/Burnes through 2024 & Williams through 2025. The 2021 season has yet to begin. The only salary we have on the books currently that far out is about 26 million in 2024 & 28 million in 2025 for Yelich/Peralta, so there should be money to retain some of them if Stearns & company want to. Woodruff is slated to enter FA for his age 32 season, so he could be motivated to sign an extension at some point. If at some point a couple two tree years from now the Brewers don't believe they can afford to retain those players in free agency, they can trade them for players who will help them be competitive even farther into the future.
  16. sveumrules
    Morrisson (28 PAs), Smoak (126 PAs) & Gyorko (135 PAs) combined for about 13% of the Brewers 2,188 PAs in 2020. Linblom (45.1 IP), Grimm (4.2 IP) & Morin (0 IP) combined for less than 10% of the Brewers 517 IP in 2020. I'd personally only classify Gyorko as a reclamation project out of those six (Morrison/Grimm/Morin were minor league depth signings, Smoak was just a blah veteran & Lindblom must have had multiple teams interested in reclaiming him since he got a multi year deal), but even if you want to count all six they still came in well under 20% on both PAs & IPs for the season.
  17. sveumrules
    Both DRS & UZR have Schwarber's arm around +12 runs since 2017, so I'd imagine he will move to RF & Soto will stay in LF barring the return of the DH.
  18. sveumrules
    With this signing, we are now up to nine teams (Mets, Padres, Royals, Dodgers, Braves, Tigers, Blue Jays, Giants & Nationals) that have signed a free agent to a contract with at least a five million AAV.
  19. sveumrules
    Me neither, I'm hoping it will be more like what they did from 1909-2014.
  20. sveumrules
    Really only wasted them if they end up losing as a result of not having them later.
  21. sveumrules
    If you thought the Darvish & Lindor returns were underwhelming, wait until you see the Bryant return.
  22. sveumrules
    Ramirez ranks 4th in WAR since the start of the 2017 season & has 3/33 left on his deal. Here's the remaining contract situations for the rest of the top dozen... Trout (10/370), Mookie (12/275), Rendon (6/215), Yelich (9/202), Bregman (4/87), Lindor (1/~20), Judge (2/~25), Arenado (6/199), Freeman (1/22), Xander (5/100), JTR (TBD) JRam projects for around 16-17 WAR over the next three years, so you're probably talking around 100 million-ish in surplus value. Offer would probably need to be Hiura, Hader, Turang & Small...and I'm still pretty sure Cleveland could do better since even the Rays could afford to bid at 3/33.
  23. sveumrules
    The projections will give very little weight to 2017 since it is 4 years out as this point. Schwarber has posted a better OPS+ than Garcia each of the last three seasons (117 vs 95 in 2018, 122 vs 112 in 2019, 88 vs 79 in 2020) so the computers are going to project him to do the same in 2020. Given how small the sample was for 2020, Statcast's expected metrics might actually have better predictive power than the actual season results & Schwarber (.225 xAVG/.444 xSLG) looked better than Garcia (.243 xAVG/.374 xSLG) there too. The other thing Schwarber has going for him is the way he gets his results, walks & power are much more consistent on a year to year basis, where Avisail is a very BABIP reliant hitter, which has larger year to year variation.
  24. sveumrules
    If this guy's stuff works so good how come the Angels pitchers are always so bad? Imagine having Mike Trout, a top seven payroll & you still can't crack the playoffs for six seasons running. Pretty embarrassing time to be an Angels fan if you ask me.
  25. sveumrules
    The most interesting angle of the Lindor trade for me will be seeing how intent he is on testing free agency. Mookie Betts had 3,629 PAs with a 134 OPS+ & 41.8 WAR heading into his age 27 walk year, it cost the Dodgers 12/365 to make sure he didn't hit the market. Nolan Arenado had 3,695 PAs with a 121 OPS+ & 30.8 WAR heading into his age 28 walk year, it cost the Rockies 8/260 to make sure he didn't hit the market. Lindor has 3,510 PAs with a 117 OPS+ & 28.7 WAR heading into his age 27 walk year. I'd guess he's gonna want at least 10/300 from Stevie C to forego FA.
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