sveumrules

The Cardinals hit a Brewers-esque 234/323/371 in the pandemic altered season. Hitting Coach Jeff Albert has been retained by St. Louis for the 2021 season.

(insert maniacal Maverick Phillips laugh here)

I won't care if Haines is retained or let go, because I don't have enough information about how he fulfills his responsibilities to have a strong position one way or another. I don't believe any message board poster is privy to that intel. The front office is full of people more intelligent than me who do have access to that information, so I will be AOK with whatever they decide.

Batting average alone is probably not the best measure, (something like wRC+ which takes into account walks, extra base hits, league offensive environment & stadium might be a little more all encompassing) but even so a six point drop in batting average from 2018 to 2019 is hardly alarming. Sure the drop from 2019 to 2020 is more concerning, but those two data sets are hardly equivalent in size (162 games versus 60 games) or circumstance (non-pandemic altered season versus pandemic altered season), to say nothing of the changing roster construction. Given there was no significant change from 2018 to 2019 (104 wRC+ to 102 wRC+) & the data incongruities from 2019 to 2020, I'd classify 2020 as more of a blip at the moment then the continuation of any trend.

People always say 1B is easy to fill, yet here we are. It's been like this since Prince left. From 2012-15 (post-Prince, pre-Stearns) our 1B posted a 90 wRC+, 29th in MLB. Outside of Adam Lind (553 PAs, 115 wRC+) & Corey Hart (416 PAs, 123 wRC+) it was pretty ugly. From 2016-19 (Stearns era, pre-COVID) our 1B posted a 119 wRC+, 9th in MLB (tied with the Rays). Sure, they were only 18th this year with a 101 wRC+ in a shortened season, but for the four full seasons before that Stearns & company filled 1B more than capably with minimal financial investment.

If Braun wants to play another year I'd imagine the Brewers will offer something like six to eight million on a one year deal. With the four million buyout that gets Braun up to around 10-12 million total.

The FanGraphs 2020 NL Central prospect round up has some interesting comments on Williams/Rasmussen/Topa/valuation of relief prospects in general... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/keeping-up-with-the-nl-centrals-prospects/

Phillies pitching coach Bryan Price is retiring. The MLBTR article mentions that the next Phillies pitching coach will be their fourth in as many years. So it kinda looks like spending money hand over fist & cycling through coaches all willy nilly doesn't really guarantee any kind of success.

Devin's career high in IP professionally was 97 back in 2016. In the three seasons since TJ he has thrown 34, 70 & 27 innings. I don't think he has the stamina built up to start, even 26 GS @ 5 IP each would be as many innings as he's thrown in the last three years combined, a 100+ IP jump from last year alone, almost double his post-TJ season high & a 33 IP increase over his career high from four years (& one UCL) ago.

Maybe that story line will get to happen in a different year. Can you imagine that next year and the Astros travel to LA? Oh man...what a heated series, would have been a bit lame in this COVID year. The storylines might not be that good for the WS but the baseball will be really good. The Rays were the best team in the AL all year and the Dodgers/Braves are clearly the best two teams in the NL. Agreed. Rays vs Dodgers would be the two best teams in 2020, two of thee very best organizations in terms of player procurement/development & has the added fun wrinkle of 28 vs 2 in terms of payroll. That said, I'll be rooting for the Braves tonight because I would prefer for the Dodgers WS winless streak to keep going & Atlanta theoretically presents a slightly easier match up for TB.

The eyes often deceive.

Yelich (112 wRC+), Hiura (87 wRC+), Garcia (81 wRC+), Narvaez (59 wRC+) & Urias (66 wRC+) all hit well below their projections in 2020 & will likely all project for significant positive regression in 2021. Having Cain for a full season should help too. That's 2/3rds of the lineup that should see notable improvement by doing nothing at all (except maybe getting a new hitting coach).

The Brewers are never taking on a contract like Arenado has. I don't think so either, thus why it would be a surprise.

Over the last two seasons, the Brewers have gotten an MLB worst 69 wRC+ & -0.1 WAR from their third basemen. Maybe the blood between Arenado & the Rockies is so bad they'd deal him for pennies on the dollar to let some other organization deal with his upcoming opportunity to opt out of the 5/164 left on his deal after 2021.

Urias is 23 years young & has 422 plate appearances spread out over parts of three seasons, with the most recent 120 PA chunk happening during a pandemic shortened season when he was coming off a broken hamate & contracting the very virus that altered the entire season (& life in general). Sure, his 226/315/320 (77 OPS+) career MLB line won't knock your socks off or make you quiver with excitement to your very core, but when you consider it's only 422 PAs spread out over parts of his age 21-23 seasons & the average 23 year old is still in A+ ball & he has a career minor league line of 308/397/433 with a 12.7 K% in 2400 PAs all while being around 3-4 years young for his level at each stop & I agree...the jury is definitely still out, just like it would be for any other 23 year old who had yet to play a full MLB season.

Getting Cain back next year should help the defense. Andrelton Simmons defensive metrics have slipped some, but as someone who might have to settle for a one year deal & is competent with the stick (97 wRC+, MLB low 8.4 K% from 2018-20), I could see Stearns & company having possible interest.

Gamel 2018-20: 255/344/377 (95 wRC+) 26.4 K% (-1.3 BsR) Profar 2018-20: 243/323/434 (101 wRC+) 14.5 K% (+8.5 BsR) For me the switch hitting, positional versatility, contact ability & superior baserunning are worth an extra 6-7 million. When you're a cash strapped team you can't afford the extra $6-7M luxury. Yes Profar offers a little more than Gamel, but not enough to justify the money on a team looking to cut payroll. Cash strapped as they are, the Brewers will still probably sign a couple two tree free agents this offseason. Given Stearns & company's affinity for flexibility, the possibility Profar still has some upside as a former top prospect hitting FA at a relatively young age & the likelihood he won't break the bank, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Jurickson ends up being one of them.

Who would you rather have, Ben Gamel for 2 mllion or Profar for at least 8 million? Gamel 2018-20: 255/344/377 (95 wRC+) 26.4 K% (-1.3 BsR) Profar 2018-20: 243/323/434 (101 wRC+) 14.5 K% (+8.5 BsR) For me the switch hitting, positional versatility, contact ability & superior baserunning are worth an extra 6-7 million.

Doesn't look like Renteria has ever been a hitting coach at the MLB level. Was a first base/bench coach before getting his manager gigs.

That's cool, love stuff like that. Reminds me of JD Martinez, Miles Mikolas & Mike Fiers all getting drafted out of Nova Southeastern back in 2009. Those three have around 225 million in career earnings/future gurantees, Nova Southeastern only has a 170 million endowment.

With the postseason nearing an end & the offseason about to get started, now seems like as good a time as any to see how the Brewers have fared in the half decade since Stearns & company took the reigns. No front office is perfect & gets every evaluation correct, so all you can really do is tally up the good against the bad & see how it compares to the rest of the league. The best shorthand measurement I can think of for that would be team wins.... 2016-20 WINS: 01 LAD (436) 02 HOU (424) 03 CLE (415) 04 NYY (411) 05 CHC (408) 06 BOS (402) 07 WAS (393) 08 STL (378) 09 TBR (374) 10 OAK (374) 11 MIL (373) 12 ATL (362) 13 MIN (359) 14 ARI (354) 15 COL (350) 16 SEA (348) 17 NYM (346) 18 TEX (340) 19 TOR (337) 20 LAA (332) 21 SFG (330) 22 PHI (326) 23 PIT (323) 24 CHW (314) 25 SDP (312) 26 CIN (309) 27 MIA (307) 28 KCR (304) 29 BAL (290) 30 DET (284) The 11th most wins in MLB, only one fewer than model small market franchises Tampa Bay & Oakland, not too bad. Now of course, not all franchises are created equally. Certain teams have considerable budgetary advantages over others... 2016-20 PAYROLL in MILLION$: 01 LAD (994.9) 02 NYY (949.7) 03 BOS (922.5) 04 CHC (860.5) 05 SFG (820.8) 06 WAS (793.6) 07 LAA (760.4) 08 STL (723.1) 09 DET (683.6) 10 TEX (677.6) 11 NYM (676.9) 12 SEA (665.7) 13 HOU (648.3) 14 TOR (647.6) 15 COL (605.8) 16 BAL (563.0) 17 KCR (559.8) 18 PHI (558.9) 19 ATL (552.1) 20 CLE (541.9) 21 MIN (520.0) 22 ARI (503.0) 23 CIN (483.9) 24 SDP (439.1) 25 CHW (431.3) 26 MIL (413.7) 27 MIA (405.8) 28 PIT (388.4) 29 OAK (373.5) 30 TBR (315.8) *for payroll I used Cots year end 40 man totals from 2016-19 & prorated opening day for 2020 since they don't have the year end figures posted yet* Since Stearns & company arrived there are 25 teams that have spent more money on payroll than the Brewers, but only 8 of those teams have won more games than the Brewers. Of the 17 teams that spent more to win less, 13 made zero or one postseason appearance compared to the Brewers three. Put it all together & the Brewers have predictably been one of the most fiscally efficient teams in MLB under Stearns & company... 2016-20 MILLION$ per WIN: 01 TBR (0.84) 02 OAK (1.00) 03 MIL (1.11) 04 PIT (1.20) 05 CLE (1.31) 06 MIA (1.32) 07 CHW (1.37) 08 SDP (1.41) 09 ARI (1.42) 10 MIN (1.45) 11 ATL (1.53) 12 HOU (1.53) 13 CIN (1.57) 14 PHI (1.71) 15 COL (1.73) 16 KCR (1.84) 17 SEA (1.91) 18 STL (1.91) 19 TOR (1.92) 20 BAL (1.94) 21 NYM (1.96) 22 TEX (1.99) 23 WAS (2.02) 24 CHC (2.11) 25 LAD (2.28) 26 LAA (2.29) 27 BOS (2.29) 28 NYY (2.31) 29 DET (2.41) 30 SFG (2.49) Now of course there are no dollar per win trophies, banners or parades. But at the same time the economic realities of MLB are the economic realities of MLB & until there is some structural change to those realities, whoever is in charge of the Brewers will have to spend wisely & maintain some degree of future flexibilty if they hope to have sustained success. Much like I would expect Christian Yelich's 2021 OPS+ to be closer to the 149 mark he posted from 2016-19 than the 111 mark he posted in 2020, one year of mediocre results from Stearns & company in a pandemic shortened & altered season doesn't cause me much concern considering the totality of their results.

Right. 60 games is about 37% of a regular 162 game season. Considering the abnormal nature of the season I would give them even less credence than that, so maybe around 25-30% of the stock I would put into typical full season results.

A pandemic shortened season?

When the Brewers acquired Urias he was 22 with 300 MLB plate appearances...no one is a finished product at age 22 with 300 plate appearances, so I don't see why the Brewers would have viewed him as one. You keep mentioning that he couldn't beat our Arcia, when did this competition occur?

He's 23 and has played in 124 games. He could be 20 and have played in 300 games, it’s irrelevant. When you trade away talent from your major league roster to acquire a player, and he subsequently can’t beat out the player he was specifically brought in to replace, I don’t know what else to call it besides a flop. I’ll grant you maybe it’s the 2020 season, but so far Urias has done nothing but legitimize the questions about his ability to hit in the majors. When did Urias have a chance to beat out Arcia? He broke his hamate bone before spring training, then contracted COVID before the restart & by the time he joined the team a quarter of the way through the season Arcia was one of the only guys actually hitting with a .276 average.