.jpg.cc012630838b9a00fd2a2371995d5f38.jpg)
sveumrules
-
Posts
10,922 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
213
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Blogs
Events
Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings
Milwaukee Brewers Videos
2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors
Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources
2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project
2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by sveumrules
-
Trade Deadline Rant- How are we better?
sveumrules replied to rickh150's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Mets traded for Cano/Diaz & let Alonso mash from day one, the Phillies signed Harper/McCutchen & traded for JT/Segura, the Braves signed Donaldson, the Nationals signed Corbin, the Cardinals traded for Goldschmidt, the Padres signed Machado & let Tatis mash from day one. All kinds of NL teams made moves in an attempt to make themselves more competitively viable, but with only five playoff spots not all if them were going to be playoff bound, no matter what signals certain fans received. Before the season the Dodgers were the only team seen as a lock, which left four spots open for WAS, ATL, PHI, NYM, CHI, STL, MIL & any dark horses that might emerge from the remaining non-MIA teams. With the number of teams competing for limited spots the most likely outcome for our season was always going to be a 162 game coin flip & here we are now living out that most likely outcome, spinning round & round in the air. -
Trade Deadline Rant- How are we better?
sveumrules replied to rickh150's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Depth at 1B is all around us. We got Aguilar for free, Garrett Cooper was traded for a song (twice!!) & so on. -
3. Maybe 4. We are 7-6 in the games Yelich didn't start this season.
-
The one time Hader pitched 3 straight days, he had thrown 18 pitches combined in the two previous games. He threw 28 pitches last night.
-
It will go in the record book as one win. Same as the A's get for beating the Cubs 11-2.
-
Grandal ranks 2nd or 3rd in all available framing metrics. Yasmani's wRC+ is 35 points higher than Pina's, that is more than slightly better.
-
01. Trent Grisham 02. Brice Turang 03. Aaron Ashby 04. Clayton Andrews 05. Ethan Small 06. Tristen Lutz 07. Drew Rasmussen 08. Eduardo Garcia 09. Mario Feliciano 10. Trey Supak 11. Troy Stokes Jr. 12. Corey Ray 13. Zack Brown 14. Jacob Nottingham 15. Alec Bettinger 16. Max Lazar 17. Dylan File 18. Noah Zavolas 19. Devin Williams 20. Antoine Kelly 21. Lucas Erceg 22. Payton Henry 23. Micah Bello 24. Carlos Rodriguez 25. Joe Gray Jr.
-
According to FanGraphs Christian is only behind Trout, they've got him tied with Bellinger. Their PAs are essentially equal (465 vs 470), their wRC+ are essentially equal (180 vs 178), Yelich has the edge in baserunning (+4.4 vs -0.3) while Cody has the edge in fielding (+7.5 vs +2.2 UZR). BRef is essentially the same, but they use DRS for fielding which has Bellinger +17, so that accounts for the 1 WAR edge he currently has over Christian there.
-
Diaz & Hiura are both 2B only guys. I'll take Keston, though there is a non zero chance Isan ends up the better player in the long run.
-
Against RH this year - 3040 PA - 394 Runs - .129 runs per PA Against LH this year - 1238 PA - 137 Runs - .111 4278 PA this year in 110 games - 38.89 PA per game 38.89 * .129 = 5.0 runs per plate appearances worth of game vs RH 38.89 * .111 = 4.3 runs per plate appearances worth of games vs LH Does this not seem like a pretty decent difference without potentially making it worse having by having Shaw off the bench instead of Perez or Aguilar? The offense vs lefties can be propped up by various rate stats but the black holes keep them from scoring runs at a rate of .7 runs per game. Over a large enough sample, equal OPS marks should result in similar runs being scored. That difference of .7 runs per game could be the result of black holes (which Aguilar & Saladino were & no one in our lineup today is) or it could be the result of sequencing, random variation, luck or any other number of factors (especially considering LH splits are always noisier because the sample is naturally smaller than RH splits). Either way, we are 17-16 against LH starters this year, so even if we do score slightly less runs than expected based on out OPS mark against LHP, it hasn't really manifested itself in terms of wins/losses (& we certainly aren't "basically helpless" as OP suggested).
-
What about pinch hit options later on for the pitcher against a lefty out of the pen?? How does that look?? The majority of the plate appearance n the game will (likely) come against the starter, I'd plan for that ahead of one or two plate appearances that may or may not occur later on.
-
If we're using samples as small as 20 at bats anything can be "proven". If anything, you are highlighting another poor roster choice, not putting on a defense of it. Perez's spot is now filled by Shaw. Aguilar's spot is filled by a lefty outfielder. Do either of these guys project to ultimately do better vs lefties? I didn't realize protections going forward were based off so few at bats. Our position players have 1178 PAs vs LHP this year. The 8 players in our starting lineup have accounted for 849 of those PAs, or 71.8%. Jesus & Saladino accounted (very poorly) for 114 of them, or about 9.8%. The larger sample indicates our lineup today is at no disadvantage against a LHP.
-
If that is the complaint, it is flawed to begin with. Aguilar had a 63 wRC+ against LHP this year, should be easily replaced. & I guess I'm missing the 2nd right handed bat we lost. (EDIT, oh I see it now, Saladino, he of the 6 wRC+ vs LHP.) The only lefty on bulldogboys list in the lineup tonight is Moose & he has a 119 wRC+ vs LHP this year.
-
OPS vs RHP: .774 OPS vs LHP: .766 I guess we are basically hopeless against everyone. does anyone know what our record is against lefties and righties. Ive noticed a lot of people have complained a lot about us facing lefties but just from the top of my head it doesn't seem to be that big of a deal this year. 17-16 vs LH starter 40-37 vs RH starter Like most things people complain about, it isn't that big of a deal.
-
If one's expectations were based on preseason projections, they have played within that range to this point... BPro: 88 wins Vegas: 86.5 wins 538: 86 wins ZIPS: 85 wins Current Pace: 84 wins OOTP: 83 wins Expecting 90+ wins & an easy cruise to the postseason was always an unlikely outcome in an increasingly competitive NL. I expected a back & forth dog fight for the NL Central title/possible Wild Card that would need 162 games (or maybe even more, again) to settle & that is exactly what we've gotten.
-
OPS vs RHP: .774 OPS vs LHP: .766 I guess we are basically hopeless against everyone.
-
Run differential is one estimator, but runs scored/allowed are subject to the whims of chance, also known as sequencing (or, luck). By this calculation we have four more wins than we "should" have. An even more granular (some might even say precise) version of estimating wins & loses is BaseRuns, which takes the weighted run value of every single outcome that occurs & projects runs scored/allowed from there (in an attempt to eliminate the whims of chance somewhat). By this calculation we have played to our exact current record. Keep looking to cherry pick stats. At this point the Brewers are what they are. This team is average at best. They may indeed be average at best. Luckily a couple two tree average teams will make the NL playoffs this year.
-
Last year it took until August 18th before a poster was questioning if we had Hope For The Future? viewtopic.php?f=63&t=37418 Narrator: They Did.
-
Run differential is one estimator, but runs scored/allowed are subject to the whims of chance, also known as sequencing (or, luck). By this calculation we have four more wins than we "should" have. An even more granular (some might even say precise) version of estimating wins & loses is BaseRuns, which takes the weighted run value of every single outcome that occurs & projects runs scored/allowed from there (in an attempt to eliminate the whims of chance somewhat). By this calculation we have played to our exact current record.
-
Cole Hamels to start Saturday vs the Brewers
sveumrules replied to Brewcrewin07's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Coming into the season the most likely scenario was that one of CHI, MIL or STL would win the division & one of the other two might get a Wild Card as all three teams were relatively evenly matched & the NL as a whole looked more competitive than in 2018. Now, four months into the season it looks like one of CHI, MIL or STL will win the division & one of the other two might get a Wild Card. None of CHI, MIL or STL had better than 50% postseason odds before the season, so whichever of them doesn't make the playoffs won't be a big disappointment, they will have just fulfilled what was their most likely outcome all along. -
While techically true, we are 3-1 vs ARI, 5-4 vs CHI, 5-1 vs NYM, 4-3 vs PHI & 3-0 vs WAS, so we really haven't played losing baseball against everyone else. Why didn't you frame it by saying we are 10 games over .500 against everyone except the Padres & Angels? That is just as much of a fact. Arguments like this really makes me second guess if the internet is something society really needed. I know, right? If you can't refute the argument itself, the medium it was delivered upon must be a fruitless endeavor.
-
While techically true, we are 3-1 vs ARI, 5-4 vs CHI, 5-1 vs NYM, 4-3 vs PHI & 3-0 vs WAS, so we really haven't played losing baseball against everyone else. Why didn't you frame it by saying we are 10 games over .500 against everyone except the Padres & Angels? That is just as much of a fact.
-
I'll say no, unless he really likes it.
-
I can believe he said it & I can believe people bought it before seeing the actual deal. That is the whole point of playing people's emotions for internet clicks.
