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sveumrules
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Everything posted by sveumrules
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Since 2003 Mike Trout has 73.5 WAR, second only to Albert Pujols (75.5), who he will likely pass by the end of the season. Which means Mike Trout has been the best player in baseball since his age 11 season.
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C: Pina, Nottingham, Fritos IF: Thames, Keston, Shaw, Arcia, Hernan OF: Braun, Cain, Yelich, Grisham, Gamel P: Woody, Chase, Davies, Houser, Hader, Knebel, Claudio, Suter, Freddy, Corbin, Devin, Black, Jimmy I've got those 26 guys coming around 100 million, which would leave us about 30 million to spend on some combination of pitchers & maybe an upgrade at C, SS &/or 3B. I don't think Stearns will trade any of the top couple two tree prospects given the overall state of the system, so probably no big ticket trades, but there is still plenty of ammo to probably get a solid reliever or utility guy or maybe an expensive vet SP a rebuilder is looking to offload to clear salary.
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It's not ironic at all. There is very minimal year to year correlation between RISP/clutch stats. -
They were earned runs, so Chris Hook is actually to blame.
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Thanks again as always for doing the legwork on this & putting it all together, reilly. If I had to pick two guys in the top 10 that are most likely to be dealt this offseason for MLB help, I would say Supak & Lutz.
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What is the correlation between this year's results versus last year's results? The thing with situational hitting is it is mostly noise. On June 12th our wRC+ with RISP was at 112, 8th best in MLB. Turned out that wasn't predictive of our next two months, which luckily means these last two months likely aren't very predictive for the rest of the season. Even a great hitter like Braun, who has the 5th highest RBI% (min. 2,000 runners on) & 12th highest wRC+ with RISP (min. 1,000 PAs) since his debut in 2007 has pretty big year to year swings if you look at his yearly OPS splits with RISP... 990 (-128) 862 (+109) 971 (-123) 848 (+201) 1049 (-88) 961 (-43) 918 (-65) 853 (+204) 1057 (+31) 1088 (-400) 688 (+227) 915 (+2) 917 Add it all up & one of the best run producers of the last decade plus has an average yearly swing of 135 points of OPS w/RISP.
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If a pitcher threw 55% change ups & 45% fastballs...would his fastball be his change up?
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I'm guessing this is very skewed by his excellent 2017. He was basically an ace that year. Most of those guys are skewed by one excellent season... Chase (4.39, 2.74, 3.93, 3.78) hi/lo range 1.65 Bauer (4.26, 4.19, 2.21, 4.12) hi/lo range 2.05 Hamels (3.32, 4.20, 3.78, 3.69) hi/lo range 0.82 Paxton (3.79, 2.98, 3.76, 4.53) hi/lo range 1.55 Arrieta (3.10, 3.53, 3.96, 4.64) hi/lo range 1.54
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Since Chase became a Brewer there are 105 pitchers in MLB with at least 400 IP. His 3.73 ERA ranks 29th in the sample. The four guys closest to him on that list; Trevor Bauer, Cole Hamels, James Paxton & Jake Arrieta, make considerably more than 8.5 million.
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After last night/this morning I am fully expecting a 1-0 game.
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Haha, I noticed that too. Zonked.
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Even after his 5 IP rough patch, Hader is still 12th in WAR & 11th in Win Probability Added. I guess if every reliever outside the top 10 is terrible, sure. I'm also only seeing 5 losses/blown saves (though I guess there is still time tonight)... http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/leaders.asp?lg=mlb&cat=161
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Is Yelich still hurt?
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Our position players already have the 3rd highest BB% in MLB at 9.6%, only HOU (9.7%) & LAD (9.9%) are higher.
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Last year our position players had a 104 wRC+, this year it is 101. On the whole they've been about 3% worse. Last year our pitchers had a 97 FIP-, this year it is 100. On the whole they've also been about 3% worse. Even if that whole 3% decline was somehow entirely attributable to coaching (& not other things like personnel changes, regular year to year variation, etc) it would hardly qualify as a debacle.
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They may be one of the worst over the last 10 years with RISP. Even last year the Brewers weren't good. Oddly enough 2015 was the last time Milwaukee was above average with RISP. Last year our position players had a 104 wRC+ with RISP, 14th in MLB. Over the last 10 years it is 102, 15th in MLB.
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It fluctuates quite a bit year to year, meaning it is mostly luck... http://research.sabr.org/journals/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting Batting average is also only one component, not making outs (OBP) & getting extra base hits (SLG) are also important. By wRC+ (which accounts for all those things) with RISP the Cardinals (97), Brewers (96) & Phillies (95) are the bottom three teams in the league. The Reds, Padres & Pirates all have a 113 wRC+ with RISP, trailing only LA & WAS in the NL, but it hasn't really helped them win any more games.
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Gio is the same as last year. Davies has been better. Peralta may have found something in the bullpen. Before his last 5 IP Hader was the exact same guy. How is Houser worse now than last year? Chacin was always a regression candidate coming off a career high workload, Jeffress was also an obvious regression candidate coming off an unsustainably low ERA & many thinking he looked cooked in the postseason then surprise he dealt with injury in Spring Training. Hard for me to blame Hook for either of them.
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Preseason projected wins... BPro: 88 wins Vegas: 86.5 wins 538: 86 wins ZIPS: 85 wins Current Pace: 84 wins OOTP: 83 wins With 40 games to go this team is playing right within the range of its most likely outcomes, hard for me to say that Stearns did a terrible job, especially with a quarter of the season as of yet unplayed.
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Monthly wRC+ splits are 98 (April), 104 (May), 105 (June), 101 (July), 90 (August) Aguilar & Shaw were slumping much longer in the first half, we didn't have Hiura or Grisham then & we were fine. The only thing that's really different now is the Yelich situation. Grandal has a 99 wRC+ over the last six weeks (0705-0816), Moose is at 71. I don't believe their recent struggles are indicative of a change in true talent level & would expect their production the rest of the year to end up closer to their projections (115 Yaz, 110 Moose) than what they've done the last six weeks.
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The offense is not bad or terrible. Our position players have a 101 wRC+, 15th in MLB. We are +6.0 on the bases, 10th in MLB.
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The Nationals bullpen is worse than ours & will throw more innings in this game than ours will.
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The ball was smoked directly at Soto. If Windmill Eddie actually gives a guy the stop sign, you know he had no chance to score.
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Braun with the right idea...TAKE. Think Keston & Yelich swung at six balls.
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Orlando hit that pretty Farcia. Also, yo Adrian!
