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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Bell + Marte + Vazquez = 9 WAR.
  2. sveumrules
    Barnes - Burnes? Nice. Wonder if they ever followed each other in a game last season. Going through their game logs it looks like the pitched back to back three times earlier this year; May 14, May 17 & June 11.
  3. sveumrules
    Barnes - Burnes?
  4. sveumrules
    It's almost like all the smart contending teams that needed bullpen help didn't think the red flags justified the price tag. Glad it was the Cubs who ended up being the most desperate.
  5. sveumrules
    Current Wins: 84 Preseason Projected Wins... ZIPS: 85 538: 86 BPro: 88 BF.net: 91 Getting there.
  6. sveumrules
    On 09/01 we were 70-66 & FanGraphs had our postseason odds at 12.8%. Of course going 14-4 since then will dramatically increase a team's playoff odds, that's just how math works. The average error bar on projections is around 5-7 wins. Exceeding (or falling short) of a projection by 10+ games is not that uncommon, especially for teams with young players, strong defense & good bullpens, all of which ate more difficult to project & which the Brewers featured heavily in 2016-18 when they outperformed their projections by 10+ games each season. This article by Jeff Sullivan, who has since been hired by the Rays, does an excellent job of breaking down just how useful/limited projections can be... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-make-sure-were-honest-about-projections/
  7. sveumrules
    We beat the Nationals 5-3 when we faced Max earlier in the year. Yelich was 1 for 4 with a single & walk, but we still had Shaw/Aguilar starting so that kind of cancels it out. Plus Chacin pitched for us. Anything can happen.
  8. sveumrules
    We outscored the Dodgers 24-23 last year in the NLCS. So much for run differential.
  9. sveumrules
    Chase has done a pretty good job of making them solo shots during his time with the Brewers... Bases Empty: 1.76 HR/9 Runners On: 1.06 HR/9
  10. sveumrules
    We've faced Brault four times this year. He has pitched 20.1 innings with a 2.66 ERA. We won all four games.
  11. sveumrules
    I think bWAR, which uses DRS for its fielding input, might do a better job capturing Cain's value. Last two years... fWAR (6.8) UZR (+16.8) bWAR (9.0) DRS (+39) StatCast's Outs Above Average has him +35 the last two years, more in line with DRS.
  12. sveumrules
    On September 5th, after 139 games, the Brewers were 71-68, an 82.75 win pace over 162 games. Two weeks later we have already won our 83rd game with nine more still to be played.
  13. sveumrules
    If you knew all this would happen why did you want to fire Stearns for not selling high on Yelich & Hader at the deadline?
  14. sveumrules
    I'm sure that is because much of their forecasts are based on run differential. That and Fangraphs sucks. 538 & BPro have us finishing 7-6. BRef, like FanGraphs, has us finishig 6.5-6.5. I guess all the projection systems suck?
  15. sveumrules
    I wonder what the confidence intervals are on these projections, but, yeah, I agree with nearly all of this. The odds give us a nice range of expectations. If someone told me we had a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs, I'd think they were overconfident. 25 would seem too low. Just about anything in between about 30 and 60 feels pretty defensible to me, and at that point, who cares, right? Let's play and hopefully win! Bingo. Current postseason odds at... 538: 48% BPro: 47.7% BRef: 38.9% FanGraphs: 36.1% Stearns also hired August Fagerstrom from FG back in November 2016 & he has worked his way up to Coordinator of Player Personnel since then & we also had a habit of acquiring guys who ranked highly on Chris Mitchell's KATOH prospect ratings published on FG before he was also hired by an MLB team, so clearly it is something our front office gives some amount of credence to, though I'd imagine they almost certainly have their own proprietary metrics & projections systems which they utilize over publicly available ones.
  16. sveumrules
    ERA & runs are one way to measure performance. But they are really more of a team stat since they include both defense & sequencing, which can have a sigficant impact. FIP isolates the elements a pitcher exerts the most control over (Ks, BBs, HRs). In both 2017 & 2018 our FIP was 3% better than league average. Before tonight it was 1% worse than keague average. By this measure our pitchers (not our defense or sequencing) have been about 4% worse than the previous two seasons. I don't believe that is enough to get anyone fired.
  17. sveumrules
    I think run differential is the same as most stats, useful but with limitations. Teams with the best RDs win the most games & teams with the worst RDs lose the most, but it's a lot noisier in the middle, where we are. One of the limitations is that we know run scoring/prevention is not something a team completely controls. It is heavily dependent upon sequencing, which involves a good deal of randomness, so is sometimes referred to as luck. BaseRuns strips out the sequencing element by using the weighted run value of each individual outcome throughout a season to extrapolate how many runs a team "should" have scored/allowed & then converts those totals to W/L. BaseRuns has us at 76-72 currently, much closer to our actual 79-69 record than Run Differential, which has us at 71-77.
  18. sveumrules
    Disagree. I believe we will need to allow fewer runs than our opponent to have any real chance at the postseason.
  19. sveumrules
    +10 win differential.
  20. sveumrules
    You ever been to a funeral & the body starts crawling out of the casket?
  21. sveumrules
    Still awake, so I don't think I'm dreaming & it appears as though the Brewers are currently tied for WC2. Not too shabby for a team that was eulogized seven weeks ago.
  22. sveumrules
    Could wake up tomorrow tied for WC2.
  23. sveumrules
    I believe Black is our designated "wet guy"... https://deadspin.com/every-baseball-team-has-a-wet-guy-now-1837481219
  24. sveumrules
    Welcome back to the board, FTF. As a great example of how tiny Milwaukee/the internet really is, my band actually opened that Castle Comer show. Hope we didn't suck
  25. sveumrules
    Sounds kinda like a used car salesman, but on steroids.
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