Jump to content
Brewer Fanatic

sveumrules

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,922

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    213

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Where is the upside? 5.73 FIP this year, 5.08 last year. Walks a ton of guys and isn't anywhere close to being a closer. Another hugely under-whelming move by Stearns. It's almost like he pitched over half of his career innings in 2016 with pretty decent results (80 ERA-/97 FIP-). Is there a reason you're intentionally leaving that out?
  2. sveumrules
    It would appear as though Dubon has more trade value to the Giants than Arcia.
  3. sveumrules
    Another deal for a small upgrade around the margins that didn't require us to deal any of our few remaining top end prospects? I am completely whelmed.
  4. sveumrules
    Grandal career: 118 wRC+ Grandal 2019: 124 wRC+ Pina career: 90 wRC+ Pina 2019: 88 wRC+ I'd say Yaz being 30-35% better than Manny at the plate is more than just a bit. Is Pina a better defender? Possibly, it depends on how much weight one puts on framing where Grandal has consistently graded out as elite. Even if Manny is a better defender, is it enough to make up for being 30-35% worse at the plate? I don't believe so.
  5. sveumrules
    I tend to think Dubon has slightly more value. He is cheaper, with more control & hasn't already proven to be among the worst position players in MLB over the last couple two tree seasons.
  6. sveumrules
    Both Statcast & BPro have Grandal 2nd in MLB in framing runs. Catcher ERA is extremely noisy (especially when one guy has 3.5x times more innings than the other), but here are Yasmani & his other guy's Catcher ERAs with the Dodgers... 2015: Yaz 3.35 | Ellis 3.37 2016: Yaz 3.72 | Ellis 3.28 2017: Yaz 3.22 | Barnes 3.74 2018: Yaz 3.37 | Barnes 3.35 Maybe Grandal just got bad at game calling this year or maybe like OSS said above, our pitchers just aren't very good.
  7. sveumrules
    Since 2017... Bauer | 10.66 K9 | 11.4 fWAR | 10.8 bWAR Stroman | 7.15 K9 | 7.5 fWAR | 8.7 bWAR It's almost like Stroman is a worse pitcher than Bauer so his trade return should naturally be less.
  8. sveumrules
    Jordan Lyles?
  9. sveumrules
    I'm confused here. Are you actually insinuating that Stearns would run the team better if he made moves based on what the fans think? If so, what is your tolerance for 40 win seasons? Trying to please someone who considers Ben Sheets & Rickie Weeks as All Time Franchise Busts is a fool's errand.
  10. sveumrules
    Both Statcast & BPro have Grandal 2nd in MLB in framing runs. Catcher ERA is extremely noisy (especially in when one guy has 3.5x times more innings than the other), but here are Yasmani & his other guy's Catcher ERAs with the Dodgers... 2015: Yaz 3.35 | Ellis 3.37 2016: Yaz 3.72 | Ellis 3.28 2017: Yaz 3.22 | Barnes 3.74 2018: Yaz 3.37 | Barnes 3.35 Calling the game is also a collaboratve prcess. I would imagine the analytic/scouting staffs confer with CC/Hook to come up with a strategy for the opposing team each series & it is then up to the catcher & pitcher to execute that game plan.
  11. sveumrules
    Maybe, maybe not. There is no way to know what other offers were made. Maybe Stearns made that exact offer & Toronto preferred the Mets prospects.
  12. sveumrules
    Archer was actually 3.5 years, assuming PIT picks up the 9/11 million options for 2020/21.
  13. sveumrules
    Wouldn't be prudent!
  14. sveumrules
    Most? Gimme one... please. Not being rude, but I never heard of this. Most MLB managers put their best hitters at #2 or #3. There are numerous links within the Grantland article above, but this one probably does the best job breaking it down... https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by
  15. sveumrules
    What do those analysis' say about batting the pitcher 8th? I'm surprised we just seemed to abandon that. It appears as though batting the pitcher 8th only yields a minimal advantage over the course of a season & only then if you have the right personnel. This Ben Lindbergh article is a few years old, but it covers the main points & even has some quotes from former Brewers front office guy Tony Blengino... https://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-national-league-batting-order-starting-pitchers-eighth-chicago-cubs/ From what I can tell the Brewers hit the pitcher 8th fourteen times this year going 8-6 with an average of 4.5 runs per game versus an average of 4.9 runs per game in all other games (though that also includes interleague/DH games). My best guess is they tried it for a little to see if it would maybe jumpstart the offense & when that didn't happen they just went back to the status quo.
  16. sveumrules
    Most lineup analysis indicates your best hitter should be second with your second best hitter fourth. I think clean up is the ideal spot for Hiura at the moment.
  17. sveumrules
    From 2016 through now there have been 100 pitchers who have thrown at least 400 innings. Over that time Chase's FIP- of 108 ranks 81st (in the same neighborhood as Clayton Richard, Anibal Sanchez, Marco Estrada), while his ERA- of 88 ranks 31st (in the same neighborhood as Patrick Corbin, James Paxton, Jake Arrieta). His ERA of 3.74 has outpaced his FIP of 4.59 by 0.85 runs, the largest margin in the sample. For whatever reasons certain pitchers are able to consistently outperform their peripherals & I think the sample is large enough that Chase has shown he is one of those guys. Most of this appears to be the result of him allowing a .298 wOBA with runners on base (in the same neighborhood as Gerritt Cole, MadBum, Carlos Carrasco) compared to a .325 wOBA with the bases empty (in the same neighborhood as Jason Vargas, Trevor Cahill, Dan Straily). If he's healthy the option seems like a no brainer.
  18. sveumrules
    I mean, don't get me wrong, I understand the appeal, he just doesn't really move the needle that much IMO. Better than Chacin?? Absolutely. Solid?? Sure, but not a major needle mover. I'd be fine with him as a fill in for Chacin the rest of the year, but not as their biggest piece. Not all deadlines are created equal & this year there just aren't that many true needle movers on the market. Given other teams have more resources to offer, I don't see us getting one of the few available. At the same time, given our rotation situation Roark moves the needle from replacement level to MLB average, which is considerable & also allows Houser to maybe stay in the pen as an added bonus. I'll say the same thing I said three weeks ago...my best guess is Stearns & company will do the same thing they did last deadline & deal prospects they view as superfluous for minor upgrades around the margins.
  19. sveumrules
    I fully expected the Brewer not to score because they are the Brewers and they excel at failing in those situations. According to the splits on BRef the Brewers batters are... 18% better than average in the 8th inning (480 PAs) 15% better than average when behind (1,524 PAs) 15% better than average with 2 outs & RISP (482 PAs) 5% better than average in "late/close" situations (671 PAs) 5% better than average with men on base (1,737 PAs) They have been 26% worse than league average in 119 PAs with the bases loaded & 22% worse than average in 196 PAs with a runner on 3rd/less than 2 outs, so maybe that is what sticks in people's heads, but the larger samples indicate they have been above average in most of the situations present when we took the lead last night.
  20. sveumrules
    Yeah, bummer for Tulo, even though it was a long time coming. Braun still sitting atop the 2005 1st rounders with 47.2 WAR followed by Tulo (44.2), McCutchen (43.7), Zimmerman (37.8), Gordon (36.7), Upton (35.4) & Ellsbury (31.4) before dropping down to Jay Bruce at 20.4 WAR. What's interesting to me is who ends up as the best SS of the 2010s... Tulo | 3576 PAs | 125 wRC+ | +64 DEF | 27.8 WAR Lindor | 2970 PAs | 120 wRC+ | +73 DEF | 25.8 WAR Andrus | 6184 PAs | 88 wRC+ | +77 DEF | 25.7 WAR Andrelton | 4011 PAs | 92 wRC+ | +150 DEF | 24.7 WAR Obviously the last three still have two months to add to their tallies, but I think Lindor ultimately gets the nod. Also pretty nuts to see how far ahead of three Gold Glove quality shortstops that Andrelton's defensive metrics are.
  21. sveumrules
    Man, you were on fire until you forgot it was the Japanese, not the Germans... I learned all my history (& motivational speaking) from Belushi in Animal House.
  22. sveumrules
    Davies, Anderson & Gio are all competent starters. Hader, Houser, Peralta & Jeffress (90 ERA-/84 FIP-) are all competent relievers. The pitching situation is far less dire than some are painting it. Losing Woodruff sucks, no doubt, but it's hardly a death knell as this team was never going to win on the backs of their pitching, they were built to score more runs than the other team. Go win 2 of 3 against the Cubs (I'd also take a sweep), deal for a starter & a reliever, then play two months of baseball (wherein anything can happen) & see what happens. It wasn't over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor & it isn't over now.
  23. sveumrules
    Having the DH as an option likely would have prevented us from losing one (or maybe even more) of the "ones that got away" over the last few seasons.
  24. sveumrules
    So what you're saying is we're overdue for positive regression to the mean?
  25. sveumrules
    Has he responded to your tweet? Yes, he responded with a picture of himself wearing red & white checkered overalls, just like Big Boy wears.
×
×
  • Create New...