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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Projections typically struggle the most with young players (less of a track record to draw from) & defense/relief pitching (higher year to year variation). Teams who are counting on a lot of value coming from those particular areas will generally be under-projected.
  2. sveumrules
    Are there any of the other teams who won their division in 2018 projected to not win their division in 2019? The projections hosted at FanGraphs currently have the Braves at 82 wins, 10 wins behind the Nationals & 3 wins behind the Mets.
  3. sveumrules
    FanGraphs list for the Orioles is up today with former Brewers Jean Carmona & Luis Ortiz checking in at #29 & #31, respectively. Seems like Ortiz has really tumbled down the rankings since we first acquired him. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-prospects-baltimore-orioles/
  4. sveumrules
    Mariano Rivera is the greatest post season performer of all time & it's not even close... https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/9/26/2449377/mariano-rivera-king-of-postseason-wpa
  5. sveumrules
    Vlad Guerrero | 9,059 PAs | 140 OPS+ | 59.4 WAR Larry Walker | 8,030 PAs | 141 OPS+ | 72.7 WAR Tom Glavine | 4,413 IP | 118 ERA+ | 74.1 WAR Mike Mussina | 3,562 IP | 123 ERA+ | 82.9 WAR Curt Schilling | 3,261 IP | 127 ERA+ | 80.6 WAR
  6. sveumrules
    why? Because Davidson's career 804 OPS versus lefties is higher than Shaw's career 713 OPS vs lefties. If you look at just 2018 the difference is even more stark, 599 OPS for Shaw vs LHP compared to an 882 OPS vs LHP for Davidson.
  7. sveumrules
    Unless the Brewers open their books at some point, we'll never know how the stadium naming rights or any other income is allocated. I think we can all agree that the best way to increase expenditures is by increasing revenues. Then again there is the school of thought that more money = more problems.
  8. sveumrules
    A good defensive shortstop with little power is probably Turang's floor. As you said, MLB is littered with guys like that so it is a pretty high floor. If he can develop his hit/power tools at all you have an All Star caliber player. High floor, high ceiling = good prospect.
  9. sveumrules
    Would love to have the current version of Haniger, but it took getting traded then demoted down to A+ by his new organization before he started to make the changes that allowed him to thrive. Maybe he makes the same changes had he not been dealt/demoted & instead stagnated in our system for another year or two, maybe not. Either way, good on him for doing so & fulfilling his promise.
  10. sveumrules
    The best four year stretch of Molitor's career was between ages 34 & 37. His 2nd through 5th best OPS+ marks came in those seasons, behind only his 1987 campaign. What was he on? Or was it what he was off? Or are certain hitters, even among the very best of the very best, just outliers?
  11. sveumrules
    As it relates to the Brewers at this point "No Hay Banda", but for those who like to keep tabs on former Brewers prospects it looks like Anthony checks in at #18 on FanGraphs evaluation of the stacked Tampa Bay system... https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/
  12. sveumrules
    Coming into last year the Nationals had won the division two years in a row (& four of the last six) with no major personnel losses. Maybe the race for second place in the NL East was viewed as wide open, but everyone had the Nationals winning the division by a comfortable margin.
  13. sveumrules
    This is pretty much it. The Reds last made the playoffs in 2013. In the five seasons since they have won an MLB worst 343 games, 10 fewer than the next worst club. Their offense has been comparable to ours the last three years (93 wRC+/55.2 WAR vs 95 wRC+/56.5 WAR), but they've had thee worst pitching on all of MLB by a huge margin (9.2 WAR vs 24 WAR for the next worst team). After a half decade of being comfortably the worst team in MLB you almost have to make some moves to at least give the appearance of trying. The Reds trying to fix their pitching by bringing in DJ & making the moves they have should make the NL more competitive & thus more interesting, which I can always get behind.
  14. sveumrules
    Villar career | 256/325/394 (93 OPS+) 2,288 PAs Marwin career | 264/319/418 (103 OPS+) 2,706 PAs If you narrow it down to just the last two years the difference is more stark... Villar 2017-18 | 251/310/379 (83 OPS+) 951 PAs Marwin 2017-18 | 279/349/467 (124 OPS+) 1,067 PAs
  15. sveumrules
    It's hard not to undervalue Claudio the way he pitched in 2018. An incredible 91 hits allowed in only 68 IPs. A huge WHIP of 1.55. He can only pitch to LH hitters because righties hit .369/.404 against him. Doesn't strike out many and allows a lot of contact. He's basically a one hitter and out type pitcher that many teams can't afford to have in their pen. Over the last three seasons 189 relievers have pitched at least 100 innings. Of that sample, Claudio ranks... IP (197) 22nd BB/9 (1.73) 7th HR/9 (0.41) 8th GB% (63.7) 5th ERA- (69) 34th FIP- (70) 24th rWAR (3.8) 33rd fWAR (3.4) 24th WPA (+4.42) 20th Elite is a tricky word, but Claudio has been among the top 4% of all relievers in limiting both walks/homers & inducing ground balls. Not bad for a guy whose FB velocity (86.1) ranked 187th & K/9 (5.87) ranked 183rd. Sure, he has limitations, but even with those limitations has been at worst a top 35ish reliever over the last three seasons. He also has more IP than games in each if the last three seasons, so I don't believe he will be a one hitter & out type pitcher.
  16. sveumrules
    For comparison there were 448 players who got at least 100 PAs in MLB last year. A 14.4% BB rate would have ranked 22nd (5th percentile) while an 11.2% rate would have come in 72nd (16th percentile).
  17. sveumrules
    Justin Bour is 31 & put up a 126 OPS+ between 2017 & 2018 in 930 PAs. He is getting 1/2.5 million for 2019. Matt Adams is 30 & put up a 110 OPS+ between 2017 & 2018 in 704 PAs. He is getting 1/3 million for 2019 with a million dollar buyout on a 2020 option. Eric Thames is 32 & put up a 119 OPS+ between 2017 & 2018 in 829 PAs. At 1/6 million for 2019 plus the million buyout for 2020 he probably has slightly negative value with guys like Lucas Duda (33, 109 OPS in 858 2018-18 PAs) & Logan Morrison (31, 110 OPS+ in 960 2017-18 PAs) still out there looking for teams.
  18. sveumrules
    Yes. Here's an article from MLB.com listing the best UDFAs of all time... https://www.mlb.com/cut4/best-undrafted-players-in-mlb-history/c-278967168 You'll notice the most recent guys on there are Mike Redmond & Kevin Millar. MLB organizations have gotten really good at mining every last nugget, but guys still slip through the cracks for different reasons. I believe Eddie Silva & Aaron Wilkerson are UDFAs currently in the system.
  19. sveumrules
    For 2018 BPRo's catching metrics had Realmuto 54th (+0.4) & Barnhart 109th (-8.4) out of 117. For 2017 it looks like they came in at Realmuto 13th (+9.1) & Barnhart 72nd (-0.9) of 111. Barnhart has been better at blocking (+6.3 vs. +2.6) & throwing (+4.6 vs +1.1) over the last two years, but JT has a massive edge in framing (+4.9 vs. -19.7) so who is a better defender pretty much comes down to how much stock you want to put into framing numbers.
  20. sveumrules
    Banrhart's been around a 89-90 wRC+ the last couple years. No slouch, but JT would still be a big upgrade if he's coming in around a 120-125 wRC+. If you think getting out of Marlins Park will help him out (a la Yelich) he could climb even higher. If they could get the deal done without Senzel included they could have a pretty interesting lineup next year with JT, Votto, Scooter, Peraza, Suarez, Winker, Senzel & Puig. Still no pitching to really speak of though. If the Marlins are willing to take guys that are a little farther out two of Taylor Trammell, Hunter Greene & Jonathan India would probably get them the bulk of the way there.
  21. sveumrules
    Has anyone seen Jkromb?
  22. sveumrules
    It is not a slight offensive upgrade. It's an upgrade of over 25% based on their career production. Grandal career 240/341/441 (117 wRC+) M Pina career 263/318/407 (90 wRC+) Manny hitting for a better average is pretty meaningless when he still has a lower OBP & SLG while also playing in a more hitter friendly park, thus the massive edge in wRC+ for Yasmani.
  23. sveumrules
    Something else to consider with DSL walk rates is that the overwhelming majority of pitchers are teenagers & many will never even make it stateside. There is a lot of poor command on display. 570 players got at least 100 PAs in the DSL last year, Victor's 14.4% BB rate ranked 102nd (18th percentile) while Felix's 11.2% rate ranked 249th (44th percentile).
  24. sveumrules
    Spotrac has Strasburg as the highest paid player for 2019 @ 35 million, though most of it is deferred. Trout is next @ 33.25 million. I'm not sure 2/70 gets it done, but bump it up to 3/110 or 4/150 & it starts to get hard to say no with the average annual value at 36-38ish million plus the chance to hit free agency again at 29/30.
  25. sveumrules
    Another big difference between Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann is that the entire philosophy behind our development of minor league pitching has evolved considerably since Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann were on the farm.
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