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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Out of the "proven closers" we had a shot at this offseason I'll take Neftali on a one year deal over the two years Santiago Casilla got coming off a second half implosion or whatever demands Greg Holland has coming off surgery. Probably won't return any kind of haul if he has a good first half, but Brad Ziegler with similar salary/team control (& exact opposite stuff) netted a couple A ballers who'd already had some success & couldn't buy a beer last deadline. As much as Stearns seems to love mining the low minors for hidden gems I'm fine with rolling those dice.
  2. sveumrules
    Three relievers: 1289 IP | 1251 K | 486 BB | 3.03 ERA | 132 ERA+ 1089 IP | 1133 K | 307 BB | 2.87 ERA | 141 ERA+ 903 IP | 1196 K | 300 BB | 2.31 ERA | 187 ERA+ One of these relievers got 74%, one got 34% & one got 10%. Do their career numbers warrant such a discrepancy in votes received?
  3. sveumrules
    There are a few pictures from the game on Getty. First digit is a 3 for sure, second digit is only partially visible in one picture & I can't tell what it is myself.
  4. sveumrules
    An article such as this is why I don't understand there not being a little more short term optimism about this team. I think the lack of short term optimism is mostly due to the sheer quantity of "ifs" this team has. On offense: IF Villar can repeat last year, IF Arcia can build on the progress he showed at the plate as the year went on, IF Shaw can get back to being a league average regular, IF Santana can stay healthy & put it all together, IF the gains Broxton made in the 2nd half are for real, IF Braun can stay healthy and ward off aging, IF Thames KBO production carries over... On the mound: IF Guerra can pitch a full season at the same level he did last year, IF Davies can repeat or build upon his performance, IF Nelson/Peralta can get back to pitching like league averagish starters for a whole season, IF Hader can come up at some point & make an impact, IF the bullpen can overcome the losses of Jeffress/Smith/Thornburg... With that many "ifs" some are bound to break good and others to break bad. There are pretty sizable error bars around all team projections but the Brewers are that much bigger given their sheer quantity of young players with limited track records of success.
  5. sveumrules
    I don't think it's a pipe dream, necessarily. From Shaw's debut in 2015 thru the 2016 All Star Break he hit 269/330/469 (109 wRC+) with 22 HR & 84 RBI in 585 plate appearances so he's done it once already. The only problem is that the second half of 2016 (194/259/360 59 wRC+) also happened & more recently. Hopefully Shaw is an adjustment or two & some consistent playing time away from getting back to the hitter he started his MLB career as.
  6. sveumrules
    Out of 41 qualifiers in the Frisco League in 2016 Cordell's 127 wRC+ ranked 10th. Sure he might have "only" hit 19 home runs but his SLG of 484 (4th of 41) & his ISO of 220 (3rd of 41) are probably more indicative of his power potential relative to his peers. He's also an above average runner to go along with his plus power. I think he's got a sneaky chance to be a poor man's Corey Hart, which is fine for someone who projects to be your 4th OF and is hanging out in the teens on a prospect list.
  7. sveumrules
    Sickels has posted his Brewers top 20... http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/17/14297686/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2017 Dubon at #5 probably the biggest surprise.
  8. sveumrules
    Stearns & Counsell have both been pretty vocal about believing that competition is good for development. I think this potential signing helps to accomplish that. If Knebel or Barnes or anyone else proves they deserve to close they will get that opportunity. This rumored acquisition seems to imply the organization doesn't believe they are there yet.
  9. sveumrules
    Out of the "proven closers" we had a shot at this offseason I'll take Neftali on a one year deal over two years of Santiago Casilla coming off a second half implosion or whatever demands Greg Holland had coming off surgery. Probably won't return any kind of haul if he has a good first half, but Brad Ziegler netted a couple interesting A ballers who couldn't buy a beer last deadline. As much as Stearns seems to love mining the low minors for hidden gems I'm fine with rolling those dice.
  10. sveumrules
    Peralta is on his second year of Arby's. Bauer & Salazar are first timers.
  11. sveumrules
    One thing I like about Longenhagen's lists at FG is that they aren't a fixed number; top 20, top 10, etc. The lists published thus far have ranged in size from Top 14 (Arizona) to Top 32 (San Diego) so it gives a little better idea as to the depth of the individual systems.
  12. sveumrules
    Not sure if it's available anywhere in leaderboard form but Football Reference has play logs on the player pages & it looks like one of Rip's thirty four rushes went for negative yards this year. He also had four no gainers. For comparison Montgomery was 11 of 77 no gain or negative yards, Lacy was 13 of 71, Starks was 19 of 63 (ouch) & Michael was 7 of 31.
  13. sveumrules
    Yeah, the comps are always interesting. Villar as Tony Phillips, yes please! Travis Shaw as Joe Dillon, ugh. Keon Broxton as Chris Dickerson, please no. Chris Carter as Rob Deer, duh. Zach Davies as Storm Davis, Storm Davies? Brandon Woodruff as Ben Hendrickson, covers eyes.
  14. sveumrules
    The 2017 projected standings on Fangraphs currently have the bottom five projected as SD 66, MKE 67, CIN 69, PHI 70 & CWS 71 wins before a small gap up to the Twins 75 & Braves 76. I believe those projections are based on STEAMER alone as ZIPS hasn't come out for all teams yet. Once it does I believe FG blends the two for their final preseason projections. Thames would be the second best hitter behind Braun with that ZIPS projection, which could well end up being the case. I think Thames, Santana, Villar & Broxton all have a pretty decent chance to end up in the 110-120 wRC+ range when all is said & done.
  15. sveumrules
    ZIPS projections released for Brewers today at Fangraphs... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/ Villar 256/332/410 Braun 282/343/477 Arcia 245/289/379 Broxton 216/297/408 Domingo 243/333/441 Brinson 254/294/458 Thames 247/321/493 Davies 3.99 ERA/3.95 FIP Hader 3.90 ERA/3.85 FIP Guerra 4.24 ERA/4.54 FIP Barnes 3.52 ERA/3.42 FIP Knebel 3.65 ERA/3.61 FIP
  16. sveumrules
    ZIPS is a little more conservative on Thames at 247/321/493, which would essentially match Carter's line from last year with some home runs & walks traded out for singles & doubles. Let's say the Steamer projections are close to accurate. Is Thames someone we keep or are we still looking at flipping him? Even if Thames matches his projections I think it will take longer than normal for his value around the league to catch up given his unique background (call it the Guerra effect if you will) so I'd imagine he'll be here for awhile if he does in fact prove to be productive.
  17. sveumrules
    I think with his combination of defensive versatility, above average speed & low K rates that a floor of utility infielder should be easily attainable. If the uptick in power he showed at AA is sustainable & more than just small sample flukiness I don't think a ceiling of league average regular or better is all that far outside the realm of possibility. Maybe something like an infielder version of Ender Inciarte.
  18. sveumrules
    The team with the worst regular season record of the teams in the playoff field has won four of twenty two World Series in the wild card era compared to five of twenty two for the team with the best regular season record in the playoff field.
  19. sveumrules
    1903-68 (before divisions, 2 teams in postseason) 37 of 65 WS winners had best regular season record, 57%. 1969-93 (divisions added, 4 teams in postseason) 7 of 25 WS winners had best regular season record, 28%. 1995-2016 (wild card era, 8/10 teams in postseason) 5 of 22 WS winners had best regular season record, 23%.
  20. sveumrules
    It depends on which metric you use. Fangraphs uses UZR in their WAR calculation while BRef uses DRS. Last three years numbers are... 2016 LF: -3 UZR, +6 DRS 2015 RF: -6 UZR, +1 DRS 2014 RF: -7 UZR, -8 DRS Over his 8,173 career inning in LF Braun is at -23 UZR & +29 DRS, so one system has seen him as below average and the other has seen him as above average. My best guess is that Braun is about average defensively as a LF. Some years a little above, some years a little below depending on batted ball opportunity & health. He has definitely improved since he first started out there in my observation.
  21. sveumrules
    Position adjustment for DH is -15 while it is only -7 for LF, so Braun would likely take a small hit on the defense/position portion of the WAR equation. For reference the last few years he's been around -9 to -13 for position & defense. Where he could make that difference up is if being a full time DH allowed him to stay healthier to the point where he was able to play more often and possibly perform at a higher level when on the field, increasing his totals in the replacement & offense columns. There is also a league bonus for AL players (+2.5ish I believe) playing in what is perceived to be the harder league so that would also offset some of the value lost going from a below average LF to full time DH.
  22. sveumrules
    Encarnacion | 2017 Age: 34 | 3 years/65 million 2015-16: 269/364/542 | 142 wRC+ | 1326 PAs | +60 Off | 8.4 fWAR Braun | 2017 Age: 33 | 4 years/76 million 2015-16: 295/361/518 | 131 wRC+ | 1132 PAs | +44 Off | 6.1 fWAR The only real edge Braun has on Encarnacion is that he is one notch higher on the defensive spectrum & his offensive game is more well rounded. He is a year younger, but has a worse recent track record in both performance & health so I think that is more or less a wash. If the market just valued EE's skillset at 3/65 it's pretty easy to see why there haven't been any takers on Braun at 4/76. It definitely seems that unless we take on a deadweight contract in return or eat a decent portion of Braun's remaining commitment we aren't getting any prospects of note in any hypothetical trade.
  23. sveumrules
    Fangraphs takes a crack at figuring out Ryan Braun's trade value... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-disappearing-trade-value-of-ryan-braun/ Braun’s 2016 exceeded his projections; if he were to do the same thing this year, he’d be well on his way to producing nearly as much value as he’ll be paid for the rest of his deal. To break even, Braun would need to record about 7.5 WAR over the next four years, starting at about 2.5 WAR in 2017, losing half a win each year thereafter. I looked at some comps for Braun based on the seven wins and 125 wRC+ he recorded from his age-30 through age-32 seasons. The result is mostly boom or bust for similar players in their age-33 campaigns. There were guys who performed well like Brian Downing, David Justice, and Josh Willingham. There are also replacement-level types like Jermaine Dye, Cliff Floyd, and Luke Scott. Removing Braun’s ugly age-30 season and focusing on comps for ages 31 and 32 produces a collection of 16 players. They averaged 2.0 WAR at age 33, with half of the group exceeding 2.4 WAR. From age 33 through 36, that group averaged 6.6 WAR — not too far from the break-even point of the contract — with seven of the 16 players at or exceeding 8.0 WAR.
  24. sveumrules
    How is his "stuff" different from Kyle Hendricks? Their stuff is pretty similar no doubt. The main advantage Hendricks had last year was playing in front of one of the best team defenses of all time. 2015: 180 IP, 167 K, 43 BB, 17 HR, 3.95 ERA 2016: 190 IP, 170 K, 44 BB, 15 HR, 2.13 ERA The only real difference between the two years is that Hendricks allowed about 6% more soft contact in 2016 than in 2015, though I don't think that is worth 1.8 earned runs per nine innings. Hendricks is probably the ultimate attainable upside for Davies, but without a 200 IP season under his belt and his only remarkable season being greatly aided by historic team defense I don't think Hendricks quite qualifies for "ace" status yet. At least not by my definition.
  25. sveumrules
    Dave Cameron with a pretty thorough breakdown of the Eaton trade versus the Fowler signing... http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/comparing-the-dexter-fowler-and-adam-eaton-decisions/ "With salary, draft pick tax, and aging factored in, these numbers give Eaton something like an $85 million advantage in value. So, to decide whether which team made out better with their center field decision, we have to decide whether we think the prospects the Nationals gave up are worth more than $85 million."
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