sveumrules

Jean Segura 2014-15 64 wRC+ (122nd of 124 qualifiers) -46.8 batting runs (124th of 124 qualifiers) 25.6 soft hit percentage (124th of 124 qualifiers)

Jean Segura 2014-15 288 Games / 1,141 Plate Appearances / 0.2 fWAR Jurickson Profar 2014-15 0 Games / 0 Plate Appearances / 0.0 fWAR.

You got it, SRB. Lawrie, to me is a great example of how imperfect prospecting is and why it's funny to me that people get so caught up on something like a "top 30 organizational prospect". Lawrie was the 16th overall pick in his draft. Following that he was ranked 81st, 59th and 40th by Baseball America on their top 100 lists with a reputation as a typical Brewers bat first, no glove/position prospect. This is a guy that's been watched by all the scouts, numerous times over many years. He gets to the big leagues and outside of 171 plate appearances in his first season he has been a league averagish bat with plus defense at 2B/3B, pretty much the opposite of what everyone was told to expect. If all the scouts and listmakers can be so wrong about one of the most watched guys in the minors, how much can they possibly know about guys farther down the organizational lists?

Ok, so in 112 PA's against LHP last year Lind produced a 54 wRC+. Fangraphs doesn't have splits for their value stats, but I looked up the closest batter I could find to Lind's splits against lefties and got Mike Olt, 102 PA's with a 56wRC+. For that offensive offensive output he received -5.2 batting runs. Last year Lind was credited with 12.4 batting runs so subtracting his left production he is at about 17.6 batting runs as a righty. But batting runs is only one component of WAR. Lind was credited with 16.7 runs just for playing time. Subtract his lefty plate appearances (19.5% of all PA's) and his playing time is now only worth 13.4 runs. Add it all up and you have 2015 Adam Lind producing 12.4 batting runs plus 16.7 runs for playing time and he is at 29.1 runs before accounting for defense, baserunning or position. Now lets take hypothetical 2015 Adam Lind producing 17.6 batting runs only against righties with only 13.4 runs for playing time in the same scenario and you are now at 31 runs before defense, baserunning or position. A marginal difference of 2 runs or about .2 WAR. Starting at 3 WAR for Lind in 2016 is already a huge assumption. Saying he would be worth 3.5-4 if platooned is an even huger assumption as the numbers above bear out. A good number of the runs gained by being platooned are eaten up by receiving that much less playing time.

Davis has had monthly OPS splits of 1.035, .852, .683, .914, .799, .734, .758, .579, .699, .865, .620, .867 & .937 since he started playing regularly. With the average LF producing an OPS around .719-.730 the last three seasons I'd say that's 6 good months, 3 better than average months and 4 below average months. Sure, his arm is bad. We all know this, but his range and fielding are just fine which brings him up to slightly below average overall in the field (-6 UZR, -3 DRS) over the last three years.

Anyone disappointed with the return is WAY overvaluing Adam Lind here. This is a guy who should rarely see the field at 1B or face a LHP in order to keep him on the field and maximize his production. His wRC+ of 119 ranked 47th in MLB last year among qualifiers and 18th among 1B/DH. Sure he is a relative bargain at 8 million but even if you project him at 2 WAR next year (he's at 2.2, 1.9. 1.6 the last 3 years) that only leaves about 8 million in surplus value. According to the most recent studies hitters in the back end of the top 100 prospects have an average surplus value of 11.6 million with pitchers in the back end of the top 100 coming in at 9.6 million. Lind also is not a good candidate for the qualifying offer as he is very likely to accept.

That article is interesting, if not a little contradictory. The sub title is "MLB Payrolls Matter More Than Ever" then the money quote at the close of the article suggests that maybe its other, non-payroll factors that matter more than ever. Fort, however, also thinks that the case for the relationship between payroll and wins is overstated. “When have we ever been satisfied that a simple relationship between one variable and another variable tells the whole story of the determination of winning?” he says. “What you really need to do is stop and think about what are all the other things: nothing about coaches, nothing about front office/GM acumen.” In Fort’s view, equating payroll and wins leaves out too many other variables.

This point is very important. Given that salary is not distributed evenly saying a top 3, top 5, top 10 payroll is fine for quick & dirty purposes but doesn't really tell you much outside of a general range within league context. Looking at the 2015 opening day payrolls the mean payroll was approximately 125 million with a standard deviation of about 45 million. With that in mind the best way to group teams based on opening day payroll for 2015 would be as such... 3+ Standard Deviations above mean (Super Duper Mega Rich) (LAD $273) 2+ Standard Deviations above mean (Super Mega Rich) (NYY $219) 1+ Standard Deviations above mean (Mega Rich) (BOS $187, DET $174, SFG $173) 0-1 Standard Deviations above mean (Rich) (WAS $165, LAA $151, TEX $142, PHI $136) 0-1 Standard Deviations below mean (Status Quo) (TOR $122, STL $121, SEA $120, CHN $119, CIN $117, CHA $115, KCR $114, BAL $110, MIN $109, MIL $105, COL $102, NYM $101, SDP $101, ATL $98, ARI $92, PIT $88, CLE $86, OAK $86) 1+ Standard Deviations below mean (Poor) (TBR $76, HOU $71, MIA $68) With those groupings established, 3 of the 9 teams in the rich & above brackets (33%) qualified for postseason play, 6 of the 18 teams in the status quo (33%) qualified for postseason play and 1 of the 3 poor teams (33%) qualified for postseason play. You've done all of this nice analysis and then you took it and based your conclusion on a 1 season sample. Sorry, I'm at work right now and wasn't able to do the math for all 17 years that data is available on steve the ump's website. If you'd like to go through and do all the compuatations for me it will save me quite a bit of time when I get home.

This point is very important. Given that salary is not distributed evenly saying a top 3, top 5, top 10 payroll is fine for quick & dirty purposes but doesn't really tell you much outside of a general range within league context. Looking at the 2015 opening day payrolls the mean payroll was approximately 125 million with a standard deviation of about 45 million. With that in mind the best way to group teams based on opening day payroll for 2015 would be as such... 3+ Standard Deviations above mean (Super Duper Mega Rich) (LAD $273) 2+ Standard Deviations above mean (Super Mega Rich) (NYY $219) 1+ Standard Deviations above mean (Mega Rich) (BOS $187, DET $174, SFG $173) 0-1 Standard Deviations above mean (Rich) (WAS $165, LAA $151, TEX $142, PHI $136) 0-1 Standard Deviations below mean (Status Quo) (TOR $122, STL $121, SEA $120, CHN $119, CIN $117, CHA $115, KCR $114, BAL $110, MIN $109, MIL $105, COL $102, NYM $101, SDP $101, ATL $98, ARI $92, PIT $88, CLE $86, OAK $86) 1+ Standard Deviations below mean (Poor) (TBR $76, HOU $71, MIA $68) With those groupings established, 3 of the 9 teams in the rich & above brackets (33%) qualified for postseason play, 6 of the 18 teams in the status quo (33%) qualified for postseason play and 1 of the 3 poor teams (33%) qualified for postseason play.

That's the thing, though, the concept isn't always successful. When the Phillies went on their postseason run from 2007-11 they ranked 13th (Lost LDS), 12th (Won WS), 7th (Lost WS), 4th (Lost NLCS) & 2nd (Lost LDS) in opening day payroll. Over the next 4 years they have ranked 2nd (81 wins), 3rd (73 wins), 3rd (73 wins) and 9th (63 wins). By trying to spend money to extend a strong team longer they've dug themselves into a huge hole requiring a complete tear down & rebuild.

MrTPlush referred specifically to the last two years. Any advantage the Red Sox may or may not have had during that time has apparently been squandered.

In 2015 the Red Sox had the 3rd highest opening day payroll, and finished last in their division. In 2014 the Red Sox had the 4th highest opening day payroll, and finished last in their division.

World Series teams with opening day payroll rank 2015 KCR (16) NYM (21) 2014 SFG (07) KCR (19) 2013 BOS (04) STL (10) 2012 SFG (08) DET (05) 2011 STL (11) TEX (13) 2010 SFG (10) TEX (27) 2009 NYY (01) PHI (07) 2008 PHI (12) TBR (29) 2007 BOS (02) COL (25) 2006 STL (11) DET (14) 2005 CWS (13) HOU (12) 2004 BOS (02) STL (11) 2003 FLA (25) NYY (01) 2002 ANA (14) SFG (10) 2001 ARI (08) NYY (01) 2000 NYY (01) NYM (06) Looks like a pretty even mix of teams. Zero of the last twelve WS teams have had a top 3 opening day payroll. Only two of the last twelve had a top 5 opening day payroll. If anything it appears that the trend is moving more towards the middle than earlier in the millenium when there were a lot more Yankees & Boston teams dominating the mix. Sure, the margin for error is much greater with a higher payroll, but the opportunity for error is that much greater as well.

The small markets get that elite talent for 6-7 years at cut rate prices, oftentimes more if they get them to sign an extension before hitting free agency. Then the elite talents sign what most consider to be financially imprudent contracts with high revenue teams. If a team drafts & develops well enough being in a small/mid sized market can actually be advantageous. I know I for one am happy we don't have CC or Prince on the books at their current compensation levels. The Cardinals "couldn't afford" to sign Pujols and they have done alright since he left.

If this goes to trial I give Russ an 11.9% chance of walking, with a 5.7% chance that his lawyers hit one out of the park. I'd give him a 32.9% chance at striking out completely. As for the remaining 49.5%, anything could happen as it's still in play.

Segura has pretty even career splits (271/301/361 vs RHP, 251/303/359 vs LHP) so the only real benefit of platooning him with Scooter would be the defensive upgrade and not having to watch Scooter face LHP. While Jean is a clear upgrade over Scooter vs LHP, his 662 OPS vs LHP is well below the MLB average for RHB facing LHP which has hovered around 715 since Segura has been a starter.

The four teams left in the MLB postseason rank 10th, 11th, 14th & 15th in team payroll this year.

Handy chart.

When this thread started we had the 7th draft position and we ended up with the 5th pick, so mission accomplished? I can't imagine that if you told any "blow-it-up" leaning Brewer fan before the season started that we would trade Gomez, Fiers, Parra, Broxton, Aramis and Cotts for an array of prospects and end up with the 5th pick in the 2016 draft all while reassigning Melvin to a new role and hiring a 30 year old analytically minded GM to take his place that said fan would have anything but thrilled.

This. Even though most Latin players are from DR I would think Mexico City would be a huge draw for them and they might even have an advantage with Latin free agents. I also think it could potentially help spur interest in the game among the ever growing Mexican population in the US. I know at my high school there were a lot of Mexican kids but only one that went out for the baseball team.

Over the last 5 seasons, Mike Trout has produced the most fWAR in all of MLB, 38.5. The next closest is Clayton Kershaw at 38.3 (36.4 pitching + 1.9 batting), while the next closest position player is Andrew McCutchen at 33.3. This despite Trout only accumulating 135 plate appearances and 0.7 fWAR in 2011. So essentially over the last four seasons Mike Trout has been better than anyone else has been over the last five. He will likely have only one MVP award to show for those four seasons. It should also be mentioned that the only reason the Angles had pick number 25 in the 2009 draft instead of the Brewers was because Elias had Teixeira ranked higher than CC so the Angels got the Yankees first rounder and we got their second rounder.

I personally love it. Sure, it's not fair but any set up will inherently be unfair in one way or another. This set up requires the least time while providing the most excitement.

Ryan Braun is currently slated to be the 36th highest paid player in MLB for 2016, by the time this winter's free agents sign he will be outside of the top 40 highest paid players. He has produced a 130 wRC+ and is currently 30th in batting runs this year, though a couple few guys will probably pass him these next couple weeks. His salary is more or less commensurate with his production, as long as he can hold steady and maintain health. Even if he'd finished out the season without needing this procedure I'm guessing teams still would have had enough reservations that he wasn't getting traded anyway so it doesn't really change anything. If he can match this year's production and finish next year healthy I could see teams having interest then.

Even assuming his 2013 was a career year fluke, Davis still has plenty of the always coveted right handed power with a .226 ISO (17th in MLB) over the last two years. I think a good comp for a possible trade return would be Evan Gattis who returned Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman and Mike Foltynewicz last offseason. Khris Davis 2014-15 | 240/305/465 Evan Gattis 2013-14 | 253/304/487 Granted, Gattis was a "catcher" but Houston hasn't played him there all season so I don't think they surrendered any extra value in the trade as a result.

Kintzler, Jimenez, Schafer, Thornburg & Dominguez are also listed as arbitration eligible on Cot's spreadsheet.