sveumrules

Yeah, third base isn't "Third Base" anymore. The weasel has gone pop, as it were. From 2012 to 2022 the league average wRC+ ranged between 100 and 107 for third basemen, with seven of those eleven seasons at 105 or higher. The last three years? 96, 97 and 96 wRC+ at the not so hot corner. That's more like a steroid era second baseman than the chiseled Third Basemen of our mind's eye.

The punchless Brewers offense scored the third most runs in baseball last year, in 2024 they scored the sixth most runs in MLB. Last two years their 343 home runs are 20th, their .150 isolated slugging is 22nd, and their 1,583 runs scored are 4th in MLB. Hitting home runs is one way to score runs, having a bunch of really fast guys (+34.9 BsR is 1st in MLB last two years) on base all the time (.329 OBP is 4th in MLB last two years) putting a ton of pressure on the pitcher and defense (3,427 PA with RISP are 1st in MLB last two years) is another way.

Burger has -16 DRS | -15 FRV for his career at 3B, I don't think the Brewers would consider that up to snuff with how much they prioritize defense. His 5.1% walk rate is also a bottom dozen mark in MLB since 2022, where the Brewers (9.5 BB% is 3rd in MLB since 2022) typically tend to go for hitters with more patience in their profile.

From 2022 to 2024 he had a pretty good hit tool with a 112 AVG+ and 72 K+ that were both among the Top Forty or so in MLB plus average-ish power with a 102 ISO+. That all backed up big time last year though with a 97 AVG+ | 85 K+ | 60 ISO+. He's also never walked (72 BB+ last four years) and has put up negative fielding metrics all around the infield with -4 DRS | -7 FRV at second, -5 DRS | -10 FRV at short, and -6 DRS | -14 FRV at third for his career. Even if the bat bounced back, not sure the glove is a fit with the Brewers run prevention emphasis.

Who believed the 2025 Brewers were better than the 2024 Brewers before pitchers and catchers had even reported to Maryvale? Here is the 2025 Season Win Prediction thread, the overwhelming majority of the posters saw them regressing from the 93 wins they posted in 2024.

Note to self, check back on this thread September 28th 2026.

Monasterio, Seigler and Hamilton are backup infielder potpourri so the trade essentially boils down to... exchanging Durbin's higher established floor for the potentially higher ceiling of Harrison... and flipping the total uncertainty of the Comp B pick that will be at minimum a couple two tree years timeline to MLB even if it were a college pick for Drohan who at first glance looks like SP depth / possible long relief option for this year.

Priester was traded from the Pirates to Boston, then from Boston to us. I mean, Durbin was traded from the Yankees to us, and now from us to Boston so he has been traded twice also.

Essentially the Brewers excel at everything projections struggle the most to capture. Elite defense and speed gets regressed heavily towards the middle. Brewers rely on young depth more than a top heavy lineup of established stars. They’ve also found out of nowhere guys pretty consistently that helps them pick up a few wins over the preseason projections too.

Yeah, no reason to change coaches now. Let Doc ride the tank out for the rest of this year while internally searching for the best up and comer to replace him next season. Would love it if they did the same thing with Horst, let him tinker around the edges at the deadline if he can get any future assets for Kuzma or Portis while the owners take the next few months to figure out a GM replacement who can execute the Giannis trade in the offseason. Guess we'll see how things play out in that regard over the next few days. If a good enough offer comes in I'm fine with dealing Giannis now and being done with the whole thing too, but if Horst takes a poo poo platter to placate the media mob and league office...well I guess I'm prepared for that eventuality too.

Believe the extension Bud signed after the Championship ran through the 2024-25 season, so he should be off the books at this point. All I could find with a quick search on Griffin was that it was a multi year contract. If it was a three year deal, then he would be off the books after this season as well. Looks like Doc's contract runs through the upcoming 2026-27 season.

Believe so. Would imagine Framber and Gallen are the only real multi year guys left on the market. Maybe Littell still finds a two year deal somewhere? Bassitt probably deserves two years with how consistent he's been the last seven years or so, but he's also over two years older than Eugenio so probably ain't happening.

Here's my attempt to rank potential Giannis offers. Did my best at ballpark salary matching (insert Thansis or whatever other low dollar vets needed on either side for the math to line up) while also trying to figure out which teams have what picks that are actually tradable... LEGIT CONTENDER TIER (OKC) Hartenstein ($28.5M) one of Dort ($18.2M) or Caruso ($18.1M) and Topic ($5.2M) PICKS : Clippers 2026 1st, Rockets 2026 1st, 76ers 2026 1st, 2027 swap, 2027 Clippers swap, Nuggets 2027 1st, 2028 1st, 2028 Mavericks swap, 2029 swap, Nuggets 2029 1st, 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st [could offer a smorgasbord of various picks and swaps to pair up SGA with Giannis] (SAS) Vassell ($27M) Barnes ($19M) Harper ($12.4M) PICKS : 2026 Hawks swap, Hawks 2027 1st, 2028 swap, Celtics 2028 swap, 2029 1st, 2030 swap, 2031 1st, 2031 Sacramento swap, 2032 swap [nice collection of picks and swaps at the Spurs disposal if they want to team up Giannis and Wemby for a monster front court] (HOU) Sengun ($33.9M) Adams ($14.1M) Eason ($5.7M) PICKS : 2027 1st, 2027 Suns 1st, 2027 Nets swap, 2028 swap, 2029 1st, 2029 swap (convoluted), 2030 swap, 2031 1st, 2032 swap [kind of have to include Sengun to make salaries work and because of potential fit issues with Giannis since he doesn't have much of an outside game either. Alperen would probably be the best win now kind of piece the Bucks could get back. 2027 Nets swap could be juicy] (DET) Tobias ($26.6M) Stewart ($15.0M) Holland ($8.7M) PICKS : 2026 1st, 2027 swap, 2028 1st, 2029 swap, 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st [from what I can tell the Pistons control all their FRPs. Don't think they'd send the whole stash but maybe something like the four actual firsts or the 2028-32 run. The three players in the trade are currently 5th, 6th and 7th on the team in minutes so would eat into their depth a bunch.] BORDERLINE CONTENDERS AND/OR HAVE THE DRAFT CAPITAL TIER (TOR) Barrett ($27.7M) Poeltl ($19.5M) Murray-Boyles ($6.3M) PICKS : 2026 1st, 2027 swap, 2028 1st, 2029 swap, 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st [believe the Raptors also control their full stash of FRPs] (CHA) LaMelo ($40M) Miller ($12M) Salaun ($7.8M) PICKS : 2026 1st, 2026 1st (convoluted), 2027 swap, Mavs 2027 1st (with protections), Heat 2027 1st (with protections), 2028 1st, 2029 swap, 2029 1st (convoluted), 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st [the Hornets have all their own firsts plus four more incoming so could offer a haul plus maybe the best collection of young salary matchers while still keeping Kon. Former Bucks assistant Charles Lee is the current head coach for whatever that is or isn't worth] (BRK) Claxton ($25.3M) Mann ($15M) Denim ($6.9M) PICKS : 2026 1st, Knicks 2027 1st, 2028 1st, 76ers 2028 1st (with protections), 2029 swap, Knicks 2029 1st, 2029 1st (convoluted), 2030 1st, 2031 swap, Knicks 2031 1st, 2032 1st [could probably put together the best collection of picks and swaps for Giannis and get him to New York City or thereabouts. Pair him with MPJ and I try to build it from there] (POR) Grant ($32M) Thybulle ($11.6M) Sharpe ($8.4M) PICKS : 2028 Bucks swap, 2028 1st, 2028 Magic 1st, 2029 swap, 2029 Bucks 1st, 2030 1st, 2030 Bucks swap, 2031 swap, 2032 1st [fringe contender in the West at the moment, but would reunite Giannis with old buddy Jrue (& Dame next year) and could get the Bucks some of their own draft capital back. If they could pry Deni Avidja instead of Sharpe things could get more interesting] (CHI) Collins ($18M) Huerter ($18M) White ($12.9M) Buzelis ($5.5M) PICKS : Trail Blazers 2026 1st (protections), 2026 1st, 2027 swap, 2028 1st, 2029 swap, 2030 1st, 2031 swap, 2032 1st [looks like the Bulls are another team with all their FRPs plus one from POR with protections. Buzelis might be the highest upside young player they could realistically get for Giannis, but would be wild to trade him to the Bulls. Maybe he could sublet Counsell's place?] MEDIA WET DREAM NARRATIVE (AKA PLEASE NO) TIER (GSW) Green ($25M) Kuminga ($22M) Podziemski ($3.7M) PICKS : 2026 1st, 2027 swap, 2028 1st, 2029 swap, 2031 swap, 2032 1st [they've been trying to talk this one into existence but I don't see the Warriors having the necessary assets for what I'd deem a competitive offer anyway] (MIA) Herro ($31M) or Wiggins ($28.2M) plus Rozier ($26.6M) and Ware ($4.4M) PICKS : 2028 swap, 2029 1st, 2030 swap, 2031 1st, 2032 swap [another team that keeps coming up but also appears to have a pretty underwhelming collection of assets to realistically offer] (NYK) KAT ($53.1M) or Bridges ($24.9M) Hart ($19.5M) Robinson ($13M) PICKS : 2030 swap, 2032 swap [after trading their 2027, 2029, 2031 firsts to BKN (plus a swap in 2028) don't think the Knicks really have close to enough ammunition to make a competitive Giannis offer without getting creative and somehow re-shaping their roster for more future assets] (DAL) Davis ($54.1M) PICKS : 2026 1st, 2029 Lakers 1st, 2031 1st, 2032 swap [reunite Giannis with Kidd and give Cooper Flagg a superstar to play with while Davis get passed around again. Maybe could pry Max Christie ($7.7M) in the deal too as a young asset but would probably have to throw in some more to make the money work then.]

I think there is more room for Pratt in Nashville than there is for Lara with the current guys in the upper levels. At the moment I'd guess the weekly starts would break down something like... Catcher Quero (4) Wood (2) First Base Burke (4) Black (2) Second Base Seigler (4) Pratt (1) Jett (1) Shortstop Pratt (4) Jett (2) Third Base Wilken (4) Pratt (1) Seigler (1) Outfield Lockridge (5) Badoo (4) Berroa (4) Jett (3) Black (2) DH rotate Burke / Quero / Wilken / Black / Badoo / Berroa as needed Just too many OF for Lara to get enough time with the 40 Man guys ahead of him. Burke vs Adams should also be interesting. I lean Blake since he's older and had the blistering end to last year. Could see them having Luke repeat Biloxi to work on swing decisions kinda like they did with Jadher and Wisco last year. Pratt definitely didn't force the issue with his bat in Biloxi, but my guess is they'd prefer for him and Made to each get as much time at SS as possible still so he'll end up in Nashville.

Wilson is an interesting player for sure. Rode an extreme hit tool (128 AVG+ and 33 K+ were both 2nd among qualified hitters last year) to a 121 wRC+ last year despite a below average walk rate (62 BB+) and power profile (83 ISO+). Neither system (-14 DRS and -4 FRV) has really liked his defense at SS, so probably destined for 3B or 2B once Leo De Vries is ready. Already has 39th percentile sprint speed and -0.6 BSR for his career so probably isn't adding any value on the bases either. Kind of like if Luis Arraez started a little higher up the defensive spectrum. Prolly gonna need to keep hitting over .300 to have anything resembling surplus value if he doesn't develop some more power or patience into his mid/late twenties.

The lineup numbers use their opponents' performance during those same minutes on the floor as the baseline. Just for a range of comparison here are the primary lineups from some recent Bucks teams and NBA Champions during the Giannis Era. I split out regular season and postseason for some of the teams because they had impactful personnel changes... 2025-26 Bucks (+9.8 pts/100) KPJ | Rollins | AJG | Giannis | Turner [not many minutes together on account of injuries] 2024-25 OKC (+14.4 pts/100) SGA | Williams | Dort | Chet | Hartenstein 2023-24 BOS (+11.3 pts/100) Holiday | White | Brown | Tatum | Porzingis 2023-24 Bucks (+15.6 pts/100) Lillard | Beasley | Khris | Giannis | Brook [2nd best reg season lineup in the sample undone by injuries and coaching turmoil] 2022-23 DEN (+12.6 pts/100) Murray | KCP | MPJ | Gordon | Jokic 2022-23 Bucks (+12.0 pts/100) Jrue | Grayson | Khris | Giannis | Brook [Brook's return gives the Bucks a boost] 2021-22 GSW (+7.2 pts/100) REG SEA Curry | Poole | Wiggins | Green | Looney 2021-22 GSW (+19.8 pts/100) POSTSEA Curry | Klay | Wiggins | Green | Looney 2021-22 Bucks (+9.4 pts/100) Jrue | Grayson | Khris | Giannis | Portis [Brook back surgery so Bobby at the 5] 2020-21 Bucks (+8.2 pts/100) REG SEA Jrue | DDV | Khris | Giannis | Brook 2020-21 Bucks (+11.2 pts/100) POSTSEA Jrue | Khris | PJT | Giannis | Brook 2020-21 Bucks (+18.0 pts/100) POSTSEA Jrue | Patty C | Khris | PJT | Giannis [100 glorious minutes of Giannis at the 5] 2019-20 LAL (+12.2 pts/100) REG SEA Bradley | Green | LBJ | Davis | Javale 2019-20 LAL (+18.2 pts/100) POSTSEA LBJ | KCP | Green | Davis | Javale 2019-20 Bucks (+18.8 pts/100) Bledsoe | Wes | Khris | Giannis | Brook [best reg season lineup in sample got COVID'ed and Blesoe'd] 2018-19 TOR (+10.7 pts/100) Lowry | Green | Kawhi | Siakam | Ibaka 2018-19 Bucks (+6.0 pts/100) Bledsoe | Brogdon | Khris | Giannis | Brook [Giannis first MVP season with Bud on scene] 2017-18 GSW (+9.2 pts/100) REG SEA Curry | Klay | Durant | Green | Pachulia 2017-18 GSW (+23.0 pts/100) POSTSEA Curry | Klay | Iguodala | Durant | Green

In 2023-24 Lillard and Giannis were +10.0 points per 100 possessions on the floor together. When they were on the floor with Middleton it jumped up to +17.0 points per 100 possessions. But Giannis got hurt right before the playoffs. In 2024-25 after Middleton's body finally betrayed him for good, while Lillard and Giannis dealt with their own health issues missing 39 combined games, they dropped to +4.3 points per 100 possessions on the floor together. In limited minutes this season (again on account of injury) Giannis and Turner have been +9.1 points per 100 possessions on the floor together. Those two plus AJG, KPJ and Rollins are +9.8 so far this year as the five on the floor. The issues have been far more health related than fit related post-Championship.

The Brewers recent competitive window has essentially been open for seven full seasons now from 2018 thru 2025 with their 677 wins over that stretch 5th in MLB. Over the first seven seasons of the Dodgers run from 2013 to 2019 their 671 wins were the most in MLB, with a gap of 33 wins between them and CLE in second with 638 wins. They did not win the World Series during these seven seasons. They finally broke through with a WS win during the weirdified Pandemic season of 2020, but would need three more full seasons (& signing a generational superstar to a barely legal contract) in order to win their first full season World Series in their eleventh try. It took the most powerful organization in the game, with far more resources and built in advantages than the Brewers will ever dream of having, over a decade to win their first full season World Series. In that context it's hard for me to fault the Brewers for not winning one heading into Year Eight, coming off a franchise record in wins, with the best farm system in the game. Plateau? They're still just getting started.

In 1984 when Marino had his crazy season there were 615 TD to 584 INT over the entire NFL. Dan was +31 himself (48 TD | 17 INT) so the rest of the league was literally even up one to one on TD/INT ratio. In 1989 when Montana had his pinnacle West Coast Offense season the league was still at 582 TD to 559 INT with Joe Cool accounting for +18 of the differential personally at 26 TD | 8 INT. The next year in 1990 there is finally a little bit of separation beyond just one guy at 575 TD to 480 INT. In Favre's third MVP season (1997) it was a little better at 617 TD to 479 INT. By Manning's third MVP season (2005) the totals were a little higher at 644 TD to 506 INT but the ratio was actually down fractionally from 1997. Rodgers nutso 2011 (45 TD | 6 INT) sees the league add just over 100 touchdowns up to 745 TD while the interceptions remain static at 506. By the time Aaron wins his fourth MVP in 2021 the league has transformed to the tune of 840 TD versus 440 INT, with this past season seeing over twice as many TD (811) as INT (380). This bit of forward pass history from the NFL HOF website is kind of funny... "Many tweaks to the passing rules occurred over the years since the practice was legalized. The biggest may have been in 1933...That year the league made provisions to allow a forward pass from anywhere behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to the 5-yard buffer requisite...This change grew out of a controversial touchdown pass thrown by Chicago Bears fullback Bronko Nagurski in the 1932 indoor playoff game that decided the ’32 league title...Nagurski faked a run toward the line and then quickly threw a TD pass to Red Grange. The Spartans contested that Nagurski was not 5 yards behind the line when he fired the pass. The play stood, and the Bears later added a safety to put the final touches on a 9-0 victory...At the league meetings the next offseason, Spartans coach George “Potsy” Clark lobbied for a change in the rules to allow passes anywhere behind the line of scrimmage as he argued “because Nagurski will do it anyway!!”

I think Biggio had a better hit tool than it sounds like Jett is working with. At peak from 1992-99 Craig ran a 111 AVG+ and 84 K+ which is about the same as guys like Carlos Correa (113 AVG+ and 87 K+), Manny Machado (112 AVG+ and 84 K+), or Jeremey Pena (111 AVG+ and 87 K+) over the last few years. Even with all his speed and hustle, Jett has ran a pretty unremarkable .324 BABIP the last three years against minor league defenses on account of all the fly balls so I'd expect more of a mini-3TO kind of profile where he hopefully walks and hits for enough power to overcome a lower batting average.

There are certainly questions about the potential of the bat with Pratt, I was just providing some context to show that a slugging percentage under .350 isn't as bad as it sounds on the surface nor should it really be all that surprising for one of the youngest players in one of the most pitcher friendly leagues in the minors. A familiar comp for the shape Cooper's production might take could be old friend JJ Hardy in the years he didn't hit for power... 2005-06 Hardy 566 PA | 82 wRC+ | +16.0 DEF | 2.1 WAR 2009-10 Hardy 840 PA | 83 wRC+ | +23.4 DEF | 3.1 WAR 2014 Hardy 569 PA | 90 wRC+ | +17.9 DEF | 3.0 WAR 2016 Hardy 438 PA | 90 wRC+ | +7.6 DEF | 1.5 WAR I don't think Pratt will have quite as good a glove as JJ did (his +86 DRS at SS are 6th all time since they started tracking in 2003) but Cooper should be a much better asset on the bases (Hardy was -24.0 BSR for his career), projects to walk more (Hardy only had a 6.5 BB%), and is still young enough to figure out how to maybe tap into some 20 HR power a couple tree four years down the road like JJ eventually did for five of his seven seasons from age 24 to 30.

The average batter in the 2025 Southern League was 23.7 years old with a .340 slugging percentage. Cooper Pratt was 20 years old with a .348 slugging percentage and plus defense at SS. As a 21 year old in AA Brice Turang slugged .385 versus league averages of 24.5 years old and a .393 slugging percentage.

Fallen out of favor with whom? He's landed on multiple Top 100 lists so far this winter. Outside of 3 games at 2B during his first season on the complex Pratt has played exclusively SS throughout his minor league career with defense as his carrying tool. Jett has played mostly SS with some CF and 2B thrown in as well. In the likely scenario both are at Nashville to start the year I'd imagine Cooper will get four games a week at SS with the other two at 3B/2B, while Jett picks up those other two games at SS with a mix of CF/2B/maybe even some LF thrown in. They're really just two different prospects. Jett has the more advanced bat at the moment, and Cooper is more of legit SS defender. Chourio's 109 wRC+ at AA wasn't overly impressive (Pratt posted a 107 wRC+ last year) and it didn't do much to dim Jackson's shine because a 19 year old (or even a 20 year old like Cooper) holding their own in the Southern League is a pretty big deal. If Made only puts up a wRC+ in the 110's somewhere I'd imagine he'll still be regarded as one of the best prospects in MLB this time next year.

Here are some of Patrick's ranks last year among 127 pitchers with at least 100 IP... 119 IP (106th) | 115 K%+ (26th) | 96 BB%+ (78th) | 85 HR9+ (33rd) 85 ERA- (45th) | 85 FIP- (27th) | 2.6 rWAR (51st) | 2.6 fWAR (38th) Guess the worst thing about his performance last year would be a 96 xFIP- (46th) that thinks he got a little lucky at HR suppression, but he was also one of the more extreme flyball guys in MLB last year with a 116 FB%+ (20th) so inducing weak fly balls is ideally part of his profile which should result in better than average HR to flyball rates over the long haul. Patrick also had an atypical for the Brewers 108 BABIP+ last year which should likely see some positive regression in 2026.

Yeah, I definitely think a good amount of the credit the pitching lab gets comes down to elite defense. Shaving almost half an earned run per game, home and road, over the course of three years adds up fast. They aren't even playing in the margins anymore, they're swimming in the deep end. But at the same time it all works together. The Brewers identify pitchers they think they can get more out of in the lab, they have staff in place that communicates those changes into actionable results, then they presumably craft game plans around trying to induce favorable contact allowing the defense to do its thing.