sveumrules

I agree, the system must be comically deep because at the last round of voting (despite his impressive performance to date and some positive scouting reports) not a single poster of the 36 who cast a ballot asked to add him to the pool of candidates much less put him in their Top 20.

Looks like Chourio didn't need another 50 or 100 PA before figuring things out... thru first 112 PA at time of post 284/348/431 (122 wRC+) 8.9 BB% | 26.8 K% | 45.5 Swing% thru last 53 PA after post 400/415/869 (247 wRC+) 3.8 BB% | 18.9 K% | 48.0 Swing%

During the Thirty Team Era (1998 to present) there have been 4,002 individual starting pitcher seasons of at least 80 IP. Here are where some of Misio's current rate stats land on that leaderboard... 59 AVG+ (2nd) | 33 ERA- (3rd) | 56 WHIP+ (4th) | 41 FIP- (5th) | 181 K+ (13th) | 37 HR+ (27th) | 116 LOB+ (35th) The Brewers selected Misio with the 63rd pick in the 2022 Draft and signed him for a bonus of $2.35M. Here is what the pitchers who were drafted ahead of him and signed for similar or more money are up to so far this year... #3 Kumar Rocker ($5.2M) 65.2 IP of 3.56 ERA | 4.08 FIP in MLB #7 Cade Horton ($4.45M) #2 NL ROY in 2025, currently on IL #10 Gabriel Hughes ($4M) 31 IP of 6.97 ERA | 2.93 FIP in AAA #15 Dylan Lesko ($3.9M) 20 IP of 2.25 ERA | 4.58 FIP in A #20 Owen Murphy ($2.6M) 57 IP of 5.34 ERA | 5.89 FIP in AAA #22 Cooper Hjerper ($3.2M) Only 3 IP so far coming back from surgery #23 Brandon Barriera ($3.6M) 17 IP of 5.29 ERA | 5.34 FIP in A #28 Noah Schultz ($2.8M) 38 IP of 5.82 ERA | 4.76 FIP in MLB #34 Landon Sims ($2.3M) 24 IP of 4.81 ERA | 5.77 FIP in AA #35 JR Ritchie ($2.4M) 30 IP of 3.82 ERA | 5.16 FIP #39 Robby Snelling ($3M) 5 IP in MLB before landing on IL #47 Jackson Ferris ($3M) 31.2 IP of 7.11 ERA | 6.49 FIP in AAA

Was just looking at Juan Martinez earlier today and was like "woah, that's some pretty impressive performance between last year's second go around in the DSL and the start of his ACL this year." Then I remembered guys like Juan Ortuno and Demetrio Nadal and some more I'm surely forgetting (was Juan Baez one of these guys once too?) and at this point it's kinda like until they at least make it to Wisco carrying over the same encouraging traits its more something to keep an eye on than anything to get too excited about. Which might sound dismissive, but it's really just a testament to how long the road is for most of the seven figure international teenagers, much less the pop up guys who have to prove it stop after stop for at least half a decade. But yeah, that's also the one of the funnest (most fun?) things about following the system. With their recent dev record you kind of have to keep an eye on everyone that shows a glimpse of promise because they certainly are looking for talent in all corners and have proven adept at finding it.

Of Misio's thirteen starts since Opening Day he has had two on four days rest, nine on five days rest, and two on six days rest. If the past is any predictor of the future the Brewers will probably try to get him that extra day of rest, especially coming off a career high nine inning outing (even if it was a relatively low stress 95 pitches).

Because I'm The Miz...and I'm Awesome

Start with 50 Points. Add one point for each out recorded (+27) Add two points for each inning completed after the 4th (+10) Add one point for each strikeout (+15) Subtract two points for each hit allowed (-2) Subtract 4 for each ER, 2 for each UER, and 1 for each BB (0) Believe that gives Misio a Game Score of a nice even 100 for the evening. Here are some other Brewers pitchers' career high game scores I could find clicking through game logs... Burnes 091121 (95 GS) 8.0 IP | 0 ER | 0 H | 1 BB | 14 K Higuera 082687 (94 GS) 10.0 IP | 0 ER | 3 H | 2 BB | 10 K Sheets 051604 (94 GS) 9.0 IP | 1 ER | 3 H | 1 BB | 18 K Sabathia 083108 (93 GS) 9.0 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 3 BB | 11 K Wegman 070786 (91 GS) 11.0 IP | 0 ER | 4 H | 2 BB | 4 K Caldwell 091978 (89 GS) 9.0 IP | 0 ER | 4 H | 0 BB | 10 K Slaton 082384 (89 GS) 10.2 IP | 0 ER | 4 H | 3 BB | 6 K Nieves 041587 (89 GS) 9.0 IP | 0 ER | 0 H | 5 BB | 7 K Eldred 042393 (89 GS) 8.0 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 1 BB | 10 K Gallardo 062410 (89 GS) 9.0 IP | 0 ER | 5 H | 0 BB | 12 K Greinke 050912 (89 GS) 8.0 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 0 BB | 11 K Peralta 041319 (89 GS) 8.0 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 0 BB | 11 K Bosio 082887 (88 GS) 9.0 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 3 BB | 8 K Haas 080380 (88 GS) 9.0 IP | 0 ER | 3 H | 2 BB | 9 K Houser 090421 (88 GS) 9.0 IP | 0 ER | 3 H | 0 BB | 7 K Odell 052888 (87 GS) 8.1 IP | 0 ER | 1 H | 1 BB | 7 K Woodruff 092620 (87 GS) 8.0 IP | 0 ER | 2 H | 1 BB | 10 K

No doubt, I put what Sabathia did in 2008 right up there with like Bo Jackson and Andre the Giant as the most Mythical things I’ve ever witnessed in athletics. If Misio does it for a whole season (plus whatever might happen in the fall) it’s getting into real life Sidd Finch territory.

Justin Crawford is the son of a pretty good MLB player. He should have some finely tuned baseball instincts. He just threw that warning track fly ball in like there were one or no outs instead of two. Perfect encapsulation of the kind of pressure the Brewers apply to opposing pitchers / defenses.

Sabathia had a 39 ERA- | 56 FIP- during his Milwaukee stint in 2008. Misio had a 36 ERA- | 46 FIP- before tonight's dominance.

They've been flashing that most runs scored in MLB with two outs leaderboard up during the broadcast, so it got me curious about what other splits the Brewers might be doing well in this year... Hitters (with two outs) 837 PA (12th) | .750 OPS (3rd) | 136 R (2nd) Pitchers (with two outs) 780 PA (29th) | .626 OPS (1st) | 78 R (1st) [as good as the hitters have been at scoring runs right before making the third out, the pitchers have been even better at nailing down that last out of the inning. I'm not too sure what the baseline is, but I have to imagine a +58 run differential with two outs after only playing 66 total games is pretty good. Only four teams have cleared a +58 run differential on the season so far and the Mariners in 5th at +26 aren't particularly close] Hitters (first pitch) 270 PA (27th) | 1.064 OPS (1st) | 15 HR (15th) [the Brewers haven't looked to ambush often but when they do watch out. Those 15 HR represent 26.3% of the team total to this point while the 270 PA represent only 10.4% of the team total] Hitters (vs lefty starters) 696 PA (16th) | .759 OPS (6th) | 98 R (6th) [even missing two of their best righty bats for a chunk of the season the Brewers have performed well against lefty starters with a 13 W - 5 L (.722 W%) record so far] Hitters (with two strikes) 1,349 PA (18th) | .508 OPS (17th) | 127 R (t-3rd) Pitchers (with two strikes) 1,371 PA (13th) | .458 OPS (6th) | 83 R (4th) [despite not having that many PA or that impressive of an OPS with two strikes, the Brewers have gone ahead and scored the third most runs anyway. No surprise the staff with the highest K% in MLB fares well once they get to two strikes. Again, that +44 run differential with two strikes would be 5th in MLB on its own] Hitters (runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs) 179 PA (2nd) | .938 OPS (8th) | 135 R (1st) [think back to all those times the Brewers didn't score the runner from third with less than two outs, even with all those failures they still have scored more runs than any other MLB team in that situation] Hitters (late and close) 402 PA (13th) | .691 OPS (21st) | 64 R (4th) [another split like with two strikes where the Brewers haven't been particularly prolific or proficient, but have ended up efficient anyway] Hitters (with 2 outs & RISP) 351 PA (1st) | .793 OPS (1st) | 114 R (1st) Pitchers (with 2 outs & RISP) 262 PA (29th) | .541 OPS (1st) | 59 R (2nd) [we already know the Brewers have been one of thee best teams with RISP on both sides of the ball going all the way back to 2023, so of course it makes sense when you combine that with their two out dominance that they come out looking really good here too]

No doubt he’s been bad or absent during the last two postseasons but I kind of look at that as extra credit. Could see dinging him from like a B in regular season value down to like to a B-/C+. Being DH only limits the roster flexibility some for sure, but as long as he’s putting up 500 PA with a 120 wRC+ as one of the few DH that isn’t a big negative on the bases he’s at least earning his money.

Yelich's extension started in 2022. From 2022 to 2025 he was paid $88M after deferrals for 2,262 PA of 123 wRC+ and 11.4 WAR, that is easily in the black considering how much teams have been paying for wins in free agency recently. The Brewers also won the 5th most games in MLB from 2022 to 2025 including three Division Titles and a trip to the NLCS. How hasn't it worked out well?

Since coming back for real on May 17th Yelich almost has that Garrett Mitchell career production shape... 30.1 K% | .397 BABIP | .163 ISO 34.5 K% | .385 BABIP | .172 ISO One small note though, Christian's ground ball rate has been trending down hard from 73.7% over his first 60 PA of the season to 47.5% over his 103 PA since returning to stay on May 17th (considerably lower than his career 56.0 GB%). We'll see where it settles in as the season goes along, but he has been getting the ball off the ground quite a bit more lately. The Brewers definitely don't seem to be as ground ball averse as the rest of baseball or the analytic community either. Going back to their turnaround beginning on May 18th of last year they've averaged an MLB best 5.30 R/G (Yankees are 2nd at 5.07 R/G) while running a 45.6 GB% with only PIT (45.2%) and TBR (45.1%) nearby over their last 182 games. Over these last 40 games since April 26th where their 28 W - 12 L is the best in MLB they've leaned into the ground balls even more heavily with a 47.6 GB% (Padres are second down at 45.2 GB%) which hasn't stopped them from putting up an MLB best 115 wRC+ or topping the league in runs per game by over three tenths of a run during that stretch.

Four glaring weaknesses + six glaring strengths = a 116 wRC+ so far this year. With only 649 PA spread over five calendar years there is plenty of time for Mitchell to still improve upon his weaknesses. Considering he has already put up 4.2 WAR over those 649 PA with all his weaknesses there is quite possibly further upside to be tapped into if he can stay healthy long enough to get consistent PAs.

The "old" Lara was extremely young. When he put up a 110 wRC+ at Age 18 between the Carolina and Midwest Leagues he did so against pitchers three to five years older than him on average. When he put up a 94 wRC+ at Age 19 in the Midwest League he did so against pitchers four years older than him on average. When he put up a 116 wRC+ at Age 20 in the Southern League he did so against pitchers four to five years older than him on average. Lara had a 15.8 K% those three years. Average K% for the leagues he played in were 2023 Carolina League (25.3%), 2023-24 Midwest League (23.6%), and 2025 Southern League (23.5%) so his K rate was lower than league average all the way up the ladder.

Vaughn 176 wRC+ Bauers 148 wRC+ Chourio 143 wRC+ Turang 139 wRC+ Yelich 121 wRC+ Mitchell 116 wRC+ Contreras 108 wRC+ The Brewers have seven effective regulars. League average for a #9 hitter is a 76 wRC+ which Hamilton (90 wRC+) clears easily. The evidence is pretty clear, the Brewers have scored the 3rd most runs in baseball while playing at a 100 Win pace thus far. Both of those numbers are ahead of my personal expectations so hard for me to be too disappointed.

Outside of the current Division Leaders it looks like the Phillies (75.1% on FanGraphs | 86.0% on PECOTA) have the best playoff odds among the other NL Contenders. PECOTA still believes in the Cubs (71.5%) more than FanGraphs does (40.0%). Cardinals are kind of the inverse with their 47.3% Playoff Odds the 5th highest among NL teams on FanGraphs, but their 24.3% on PECOTA is 9th in the NL. Pirates have the best run differential of the bunch at +21 while the Nationals (+8) are a few ahead of STL before getting into the less than zero contenders like CHI (-1), ARI (-14), SDP (-16), or even PHI (-17) still reeling from their slow start. For me personally I think the Braves, Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies look like they will take four spots one way or another. That leaves two spots up for grabs amongst six teams that are currently over .500 so I'd probably put them all between 30% and 35% since I don't see too much difference between them. STL prolly closer to 35% just because they've played themselves into a three game cushion over the other five teams to this point.

The $50 fan probably never sits in the seats that are being repurposed, and will still have 40K seats to choose from every game. Pretty much every road stadium already has these sections, heck watching the Nashville highlights they have a section like this is AAA. The Brewers will continue to be one of the best values in MLB with plentiful tickets available for most games, now they'll just have an additional revenue stream too.

If the Brewers lose today it will drop them to 8 W - 5 L (.615 W%) on this dreaded 13 games in 13 days stretch (with three on a mountain and three on the moon). That tracks pretty closely with the 33 W - 20 L (.622 W%) record they had entering the series. Obviously would be great to win every game every day, but every team starts the season with at least fifty some losses guaranteed over the next six months and today is probably another one of those games.

Since Yelich returned on May 12th (giving the Brewers six players for five lineup spots) the Brewers are 19 W - 8 L. Of those 27 games, 21 have been against a right handed starting pitcher. With the Brewers going a perfect 6 W - 0 L against the six lefty starters they faced since 0512 (so much for those southpaw struggles) that leaves a 13 W - 8 L record in those 21 games against right handed starters. Vaughn has started ten of those games versus RHP (with a 72 wRC+ vs RHP since returning from his hamate injury) with the Brewers going 5 W - 5 L in those ten games. That leaves an 8 W - 3 L record in the eleven games Vaughn has not started against RHP since 0512.

It's not a straight up comparison because Contreras is still playing his Age 28 season, but as things currently stand there have been forty primary catchers to get at least 1,500 PA from age 24 to age 28 since 2005 (the first year someone was suspended for PEDs) with William coming in at a 124 wRC+ (7th) and 18.5 WAR (10th) on that leaderboard. Assuming health he should pass all of Yasmani Grandal (19.4 WAR), Miguel Montero (19.5 WAR), and Yadier Molina (19.8 WAR) by season's end to land in 7th place but would need to go on some kind of tear to catch (punintentional) Cal Raleigh in 6th place with 22.9 WAR. Since we already have him under team control for his age 29 season, let's see how some of those age 24 to age 28 catchers did from the age 30 and onward seasons that would be potentially covered if William were willing to sign an extension, or if the Brewers have to win a FA bidding war. Buster Posey 24-28 (142 wRC+ | 32.5 WAR) 30-34 (116 wRC+ | 15.0 WAR) Brian McCann 24-28 (118 wRC+ | 30.6 WAR) 30-35 (98 wRC+ | 11.9 WAR) Jonathan Lucroy 24-28 (113 wRC+ | 29.1 WAR) 30-35 (90 wRC+ | 4.6 WAR) Joe Mauer 24-28 (134 wRC+ | 26.2 WAR) 30-35 (109 wRC+ | 12.3 WAR) Russell Martin 24-28 (104 wRC+ | 24.9 WAR) 30-36 (107 wRC+ | 23.2 WAR) Yadier Molina 24-28 (101 wRC+ | 19.8 WAR) 30-39 (97 wRC+ | 26.9 WAR) Miguel Montero 24-28 (113 wRC+ | 19.5 WAR) 30-34 (89 wRC+ | 7.7 WAR) Yasmani Grandal 24-28 (111 wRC+ | 19.4 WAR) 30-35 (107 wRC+ | 11.8 WAR) JT Realmuto 24-28 (108 wRC+ | 17.5 WAR) 30-35 (106 wRC+ | 18.0 WAR) Catcher attrition rates are pretty brutal. Out of the nine best recent comps only three (Yadi, Martin, JTR) have produced into their thirties enough to justify the kind of contract William should eventually get. Posey would probably be right around a break even point. A couple guys further down that age 24 to age 28 leaderboard in Victor Martinez (124 wRC+ | 12.6 WAR from age 30 to 37) and William's brother Willson (133 wRC+ | 13.9 WAR so far age 30 to 34) continued to rake into their thirties but both moved out from behind the plate too. I wouldn't be opposed to extending Contreras if he is willing (especially if the new CBA somehow makes that more manageable for clubs at the bottom of the Economic Spectrum), but giving what will likely be a top two or three catcher contract of all time approaching or exceeding $200M isn't without risk.

I agree, but the A's are making progress.

Jackson has been much better in the corners (+14 DRS | +7 FRV in 1,795 innings) than in center (-4 DRS | +2 FRV in 803 innings) to this point. If they are indeed extending Lara it's a pretty good sign they believe he is at least a similar calibre defender to Jackson in the corners, but in CF instead. The closest comp for me given their respective size, plate discipline, speed, and defense is Frelick. Obviously off to bad start this year, so maybe not the most popular comp but here's the body of work (among 125 players min. 600 PA as OF since 2023)... 1,540 PA (26th) | 5.9 WAR (35th) 13.7 K% (7th) | .099 ISO (119th) .264 AVG (29th) | .332 OBP (36th) +7.5 BsR (22nd) | 97 wRC+ (81st) +27 DRS | +17 FRV (both 3rd in RF) So despite being a below average overall hitter with some of the worst power in the pool, Sal has still put up solid starter numbers on account of getting on base, running the bases and fielding well. But why extend that guy? Well, when Sal was Lara's age he was still at Boston College, it would take him until the end of the following season before he got to AAA and put up the kind of numbers Lara is putting up now. Luis is also a switch hitter for whatever that is or isn't worth. But the big one might just be that Lara sounds like a surefire CF. For his career Sal has a -14.1 run positional adjustment playing predominantly RF. Playing all his innings in CF instead of mostly RF would have been like a +5.4 positional adjustment instead. Add those two extra wins onto Sal's total and his 7.9 WAR would move him up to 22nd on that 2023 to present OF leaderboard. Essentially boils down to his age relative to Sal & being a switch hitter should hopefully give him a higher ceiling at the plate, while his scouting reports as a top end defensive CF should give him a higher floor.

I too do not see the quoted passage anywhere in the article. When I CTRL-F "Megill" the only hits are in the comments.