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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I wasn't trying to compare the two as players at all just the unnecessary nature of the extensions they received. As for the injuries, a couple have been fluky but so were quite a few of Sheets injuries. Fluke injuries do not preclude future injuries. I understand the argument that if Tulo continues to produce as he has in the past that his potential cost in FA would far exceed what the Rockies just gave him, but with that potential FA date 4 seasons away sooooo much can happen to change the dynamic of the situation. If I'm gonna spend 100 million plus I want as much data as possible available so I don't have to rely on flimsy assumptions. Look at Sizemore. He put up four consecutive seasons of 5+ fWAR at a premium defensive position from 2005-2008, at which point he had 3 years and an option left on his deal just like pre-extension Tulo. Say the Indians give him the same extension after 08 that Tulo just got. So far they would have injury shortened 09 and 10 with 8 years and over 100 million left to go for a player who has a lot of uncertainty as to whether he will ever be a 5+ WAR player again.
  2. sveumrules
    Lawrie, Jeffress and one of Hecky/Peralta would be a good starting point I think. If we needed to throw in one more guy maybe see if KC would want Gomez or Parra as high upside change of scenery types. KC gets one of the top hitting prospects in the minors to add to their stable, one of the most electric arms in the minors fresh off an impressive AFL performance and a solid mid to back of rotation type prospect in Wily or Kyle. I wouldn't include Rogers or Odorizzi just because I think they're the two best bets we have to produce another YO caliber arm.
  3. sveumrules
    The obvious difference between Raines and Rusty Staub is about 800 stolen bases. The control group I like to look at for Raines is Henderson, Brock and Morgan. All three were dominant basestealers and top of the order hitters in their time. I'd like to include Collins, Carey and Wagner as they're all top ten career SB and HOF but they played before CS were tracked so you can't really get an accurate success rate. Listed below are OBP/SLG, OPS+ and SB/CS%. Who's who? 392/427 | 132 | .809 401/419 | 127 | .808 385/425 | 123 | .847 343/410 | 109 | .753
  4. sveumrules
    I'd vote for everyone Jim said and add Tim Raines. Jack Morris I could go either way on, he had a long above average career with some postseason excellence which always seems to be worth a little extra. Hall of Very Good for guys like Murphy and Mattingly who had great peaks but not much else. Walker because he played in Coors so long pre-humidor and didn't quite play enough to rack up the counting stats. Edgar for being a DH so long. Trammell and McGriff for never quite being the top guy at their position. Parker was probably a better pure hitter than Dawson but loses out in the speed, defense and sympathy departments. As for the Steroids Wing I don't think McGwire or Palmeiro ever make it in. Juan Gone had serious power even when he was young and skinny but definitely bulked up after injury filled 94/95 seasons. I can't recall Bagwell ever having any formal connections to PED but he always seemed like an obvious one to me based on his physique and teammates (Clemens, Pettite, Caminiti).
  5. sveumrules
    Seems almost as necessary as the Howard extension. Good thing Tulo has no injury history to speak of.
  6. sveumrules
    Sorry TooLive, the blue font wouldn't work.
  7. sveumrules
    Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette unveils his ballot... 1st | Roy Halladay 2nd | Paul Maholm 3rd | James McDonald 4th | Joel Hanrahan 5th | Zach Duke
  8. sveumrules
    The Mariners need some offense. Yo for King Felix straight up? Yo can DH on days he doesn't pitch.
  9. sveumrules
    BRef uses Total Zone for their defensive component while fangraphs uses UZR which accounts for the discrepancy.
  10. sveumrules
    Are now available on fangraphs. Some notable triple slashes and innings pitched/FIPs below. Weeks 257/358/444 Hart 272/332/484 Braun 310/372/551 Fielder 276/396/541 McGehee 282/339/451 Cain 279/345/379 Lucroy 257/329/364 Escobar 272/318/364 Gomez 258/311/363 Gamel 287/359/469 Gallardo 190/3.34 Wolf 229/4.43 Narvy 180/4.49 Axford 66/2.75
  11. sveumrules
    In the article Rosenthal mentions Vin Mazzaro. Bleh. Oakland is lauded for their young pitching but I'm not all that impressed. Anderson is great but has a Sheets like injury history. Gonzalez has a curveball and that's about it. Cahill is the ultimate example of the follies of ERA. Braden threw el perfecto but is a middle of the rotation guy at best.
  12. sveumrules
    I love Dunn and given the fanlove 3TO guys have had in the past playing in Milwaukee think he would be a perfect fit if Prince were to be traded. However I feel like I recall him at one point or another saying something about not liking the batter's eye at Miller Park, though you'd never be able to tell from his 988 OPS in 551 career PAs at the Keg.
  13. sveumrules
    First, let's make some assumptions. I feel like 5 WAR is a pretty safe bet for the Prince. That's worth about 20 million right there and lets say he comes in at 15 million in arby, so you've got about 5 million in surplus value. Casey is a little trickier. I think his true talent level is about 3 WAR. So over 4 years you get 12 WAR which is worth about 48 million. How much is Casey going to make over this time, though? Using the 40/60/80 arby model I get a total of about 32 million (.5/4.5/7/10) which puts his surplus at 16 million. It would seem like Casey has more surplus value, but that's not the whole picture. Prince's floor is probably higher than Casey's ceiling at this point. Prince has a longer track record of greater success while being two years younger. He is a HUGE (literally) LH slugger. He is only a one year commitment. Casey is cheap the next couple years. He plays a more premium defensive position. But he also has more uncertainty about his production moving forward, it's easier to be confident about a 1 year vs a 4 year projection. It obviously depends on what the trading team's needs are but I still think Fielder will net better offers than McGehee this offseason. Hows about you?
  14. sveumrules
    The last time Hart played more than 40 games at 1B was at High Desert in 2002. Braun clearly does not belong in the infield. McGehee's lack of range hurts him (or rather, the pitching staff) but overall I think he is fairly solid and the best defender of the three. I also think the Brewers are past the point of moving their established MLB players all over the diamond, thus Gamel at 1B.
  15. sveumrules
    Doug was rebuffed at 4/48 if I recall correctly before dealing El Caballo. He had put up about 42 million in value his first three years in HOU so another league averagish year would have gotten him there. 2010 did indeed happen though. Still, it seems Doug did a pretty decent job of assessing Lee's value. At quick glance they seem to have almost as much payroll coming off the books as we do going into 2011 with the jettisoning of Oswalt and Berkman. Curious to see just how exactly Wade manages to bungle it up.
  16. sveumrules
    Too late for Madison I think. Maybe after last year when Bumgarner's stock was down due to decreased velocity and Fielder would've been more than a one year rental, but at this point 5 years of Bumgarner>>>1 year of Fielder. Plus you gotta figure they'll overpay Huff for his career outlier, after all it is Sabean wearing the captain's hat.
  17. sveumrules
    Seven times in MLB postseason history a pitcher has gone at least 7 IP, 10 K and 0 BB. Four times it was Cliff Lee.
  18. sveumrules
    Over slot IS part of the problem, though. The primary problem is the lack of a NFL style combine where these guys can be poked, prodded and given comprehensive physicals. At the same time given the nature of the MLB draft this would be much more difficult to set up than it is in the NFL or NBA. That aside, had we offered slot and Covey been willing to accept he could have been signed (and therefore undergone a physical) within days of the draft & not two months later. Would that have effected his diagnosis at all? I don't know, I'm not a doctor. In the end I find it hard to fault Melvin in any way for the Covey situation and it would seem to be more on Seid than anyone else if someone in the FO were to blame. The MLB draft is obviously broken in a number of ways and is almost wholly to blame for the Covey outcome. While some of the issues are a lot bigger and harder to correct than others, it seems like all the top prospects undergoing a MLB sanctioned physical at some point in the week(s) leading up to the draft would be a pretty easy fix in the next CBA.
  19. sveumrules
    The only problem most of the Japanese players have had is from LMOHS, Large Market Over Hype Syndrome. Johjima put up back to back 3+WAR seasons as a catcher and then fell of at age 32. A catcher? Falling off at age 32? WEIRD. Kendall's 2.3 WAR in 2008 is our best of the fangraphs era, for the sake of comparison. I don't think any responsible individual ever predicted Matsui to hit 45 bombs. While obviously not meant to roam the grass, he has managed to hit the ball well enough to still put up 5 league average or better seasons (OK, he missed by .1 WAR this year) despite getting killed by his own glove and positional adjustments. As for Dice K, he would have been our second best starter this past year (not saying much I know) and has held his own in the AL East 3 of his 4 seasons stateside. If he would waive his no trade clause to come here I'm sure Boston would lurve send him and some $$$ to us for a year of the Prince. Fukudome is a Cub. If we sign a Japanese pitcher this offseason I'd prefer it to be Kuroda but I have a feeling we'd have to offer him a Wolfian 3rd year just to get him to answer the phone.
  20. sveumrules
    If the market for Fielder is going to be as weak as many are predicting I'd rather keep him than trade him for Ervin Santana or Gavin Floyd, and try to acquire pitching elsewhere that's for sure. Being a Boras client in a walk year and having his bizarre alternating merely good/great yearly trend (wOBA 06-10 354/417/370/420/380) I think the Prince is in line for MVP caliber offensive prodcution in 2011. If you can extend Weeks (say at a similar price as Hart) and deal some combination of Lawrie, and 2 of Peralta/Rivas/Heckathorn/Scarpetta/Kentrail for Greinke and Kila I think we can afford to do it as all the positions outside of 1B would be (theoretically) locked up through at least 2013 in house and it would leave us plenty of time to draft/develop a couple impact bats. If KC insisted on one of Rogers/Jeffress/Odorizzi to be included I'd tell them to call back some other time. From the KC side a young offensive core of Moustakas, Hosmer, Lawrie, Myers & Colon is pretty ridiculous. If we could get anything of value for McGehee at all he would be the one I'd most like to move as we have a seemingly capable replacement in Gamel and I think he (and Hart) are the most likely regression candidates but unfortunately I don't think his trade value around the league will match up with our FO's assessment of his worth.
  21. sveumrules
    If you want players to walk and hit for power you have to live with the strikeouts. There's only one Pujols out there to the best of my knowledge.
  22. sveumrules
    I'm flattered, ilovebeer. I have led my fantasy team to back to back titles so I am a "proven winner". As long as it isn't a retread I'm AOK.
  23. sveumrules
    Ackley is 2 years older and played college baseball in a very strong conference. He has "power potential" but currently is OBP>SLG. His advanced approach flies at AA, but if the power doesn't start to show up he's going to get challenged more and more in the zone. It's one thing to rack up BBs against guys who are still trying to command their stuff in AA, but I see him as someone who is going to need to have a very high BABIP and be a plus defender to have significant MLB value. Lawrie is younger, grew up playing baseball in Canada and has already shown what kind of power he possesses. If he continues to hit with power he will see less and less pitches in the zone. I understand his defense knocks him down a bit and he is probably going to end up in a corner somewhere long term. If you're asking me to pick between two comparable prospects who (currently, at least) play the same position I'll take the guy who is 2 years younger and has already shown plus power across two levels every time. It just seems to me that oftentimes BA rates prospects using these criteria in the order listed; draft position/organization/what they've actually done between the chalk and walls.
  24. sveumrules
    Ackley over Lawrie is a total joke. All Ackley has over Lawrie is walk rate and presumably defense. Plus Ackley's walk rate is going to decline as he moves up and teams realize the power isn't there, while Lawrie's will likely increase as he is two years younger and already has more power than Ackley can ever dream of developing.
  25. sveumrules
    Don't rule out OAK. They've taken chances on one year rentals the last couple years (Holliday, Sheets) and have a serious lack of power. Oh wait, Prince is too fat for Beane. Forget I said anything.
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