sveumrules

Often mentioned potential offseason target Yoan Moncada placed on the 10 Day IL today with a thumb sprain. He has hit 190/370/286 (105 wRC+) with a 29.6 K% through his first 27 PA with the Angels.

Fun Fact? On account of having one sac fly but zero walks or HBP so far, Jackson currently has a batting average (.315) higher than his OBP (.309). Early season statistical anomalies aside, here is a link to the best Age 21 seasons since 1970. Will be fun to see where Jackson ends up in that list after his 3.9 WAR last year came in 9th among Age 20 seasons since 1970. Interesting coincidence? 9th place on the Age 21 leaderboard is 2024 Jackson Merrill with 5.3 WAR.

Yeah, FanGraphs playoff odds have already started migrating some of the projected Wins and Division% upwards… MARCH 14 CHC: 84.0 W | 41.0% winDIV MIL: 80.8 W | 21.2% winDIV STL: 79.0 W | 14.2% winDIV CIN: 78.3 W | 11.8% winDIV PIT: 78.2 W | 11.9% winDIV TODAY CHC: 85.4 W | 51.5% winDIV MIL: 81.9 W | 25.5% winDIV STL: 78.2 W | 11.1% winDIV PIT: 76.6 W | 7.1% winDIV CIN: 75.4 W | 4.9% winDIV

Nestor is a FA after the year, don’t think he punts on his elbow before it falls completely off. He’ll get this PRP, take some time to rest/rehab (& play with the baby), then try to come back strong down the stretch so he can hopefully end the year “healthy” and effective to set himself up the best he can for the winter.

During the 2024 season the Brewers were 6th in runs scored per game and 5th in ERA across all of MLB. In the seven games since the calendar flipped to April the Brewers are 8th in runs scored per game and 3rd in ERA across all of MLB.

Clarke has struck out in 142 of his 403 PAs since arriving in Nashville. That 35.2 K% is 153rd out of 156 batters with at least 400 PAs in AAA since the start of last year. For his AAA career Clarke is at a 12.2 BB% | 35.2K% | .211 ISO. Out of the leadoff spot since 2022 Schwarber is at 14.9 BB% | 29.3 K% | .270 ISO. They are the same kind of hitter, but Schwarber walks more, strikes out less and hits for way more power facing MLB pitchers than Wes has versus AAA arms. Schwarber's production has added up to a 130 wRC+ out of the leadoff spot since 2022, Clarke's production has added up to a 105 wRC+ in the crazy offensive environs of the International League.

Turang’s first career HR vs a lefty in MLB.

Reece must have sensed us typing about him and singled just now to get off the schneid.

Holy onslaught for Carolina. 14 runs, 20 hits thru top of eight. Bitonti 5 for 5 with a walk, three doubles and five RBI. Adamczewski 4 for 5 with a walk and five RBI. Payne 4 for 5 with a double and walk. Nadal and Walling combined 0 for 11 though. Melvin Hernandez (3.0 IP | 2 H | 1 BB | 3 K), Bryan Rivera (2.1 IP | 4 BB | 5 K) and Miles Langhorne (1.2 IP | 3 K) put up zeroes over the first seven frames and Jack Seppings just put up a 1-2-3 eighth inning.

Yup, 21.2 avg age for the Brewers pitchers is tied with HOU for youngest in Carolina League.

Sad indeed. They said on the news that Henry Blanco was at the club earlier in the evening but left before the collapse.

Looks like BRef has the Cubs hitters as the 2nd oldest (21.3 avg age) in the Carolina League and the Brewers hitters as the 2nd youngest (19.8 avg age).

Agree that Priester's floor is higher by virtue of already having made MLB starts, having a multi-pitch arsenal, and being more of a traditional starter's build. I still give Henderson the nod on ceiling though just because of the strike out stuff (best K% in all of MiLB min. 150 IP last two years). Using recent Brewers as imperfect comps I'd say Logan is closer to Freddy as five and dive high strikeout kind of starter where Quinn is more like Adrian Houser in the groundball specialist mode. Going back to 2021, there are 117 pitchers in MiLB with at least 350 IP and Priester's 53.0 GB% is tied for 8th in that sample so he really is top notch at getting grounders. Unfortunately a guy like Connor Thomas (53.9 GB%) being a couple spots higher on that same leaderboard is an example that not all grounders are created equally.

I’d probably put him in the 40+ tier as a “stuff-ier” version of Patrick. Maybe could see him as a 45 if he’d gotten some better results in his MLB looks.

Guessing that @Brock Beauchamp will be posting a new prospect voting thread coming up here shortly with the minor league season(s) kicking off and the Yophery Rodriguez trade shaking things up a bit yesterday. In the meantime, I was trying to somewhat succinctly re-calibrate my own personal rankings with everything we've learned (and some things we've surely forgotten) over the winter and here at the outset between spring training, level placements, injuries, and over-reactions to way too small of samples. So with all that said, here's what I've got. Who did I miss? How would you break things down? 60 FV (2) Jacob Misiorowski | Jesus Made [Two Highest Ceilings In The System] 50 FV (5) Cooper Pratt | Jeferson Quero | Logan Henderson | Braylon Payne | Luis Pena [Best Remaining Combinations of Upside and Floor] 45 FV (2) Robert Gasser | Craig Yoho [High Floor, Limited Ceiling, Close Proximity Pitcher Mini-Tier] 40+ FV (9) Chad Patrick | KC Hunt | Bryce Meccage | Bishop Letson | Luke Adams | Eric Bitonti | Mike Boeve | Josh Adamczewski | Jose Anderson [No Doubt Top 20 System Guys For Me] 40 FV (17) Jack Hostetler | Manuel Rodriguez | Carlos Rodriguez | Brett Wichrowski | Tyler Black | Ernesto Martinez Jr. | Brock Wilken | Blake Burke | Jadher Areinamo | Caleb Durbin | Juan Baez | Luis Lara | Kenny Fenelon | Brailyn Antunez | Luis Corobo | Juan Ortuno | Josh Knoth [Fighting It Out For Last Couple Spots in The Top 20 Depending on the Day]

It’s not just AAA unfortunately. Biloxi has now #2 OF prospect in the org Luis Lara (who should probably be repeating Wisco after a 95 wRC+ there last year), Jheremy Vargas (who should definitely be repeating Wisco after an 80 wRC+ there last year & has mostly been an infielder), and minor league free agent Bladimir Restituyo. Eric Brown Jr has been getting looks as an outfielder and Dylan O’Rae will probably be in the mix once he’s healthy too. I think the inclusion of Yophery was jarring for some because the OF depth is so thin. Payne is the only legit OF prospect we have at an affiliate and he’s 18 in Carolina. Not really a pressing need with five varying degrees of proven guys under long term control at the MLB level plus Collins as a fine depth option (and maybe even Black getting more time on the grass once he’s back), but the minor league outfield situation is definitely in an ebb state currently.

That's the (insert Brewers payroll estimate of your preference here) dollar question for sure. Going back to 1998 (first year with 30 teams) there are 780 individual full team pitching seasons. 2023 whole staff ERA-FIP of -0.48 ranks 20th on that list and the 2024 whole stafff ERA-FIP of -0.54 is tied for 10th. 2023 bullpen WPA of +11.73 ranks 7th on that list and the 2024 bullpen WPA of +13.14 is 4th. I thought they were due for major regression in both areas coming into 2024 and they somehow managed to better their already ridiculous results from 2023. I'm expecting regression again this year, but still hoping they can come in around say a -0.40 ERA-FIP gap and something like +6 bullpen WPA. But yeah, ultimately if your success depends too much on shaving a half run off your FIP and posting +10 bullpen WPA seasons...that's a pretty tight rope to walk year after year after year.

Yeah, I think that’s the crux of it. As much as it sucks to give up the pick/pool money & Yophery, I think many would be more sympathetic towards the exchange if we were getting back someone who had at least shown some success at the MLB level beyond the five good starts Priester has scattered on his resume. Stings extra to give up that package for someone who still comes with quite a bit of uncertainty themself.

Right. Sounds like we'll have a pretty good idea what the Brewers have in mind for Priester starting in the Colorado series. With him last pitching on April 3rd should be lined up for Wednesday or Thursday. Red Sox side of the deal will take a couple two tree years to start to materialize at the MLB level on even the most accelerated timeline. If they take a high school guy with the pick could be half a decade plus down the road yet. If Priester can throw around 100 some innings of league average-ish work this year I'd say we're off to a decent start anyways.

Longenhagen write up from FanGraphs... "The Red Sox augmented some of Priester’s pitch usage after they acquired him, as he used a cutter and curveball mix against lefties and sinker/slider mix against righties. To say his changeup took a back seat to the other pitches would be an understatement — it’s in the trunk at this point. It has put Priester in better position to succeed and be a good team’s no. 4/5 starter. Is that enough to cough up a late first round pick, which is essentially what Milwaukee did here? There are somewhat disparate opinions about the upcoming draft class. I think it’s slightly better than average in the 50-75 range; the tier of player you’d find in a typical second round extends into the third. That sort of depth doesn’t really have an impact on pick 33, but the Brewers’ draft picks are valuable to them because they’re in a smaller market and need to grow their own talent, and their dev group is good at doing exactly that. That’s also part of why this trade should excite Red Sox fans. Boston’s dev group has been sensational since Craig Breslow arrived and now they get to apply that magic to another first round talent in the near future. Rodriguez is a fine lower-level outfield prospect. He isn’t super toolsy or projectable even though he’s very young, but he has advanced feel for the strike zone and good (if awkward looking) plate coverage. He can spray pitches from foul line to foul line with his punchy all-fields swing, and he projects as a complementary corner outfielder (he’s fast but isn’t a skilled center field defender) with roughly 45-grade contact and power. The main return in this trade is absolutely the draft pick."

This interview from spring gives a pretty good summary. “The cutter is getting better, but more than anything it’s been the velocity piece,” Priester said of his recent developmental strides. “We’re trying to see that trend upwards, and hold throughout games. I want to be 96-plus with the sinker, and then let everything else complement that pitch.” Priester pointed to the change of scenery when asked if he truly feels ready to become a consistent big-league starter. “I definitely do,” he said. “I’ve had a lot of experience the past two years, parts of them in the big leagues, and since the transition — being traded over here — I’ve been helped a lot. I’ve been encouraged to dive into the things I’m really good at. I’ve been encouraged to not change as much. That kind of reasoning — a lot of can-dos — has resulted in some freedom on the mound. That’s where I feel I can thrive. I’m kind of seeing it all come together.”

Red Sox positionals are stacked at MLB with Mayer/Anthony chilling in AAA as depth. Between Yoph & the Comp pick looks like BOS was prioritizing future value over any kind of present need.

Lower than that I’d say looking at this recent article on prospect outcomes at FanGraphs. Yophery was a 40+ FV on their midseason list (2025 list isn’t out yet). Looking at the table in the article a 45 FV hitter had a 51% washout rate.

Priester has run some pretty heavy groundball rates north of 50%. Hard not to think of old friend Adrian Houser. All told he put up 523 IP of 94 ERA- | 97 FIP- from 2019-23 which shook out to around 6 WAR. Unfortunately that looks more like a ceiling than a floor with what Priester has done so far in MLB.

When the Red Sox acquired Priester last deadline they gave up former Top 100 prospect Nick Yorke. Using last year’s Civale trade as a template we definitely gave up more value for a (currently) worse pitcher, but Priester also has way more team control left. I guess the look for a silver lining take here is that two pitching smart organizations have targeted Priester in the last year. Seems like this whole scenario could have been avoided by adding Shane Smith to the 40 Man in the offseason though.