sveumrules

I'd probably slot him in at #19 between two other diminutive Brewers prospects. Big believer in Luis Pena's upside at #18 even though he is on the opposite end of the proximity scale so can't put Caleb ahead of him. Love Luis Lara's defense in CF and he has plenty of time to figure out the rest, but Durbin is just on a whole different level as a hitter and on the cusp of MLB.

Welcome to the board!

Having a minor league fielding percentage 32 points better than thee literal worst 3B defender of the defensive metrics era is a point in his favor?

Based on what? The Brewers played Black at 1B for 76 games, DH for 21 games, OF for 12 games and 3B for 9 games (with three errors and a .876 fielding percentage) last year. That distribution would seem to imply the Brewers don’t believe Black is defensively capable of handling the strong side of a 3B platoon at the MLB level. If they had intentions of playing him at 3B on any kind of regular basis in MLB he would have gotten more reps there. All indications, from his scouting reports, to his fielding percentages, to how the Brewers have chosen to deploy him most recently indicate he is pretty horrible at 3B (especially for a team built on a foundation of run prevention).

Yeah, it seems like every postseason they flash up the onscreen graphic showing how the team that hits more HR in any given game has some obscene win percentage. Couldn’t find anything more recent, but this deep dive into the topic by Mike Petriello from 2020 does a pretty thorough job looking into it.

Lowe definitely falls flush in the Venn Diagram overlap of proven hitter, the Brewers can afford him, likely available, and on a team we have trade history with. Think he would need to play like 40 games each at 2B / 1B / DH to make it work defensively.

Interesting signing. Has been pretty durable averaging 150+ IP over his 12 year career. Definitely a control artist averaging just over one walk per nine innings the last three years, but only like 6.3 strikeouts per nine in Japan. For comparison here are some other recent NPB guys (with their K9) before coming over…Sasaki (11.4), Yamamoto (9.3), Imanaga (9.2), Senga (10.3), Ohtani (10.4), Darvish (8.9). Sugano has also been pretty homer prone in NPB with an HR9 over one in 4 of the 5 seasons from 2019-23 before putting up good homer suppression in 2024. Will be curious to see how that plays in the AL East.

The gist is that those seven players combined for about four wins (+38.9 runs) above average last year when accounting for defense and position. Steamer thinks those same seven players will only be marginally above average defensively (+2.5 runs) in 2025. Odds are the projections are underselling our defense (and by extension our pitching), so the Brewers should be a pretty safe bet to beat them again.

Projections regress defense to the mean extra hard. Last year’s DEF results vs next year’s Steamers… Contreras (+7.6 to +2.7) Chourio (+3.1 to -4.6) Ortiz (+11.3 to -0.9) Turang (+5.6 to +3.5) Mitchell (+1.3 to +0.5) Perkins (+6.9 to +2.9) Frelick (+3.1 to -1.6) TOTAL (+38.9 to +2.5) That’s something like three to four wins of likely under-projection right there.

Last year’s position players had the following MLB ranks… +19.7 BsR (1st) | 9.7 BB% (2nd) | 217 SB (2nd) | 26.4 avgAge (3rd youngest) | .326 OBP (4th) | +64 DRS (4th) | +29 FRV (5th) | 27.2 WAR (5th) | 777 R (6th) | .248 AVG (8th) | 104 wRC+ (10th) | 177 HR (16th) | .155 ISO (18th) | 23.6 K% (18th) First of all, just way to go. They were really really good at a lot of different things, especially for how young they were. Even with Willy the primary deficit was hitting for power though, so I think it’s only natural to hope for improvement in that area this year, especially with his departure. The players on hand should eat into a chunk of his lost production no doubt, but I’d feel a lot better about them maintaining or maybe even building on that Top Six finish in run scoring if they added one more bat to the mix.

Last year Contreras DHed 34 games and Yelich came in at 26 in only half a season. I wouldn’t be surprised if Contreras ends up around 40-45 games this year if they try to DH him more often to keep him fresh. If Yelich is healthy most of the season have to imagine he’s the DH at least 50-60 times coming off injury with four superior OF defenders on the roster. That would leave something like 220-240 games for Hoskins and someone else (probably Tyler Black at the moment) to divvy up between 1B/DH. Casas probably shouldn’t be seeing too much time at 1B either. Among 27 players with at least 1,500 innings there the last three years he has -7 DRS and -8 FRV, both ranking 20th. Brewers need another power bat no doubt, but with the dearth of catching in the system behind Quero I’m not sure they’ll be too motivated to deal him.

They had open spots heading into the Rule 5, but they were all spoken for with Thomas, Wolfram, Cortes, and Durbin all lined up. I would have preferred to keep Smith, he’s pitched well and is a great dev story, but the reality is (not even counting established SP like Peralta, Civale, Tobias and Woody) he’s behind nine RHP on the 40 man - Henderson, Megill, Payamps, Peguero, Mears, Bukauskas, Uribe, Patrick, and Rodriguez plus guys like Misio, Yoho, Hunt and Wichrowski that aren’t on the 40 man yet. I’d classify it as more of a calculated risk than any kind of unforced error, especially considering Smith hasn’t thrown a pitch for CHI yet and could still end up back in the org depending how things go.

If healthy and performing, sure, but Robert has only qualified for the batting title in one of his four full seasons while missing 237 of 648 games during that time. His K rate has also exploded going from 19.2 to 28.9 to 33.2% over the last three years. Not a good sign for a guy with a minuscule 5.6 BB% for his career. The White Sox are probably holding out for an offer matching the guy that hit for a 128 wRC+ over 595 PAs for 4.9 WAR in 2023, but teams know he only managed an 84 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR over 425 PAs last year. Steamer sees him bouncing back to a 103 wRC+ which is more or less the same as Garrett Mitchell’s 102 wRC+ projection. I’d rather take the risk on the guy we already have that will be making peanuts the next three years versus trading a big prospect package for a guy making $57M over the next three years.

Believe there will be a few more Comp A picks awarded for Burnes. Santander and Walker (if they sign with new clubs) so the Brewers will have two picks between #29 and #33 but the exact number of those picks isn’t quite set yet. But yes, should be fun!

Bucks move on to the Championship Game of the Emirates Cup with a 110-102 win over Atlanta. Giannis and Brook combined for an efficient 48 points making 17 of 25 FGAs. Also had six blocks between them. Lillard with a not so efficient 25 on 8 for 21 shooting, but hit the game sealing bucket at the end in typical Dame fashion. After posting positive marks for a +23 on/off in his first three games back Khris had his first clunker with a -5 today on 2 of 7 shooting with 3 turnovers. AJJ did a little of everything with 5 PTS | 7 REBS | 4 AST | 2 STL and pesky defense of Trae Young. AJG drained three of six from deep and the Bucks were +6 in his 19 minutes on the floor.

Soto has big edges in OBP (423 to 362 since 2021), playing time (an extra 1,527 career PAs), and age (hit FA at 26 vs 29 for Tucker). Tucker’s gonna break the bank no doubt, but he’s still gonna end up hundreds of millions shy of what Soto got.

Would guess if the White Sox deal Robert they are going to be looking for guys with zero service time like they got back for Crochet.

McMahon's defense would be a definite fit with +50 DRS (2nd) | +28 FRV (3rd) since 2021. Would probably need to be platooned though with a 101 wRC+ vs RHP | 71 wRC+ vs LHP split since 2021. 3/44 (12 - 16 - 16) remaining is probably a little rich for the Brewers though and I'd guess COL would want something like Boeve and Wichrowski coming back? Projections are Steamer (91 wRC+ | 1.9 WAR) and ZiPS (97 OPS+ | 2.6 WAR) If Eugenio Suarez is really out there he could be a nice one year stopgap. I wouldn't expect another 132 wRC+ like he put up in 2022, but last two years he is at a 109 wRC+ and 7.3 WAR. Defense has mixed reviews over that stretch (-6 DRS but +11 FRV) so that could be a factor. At 1/15 remaining he'd probably be a strain on the books, but its only one year so shouldn't require a huge prospect outlay. Steamer (104 wRC+ | 2.2 WAR) and ZiPS (101 OPS+ | 2.3 WAR) are both forecasting a win and a half dip from last year heading into his age 33 season. Best "proven bat" out there might be Brandon Lowe with a 120 wRC+ and 5.1 WAR over 861 PA's the last two years. Has 2/22 left on his contract with a Steamer of 117 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR. Downsides are he would slot into more of a 1B/DH/2B timeshare kind of role than an everyday 3B that would be a more natural fit and would also require a couple prospects that would hurt. Could see the Rays asking for something like Knoth plus one of Yophery or Bitonti? For whatever it is or isn't worth, since his name comes up all the time Yoan Moncada has a Steamer of 94 wRC+ over 416 PAs for 1.2 WAR. His deal is all going to hinge on the medicals, but I personally wouldn't go anymore than a minor league deal with an invite to camp. Steamer likes Ha-Seong Kim for 548 PAs of 106 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR. I'd take the under on those PAs (and probably the wRC+ too coming off a shoulder) but if the market turns into a Hoskins one plus one kind of situation he could maybe be an option. How about Jake Cronenworth? Has 6/71 left on his contract and Padres need to cut money. Has that all around versatile game the Brewers love. Steamer says 104 wRC+ and 2.2 WAR next year. Like stalled out former top prospects from down under for a change of scenery? Curtis Mead has a 292/371/499 (122 wRC+) line over 787 PAs in AAA with a 9.5 BB% and 16.8 K% under the hood, but has struggled in sporadic MLB run with 224 PAs of 244/300/312 (78 wRC+). Steamer still likes him to the tune of a 109 wRC+ projection for 2025 though.

Betts with Dodgers in 2020 for 12/365 and Lindor with Mets for 10/341 in 2021 were the last two.

Monasterio AA (771 PAs) Age 22-25 269/348/393 (106 wRC+) 10.0 BB% | 20.6 K% 20 SB / 12 CS Monasterio AAA (604 PAs) Age 24-27 256/364/365 (97 wRC+) 13.9 BB% | 23.2 K% 24 SB / 5 CS Durbin AA (224 PAs) Age 23-24 271/353/412 (114 wRC+) 8.0 BB% | 5.4 K% 23 SB / 8 CS Durbin AAA (375 PAs) Age 24 287/396/471 (129 wRC+) 12.5 BB% | 9.9 K% 29 SB / 3 CS Durbin has out hit, out run and made contact at a significantly higher rate than Monasterio ever did in the high minors and hasn't lingered at each level for three plus seasons like Andruw did either.

The Cubs can afford anyone they want, but haven’t really ever ponied up at the top of the market. If they want to extend or re-sign Tucker it could approach doubling the largest contract in franchise history. How “good” the deal ends up being for the Cubs will come down to if they can get back to the playoffs for the first time in the last six full seasons in 2025 and if the Ricketts finally decide to spend on a superstar.

If I counted right it looks like the 40 Man is now full up with 22 pitchers and 18 positionals. Any future additions would require an accompanying subtraction. Jay, Capra and Hicklen would be my best guesses as the guys whose spots are most tenuous.

If you click the Forums tab there is a link for Prospect Rankings under the Brewers Resources header. Here is a direct link. Voting results thread can be found here.

The defensive metrics are almost unanimously negative on Rengifo… 2B (2,460 inn.) -9 DRS | -12 FRV 3B (850 inn.) +1 DRS | -8 FRV SS (625 inn.) -5 DRS | -9 FRV With how much emphasis the Brewers put on run prevention I don’t think they’d have much interest in Luis.

Sounds a lot like his reports on Scooter Gennett (who went on to put up 1,135 PAs of 124 wRC+ from ages 27-28).