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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    This is one of those situations that WAR was more or less invented for... Ohtani BREF (7.2 WAR) +54 BAT | +9 RUN | 0 FLD | -12 POS | +20 REP Lindor BREF (6.5 WAR) +28 BAT | +5 RUN | +3 FLD | +9 POS | +21 REP Ohtani FanGraphs (6.8 WAR) +52.6 BAT | +7.1 RUN | 0.0 FLD | -15.3 POS | +19.8 REP Lindor FanGraphs (7.2 WAR) +26.6 BAT | +4.2 RUN | +10.8 FLD | +6.5 POS | +20.0 REP Depending how much one values position and defensive performance Lindor either comes in about 0.7 WAR behind by BRef's calculations versus 0.4 WAR ahead by FanGraph's computations.
  2. sveumrules
    Any and every ex-Brewer.
  3. sveumrules
    Hoskins has underwhelmed, no doubt, but prior to this season he averaged 26 HR | 70 RBI per 500 PAs and this year he is at 23 HR | 71 RBI in 460 PAs. He’s delivered to reasonable expectations in the old school run producing categories, at least, and his .199 ISO and 23 HR are both 2nd on a team with plenty of speed (+14.8 BSR | 2nd), defense (+69 DRS | 3rd), walks (9.8 BB% | 2nd), and singles (808 | 7th), but not a whole lot of power (.156 ISO | 15th and 161 HR | 16th). From 2017-22 with the Phillies, Hoskins posted… 152 BB+ | 109 K+ | 96 AVG+ | 148 ISO+ | 126 wRC+ Over his first 156 pre-injury PAs with the Brewers he came in at… 140 BB+ | 94 K+ | 95 AVG+ | 154 ISO+ | 127 wRC+ Not an exact match to his career norms, but pretty darn close trading a few walks and strikeouts for a little more power. He also had one hot stretch since returning from injury covering 112 PAs from 0705 to 0813 where his production took a way different shape… 87 BB+ | 131 K+ | 104 AVG+ | 197 ISO+ | 137 wRC+ Ideally he’s got a few more big hits left in him this year, then with a full offseason and that FA carrot dangling he can bounce back and put up a full healthy season in 2025 (for the defending WS Champions).
  4. sveumrules
    Yeah, probably have another vote after the postseason or the AFL is over to have a fresh list for the offseason. Looks like Braylon was mostly slotted in the teens this go round, but he did get a #8 and #10 for his two highest placements. For me personally I’ve got Misio & Pratt in the top tier, then Black/Quero/Gasser in their own little holding pattern tier. After that I’d have Braylon somewhere in the next grouping with Henderson, Yophery, Made, Peña, Adams, Yoho and Knoth for spots six to thirteen. I’d have the third basemen - Bitonti, Wilken, Boeve - after that. Lotsa viable options for the final four spots but I’d probably lean Lara, Hunt, Carlos Rodriguez the pitcher and Jose Anderson at the moment.
  5. sveumrules
    That split was posted before the game on 0802, over 149 PA since then Chourio is at... 106 BB+ | 80 K+ | 125 AVG+ | 168 ISO+ | 160 wRC+ Insane how kid just keeps getting better and better, upping his walk rate and power production substantially with a minimal tradeoff on batting average and strikeouts over the last five weeks.
  6. sveumrules
    Obviously a tiny sample, but Braylon Payne has five singles, five RBI, four stolen bags, three runs scored, two walks, a double and a triple over his first three games as the youngest player in the Carolina League. His 583/643/833 triple slash shakes out to a 315 wRC+.
  7. sveumrules
    1 W - 0 L
  8. sveumrules
    BuT tHe PrE dRaFt RaNkInGs
  9. sveumrules
    Eventful bottom of the first for Carolina as Yophery walked (wild pitch), Marco Dinges was hit by a pitch and subbed out for Miguel Briceno, Bitonti walked, Braylon Payne walked (1-0), David Garcia walked (2-0), Daniel Guilarte sac fly (3-0), wild pitch (4-0), Reece Walling home run (6-0), Yhoswar single and stolen base. Hopefully Marco Dinges is alright and one of our MiLB viewers can fill in the details.
  10. sveumrules
    Nice proposal. A lot would probably depend on how the Brewers view Miranda’s glove at 3B. DRS has him at an even zero over his 1,173 career innings, but OAA is a little harsher at -12 which ranks 29th of 32 third basemen from 2022-24 with at least 1,000 innings. Could also see the Brewers holding onto their OF depth given Mitchell’s injury history and some uncertainty about how Yelich will bounce back.
  11. sveumrules
    Still kind of crazy to look at how the Brewers have performed around their three game losing streaks this year… start 10-3 (0-3) 7-2 (0-3) 3-0 (0-3) 16-9 (0-3) 8-4 (0-3) 8-2 (0-3) 2-1 (0-3) 13-7 (0-3) 14-5 (0-3) ??? Can they not only stave off a four gamer for the ninth time this year, but also answer back with a nice extended run like they did in six of the previous eight instances? Stay tuned, I guess.
  12. sveumrules
    He’s mostly been a level per year in his progression. 2017 was the island with a taste of AZ at the end. 2018 was AZ, 2019 was Pioneer League, 2020 was 2020, 2021 low A, 2022 hurt most of the year but reached A+, 2023 mostly A+ with a promotion to AA. Main thing holding him back from being promoted more aggressively was probably his 28% K rate from 2017-22. Last two years he has trimmed that considerably down to 18.6%.
  13. sveumrules
    Adames is on pace to finish around five WAR on FanGraphs. Even with his slow start Chourio is on pace for four WAR this year. But he’s been playing at a seven WAR pace since June. If he did tally seven WAR in 2025 that would make up for three of Willy’s lost WAR. Yelich put up three WAR in a little under half a season, 73 games. If (BIG IF) he comes back and doubles his playing time at the same level of production that would cover the rest with an extra win to spare. Hoskins bouncing back to his career norms from prior to this year would be another way to get a couple wins back.
  14. sveumrules
    Skenes should be fine on IP. Had 129.1 last year between LSU and post-draft minor league appearances. Is at 147.1 so far this year between AAA and MLB with four scheduled starts remaining. Maybe they skip or abbreviate the very last one (currently lined up to be in Yankee Stadium) but getting him up into the 160's in IP is a reasonable jump from last season and sets him up to throw a full compliment next year.
  15. sveumrules
    The primary factor driving the difference between the Brewers World Series Odds derived from the projections on FanGraphs (3.4% currently) versus their WS Odds derived from season to date stats (11.6% currently) is that the projections don't believe the Brewers MLB best FIP beating capabilities (3.60 ERA vs 4.27 FIP) will continue moving forward with their depth charts projecting a 4.11 ERA vs 4.13 FIP rest of season.
  16. sveumrules
    The only pitcher to throw a scoreless frame in the Mudcats 12 to 6 loss was third baseman Miguel Briceno, who worked around a walk and strikeout to earn the zero while also registering his first ever strikeout from the mound in 7.1 career innings. Also went 3 for 4 at the plate with a stolen bag, not too shabby. Not much fun in the TRats box as they trail 5 to 1 top seven with their lone tally coming on Jadher Areinamo's 10th home run of the season.
  17. sveumrules
    Looks like Pablo Guerrero (DOB: 7/31/2006) is the youngest position player in the Carolina League to this point. Braylon (DOB: 8/14/2006) will have him beat by a couple weeks when he makes his debut.
  18. sveumrules
    Final math for the Mudcats first ends up seven walks + three wild pitches + two singles + two errors + one stolen base + one balk + two strikeouts + one flyout =‘seven Carolina runs.
  19. sveumrules
    My preseason math was along the lines of... Offense (+6 Wins): 92 wRC+ | -62.2 batting runs in 2023 up to average 100 wRC+ | 0.00 batting runs. Rotation (-6 Wins) 15.8 rWAR in 2023 down to around 2018 (11.2 rWAR) or 2019 (9.9 rWAR) levels. Bullpen (-6 Wins): +11.73 WPA in 2023 down to around 2021 (+5.90 WPA), 2018 (+5.65 WPA) or 2019 (+5.22 WPA) levels. That essentially would have brought them in around 86 Wins which would make it their seventh straight full season winning at least that many games, one of only four teams over .500 every year of that stretch. What we've gotten so far instead... Offense: 107 wRC+ | 44.4 batting runs & counting. Rotation: 11.0 rWAR with 4.5 of that coming in the 2nd half, the third highest post-ASB total in MLB. Bullpen: +11.92 WPA, just no words. I've never been more happy to be so wrong.
  20. sveumrules
    Pat Hoberg called a “perfect game” in the 2022 WS.
  21. sveumrules
    He had a 126 wRC+ over his first 156 PAs before getting injured. From July 4th through August 10th he put up a 144 wRC+ over 104 PAs.
  22. sveumrules
    If Adames was willing to sign for 4/100 it would have happened already. He’s gonna be shooting for double that while hoping to settle for a something north of Dansby money, 7/177.
  23. sveumrules
    From April 26th to May 15th the White Sox went 11 W - 8 L. They had a couple mediocre weeks from June 7th to 18th at 5 W - 6 L. Even put together another winning stretch at 5 W - 3 L from June 27 to July 5th. They are 10 W - 90 L in their other 100 games.
  24. sveumrules
    Yeah, was just looking at the last time a non-Brewers team had a share of first in the NLC and it was the Cubs at 22 W - 16 L on May 8th. Then they went 17 W - 32 L through July 3rd while the Brewers went 31 W - 20 L over that same stretch. That thirteen game swing is the division at the moment. Since then the Cubs are 32 W - 18 L, making up a couple two tree games on the Mets at 31 W - 22 L and half a bakers dozen on the Braves at 27 W - 26 L for the third WC. Also looks like the Cubs lost the head to head with both NLE teams so they’ll have to clear them outright.
  25. sveumrules
    Pretty remarkable that the Brewers have gone 20 W - 9 L in the 29 games with Turang and his 53 wRC+ in the leadoff spot post-ASB. I’d probably be trying a lineup something like this (with post-ASB numbers)… Perkins (75 PA | 121 wRC+) Chourio (168 PA | 162 wRC+) Contreras (175 PA | 150 wRC+) Adames (170 PA | 154 wRC+) Mitchell (120 PA | 128 wRC+) Sanchez (66 PA | 134 wRC+) Hoskins (144 PA | 82 wRC+) Ortiz (149 PA | 71 wRC+) Turang (149 PA | 53 wRC+) I’d be playing Monasterio (39 PA | 107 wRC+) a little more frequently to get Ortiz and Turang some extra rest. Give Bauers (79 PA | 76 wRC+) every third game or so at 1B in favorable match ups vs RHP. Get Hicklen in the OF vs LHP to see what he’s got and Frelick (128 PA | 74 wRC+) can sub in every fourth game or so vs RHP for Mitchell and Perkins. Start Haase (29 PA | 118 wRC+) once a week behind the plate so Gary can DH more.
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