sveumrules

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The Cubs are 32 W - 18 L since July 4th. That’s the 2nd best record in MLB over an almost two month stretch.

Biloxi up 5 to 0 heading to bottom of the sixth with a two RBI Connor Scott double followed by a two run Ernesto Martinez Jr. bomb accounting for most of the scoring. Nate Peterson has six scoreless frames with 5 H | 1 BB | 6 K.

Small samples like Mitchell in CF and Frelick in LF are prone to more outlier results with DRS, but even zooming out to their whole careers, the Brewers have a pretty sick collection of defensive outfielders... Perkins (1175 inn.) +20 DRS | +16 FRV Frelick (1404 inn.) +16 DRS | +11 FRV Chourio (989 inn.) +12 DRS | +6 FRV Mitchell (660 inn.) +11 DRS | +4 FRV Going back to 2022 when Mitchell debuted there are 196 outfielders with at least 600 innings played. Only 29 of them have +11 DRS or more and four of those are Brewers, a fifth (Tyrone Taylor at +17) put up most of his numbers in Milwaukee too. Also aways fun to compare the results of DRS which BRef uses for their WAR calculations and FRV, which is the StatCast defensive metric used by FanGraphs for their WAR. Most of the Brewers totals are pretty close, but there are a couple of interesting divergences at the top... Adames SS (1179 inn.) -12 DRS | +1 FRV Turang 2B (1054 inn.) +22 DRS | +4 FRV Contreras C (894 inn.) +1 DRS | -3 FRV Ortiz 3B (871 inn.) +6 DRS | +6 FRV Perkins CF (775 inn.) +9 DRS | +9 FRV Frelick RF (634 inn.) +12 DRS | +7 FRV Hoskins 1B (618 inn.) -3 DRS | -4 FRV Chourio LF (536 inn.) +4 DRS | -1 FRV Bauers 1B (467 inn.) -2 DRS | -1 FRV Chourio RF (453 inn.) +8 DRS | +7 FRV Yelich LF (402 inn.) -4 DRS | -2 FRV Mitchell CF (245 inn.) +6 DRS | +2 FRV Sanchez C (207 inn.) -1 DRS | -2 FRV Frelick CF (168 inn.) +3 DRS | +1 FRV Frelick LF (155 inn.) -5 DRS | -3 FRV With the emphasis the Brewers put on defense all around the diamond I would guess their internal models spit out results closer to DRS (which values defense around +/- half a run a game on a team level at the far ends of the spectrum) than they are to FRV (which is closer to +/- a quarter run a game at the far ends of the spectrum).

It was really only two years (2018 at +5 and 2019 at +8) that the Brewers went crazy on their pythag, otherwise it was 2016 (-1), 2017 (+1), 2021 (+2), 2022 (+1) and 2023 (+2). But yeah, six straight years on the right side of the ledger (even if only by a win or two) is still a pretty impressive run either way. This year's model has definitely gotten the lion's share of their positive run differential from blowout games. BRef defines a blowout as a game with a margin of five or more runs. The Brewers are 25 W - 7 L in such games with a +128 run differential. That means for the other 103 games the Brewers have a +5 run differential and are 54 W - 49 L. For comparison here are the other eleven current playoff teams with their blowout records and run differentials in those games... KCR (31 W - 14 L) +112 NYY (32 W - 17 L) +98 PHI (31 W - 17 L) +79 MIN (26 W - 15 L) +72 ARI (24 W - 21 L) +59 BAL (22 W - 15 L) +51 HOU (25 W - 19 L) +48 CLE (21 W - 15 L) +46 LAD (17 W - 14 L) +45 ATL (22 W - 14 L ) +42 SDP (20 W - 18 L ) +37 Pretty nuts that the Brewers have seven fewer blowout losses and almost 100 points of W% (.781 to .689) over the next best blowout team. Obviously not a perfect one to one comparison, but the minimal number of blowout losses and not having a losing streak longer than three games as of yet kind of gives me 2010 Packer vibes where they never trailed by more than a touchdown the whole season or whatever it was.

Wisco getting steamrolled 7 to 0 top eight. Hoby Milner worked around a two out Jac Caglianone double to put up a zero in his rehab frame.

KC Hunt finished up at 6.1 scoreless walkless innings with 5 H | 6 K. Shuckers picked up three runs bottom six on back to back Eric Brown Jr and Connor Scott doubles followed by an Ernesto Martinez bomb, but the Biscuits put up a four spot top of eight to take the lead. Warren - Kahle - Martin due up bottom nine to hopefully spark the comeback.

Carolina tallied eleven hits all singles with the aforementioned Miguel Briceno, Jose Acosta and Reidy Mercado collecting a pair each (Acosta & Mercado added a BB/SB each too) while Blayberg Diaz went for the hat trick. Filippo Di Turi also chipped in a walk and two sac flies.

A 9 to 5 lead was a big enough margin for the Mudcats to bring in Miguel Briceno to pitch the bottom of the ninth and he went ground out, HBP, double play to seal the deal in his fourth mound appearance of the season.

Pretty appropriate that what are ostensibly our 6th starter and 6th reliever would combine for the team’s 12th shutout of the year.

Manager won’t make much difference as long as Nutting and Castellini are signing the checks.

On July 3rd Turang still had a season line of 292/354/415 (116 wRC+) over 336 PAs. Since then he is at 173 PAs of 179/246/244 (39 wRC+). Pretty crazy the Brewers have still managed to go 26 W - 21 L since July 4th even with their leadoff guy hitting worse than Chris Narveson's 229/270/259 (44 wRC+) career line with the Brewers.

Brewers have played 134 games now. Here is Turang through the first 67 team games compared to last 67 so the samples are a little more even from a games standpoint... F67: 244 PA of 296/361/407 with 23 SB / 1 CS L67: 265 PA of 216/278/311 with 14 SB / 5 CS I'd guess Turang is running less of late due to a combination of being on base less, hitting at the top of the order, being thrown out with more frequency and probably just some good old fashioned fatigue in there.

Joe Ross with his eleven innings of 0.82 ERA | 2.53 FIP as a reliever.

Jackson has way more power than Lorenzo. Entering the game Chourio has a .171 Isolated Slugging as a 20 year old. Cain only reached a .171 Isolated Slugging once in his career and it wasn't until he was a grown man in his age 29 season with 1,369 PAs already under his belt.

How did Chourio look running to first on his single or pursuing the batted balls to left field since whatever happened at first base his last time up?

Ortiz has a 72 wRC+ in 138 PAs post-ASB entering the game. If we're using how players have performed since the break I'd say the closest to an ideal lineup would be something like... Chourio (153 PAs | 154 wRC+) Contreras (155 PAs | 153 wRC+) Mitchell (108 PAs | 110 wRC+) Adames (151 PAs | 139 wRC+) Sanchez (58 PAs | 160 wRC+) Perkins (58 PAs | 120 wRC+) Bauers (71 PAs | 89 wRC+) or Hoskins (129 PA | 85 wRC+) Ortiz (138 PAs | 72 wRC+) Turang (134 PAs | 44 wRC+) Bench Haase (24 PAs | 141 wRC+) Monasterio (29 PAs | 112 wRC+) Frelick (117 PAs | 69 wRC+)

With seven shutout innings from Civale last night the Brewers post-ASB rotation has a 78 ERA- (tied with HOU for best in MLB) and 4.2 rWAR (3rd). On the season as a whole they are at a 94 ERA- (8th) and 10.6 rWAR (13th), just fractions behind DET (10.8 rWAR) for the last spot in the Top Ten. The BAL rotation fronted by Corbin Burnes has a 98 ERA- and 10.0 rWAR.

Fifth game of the year that the Brewers have allowed two hits or fewer.

Civale (First Five Starts) 25 IP | 15 ER | 5.40 ERA Team went 1 W - 4 L Civale (Last Four Starts) 23.1 IP | 5 ER | 1.93 ERA Team is six outs from 4 W - 0 L

Brewers cashed in on their Vegas O/U with their 76th win last night...before the calendar flipped to September...with 30 games still left to play. On the season the rotation has posted a 95 ERA- (8th) and 10.2 rWAR (14th). In the second half they have picked it up to the tune of an 81 ERA- (3rd) and 3.7 rWAR (6th).

My guess is Boras will push for 8/250 and teams will be hesitant to go much over 7/200.

If it makes you feel any better about Avina he has tanked pretty hard after a fast start at A+ with his July numbers extra brutal. Monthly splits... Apr: 47 PA | 1011 OPS May: 120 PA | 880 OPS Jun: 104 PA | 746 OPS Jul: 79 PA | 274 OPS !! Aug: 47 PA | 719 OPS Altogether that is 167 PA of 157 wRC+ with a 10.8 BB% and 25.1 K% through May and then 230 PA of 66 wRC+ with a 6.1 BB% and 28.7 K% from June onward.

Not So Fun Facts Webb has owned the Brewers thus far in his career with 4 GS | 94 PA of 169/213/292 representing his lowest OPS allowed of any team faced. His two GS at AmFam have been even more dominant with 48 PA of 152/188/283 representing his lowest OPS allowed in any stadium he’s pitched in more than once.

Think he’s referring to their Pythagorean record derived from run differential. So far this year they are -1 win versus +2 wins last year, +1 win in 2022, +2 wins in 2021. They haven’t really deviated big time from their pythag since 2019 at +8 wins.