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Chourio has more or less replaced Yelich's impact by taking his game up a couple two tree levels. Offense has been virtually identical first half to second half... Brewers pre-ASB 106 wRC+ | 4.80 R/G Brewers post-ASB 107 wRC+ | 4.85 R/G Breaking it down a little more to Christian's specific injury timeline they put up a 104 wRC+ | 4.71 R/G from when Christian came back off the IL on May 8th through when he went back on July 23rd and have hit for a 109 wRC+ | 4.90 R/G over the last month without him in the lineup.

Natural inclination is Hicklen because a righty hitting OF makes more sense on paper than a lefty hitting DH/1B, but Brewer has pretty big reverse splits this year with an 898 OPS vs RHP compared to a 676 OPS vs LHP. He’s had more even splits in the past with a 787 rOPS vs 845 lOPS last year and an 853 rOPS vs 811 lOPS in 2022 so could just be some small lefty sample weirdness going on with this year’s flipped splits.

Yoho isn’t listed on the Depth Charts yet, but he does have a Steamer projection on his player page. 3.33 ERA is tied for 39th among relievers on the Rest of Season leaderboard. 3.39 FIP (37th) | 28.6 K% (35th) | .219 AVG (43rd) are some of his other ranks. Hasn’t pitched an inning in MLB and already projects as more or less a Top 40 reliever in Steamer’s estimation.

ZiPS projected Cruz at .245 AVG | 70 R | 67 RBI | 19 HR | 15 SB Oneil is currently at .265 AVG | 57 R | 63 RBI | 18 HR | 17 SB He’s essentially hit all his marks with 32 games left and an extra 20 points of batting average. Tough crowd.

Pretty crazy how this team keeps on just not regressing to the mean for any meaningful amount of time. Started 10 W - 3 L. Obviously nobody thought they'd win 125 games this year. Yelich got hurt and they went 11 W - 12 L from April 14th until May 8th. That's more like it. At that point they were 21 W - 15 L, still a 95 win pace. Nobody thought they'd win 95 coming into the year, so more regression had to be right around the corner, right? Nope, Brewers proceeded to go 31 W- 20 L over the next almost two months through July 3rd, which bumped them up to a 97 win pace at 52 W - 35 L. Then the annual pre-ASB swoon happened, 3 W - 7 L, dropping them to a 92 win pace at the break, still quite a bit ahead of pre-season expectations. No way they could possibly flip the script & keep up their first half pace after limping into the break and towards a deadline where all they did was add Nick Mears and Frankie Montas, right? Since the break they've gone 20 W - 13 L to where they stand today at 75 W - 55 L, nudging things up to about a 93 win pace.

Wow, thanks for the all the additional context, Spencer. Much appreciated.

I'm not sure any of these guys are under rated so much as under the radar, but a couple complex level bats with decent results that kind of get lost in the shuffle (not even including Juan Ortuno and his 159 wRC+)... Roderick Flores put up a 245/441/349 (132 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts in his second go around on the island at age 17 and a combined 23 SB / 5 CS in his two DSL summers. Played mostly 3B / RF / 2B in 2024. Tyler Rodriguez turned in a 277/455/361 (130 wRC+) as an 18 year old in his first season stateside. Also more walks than strikeouts and 18 SB / 5 CS in his two seasons. Played mostly SS / LF / 2B in 2024. A little higher up the ladder no prospect better demonstrates the increased depth in the system for me than Carlos Rodriguez the outfielder. Made the Top 20 in the lean years on the strength of promising bat to ball skills (with some speed and defense sprinkled in) at the lower levels, now is demonstrating those skills to the tune of 297/378/398 (129 wRC+) combined at AA/AAA again with more walks than strikeouts. Still only 23, looks like a pretty safe bet to be at least a 4th OF at some point. #13 overall pick in 2018 Connor Scott has had a resurgent 126 PAs as a Shucker with his 259/333/455 (133 wRC+) line representing the best production of his minor league career. On the pitching side a guy like 20yo RHP Jesus Broca has had a pretty rapid ascent going from the DSL to Carolina in one summer with 31 K vs 8 BB in his 23.1 combined IP amounting to a 2.52 FIP which is 7th in the system among pitchers with at least 20 IP. Believe there were some rare DSL clips of 19yo LHP Wande Torres posted recently by Brewers PD account and he put up 15.2 IP of 1.49 FIP | 1.72 ERA on the island. 18yo RHP Wenderlyn King had an impressive DSL debut with 37.2 IP of 3.07 FIP | 3.35 ERA work. Recent Indy League signing Tyler Bryant has been a fun box follow since joining the organization with 5 saves, a nice 1.69 ERA and 30 K through is first 21.1 professional IP. Obviously old for the Southern League but Sam Gardner just keeps getting outs and racking zeroes with 37 IP of 1.87 FIP | 2.19 ERA on the season. Dikember Sanchez has shoved in his first season stateside with 48.1 IP between the complex and Carolina totaling a 3.63 FIP | 2.23 ERA and 57 K vs 17 BB.

Lamar Sparks solo shot to lead off the sixth. Now 3 to 1 Shuckers.

Biloxi on the board first top of three with a pair of two out runs. A Zavier Warren solo shot started things off followed by a Casey Martin walk, and Darrien Miller & Brock Wilken HBPs to load the bases for a Connor Scott RBI single. Gave one back in the bottom half though with a Wilken error, double, and Nate Peterson wild pitch. Now 2 to 1 middle four.

Montas CIN vs MIL ERA 5.01 vs 2.57 FIP 4.93 vs 3.55 K% 19.0 vs 23.3 BB% 10.0 vs 8.9 HR9 1.35 vs 0.86 AVG .255 vs .219 WHIP 1.44 vs 1.19 He cut his ERA in half and improved across the board peripherally with the Brewers going 4 W - 0 L in his first four starts. They’d be tied 2 to 2 today if CB Bucknor knew a strike from a ball. Based on expectations after his acquisition, yeah, I’d say he’s been pretty great.

Casual nine up nine down for Montas, pumping gas. Wiemer hitting 146/255/146 (14 wRC+) for Louisville. Junis with a 5.84 ERA in a dozen mop up innings for the Reds.

Since Sanchez came back off the IL on 0724 he’s got 49 PA of 325/429/475 (154 wRC+) and that doesn’t include today’s bomb. VIVA EL GARY.

TRats hold on to win 5 to 2. Hedbert added a double to his ledger in the late innings while Tyler Bryant surrendered his first run in 10.2 Midwest League innings but notched his third save nonetheless. Mudcats also prevailed, 7 to 5. Harrison Durow went two scoreless (1 HBP | 3 K) with Dikember Sanchez picking up his third save throwing a scoreless ninth (1 HBP | 1 K). The combined exploits of Bitonti, Castillo and Guilarte accounted for most of the offense as noted up thread but Yophery Rodriguez and Marco Dinges both went 2 for 4 with a double each while Filippo Di Turi walked twice and stole a bag. Yophery also had an outfield assist.

Wisco leading 4 to 1 heading to top of eight. In addition to the aforementioned Hedbert homer, Jadher Areinamo is 3 for 4 with a double while Felix Valerio has an RBI double. Will Rudy was solid through four (1 ER | 3 H | 1 BB | 4 K) while Jeferson Figueroa has followed with three scoreless (2 each H, BB, K).

The Brewers are 14 W - 7 L since the trade deadline, with four of those wins coming in Montas starts. Cubs have mostly kept pace at 13 W - 7 L, but the Cardinals 8 W - 13 L is pretty ugly for a “clearly improved” club. The Brewers division lead has grown from five up on STL in 2nd place entering the month to 10.5 up on CHC in 2nd place currently.

Yeah, among 418 pitchers with at least 30 IP this year, Boyle’s 16.5% walk rate ranks 416th. Brewers batters’ 9.7% walk rate is 2nd in MLB (behind only the Judge Soto Show in the Bronx) so it should hopefully be a good match up for them.

21 Burnes (167 IP) 153 K%+ | 58 BB%+ | 31 HR9+ 84 AVG+ | 58 ERA- | 38 FIP- 22 Burnes (202 IP) 135 K%+ | 77 BB%+ | 93 HR9+ 81 AVG+ | 72 ERA- | 78 FIP- 23 Burnes (193 IP) 115 K%+ | 97 BB%+ | 83 HR9+ 80 AVG+ | 77 ERA- | 86 FIP- 24 Burnes (159 IP) 100 K%+ | 74 BB%+ | 87 HR9+ 97 AVG+ | 82 ERA- | 88 FIP- Obviously 2021 was never going to be any kind of multi season baseline, but the extent to which Corbin’s K rate has regressed to literal average would make me hesitant to dish out the 8/250 Boras will likely be shooting for this winter. The big jump in AVG+ really caught my eye too. Obviously pitching in front of the Brewers defense with +147 DRS (1st) from 2021-23 is a big difference from pitching in front of the Orioles with -1 DRS (21st) so far this year, but still pretty concerning either way.

The gap between AAA (especially the PCL where LAA has their affiliate) and the Majors is much wider than just a cusp. MLB Average 244/313/400 (4.41 R/G) IL Average 255/345/421 (5.14 R/G) PCL Average 268/357/446 (5.77 R/G)

Brewers and Athletics have matching 18 W - 12 L records since the All Star Break. Looks like Oakland’s hot streak has actually been going on since the beginning of July with their 25 W - 17 L record ranking 4th in MLB over that stretch.

...and a 30.9% K rate. Nolan Schanuel is kind of locked into 1B as the Angels 1st Round Pick (11th overall) in 2023 and one of their only decent players. When Hiura was up with LAA for a spell in July he started 4 games at 2B and 3 at DH. The last week or so the Angels have been giving those reps to Brandon Drury (264 PAs | 27 OPS+), Michael Stefanic (82 PAs | 80 OPS+), Niko Kavadas (13 PAs | -51 OPS+), and Jack Lopez (13 PAs | -100 OPS+). Pretty stiff competition.

Todd Helton had 61.8 career WAR | 46.6 peak seven WAR over 9,453 PAs with a 131 OPS+. Votto comes in at 64.5 career WAR | 46.9 peak seven WAR over 8,746 PAs with a 144 OPS+. Took Helton six years to get in. Guessing Votto comes in around there, maybe a little shorter since he doesn't have Coors Field hanging over his head and as you note he has always been a writer & fan favorite.

Bernie's been roasting the Cardinals all year... Despite A Huge Payroll Advantage, Cardinals Are Inferior To The Brewers. There’s No Excuse For That.

Over the last two years, covering 287 games and 2,553 innings, the Brewers have posted a 3.69 ERA | 4.25 FIP. That -0.56 margin is the best in MLB with Houston second all the way down at a -0.34 margin. The gap between the Brewers in 1st and Astros in 2nd is the same as the gap between the Astros in 2nd and the Cubs in 10th. Over those same last two years, the Rockies have posted a 5.61 ERA | 5.06 FIP. That +0.55 margin is the worst in MLB over that stretch by an even larger extent with the Cardinals second to worst with a +0.30 margin. Now obviously more goes into beating (or not beating) one's FIP than just defense and home ballpark, but the Brewers defense over the last two years has essentially been so good that their pitchers have gotten to pitch their games in the opposite of Coors Field.

Yup. Have to imagine that pitching in front of the Brewers defense (+64 DRS | 3rd) instead of Cincy’s (-34 DRS | 27th) has made some difference for Frankie too.

Timmerman has some pretty impressive numbers for an under the radar guy. Think he definitely would be getting more attention if there weren’t so many other arms from last years draft just going completely nuts. At a just turned 22 he is still about half a year younger than the average pitcher in the Carolina League. His 3.35 FIP ranks 10th among Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 50 IP. The only pitcher younger than him with a lower FIP was the recently traded Yujanyer Herrera. 9.91 K9 is good, but that 5.11 BB9 will probably need to come down as he moves up because he won’t keep on giving up 0.00 HR9 forever.