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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Already got me looking at the Carolina schedule trying to figure out a week in May or June to take a Zebulon trip.
  2. sveumrules
    Haven’t seen the whole movie yet, but did watch his scene. Perfect casting. Also really enjoyed his performance in Lucky as one of the local characters opposite Harry Dean Stanton, One comforting thing about Lynch passing is he had plenty of longtime collaborators waiting for him on the other side with HDS, the Log Lady, Jack Nance, and the rest. Also thought it was somewhat apropos that fire was so elemental to his work and it was a fire of almost unbelievable intensity and scale that more or less took him out and was one of the last things he experienced.
  3. sveumrules
    There was something on MLBTR a few days back about how Boras/Bregman are still focused on a long term deal. I can see why teams have been hesitant to this point. Gets a lot of his value from pulling homers to the short porch in HOU, has seen his wRC+ drop from 137 to 126 to 118 the last three years, walk rate fell off a cliff from 13.8% over 2018-23 down to a not so nice 6.9% in 2024. Apparently turned down something like Chapman money (6/150) before the Astros pivoted to trading for Paredes and signing Walker. Starting to look like another guy where Boras misread the market.
  4. sveumrules
    Bucks are 7 W - 1 L over the past two weeks since the last post in this thread. Why do I feel like those two things are somehow related? Their season essentially breaks down into four segments so far as we have reached the halfway point... UGLY START (2 W - 8 L) oRTG: 110.6 (19th) dRTG: 115.7 (22nd) netRTG: -5.1 (22nd) EMIRATES CHAMPS (12 W - 3 L) oRTG: 115.7 (10th) dRTG: 110.0 (8th) netRTG: +5.7 (10th) POST CUP HANGOVER (3 W - 5 L) oRTG: 106.3 (26th) dRTG: 107.0 (3rd) netRTG: -0.7 (16th) BACK ON TRACK (7 W - 1 L) oRTG: 120.7 (4th) dRTG: 110.4 (6th) netRTG: +10.3 (5th) LAST 31 GAMES CUMULATIVE (22 W - 9 L) oRTG: 114.5 (11th) dRTG: 109.3 (5th) netRTG: +5.2 (7th) Defense has been holding it down since those first ten games, and the offense has mostly been there outside of the post-Cup stretch where Dame and Giannis missed four games each. Keep everybody healthy, maybe make a stealth deadline move if there is one out there, and the Bucks have as good a chance as anybody at knocking off CLE and/or BOS in the playoffs.
  5. sveumrules
    The Dodgers have an estimated payroll of $351M for next year, the Brewers are at $116M currently. It would take way more than one or two moves to possibly get over that $235M hump. Lets go crazy, sign Alonso & Bregman for $30M each annually over the next six/seven years, trade some big prospects for Luis Robert and Luis Castillo, now we’re only $136M short of the Dodgers. So even with four yuge moves they’d still be a whole team’s payroll behind LAD, and also still well short of teams like HOU, NYY, TEX, TOR, NYM and PHI. I’d rather roll with the status quo since big moves don’t guarantee a World Series win in the present and would hinder the Brewers chances for future success by tying money up in aging players on the decline and thinning out the farm system.
  6. sveumrules
    Yeah, he was granted a fourth option year on account of injury. Roster Resource lists him with one remaining.
  7. sveumrules
    MLBTR write up mentions Elvin has two options left, so have to assume that was a factor. Also looks like he was primarily a starter in the minors with 130 games started and only eight scattered bullpen appearances. They don't have games started for Japan on BRef, but with 88 IP in 49 appearances this past year it looks like he was deployed primarily as a multi inning relief option.
  8. sveumrules
    On the one hand, how Uecker performed as a player on the field was the least remarkable thing about him. But on the other hand, that performance & his attitude about it also served as a springboard to all the unbelievable greatness that came to follow. So I guess it got me curious just how bad Ueck was. Turns out there were 297 players to get at least 800 plate appearances between 1962 and 1967, with Bob notching the following ranks... 146 BB%+ (22nd) | 143 K%+ (266th) | 76 AVG+ (297th) | 67 ISO+ (231st) | 64 wRC+ (283rd) What jumps out right away is that Ueck walked A LOT, especially for someone who couldn't get a hit and had no power. I can't recall one off the top of my head, but maybe he has an anecdote about how his approach in the box was to never swing and just pray for four balls? So my next thought was, does any active player have even a remotely similar profile at the plate? As it turns out, there are 300 players with at least 750 PAs over the last three years, a pretty similar size player pool. And one guy was pretty, pretty close... 146 BB%+ (22nd) | 116 K%+ (241st) | 76 AVG+ (298th) | 69 ISO+ (275th) | 70 wRC+ (292nd) I mean, come on now. The BB%+ and AVG+ are exactly the same, the ISO+ is two percent off, in a nice way. Some of the rankings even line up within a couple spots. Only real difference is this "new" Uecker doesn't strike out as much. So now the question is, does anyone know how Taylor Walls comedic timing is?
  9. sveumrules
    RIP David Lynch. Can only imagine what him and Ueck are talking about in line.
  10. sveumrules
    One under-reported aspect of Uecker's legacy is his charity. Despite retiring with a .200 career batting average he never once campaigned to have it renamed The Uecker Line.
  11. sveumrules
    Sounds like the Mets are out on Pete Alonso after re-upping with Jesse Winker for $7.5M plus incentives.
  12. sveumrules
    Every fastball at Coors is 5,280 feet high to start with.
  13. sveumrules
    There 31 catchers with at least 1,000 PAs since 2021. Over that time Haase's main issues have been walking too infrequently (6.4 BB% | 22nd), and striking out too much (29.7 K% | 30th). On the defensive side there are 48 catchers with at least 1,500 innings since 2021. Haase comes in at -10 DRS (37th), -13.8 FRM (39th), and -17 FRV (43rd). So his primary weaknesses are that his batted ball profile is entirely dependent on balls in play (but there aren't many balls in play because he strikes out so much), and he is a poor defensive catcher. Contreras only caught 120 games last year, and 108 in 2023. I'd imagine he sees a similar number behind the plate again in 2025 with another thirty or forty games at DH.
  14. sveumrules
    Looks like Donovan Solano to the Mariners for one year at $3.5M.
  15. sveumrules
    “Milwaukee Brewers? That’s an MLB team??” -Roki Sasaki, probably.
  16. sveumrules
    Devanney has spent the last two seasons in AAA now. His plate discipline cratered from 11.8 BB% | 18.2 K% in 2023 to 9.0 BB% | 26.0 K% in 2024. He’ll be playing his age 28 season next year. Sure, Clarke never panned out, neither has Devanney. Maybe Cam will yet at some point, but if he were still in MKE he’d have all of Durbin, Dunn, Monasterio & even Vinny Capra ahead of him on the depth chart.
  17. sveumrules
    Rodgers tore his labrum in 2023 and has been worse across the board since though… 2021-22 (3.1 WAR) 6.5 BB% | 18.6 K% .161 ISO | 95 wRC+ 142 wRC+ vs LHP 2023-24 (1.0 WAR) 5.7 BB% | 23.7 K% .137 ISO | 85 wRC+ 106 wRC+ vs LHP
  18. sveumrules
    There’s a few things at play here I think. The first is that arbitration is separate from those other unconstrained markets you mention. The owners behave collectively so that Arby salaries will grow at a slower rate than those on the open market. The other as it relates to catchers specifically is that the combination of there being so few star offensive catchers, and there being somewhat of a ceiling on catchers performance due to the limited games played and physical toil, adds up to even slower growth than other positions. I also wonder if there wasn’t a little bit of a rising tide lifts all boats effect going on with Wieter’s $5.5M since it was the same year Buster got $8M.
  19. sveumrules
    Woah, impressive effort putting this all together. Obviously the international market is it’s whole own thing, but as the draft has seemingly trended towards college players with more robust data profiles, I can’t help but wonder if high school prospects have become somewhat undervalued and if that might be part of the reason we see a lot of the usual suspects atop the list.
  20. sveumrules
    Looping Hiura into this is some serious Pepe Silvia level stuff, bravo.
  21. sveumrules
    We only have William in the first place after moving Hader because of Money (& his performance blowing up over the two months leading into the 2022 deadline).
  22. sveumrules
    Will be interesting to see how the next three years play out for Contreras, Cal Raleigh and Adley Rutschman with all three set to hit free agency at the same time. LAST THREE YEARS Raleigh (1612 PAs | 13.9 WAR) 10.0 BB% | 28.3 K% | 117 wRC+ +29.4 FRM | +33 DRS | 28.4 CS% Rutschman (1795 PAs | 13.3 WAR) 12.0 BB% | 16.2 K% | 121 wRC+ +16.5 FRM | +24 DRS | 21.9 CS% Contreras (1666 PAs | 13.2 WAR) 10.8 BB% | 22.1 K% | 130 wRC+ +14.9 FRM | +7 DRS | 18.9 CS% Pretty close across the board with Raleigh the best defender / worst hitter, Contreras the opposite and Adley the middle man. Steamer likes Contreras (128 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) and Raleigh (115 wRC+ | 5.2 WAR) a scooch better than Rutschman (124 wRC+ | 4.7 WAR) for 2025, while ZiPS has them projected at Raleigh (121 OPS+ | 4.8 WAR), Rutschman (120 OPS+ | 4.6 WAR), and then Contreras (122 OPS+ | 4.2 WAR). Raleigh is the oldest of the three with the lowest profile so he might seem like the most likely to take an extension, but he is also the only Boras client of the three.
  23. sveumrules
    So what you're saying is not agreeing to a salary before the deadline doesn't necessarily mean anything with regards to long term contract possibilities?
  24. sveumrules
    Good news is the Cubs apparently aren't serious about retaining Tucker after this year (but we already knew that).
  25. sveumrules
    My hunch is Contreras wants to be the first $200M catcher topping Joe Mauer's current record deal of 8/184, so any future long term deal with the Brewers is essentially a pipe dream anyway. If the Brewers offered that today they could structure it something like $6M - $10M - $15M for his three remaining Arby years with say a $4M signing bonus which would leave 5/165 ($33M annually) for his "free agent" years covering what would be his age 30 to 34 seasons. Under that structure Contreras first year at $33M would line up with the last guaranteed year of Yelich at $26M. Over the five years that Contreras would hypothetically be making $165M, Chourio is on the books for 4/57 then a couple $25M team options. No doubt the Brewers can afford it, the only question is how much sense it does or doesn't make to tie up such a large amount of resources on the most risky position in the lineup when you already have that player under control for three discounted seasons (& could potentially deal him for a haul at some point along that timeline instead of paying him big money for his thirties).
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