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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    I didn’t say a 2-6 record is a big step up, I said their performance over the last three games has been a big step up compared to the three embarrassing earlier losses.
  2. sveumrules
    Because they aren’t going to win wire to wire tonight? The last two games they lost to the undefeated Cavs by a total of three points, one of those games with no Giannis and the other on a pretty insane last second shot by Mitchell. Cleveland has won their other seven games by a combined 111 points. The last three games have been a big step up compared to the losses to CHI, BRK and MEM.
  3. sveumrules
    In a macro sense as bat only no defense kind of players, sure. Black has way better contact, patience and base running skills. Hiura has better raw power. Ideally Tyler's broader base of skills gives him a higher floor, but it's certainly no guarantee.
  4. sveumrules
    I don’t think the Brewers really have an OF surplus. Chourio is a superstar, Yelich/Mitchell have elevated injury risk and Frelick/Perkins are both glove first light hitting options. If Yelich and Mitchell are hurt at the same time, who is the 4th OF? I’d guess Christian’s DH time ramps up considerably this year too from the couple dozen games he has averaged there the last few seasons which will open up more time on the grass for everyone else.
  5. sveumrules
    The Rockies surely value McMahon more highly than they did Mears (regardless of what surplus value might say) so something north of that. I’d think something like Brett Wichrowski and Mike Boeve would be in the neighborhood of what the Rockies would be looking for.
  6. sveumrules
    Last year Bauers got 60 starts at 1B, nine in the OF, and eight at DH, plus 33 pinch hit appearances which added up to 346 PAs. I’d plan to divvy up the starts something like this entering the season… First Base Hoskins (100) Black (62) Designated Hitter Yelich (70) Contreras (42) Hoskins (25) Black (25) That would give Black ten extra starts over Bauers last year, which should get him up around 400 PAs for the year.
  7. sveumrules
    Given Black's overly patient plate approach, I think keeping him in AAA with the more rigid zone any longer could be a detriment at this point. I'd plug him into the Bauers role from last year and see what he does with 400 PAs against MLB pitchers.
  8. sveumrules
    Kim could be an option depending on his medicals. Might end up having to sign a one year deal to prove he’s fully healthy before hitting FA again for that big multi year contract after 2025.
  9. sveumrules
    Something built around Williams to TEX for Josh Smith (add pieces on either side as needed) is probably the best two birds one stone kind of deal they could pull off. Otherwise my best guess is they deal Devin for prospects and trade for an Adames mitigator from the minor league IF/SP depth.
  10. sveumrules
    They give out the gloves at each of the three OF spots now. Perkins was up against other NL CFers where he came in at +8 DRS (6th) and +9 FRV (9th). Competition wasn’t quite as stacked against Sal in RF where his +16 DRS was eleven runs better than 2nd place, while his +8 FRV was five runs better than the runner up.
  11. sveumrules
    Bummer. At least time is on his side. Prado was one of only five pitchers in the Arizona Complex League to crack 40 IP in their age 18 season. Melvin Hernandez was the only one that did it in his age 17 season, and his 3.81 FIP was 3rd out of 28 pitchers of any age who threw at least 40 IP in the ACL last year.
  12. sveumrules
    The Brewers income will be going down next year because of the TV situation. I’d characterize spending less when income decreases as more of a financial reality than sad cheapness. There was never going to be a bunch of anything either way, the position player group that scored the 6th most runs in baseball and posted the 5th highest WAR is losing only one player of consequence. Besides the standard moves around the edges, and barring the out of nowhere surprise deal, the offseason was always going to be essentially two pronged - trade Williams if there is an intriguing offer and try to find someone to mitigate Adames departure.
  13. sveumrules
    Think Bitonti’s placement could play a role in this too. He had a pretty solid showing to end the summer at Carolina with 132 PAs of 131 wRC+, which ranked 3rd out of only 15 players in the league who got at least 100 PAs in their age 18 or younger season. Pretty impressive stuff, but it also came with a .221 AVG and 29.5 K% under the hood so they might want to start him back in Carolina to show a better contact profile before hitting the Midwest League. If he is in Wisco, it makes it a lot easier to start both of Made/Peña in Carolina. Even if Bitonti does open a TRat though, is there enough time for all of Made. Peña, Adamczewski, Di Turi, and Tyler Rodriguez (130 wRC+ as an 18yo in the ACL last year playing mostly SS) in the Carolina infield? Especially after the BA article noting his swing decisions, could also maybe see Jose Anderson skipping Arizona and going straight to the Carolina OF.
  14. sveumrules
    Big difference between Chourio and Hiura is that Jackson had an advanced and diversified skillset that allowed him to put up a productive MLB season at age 20. At age 20 Hiura was still hitting with an aluminum bat at UC-Irvine before a cameo in A ball after getting drafted. It will still be a long hard road for sure, and I'd never expect another Chourio-like ascent from anyone, but Jesus has a lot more in common with Jackson than Keston at this point.
  15. sveumrules
    His contract is enormously underwater. At least coming into 2023, he had been hurt but still performing at an elite level with a 645 PAs of 179 wRC+ over 2021-22 adding up to eight WAR. Now heading into 2025, he has been even more hurt and his production has fallen off considerably with only 488 PAs of 135 wRC+ the last two years for only four WAR. Projecting him for even ten WAR over the next six years seems pretty generous given his current trajectory so the Angels would need to eat over $100M just to get a marginal prospect or two back in return.
  16. sveumrules
    Areinamo vs Wilken is pretty much the safer lower floor prospect versus the boom or bust higher ceiling profile debate personified. Jadher’s speed, defense, contact ability, sneaky pop and baseball acumen make him about a safe a bet as there is for any 20yo in the Midwest League to be a future MLB player. Brock hitz bombz. The end of his season and current AFL run have been ugly no doubt, but from May 8th through July 31st he did put up 303 PAs of 238/340/442 (133 wRC+) with a 13.2 BB% and 23.4 K%. It’s not like he went full on EBJ. As much as we might try to rationalize our internet prospect ballots, a lot of times the dream element works it’s way in there somehow no matter what so ceiling probably wins out more than the real life boom bust ratio indicates it probably should.
  17. sveumrules
    665 pitchers threw at least 20 IP in AAA this year, Logan (and Carlos Rodriguez) were among only 15 in their age 22 season or younger so definitely some Boyz II Men going on. To have already reached AAA even with time missed to injury speaks to how advanced the foundation is. Now just a matter of building off it and seeing if he can crack that 100 IP threshold this year.
  18. sveumrules
    Relative to expectations I’d say they’ve struggled more than the Brewers. No one expects the Brewers to win the World Series, and they don’t. The Dodgers have made the postseason twelve years in a row. Over that time they’ve won 95 more regular season games than the next best team (NYY) that’s an extra eight wins per year. Yet their 64 postseason wins over that stretch are only first by two wins over Houston, who had three fewer postseason trips than the Dodgers. For all their dominance it took them twelve years to win a 162 game World Series. How we gonna expect the Brewers to win one faster than that? If the Packers didn’t really accomplish much by only winning two Super Bowls with Favre/Rodgers, than these Dodgers haven’t really accomplished much yet either.
  19. sveumrules
    Yeah, all these guys have warts, that's why they are theoretically available to begin with. Even a guy like Rengifo, if the Angels were willing to move him has been absolutely brutal afield as well... 2B (2,460 inn.) -9 DRS | -12 FRV 3B (850 inn.) +1 DRS | -8 FRV SS (625 inn.) -5 DRS | -9 FRV DeJong is maybe the most interesting to me of the "cheap veteran" options, but even then out of 186 players with at least 800 PAs the last two years his 5.0 BB% ranks 173rd and his 31.4 K% ranks 181st which predictably makes his 0.16 BB/K ratio 185th in the sample. If he puts up a .285 BABIP and .200 ISO like he did this year, that shakes out to a perfectly cromulent 95 wRC+. But if his batted balls come in closer to the .264 BABIP and .148 ISO he posted in 2023 you're talking about a lowly 65 wRC+.
  20. sveumrules
    Obviously reading into tiny samples isn't too instructive, but based how things were divvied up last year I'd guess (hope?) the primary AZ alignment ends up as Quintana (SS) Ereu (2B) Ortuno (3B) with guys like Nadal (health pending), Roderick Flroes (132 wRC+ last year), and Moises Polanco (125 wRC+ last year) in more of the bouncing around utility type roles.
  21. sveumrules
    I think Boeve starts in AAA next year along with Dunn. That leaves Wilken and Adams in a timeshare at AA. Juan Baez in Wisconsin, Bitonti in Carolina likely rotating around with some combination of Made and Pena when they aren't playing SS. Impressive DSL performers like Juan Ortuno and Demetrio Nadal probably in the Arizona mix.
  22. sveumrules
    Last four years Polanco has seen his K% go from 18.3% to 21.3% to 25.7 % to 29.2%. His wRC+ over that same stretch has gone from 124 to 118 to 117 to 92. These two things are likely related. His -20 FRV at 2B is the worst among 24 keystoners with at least 2,000 innings since 2021, though DRS thinks he's been closer to scratch at +2. Given he was among the worst defensive SS in MLB from 2016-22 with -40 DRS and -24 FRV, I'd imagine he falls short of the Brewers defensive threshold.
  23. sveumrules
    This seems like a rather large assumption about a guy who once punched a wall after clinching the division.
  24. sveumrules
    I love Adams and had him highest rated out of the third base prospects in the system, but there a couple things that give me pause. There’s a little of that Darrien Miller in there where his profile is so walk and HBP heavy (40 plunks, MLB leader was Arozarena with 22) so that will taper off on the way up. Adams is considerably younger with more power so his walk rate should hold up better, but even there he was at 18.7% this year which is Soto/Judge territory in MLB. Then it’s a gap to Schwarber (15.3%) before another gap down to guys like India/Lowe (12.6%), Winker (12.4%), Freeman (12.2%), Harper (12.0%), Mookie (11.8%), Contreras (11.5%), etc so realistically that’s still Iike a six seven percent drop in a best case scenario by the time he hits MLB. The other red flag for me in his offensive profile is he now has 858 PAs the last two years with a .289 BABIP. The pop ups Spencer mentioned are probably a big part of that.
  25. sveumrules
    During his seven year peak from 1981-87 Fernando threw 1,788 innings. Wade Miley has 1,745 IP over a 14 year career. Sonny Gray is at 1,737 IP over his 12 years in the bigs. The most innings anyone has over the last seven full seasons (plus the sixty game COVID year) is Aaron Nola with 1,432.
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