CheeseheadInQC

Four Brewers got mentions in Fangraph's Names to Know article which discusses 100 prospects who didn't make their top 100. The list was divided into groupings. Josh Gasser was in the low-variance starter category and Tyler Black was in the Issues on Defense section (although the writeup was surprisingly complimentary of him at 3rd given the category he was put in). The two less expected names on the list, however, came in the Guys Who Sit 97-Plus Category: Quinton Low and Yerlin Rodriguez. Each of the four got a little writeup.

Yah, I get pretty obscure with the tier 3 ones, which made it tough when I had to find a different pitcher at the last minute when I forgot who I was initially going to use. My apologies to Wande Torres. @damuelle and @Joseph Zarr, thanks for your lists. It is great to get the perspective of people who watch more of the games, especially on the hitters in this case. If I hadn't decided to make it 4/4, I probably would have picked seven pitchers and Alastre. Even beyond the starters, look at the likely triple-A and double-A bullpens. Between us we mentioned Chirino, Russell Smith, Yeager and Shook. Then you've got Myers, Holub and Shears, to say nothing of Shane Smith, who I don't really even consider a sleeper anymore. And you've got others like Gardner off his Australia domination and King, who needs better control but racks up strike out after strike out. Wholeheartedly agree on Rivero and Rodriguez being really intriguing as well.

I could see Holub and Chirino factoring into the triple-A discussion as well, depending on how other things shake out. That looks like a really deep team on paper (they could have seven 40-man position players starting on opening day), but there is a chance that injuries and opt-outs could reduce some of the excess numbers as well.

That's something I wasn't clear on. Do they need to temporarily have a 40-man spot for 30 seconds in order to sign Woodruff and then put him on the 60-day or can they sign him directly to it? If they do need a spot, that is the most obvious answer.

We will have to see if Boras overplayed his hand this year, whether the uncertainty over the RSNs has made his usual wait ‘em out strategy less effective.

It seems like he has about as much chance of making the opening day roster as I do barring a bunch of injuries, but I will say, the Brewers just DFA’d two pitchers with an option but hung onto Jahmai Jones who doesn’t have one.

I wouldn’t. I like the plate discipline, but that contact rate scares me. Even if the ceiling is slightly higher than Frelick, the floor is just so much lower.

With Spring Training opening, I thought it was a good chance to take a look at some sleeper prospects who could rise up the prospect ranks this season. I decided to pick four position players and four pitchers and, as with last year, I am dividing this into three tiers. The first tier are your regular sleepers, the guys who aren't gracing many top 20 or 30 lists, but have already established themselves as at least names to watch. The second tier are typically less established but have something to recommend them (I had Juan Baez in this tier last year). The third tier are kind of random shots in the dark. They might not even be in the organization's top 100 prospects, but there is something in their statistical profile that I find interesting. Hitters Tier 1: Ernesto Martinez This pick was easily the most difficult one on the list. Every other category, I felt I had multiple options or knew exactly who I wanted. Heck, I even opted against including Jesus Rivero or Ryan Birchard as the tier 1 pitcher because they felt too easy. There were eight, maybe nine players who I'd consider to be in this tier given some of the constraints I set. It didn't help that of the two most obvious candidates, I eliminated one because having all four hitters coming from the DSL felt like overkill (Pedro Ibarguen) and the other because it felt like bandwagon jumping given that I think when he was picked I remarked that it sounded like they took another Devin Hairston (Ethan Murray). Of the remaining ones, none really stood out as saying "I should pick that guy." So why Martinez? I think it is because I saw him play in person. He looks like a major leaguer. When the ball comes off his bat, it sounds like it was hit by a major leaguer. There was one mishit that was still traveling hard enough and with enough spin that it made me feel sorry for the second baseman. He also made improvements in his strikeout rate last season, which was among the reasons it took him until his final season before minor league free agency to secure a spot in AA. He still pops up too much and I worry the strikeouts will return as the pitching gets better, but if he makes it work ... Other players in this tier like Isaac Collins or Carlos Rodriguez are probably more likely to crack a big league roster some day, but none are as fun to dream on as Martinez. Tier 2 Luiyin Alastre My personal belief is that if you want to find a sleeper position player on a DSL roster, choose someone who plays a lot (preferably at a premium position) and strikes out very little. Two years ago, that was Jadher Areinamo. Last year it was Juan Baez. This year I believe it is Luiyin Alastre. It's not a perfect correlation (Alastre played less shortstop than the other two), but in many other respects, Alastre's DSL campaign last season was better than theirs. He walked more (13.5%). He struck out even less (11%). His ISO (.088) was better than Areinamo and almost the same as Baez in the DSL. He might have gotten overshadowed by Rodriguez, Nadal, Ibarguen and Di Turi, but Alastre has earned the right to be considered a player to watch in his own right. Tier 3 Roderick Flores & Tyler Rodriguez Not getting to see most of the games, I base a lot of trying to pick break-out candidates on two things: statistics and organizational signals. So here, in tier 3, we have two players. The first has great organizational signals, but concerning statistics. The second has a very interesting stat line, but pretty awful organizational signals. If you were to guess who had the most plate appearances among Brewers DSL prospects last year, you might be able to correctly pick Yophery Rodriguez as No. 1 and Filippo Di Turi as No. 2. In third place, however, isn't Pedro Ibarguen or Demetrio Nadal or the aforementioned Luiyin Alastre. It was middle infielder Roderick Flores. That, coupled with the fact he played most of his games at shortstop or second base, indicates the Brewers see something in Flores. So why isn't he up with Alastre in Tier 2? The answer? He struck out nearly 30% of the time. That number obviously needs to come down, but there is at least one other reason for optimism with Flores. He was the youngest hitter on either Brewers DSL roster. On the other hand, as far as DSL stat lines go, I like to see hitters who take walks, have a reasonable strikeout rate and display at least a modicum of pop (.1 ISO). Tyler Rodriguez did all three. He also needed a late season surge in playing time to get close to 100 plate appearances and played pretty much everywhere except shortstop, including a fair amount of first base. Considering he is listed at 5-10, 165, that probably speaks more to either defensive limitations or his place in the prospect pecking order than a future defensive home. It wasn't all rosy with Rodriguez's bat. If Fangraph's DSL batted ball data is to be believed, he was really pull-happy and popped out a lot. Still, however, the ability to put a couple of balls into the bleachers while posting solid strikeout and walk totals makes his stat line a lot more interesting than most DSL prospects who get his level of playing time. Pitchers Tier 1: Harold Chirino The Brewers are not lacking for potential breakout pitchers. Even excluding the low-hanging fruit pair I mentioned earlier and Alexander Cornielle, who I've written about before, there were plenty of potential choices for this tier. So why Chirino over Quinton Low, Cameron Wagoner or a host of other relievers? If he gets an opportunity (the Brewers aren't lacking for relief options), I believe he has a chance to impact the big league club this year. After an up-and-down 2022 season, the Brewers brought Chirino back on a minor league deal and he brought some additional prospect intrigue thanks to reports of a velocity bump. And he did his best to show that those plaudits were deserved, absolutely dominating at AA early in the season. He looked like an early promotion to AAA was likely. And then he got hurt. Chirino went on the injured list May 24 and never came back off of it. The Brewers brought him back on another minor league free agent contract, though, with a big league camp invite signaling this is more than just allowing him to complete his rehab. The Brewers are no strangers to relievers taking a meandering path to the big leagues, and Chirino appears as if he could be the latest example. Tier 2: Russell Smith & Daniel Corniel At first these two might not seem to have much in common. Corniel is a 6-foot righty, Smith is a 6-7 lefty. Smith was a second round pick, Corniel was a late addition to the Brewers 2022 international signing class. Corniel started last season while Smith pitched out of the bullpen. They do have a few things in common, however. They posted somewhat unsightly ERAs, they both have shown the ability to strike hitters out at a high clip, and they both saved their best work for the end of the season. In a league in which hitting ruled, Corniel's ACL season was pretty erratic. In 11 total outings, he gave up four or more earned runs four times (all in four or fewer innings). He also gave up one or no earned runs six times, including a pair of five-inning, eight strikeout gems. The latter half of his season was particularly impressive as he posted a sub-3.00 ERA with 13.3 K/9 over his last five outings. I wouldn't be surprised if Corniel ended up back in the ACL this year, but I also wouldn't be shocked if he ended up solidifying a spot in the Carolina starting rotation. For Smith, the strikeouts had been there all season. In fact, his 10.4 K/9 in August and September was actually down from his earlier work in Biloxi. So what changed to the point where he had a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP in August and September combined after posting unsightly 7.00+ ERAs in both June and July? Two things: First, he cut his walk rate down to a decidedly manageable 2.5/9. Second, he did a much better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark. It is often said that tall pitchers sometimes need more development time. Smith's pre-draft scouting report indicated he might be an exception. That obviously has not been the case, but that doesn't mean he can't take the more common path and carve out a role in the Brewers' bullpen in the coming years. Tier 3: Ranwell Smith If player development is above all about improvement, then Smith quietly had a very successful 2023. A year after scuffling as one of the youngest Brewers DSL pitchers to a 6.20 ERA and walking more than he struck out, Smith put together a much better encore. His K/9 jumped to nearly 10. His walks were still too high at 5.3/9, but even that marked a decided improvement. Smith is caught in an uncomfortable spot. The greater success of a lot of his teammates last season might make it difficult to squeeze onto the ACL roster, and the track record of guys who spend three years in the DSL isn't exactly great. His second season, however, gives hope, however, that a greater breakthrough might be within sight. I wouldn't have held that much optimism after his 2022. Your Turn I've made my picks. Now it is your turn. Which Brewers prospects who aren't typically listed in the top 30 now do you think will move up the rankings this season?

Projections are always going to err on the side of regression toward the mean (and for starters it is closer to 60% vs. 40% if I did the math right). The optimism the Brewers can get 4 starters out of the 7 possibilities behind Peralta stems in part I think from their ability to do so with less than ideal options in past years.

This feels like less of a big deal than it would have been before they moved the draft to later in the year. Really for the Brewers the only of the four quadrants that it really impacts is high school hitters. The Boeve and Wilken types will still find their way to full season ball and I don’t believe any drafted or post draft free agent pitchers pitched even five innings in the ACL for Milwaukee last season.

I feel like Rodriguez is high enough profile that we got scouting reports to back up the stats. We’ve at least gotten a snippet here or there on Di Turi and Ibarguen, too. Anything beyond that falls into the interesting sleeper category based on organizational signals and stat lines (find a player who didn’t strike out much who got a lot of playing time at a premium position).

Yah, it is tough to know much stuff wise about the DSL pitchers. Honestly, despite him having repeated the level, based off just stats you could make a case for ranking Flores before those three just because of the combination of K rate and extreme ground ball tendencies.

Let me say in advance that I hate, hate, hate the 165-player cap. That being said, this surprises me. Unless a lot of teams have reached the offseason cap, it would seem that the triple-A guys would be the ones least affected. First, while the elimination of a level of rookie ball has undoubtedly affected the composition of low-A rosters and had smaller impacts on high-A and perhaps even double-A, I don’t think those effects are really being felt in triple-A. Second, I would imagine a lot of teams are in the same situation the Brewers are in now, where every new triple-A signing is likely to be met with a release or long-term IL stint when they break camp, not from a 165 perspective but simply from an individual team roster and logistics perspective. I could see it maybe being slightly down from last year, but it seems the loosening of the individual team roster limits post-pandemic would probably help the triple-A guys more than the 165 would hurt them. And the lower levels are obviously a different story.

Jackson ChourioJeferson QueroJacob MisiorowskiTyler BlackJoey OrtizBrock WilkenRobert GasserDL HallCarlos F RodriguezJosh KnothLuis LaraCooper PrattYophery RodriguezLuke AdamsEric Brown JrLogan HendersonJadher AreinamoPatricio AquinoBradley BlalockOliver Dunn The next 11 in alphabetical order: Baez, Birchard, Bitonti, Boeve, Cornielle, Crow, Di Turi, Quintana, O'Rae, Rivero, S. Smith After the top four, this broke down fairly easily into groupings, although rankings within some of those groups would depend on which day I am doing this: 5-9 - The fringe top 100 types, All likely to begin the year at double-A or higher 10-13 - The young, potential risers. All are further from the big leagues but the arrow is pointed up 14-16 - No man's land. Reasons for optimism and concern with each that have them stuck between the upper echelons above them and the wider prospect plain below 17-31 - This is where it got difficult. It being me, Areinamo was getting one of the spots. It came down to Aquino, Blaylock, Dunn, Boeve, Cornielle and Crow for the other three. I knocked Crow out because of the injury, and the depth was too great to give a "my guy" spot to Cornielle this time around. Ultimately for the last spot, I left Boeve out. I vacillate on him. On one hand, the hit tool is so vital. On the other hand, there are aspects of the profile that would usually make me say "Check back when he gets to double-A." That side won out this time.

Assuming that Yelich, Chourio and Frelick are healthy, I kind of hope Mitchell and Wiemer are an either or proposition to start the season even if they keep 5 outfielders. Both could use more at bats than a fifth outfielder would get.

I didn’t like the deal but I think the fact they gave up a halfway intriguing prospect for Bauers means they like him enough to at least start the year on the roster.

So we can expect Adames or Williams to be dealt tomorrow morning then?

Nothing would surprise me with Adames. I could see them not getting any decent offers or getting one almost as good as what they traded Burnes for. On one hand, he is coming off a down year. On the other hand, if you want to improve at shortstop there aren't many other options out there.

I had 15 players I considered for the last 4 spots and ended up leaving out two players I'm guessing will be on most ballots.

I have said it before, and I am not sure why it strikes me this way, but River Ryan feels like someone the Brewers would target.

I have my doubts that the Dodgers will deal Sheehan given Buehler not being ready for opening day, Frasso likely to miss the whole year and the fact they signed or traded for a who's-who of frequently injured pitchers. (Of course all this goes out the window if they sign another high-priced free agent.) I think if you are getting a pitcher from the Dodgers, it is more likely to be Ryan or Ferris.

Was I the only one who thought signing Hoskins made sense whether Burnes and Adames were traded or not? It seems like the Brewers are trying to jump straight from a playoff team to the final year of a rebuild thanks to the amount of young talent on the team and in the high minors. A Hoskins type deal makes a ton of sense in that case. He’s not blocking a prospect. If the team is a year ahead of schedule, he helps them win. If not, he could be an attractive trade piece at the deadline.

Well, looks like Frasso is probably off the primary target list with the shoulder surgery.

It's obviously not a fair comparison, because triple-A vs. majors, but Ortiz was very much the Bo Bichette of triple-A last year. From their exit velocities to their hard-hit rate to their lack of fly balls to their lower walk rates, it is kind of uncanny. Honestly Ortiz was just a tick behind Westburg for the hardest hitting shortstop in AAA last year, and was better in many ways than Kjerstad on that team.

This trade comes down to whether you think Ortiz will hit and Hall will start. If you do, it’s a good deal. If not, it is underwhelming. It was unlikely they were getting a top-30 type unless some team really panicked.