CheeseheadInQC

On the other hand it is nice to have someone new to blame for holding up the offseason. It was getting dull blaming Boras every year.

You are right about the timing, but if those dominoes fall, whatever big trades they are going to make get made and the Brewers don't have any shortstop other than Turang, IKF could be a useful addition if he is still available.

There are plenty of stories from the Brewers' 2023 minor league season of players stepping up and loudly announcing themselves as prospects to watch. This is not one of those stories. This is a story of entire seasons lost to injury, of struggles at a new level. It is a story where even most of the successes come with an asterisk. It is also one, though, that comes with a reminder that just because results might not be particularly hopeful doesn't necessarily mean they are hopeless. This is the story of the 14 pitchers who mostly comprised the shifting 2022 Brewers DSL starting rotations. The One Who Got Released By most normal standards, Jeral Vizcaino's 2022 season for the Brewers DSL squad was a rousing success. He had a 1.46 ERA and a WHIP just above 1 while striking out just over a hitter an inning. When you are in your age 20 season in the DSL, however, you have to convince the team that you deserve a spot stateside. For whatever reason (with the consolidation from two to one ACL squad likely at least partially to blame), the Brewers released Vizcaino. He hooked on with the Cubs' DSL squad, and had a similarly good 2023. Now he is hoping his age 22 season is the one in which he finally gets a complex league spot. The Lost Seasons The Returning Ace, The Opening Day Starter And The Big Lefty Kevin Briceno's strong work out of the bullpen for the 2021 DSL squad seemed to have him in line for a similar role in Arizona in 2022. The Brewers had other ideas, however, and installed the 6-1 righty as one of their opening day starters in the DSL. He rewarded them with six starts with a sub-1.50 ERA and better than 6:1 strikeout to walk rate before getting moved to Arizona. His metrics slipped stateside, but he was good enough at keeping runs off the board where he seemed to have an outside shot at pitching in Carolina to open the 2023 season. He didn't, and he didn't in Arizona, either. indeed, Briceno missed the whole season because of injury. The same fate also befell the Brewers' other opening day DSL starter in 2022, Daurys Mora. By most measures other than his 5.50 ERA, Mora had a pretty average 2022. He didn't strike out a ton but didn't walk a ton either. His xFIP was seventh out of the 14 pitchers who started at least 5 DSL games for the Brewers. He didn't get a chance to build on that in 2023, however, missing the entire season. Wande Torres was intriguing in 2022 mainly for three reasons: 1. At 6-3 he was tied for the tallest among the DSL starters. 2. He pitches left-handed 3. He struck out more than 10 batters per 9 in that, his age 17 season. When his name first appeared on the ACL roster as its season was about to begin in 2023, I thought maybe the Brewers had seen signs that Torres, who had the second highest bonus among pitchers in the 2022 international signing class, had improved upon the control problems that plagued him during his debut season. Instead, it was a paper transaction, as Torres was soon moved to the IL, not pitching an inning in 2023. Dencer Geraldo, despite pitching in 2023, also probably belongs in the lost season category. After posting a 6+ ERA in his second DSL season in 2022, Geraldo's 2023 season was over after just 2 2/3 innings. Left Behind in the DR This is where the asterisks come in. Each of these four pitchers improved in almost every metric this season, but how much was simply due to having that year of experience under their belt? The players in the DSL are so young and there is so much year-to-year turnover, that even having that one extra year of experience can give the players a big advantage. That being said, improving is definitely better than the alternative. And none of these improved more than Anthony Flores. After barely breaking a 6.00 ERA in his first season, the highest bonus pitcher in the Brewers' 2022 signing class, shaved more than two and a half runs off his ERA. He was one of only seven qualifying pitchers in the DSL to post a FIP under 3.00, a group that included fellow Brewers prospect Enniel Cortez. His K/BB rate went from 1.36 to 3.56. Aneuris Rodriguez, like Torres, finished 2022 with a solid sub-4.00 ERA but shakier peripherals. Those improved in 2023, with Rodriguez shaving 1.5 off his BB/9 while adding more than 1.5 to his K/9. While the Brewers' 2023 ACL pitching staff is going to be pretty stocked, those totals should put Rodriguez in line to join Flores stateside in 2023. The improvements weren't quite as dramatic for Bryan Rivera, The Brewers' DSL innings pitched leader did, however, post a 3.57 ERA despite being the Brewers DSL starter most often hurt by the home run ball. The two-point drop in ERA was perhaps the most notable statistical change for Rivera, who improved his strikeout and walk rates, but less than the numbers seen by Flores, Rivera and last holdover. That would be Ranwell Smith, the youngest and arguably least successful of the 2022 Brewers DSL starters. Smith, who walked more hitters than he struck out in 2022, raised his strikeout rate almost three K/9 and improved his BB/9 by almost two. He still walked a few too many hitters, but the fact that he still managed to be among the least successful said a lot more about the strength of the Brewers' 2023 DSL staffs, which posted above average results despite being among the league's youngest. Journeying Stateside Once Vizcaino was released, it appeared as if there were three locks to be brought stateside. Anfernny Reyes and Osbriel Mogollon served as the top performers after Briceno's promotion. Then you had Daniel Corniel, whose mediocre to poor ERA masked some of the staff's better peripherals. To that the Brewers added two more, Manuel Rodriguez, who was only a couple of days older than Ranwell Smith, and surprisingly, Darling Solano. Who had the best season among this group is tough to say, and you could make a case for any of four of them having the most promising showing depending upon which metric you use. Mogollon had the best ERA at 3.72. That ERA, however, masked a walk rate that swelled enough to send his K/BB rate below 2. Corniel struck out nearly 12 batters per 9 innings but also had trouble with walks. He had a 5.70 ERA, in large part thanks to two blowup starts midseason, but led the team in starts. He mixed dominant starts with bouts of ineffectiveness. Rodriguez was one of the only Brewers ACL pitchers who wasn't victimized by walks, with his 5.7% walk rate leading to a solid 1.23 WHIP and him being the only Brewers' ACL starter to average more than four innings per outing. He also, however, had one of the team's lowest strikeout rates and was victimized by the long ball ... a lot. His 1.74 HR/9 dwarfed his next closest teammate. His ERA was passable for the league, but his FIP of 6.61 was more concerning. Reyes had the highest strikeout rate on the team among pitchers with at least 20 innings and coupled it with a walk rate that, while not good, was at least better than most of his non-Rodriguez teammates. However, he did it out of the bullpen. Although an early move to the bullpen isn't as big of an issue as it used to be (the Brewers are much more open to moving guys they envision as relievers to the bullpen early than they once were), I don't know that it would count as a positive development, either. As for Solano, the righty was a surprise ACL addition after being one of the more erratic members of the 2022 DSL rotation. He had one big plus, though, striking out more than 13 batters per 9 innings. That, however, eluded him in the ACL, as that number dropped below 7. His walk rate also jumped higher, moving above 10. Reasons for Optimism Despite the struggles, there are a few reasons for optimism about this group: 1. Repeating a Level Isn't As Big of a Stigma for a Pitcher In general, I am skeptical of stats for hitters repeating a level, especially for the DSL. It's why I kind of tempered my enthusiasm for Yeison Perez last year and Demetrio Nadal this year. The routes to pitchers developing, however, can be a bit more meandering, especially for ones that young. There is a reason why most of the highest money international signings, not just for the Brewers but in general, are hitters. It just seems like the advantage of an extra year of experience, in the absence of other improvements, is lesser for pitchers than hitters. 2. The Galindez effect Yorman Galindez finished the season strong in Carolina. The thing is, you wouldn't have predicted that at all if you just looked at his ACL stats. He might not be the only one. The average ERA for the ACL? 5.78 There is a chance that the absurd hitting environment in the ACL managed to mask signs of progress among the pitchers there. 3. A Bizarre Transaction There is hard to find a silver lining in injuries, especially at the DSL and ACL levels. We've seen too many players lately who have ended up never throwing another pitch in the organization again. That being said, remember when it appeared as if Aldrin Gonzalez, who had been getting some post-signing hype, was going to skip the DSL only to be put on the ACL injured list? Gonzalez wasn't the only prospect promoted only to be shut down for the season before throwing an inning. Wande Torres was, too. I will admit, I have no clue what this means, but most of the explanations I have come up with (wanting him to rehab at the team's Arizona facility, having been injured in Arizona getting ready to join the ACL club) point to the organization seeing something in the young lefty. 4. An Eye-Opening Combination One of the intriguing statistics as Aaron Ashby was climbing the prospect ranks was that he combined the strikeout rate of a power pitcher with the groundball rate of a pitch-to-contact groundball specialist. Flores put together that same combination in the DSL last season. He was among the league leaders in both ground ball rate and strikeout rate. It's more than enough for me to be genuinely intrigued to see if it will continue stateside next year.

I would imagine signing him would follow an Adames trade. At that point, who would be the backup shortstop? I don’t know that they trust Monasterio there. Miller’s not really a shortstop. Capra is listed by Fangraphs as a DH to tell you what they think of his defense. If you don’t get a big league ready shortstop prospect back in a trade, I think they probably sign someone as a backup/insurance for Turang. IKF is probably about as good as it gets based on who is out there unless you think Yonny Hernandez is breaking out.

I kind of figured that they would come away with one more outfielder as well instead of losing one. As big as the outfield glut is in the big leagues and triple-A, there isn't a ton there numbers-wise once you get past that. Right now, unless someone who should be at triple-A is held back (probably Collins or Campbell), the Biloxi outfield likely has Rodriguez and Sparks. Doston would probably be the third starter. The options for a fourth outfielder include resuming the Felix Valerio or Ernesto Martinez in the outfield experiments or shifting Jose Acosta out there essentially full time. High-A is I guess a little better. They have Lara, Fernandez and then a lot of question marks about starting in Wisconsin or Carolina (Perez, Castillo, O'Rae, Nicasia). At the start of the offseason I wouldn't have been shocked if they all started in Carolina, but at least starting two of them in Wisconsin doesn't seem like quite as big of a stretch.

If you are just looking at guys who pitched a significant number of innings last season, like it seems was done here, Henderson is the obvious choice. I will, however, say I wouldn’t be shocked if Knoth sees Wisconsin by year’s end, and I am fully expecting it with Birchard and Yoho. Among the DSL guys, I think Flores might be first in line for the late season Carolina cameo given he has an extra year of experience. His combination of strikeouts and ground ball rate last year was Ashby-esque.

Kind of agree with the general sentiment here that Pratt and Rodriguez are the obvious answers while Norman and Nadal are less likely. For Norman it's because he really needs to find a way to make it work at catcher, which will both slow him down naturally as well as the focus that it will require might slow the progress of his bat. You simply can't extrapolate a DH-worthy bat solely from stats in the hitter-friendly ACL. For Nadal, I don't trust DSL hitting stats from guys repeating the level. While he is a slightly different case in that the ACL consolidation probably was to blame for him not making the jump stateside last year, I still wouldn't put him as any more likely to make a two-level jump over the course of the season than the guys who had better stats in their first seasons than he had as a DSL rookie like Ibarguen, Di Turi or Alastre. If I had to choose a third one, I'd go O'Rae over Baez for the very reason I slightly prefer Baez as a prospect. O'Rae's biggest negative is always going to be his biggest negative. He's not going to be held back while trying to develop power. Once he shows that his strengths are still strengths at the new level and that they are enough for his bat to still be plus, he's likely going to get moved up. Baez, they might hold back as they try to develop a bit more selective of an approach.

Unless they really like the long term upside of someone, I doubt they take a hitter. They have enough 40-man spots to play with, though, where taking a pitcher wouldn't surprise me at all. I've already made my case elsewhere for an Evan Reifert reunion, but Seymour is another intriguing option in the realm of Rays who probably wouldn't be available if they had stayed healthy. If I'd have to guess I'd say no Brewers get picked, but if they do, I think they'd go for Myers, if a team thinks his stuff will play up in the bullpen, or Devanney, if they just want to come out of the draft with a utility infielder (none of the other options really have had more triple-A success than he has). I don't know if McKendry is seen as having the upside where a team would grab him without the luxury of being able to option him. Longer shots: Zamora (dearth of true shortstops with double-A experience in the draft), Carlos Rodriguez (coming off the strong winter league performance), Isaac Collins (would be at a higher tier if he could be more of a true utility infielder), Justin Yeager. Really long shots, but make me slightly nervous because I am high on them: Harold Chirino and Alexander Cornielle. I'd imagine at the least there is a bit of shuffling in the triple-A phase. The Brewers could use additional high-A catching and outfield depth. And on the other side, there are a number of at least mildly intriguing guys, including at least one or two former top-30 prospects, who I could see the team leaving unprotected.

Really good listen

It wouldn’t shock me if we are talking about Knoth and Rodriguez as top 100 prospects this time next year.

My general rule is don't get too excited about relievers until they reach AA. I'll occasionally break it either because of amazing scouting reports like Uribe or just kind of on a hunch like Reifert or sort of Shane Smith before his promotion. In general, though, I try to hold expectations down. That being said, I find the way the Brewers have assembled some of these lower level bullpens utterly fascinating. They have this bizarre assemblage of Indy Ball veterans, undrafted free agents and Ex-DSLers who put up mediocre to poor stats their first two years in the system. If this were 10-15 years ago, I would have thought they were filling a bunch of roster vacancies with cannon fodder because, well, someone had to eat the bullpen innings. Probably still would with some other organizations. With the current Brewers system, though, it feels far more intentional than that. It seems like the Brewers have made a conscious decision that this is the best way to get potential major leaguers out of the minor league relief corps. Hopefully the guys on this list and others not mentioned continue to make this look like a smart move. Regardless, I'll be here paying attention, because like I said, utterly fascinating.

Chapman is almost certainly going to get more, but that’s neither here nor there. If you still have Chourio, you are still going to be paying Chourio during that stretch, less if he flops but more if he hits big. Also, Chourio’s deal, if it is like most of these, will mimic the typical salary scale, so those first two years will be the cheapest. This deal might add a million or so to the payroll over those two years.

With the contract they gave him, I wonder if they envision Martinez starting.

Some interesting arms here. One will most likely end up on my sleepers list. The goal, as always, is to have enough minor league depth where they don’t feel compelled to make an ill-advised trade for a reliever at the deadline.

Did I miss something? Heyman's reasoning seems to be that with Burnes, the Brewers would still be among the favorites to win the division and that the Brewers have resisted the notion of a full tear down. He didn't even site what he was hearing, did he? Regardless, it has felt to me like the Brewers were open to trading him but didn't feel compelled to do so. Not sure this messaging is much different.

List of starters, along with the two the Cardinals already signed, they have at 1-2 years and $8-13M AAV: Seth Lugo, Mike Clevinger, Kenta Maeda, Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, Wade Miley, James Paxton, Martin Perez, Frankie Montas, Jake Odorizzi. It will be interesting to see how many actually fall into that band. Regardless, I could easily see the Brewers shopping in this tier.

For what it is worth, the Fangraphs crowd sourced predictions had Gibson spot on. They have Severino 1/10, which seems plausible. I think you are going to see a lot of pitchers in the 9-12 million AAV for 1-2 years range.

I guess my main issue is this leaves them dangerously thin at short both this year and next unless Brown takes a big leap forward this summer.

Unless he is lumped in with the relievers, I'd include Jesus Rivero here. Definite breakout season. Also, I know the ACL numbers are mediocre at best, but I'd include Yorman Galindez, too. Pretty much all the starters' ACL numbers were bad, and he pitched well in Carolina to end the season.

Wasn’t this expected? I don’t know that I would do it, but $10 million was the Fangraphs projection for him.

I probably should have combined the two deals and taken out Wroblewski. My opinion is, though, if they deal all three, I’d prefer two of the three main pieces to be pitchers, and that is unlikely to come from the Orioles.

Yah, I basically just tossed a name in the DH spot, figuring it would be a rotation.

OK, let me start by saying this: I don't necessarily think this is what the Brewers should do or will do. However, I wanted to try to put together a scenario in which the Brewers treat 2024 like the first and last years of a rebuild at the same time: trading Burnes, Adames and Williams but also adding "what if we're a year ahead of schedule pieces" that, if they are performing well can be dealt at the deadline if the club isn't. I was hoping to bring back another upper level infield bat in a trade, but the fits weren't exceptional (I did come close to changing the second and third pieces of the Orioles deal to include Norby). So in the end I loaded up on pitching, figuring it is usually easier to trade excess pitching for value than excess hitting. Trades: Burnes to the Dodgers for Pepiot, River Ryan and Joendry Vargas Williams to the Orioles for Joey Ortiz, Chayce McDermott and Braylin Tavera Adames and Janson Junk (clearing out a triple-A rotation spot) to the Dodgers for Nick Frasso, Justin Wroblewski and a PTBNL (Yeiner Fernandez if he isn't picked in the Rule 5 draft) Free Agent Acquisitions: Rhys Hoskins (1-year, $17 million) Luis Severino (1-year, $14 million) Victor Caratini (1-year, $7 million) Rule 5 draft: Bring Back Evan Reifert Notes: Depending upon spring training, Chourio could bump Taylor to Perkins' spot and Perkins to triple-A New Triple-A rotation: Nick Frasso Carlos Rodriguez River Ryan Chayce McDermott Aaron Ashby (putting him in triple-A until he proves he is back) C: William Contreras ($0.77M) 1B: Rhys Hoskins ($17.00M) 2B: Brice Turang ($0.77M) 3B: Tyler Black ($0.77M) SS: Joey Ortiz ($0.77M) LF: Christian Yelich ($26.00M) CF: Garrett Mitchell ($0.77M) RF: Tyrone Taylor ($1.70M) DH: Sal Frelick ($0.77M) Bench OF: Blake Perkins ($0.77M) Utility: Jake Bauers ($1.7M) Utility: Andruw Monasterio ($0.77M) Backup C: Victor Caratini ($7.00M) SP1: Freddy Peralta ($5.50M) SP2: Luis Severino ($12.00M) SP3: Adrian Houser ($5.60M) SP4: Ryan Pepiot ($0.77M) SP5: Robert Gasser ($0.77M) CL: Abner Uribe ($0.77M) RP: Joel Payamps ($1.70M) RP: Hoby Milner ($1.70M) RP: Bryse Wilson ($1.30M) RP: Evan Reifert ($0.77M) RP: Trevor Megill ($0.77M) RP: Elvis Peguero ($0.77M) RP: Colin Rea ($3.50M) Payroll is 31.80% under budget

What if they instead spend it on a pitcher to, you know, replace Woodruff?

I was just figuring with Bitonti likely there, too, there would be days where both would probably be playing the field. Unless Bitonti gets first base time.