CheeseheadInQC

I tried to put together something like the Twins package but from another team (if that Twins package was supposed to indicate the type of deal they were considering). If it is just for Burnes, the closest I could come up with was Povich, McDermott and Ramon Urias from Baltimore.

Correct me if I am wrong but I think the Miley and Ross signings and Chourio extension happened after they tendered them. All three affected the depth chart at those positions.

When you hear the word logjam in regards to the Milwaukee Brewers these days you typically think of one thing: the outfield in the majors and at triple-A. And for good reason. You've got a punch of recently graduated top prospects, a former MVP, a couple of useful reserves, and, oh yah, one of the top prospects in baseball. The logjam I'm going to talk about, though, isn't at the big league level or even close to it. And it (likely) doesn't involve any of the system's "name" prospects. How it works out, however, could go a long way to determining the quality of depth in a key area of the Brewers' system in the years to come. That area? The upcoming season's ACL Brewers pitching staff. While the only guy making top 30 lists from the group might be Bishop Letson (assuming Josh Knoth starts the season in Carolina), it feels like there are more guys who could make the leap to that level than there have been in a while. The High School Draft Picks The Brewers traditionally haven't been a team that has drafted and signed a bunch of high school pitchers. Heading into the 2023 draft, they hadn't signed more than four high school pitchers from any draft class since 2017 when they signed six. Before that, you have to go all the way back to the Jake Odorizzi draft in 2008 when they signed seven. In fact, since 2020, they had signed only one or two, depending on how you classified Quinton Low upon being drafted. That's why it was a minor shock when the Brewers drafted seven high school pitchers in the 2023 draft. It was a major shock when they managed to sign five of them. Assuming that Justin Chambers is recovered enough from Tommy John surgery, the final four of those five picked will likely be on the ACL staff this coming season: Bishop Letson, Bjorn Johnson, Hayden Robinson and Chambers. All four got fifth- or sixth-round money, with Chambers leading the way at $547,500. They were the sixth through ninth highest signing bonuses of the draft for the Brewers. Get more information on the four here. All, assuming they can stay healthy (or in the case of Chambers get healthy), should offer some of the more interesting pitching lines to watch in the ACL this season. Although with pitchers this young, that is too often easier said that done, as the careers of the one high schooler the Brewers drafted and signed solely as a pitcher recently (Caden Vire) and the first two high school pitchers they chose in that 2017 draft (Caden Lemons and Brendan Murphy) show. The Holdovers Between all of the college pitchers the Brewers drafted or signed last season and the players repeating at Carolina, there might not be a ton of spots for the group that was with the ACL squad all season. As of right now, I'm projecting Osbriel Mogollon, Anfernny Reyes and Brailin Rodriguez as the ones getting promoted from that group. That leaves a couple of interesting prospects behind. Daniel Corniel: After having some of the best peripherals on either of the DSL squads in 2022, Corniel followed that up by having a highly erratic but occasionally dominant season in Arizona. I can't claim to be an expert on his stuff, but statistically at least he still seems like an interesting prospect. Manuel Rodriguez: Labeled by Fangraphs as someone who could become an interesting prospect if he gained a few ticks on his velocity, the youngest active pitcher on the Brewers ACL squad was the opposite of a lot of the other ACL youngsters last season: he struggled to miss bats but experienced some success because he was one of the team's best at limiting walks. The Field: Jesus Rivero wasn't all that interesting statistically, until suddenly he was. There very well might be a random likely ACL repeater with better stuff than results who manages to start to piece things together to become interesting. I don't know that I'd bet on any of them individually, but it wouldn't be at all shocking if one of the guys from this tier, be it Henrison Mota, Darling Solano or someone else, at least breaks into the "mildly intriguing" level next season. The Likely Promotions Any discussion of pitchers from last year's DSL squads has to start with three players: the Brewers' highest bonus pitching signings from the 2022 and 2023 international class and the guy who led the entire DSL in strikeout to walk rate: Anthony Flores, Eric Prado and Enniel Cortez. Barring injury, it would be shocking not to see all three suiting up stateside this summer. Prado's season might not have been quite as promising as his ERA indicated, but it was still solid, and combined with being the rare Brewers pitcher with at least some signing day hype, earns him a spot toward the top of this list. Flores, as I alluded to in a previous blog, had an Aaron Ashby-esque season (at least the minor league version), combining high strikeout totals with a lot of groundballs. Cortez was among the best pitchers in the DSL, ranking third among qualifiers in ERA and second in FIP along with his eye-popping .99 BB/9. Even after those three, there is a significant depth of promotion possibilities. Melvin Hernandez is taking a page from the Manuel Rodriguez playbook as one of the youngest pitchers on last year's DSL team didn't miss as many bats as a lot of his teammates but succeeded by limiting walks. Aneuris Rodriguez is old for a Brewers DSL prospect, which can sometimes be a death knell, but had the third best FIP on the squads last year. You can also make good cases for holdovers Bryan Rivera and Ranwell Smith as well as DSL rookie Esmir Suarez coming stateside. The Comeback Kids It seems fitting to be writing this section on a day when the Brewers picked up a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery, but there are several intriguing names coming off injuries who could start in the ACL. Since I already mentioned Chambers, we'll start with the Brewers' other 2023 draft pick on the comeback trail from Tommy John. It seems likely that fourth rounder Jason Woodward will pitch this season, and that pitching will likely at least start in the ACL. While it was a below slot pick, the Brewers still had enough options at that price point in the fourth round to think that they see something they like in the former Florida Gulf Coast ace. Aldrin Gonzalez briefly got everyone's hopes up with an ACL assignment before being immediately thereafter put on the season-ending injury list. I still have no clue why the Brewers would promote him just to put him on the injured list, but most of the explanations I can come up with would indicate the organization is high on Gonzalez, who apparently was already throwing 95 at the time of his signing as a 16-year-old. Speaking of players mysteriously promoted to the ACL injured list, Wande Torres is intriguing if only because he is 6-3, left-handed and missed a fair number of bats in his erratic 2022 DSL season. Kevin Briceno was a nice story during the 2022 season, earning a rare in-season promotion from the DSL and holding his own in the ACL as well. He then missed pretty much all of his follow-up season with injury. It is tough to really project much from this group given the unfortunate fact that, at the lower levels, many a pitcher gets hurt and then is never heard from again. In each of these cases, though, there is at least some reason for optimism. A New Strategy? Given the way that the offseason has gone so far, it seems like the Brewers are taking an approach to trade from their non-top-tier hitting prospects while collecting as many promising pitchers as possible, turning their player development system loose and seeing what happens. It would seem the upcoming ACL group would be a perfect test case for that philosophy. If the Brewers can get even 3-4 of the names on this list to break out significantly it would go a long way to establishing a deeper pipeline of pitching talent for future years.

Depending upon which ranking site you use, I could see there being one well and truly blocked exception if that team decides to go for it. That being said, what you said is part of the reason why I am OK keeping Burnes if no really good offer comes along. Sign Hoskins or, if that fails, Santana, and hope that a healthy Ashby can shore up the rotation and that the young hitters take a step forward. There is an injury risk, but assuming Burnes doesn't suffer a serious injury, that comp pick has significant value in part because of how creative the Brewers have gotten with their draft pool in recent years. Having not just the pick but the extra cash allows them to be more proactive in going after prospects they like, whereas with a trade you are obviously more limited by which players the team makes available. If they do trade him, I hope it is for pitching beyond the obvious reason of organizational depth right now. As I think you might have alluded to, I think it is more likely that the Brewers are going to find a couple of pitchers with traits they think they can mold into top-100 types than it is that they'll find a breakout hitter unless they go for DSL or complex league guys.

I might be completely off base, but I think the Brewers are going for quality for hitting prospects and quantity for starting pitching prospects. They have treated non-top 25 hitting prospects as completely tradable, but seem to be collecting starting pitchers in that range. It has been consistent enough this offseason to seem like a conscious decision. Also, I think that one of the services had Crow as a top 10 prospect in the Angels organization before the trade. I mean it is the Angels organization, but that’s still something. I am guessing that the Brewers would have easily traded Devanney and Brady for him.

I am also hoping this means they are confident that Ashby’s velocity is back and he will be ready to go. The Brewers did acquire a number of guys with higher ceilings than Houser, but there is a lot of risk there. If they were going to move Houser I kind of wish it was closer to the start of the season when they have at least slightly more info on health factors.

It does feel light, given what the pitching market has been like. That being said, the guy spent most of his career in an organization not exactly known for developing pitching. If this had been a one-for-one for Taylor I would see it as a savvy move.

I have minimal interest in including a pick with Burnes and zero interest in including it for a package that doesn’t include an upper tier pitching prospect. If I thought Sweeney could stick at short I might be tempted on the second because I for some reason feel like Ryan could take a decent sized jump this season, but since I don’t, that is probably closer to what I would hope for if we deal Adames to the Dodgers.

Seems like the biggest change was the power pretty much disappearing.

Unless Adames’ offense regresses further, I think he gets the QO and turns it down. 3-4 WAR shortstops his age get paid, and I don’t know how many other legit options will be available next year.

I think Quero got more than that, but wasn’t one of the highest bonuses. If I recall, he was getting some of the most enthusiastic scouting reports upon signing, although that might not have been the case at the time he actually agreed to the bonus.

Having too many pitchers unfortunately usually finds a way of working itself out without trades.

I don't know that it is that necessarily. They are still signing minor league free agents as well. It just seems like they decided that the place where it hurt them the least to trade from organizationally was that 25-50 range of hitting prospects. All but Brady kind of fell into that zone. I haven't necessarily agreed with every trade, but I guess I'd rather they deal from the hitters than from the high-variance pitcher types like Low or Rivero. It is definitely more likely that Devanney ends up seeing the big leagues than those two, but I still would rather deal him considering where the organization is right now. That said, I fully expect him to get called up next year and give them at least the passable production that Fry gave the Guardians last season.

Fair, I guess I had forgotten his performance there. Maybe Zamora or Murray will get the nod.

Based on the Brewers’ valuing of defense, and the reviews of Capra at short, I’m guessing Yonny.

Is Vaughn actually good or is he just a name because of his draft status? Is there reason to think he’s going to be more than he has been? Because I don’t know that I would want to give up much for a guy who might be non-tendered next season if he doesn’t improve.

If he even replicates this past season, I think the Brewers give him a qualifying offer. They will likely have a chunk of payroll space, it's a one-year deal, and Adames, even last season, ranked 11th among shortstops in fWAR. Unless I am forgetting someone, the only free agent shortstop in the last couple of seasons coming off a season roughly as good as Adames' 2023 who didn't get a substantial deal was Andrus, and he had struggled enough in the previous few seasons where no one really expected him to continue his contract-year pace.

It will be interesting to see what the rosters look like. Personally I would put the lineup like this (and I realize there likely won't be 18 position players, but I gave everyone a backup for symmetry): C: Quero. Backup: Wood 1B: Black. Backup: Clarke 2B: Brown. Backup: Dunn SS: Pratt. Backup: Areinamo 3B: Wilken. Backup: Bitonti OF: Chourio. Backup: O'Rae OF: Lara. Backup: Carlos Rodriguez OF: Yophery Rodriguez. Backup: Roller DH: Adams. Backup: Boeve Pitchers (Assuming they do one per inning) 1. Misiorowski 2. Gasser 3. Rodriguez 4. Knoth 5. Henderson 6. Blaylock CL. Shane Smith Alt. Aquino Alt. Cornielle Alt. Birchard Notes: 1. You could make a case for Navarreto as the backup catcher, but the Brewers won't do it for the optics of putting a multiple time minor league free agent in a top prospects game roster. 2. Baez was easily the toughest one to leave out. Di Turi and Guilarte would probably be next. 3. I was going to put a second true reliever as an alternate on the pitching staff but couldn't decide who. Tons of players who could break out, but Smith is the only one who stands out from the crowd at this point for me. If you want to argue for Yeager or Andrews or Horub or Small or Yoho or Yerlin Rodriguez, you might be right. If he's healthy, I'm not entirely convinced it isn't Chirino. 4. Roller got the final backup outfield slot because he's on the 40-man, but if you want to argue for Perez or Collins or Campbell or, heck, Pedro Ibarguen, you could probably convince me.

It will be interesting to see who gets chosen. Will it be mostly upper level guys or will they bring Pratt, Rodriguez and Knoth, too?

If there is interest in a reunion, bringing back Diaz and Sibrian makes sense. I looked through 3/4 of the list and the only more interesting catcher who isn’t over qualified for a A+ or AA role was the Twins’ Jeferson Morales.

I had the weird experience of working in Iowa but paying taxes in Illinois where I lived but when I was briefly furloughed during the pandemic applying for unemployment benefits through Iowa. Living and working in a border region for a company that operated in both states could get a bit confusing paperwork-wise.

Assuming that the contract would have been in the $460 million range without the deferrals, you could make a good case this structure benefits Ohtani more than the Dodgers. 1. If accurate, you have the tax dodge. 2. He gets to claim the absurd $700 million figure 3. He gets the good publicity about being dedicated to winning by deferring the money without costing him anything. The Dodgers, on the other hand, kick the can down the road on the payments but end up with the same CBT number.

From a purely roster perspective at the minor league level, they could use an additional outfielder and catcher in high-A and double-A. An international signing hitting free agency at 23 or an Indy ball hitter wouldn’t shock me there. Unless he managed to make big strides defensively, I think the Feliciano ship might have sailed. The Brewers’ way didn’t produce results there. I don’t know, for that reason, that a reunion is in either side’s best interest.

Yah, the Yankees got a decent up-down reliever for swapping similarly ranked prospects, one of whom needs a 40-man spot while the other doesn’t. And it sounds unlikely Sweeney is a full time big league shortstop.

I have heard in general that part of this is offset by the amount of additional revenue he brings in but haven’t really seen how much. Is it $2 million or $20 million? If it is closer to the latter, that would provide some insurance if he has to give up pitching and move to right field.