CheeseheadInQC

Look back at the history of baseball. It has nothing to do with analytics.

It sounds like Baez is probably best at 3rd, but I still think he will likely see some time at 2nd or short just because of the likely roster construction at Carolina.

5 at-bats short of their cut-off if I remember correctly.

I think it is too early to say on last year’s group, especially given the context of the year. Mitchell and Frelick (and Taylor) getting hurt early forced them to keep playing Wiemer even when it became obvious he could use more triple-A time. The key, though, is going to be producing enough legitimate prospects where when a couple inevitably don’t develop it isn’t as big of a deal.

Some really interesting comments here, including Adams being a divisive prospect and the Ibarguen discussion.

If any team was willing to tender him a contract they probably would have tossed the Brewers a minor lottery ticket to be assured of getting him. I think the fact that he wasn't traded means no team was willing to do that.

I don’t like this trade, but griping about payroll with every minor move doesn’t make sense. We have no idea about what the resource allocation is going to be at this point in the offseason.

I mean, Jake Bauers, with the power and strikeouts, might end up looking like Avina’s future, but that doesn’t make this deal make sense.

What if I were to tell you that the single most dominant pitcher in the 2022 Arizona Fall League was left exposed in this year's Rule 5 draft? The guy who blazed through AFL hitters to the tune of 25 strikeouts to one hit allowed (No, that's not a typo. Yes, that is ridiculous). The guy who followed it up by making a serious run at making one of the best teams in baseball out of spring training, striking out 11 in 4 1/3 scoreless spring innings before getting injured. That would sound like a pretty intriguing Rule 5 pick, right? I agree. That's why I'd encourage the Brewers to leave a roster spot open and, if he gets to their pick ... Bring back Evan Reifert. (Another) One Who Got Away The Brewers signing Reifert after he wasn't selected in the abbreviated 2020 draft was an extension of their apparent mission to find pitching talent wherever it might be. After two years at (where else) junior college, Reifert pitched 2 2/3 innings at Division 2 Central Missouri before the pandemic canceled the rest of the season. Still, in an undrafted free agent class that included Noah Campbell, Brandon Knarr and TJ Shook, it was Reifert who got an invite to the Brewers 2020 instructional league squad. Reifert rewarded that confidence immediately the next spring, needing just nine innings spread out over five appearances at Carolina to convince the Brewers to promote him to Wisconsin. The transition to high-A didn't go smoothly. In his first 11 1/3 with the Rattlers, Reifert allowed seven earned runs and even more concerningly walked 17 hitters. Over his remaining 39 2/3 innings, however, things went much better. He walked just 15 more, posted a WHIP of just a hair over 1 and totaled an ERA of 1.36. Outside of a rough homecoming against the Quad Cities River Bandits for the Wilton, Iowa, native, Reifert was dominant. However, that offseason, the Brewers were looking for a platoon bat to improve their offense against left-handed pitching. In came the Rays' Mike Brousseau and, like so many other recent Brewers minor league pitchers I was higher on than general consensus, Reifert was traded away. (Reese Olson, Bowden Francis, Reifert, to some degree Antoine Kelly ... I half expect Alexander Cornielle to be traded before I finish typing this sentence.) His time with the Rays did not start well, however. He walked seven and gave up eight runs in 3 1/3 innings before being shelved and eventually sent to the complex league to figure things out. And he did, finishing the year strongly enough at high-A to earn him a place in the Arizona Fall League. The Case Against Picking Reifert Let's start with the very real concern: He missed most of 2023 with a shoulder injury. They can be brutal. The results when he came back at the end of the season also were not, well, promising. He walked 15 over 7 2/3 innings spread between rookie ball and high-A. These two factors help explain why the Rays saw fit to leave him exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The Case for Picking Reifert It seems silly to me that I am advocating for picking a pitcher largely because of about 16 innings spread out over two seasons, but here we are. Did you see those stats? Against quality competition, he was absolutely filthy. His strikeout rate has also just always been absurdly high. His 50+ innings with the Timber Rattlers marked the best strikeout rate for a Brewers prospect with at least 50 innings at a level since at least 2006, and it wasn't even particularly close. Aaron Ashby's second place season is closer in K rate to the 17th name on the list than it is to Reifert. Those results, when he is at his best, seem to signal a back end of the bullpen arm. There is substantial risk in Reifert's profile, both because of the injury and the sometimes erratic results. It's the Rule 5 draft, however. If a player is both safe and has a high ceiling, he is not going to be left exposed. So you either grab a cheap bench bat type, ignore it altogether, or suck it up, accept the risk necessary and gamble on upside. For me, especially with where the Brewers are right now, potentially heading into at least a reloading year, I'd gamble on an arm with upside. And I think Evan Reifert is that guy.

It does seem like there is a lot more interesting pitching available this year than hitting. That’s why I think there might be a couple of interesting bargains in the rotation while the top five hitters all get stupid money deals.

Counterpoint: You could make a good case the best player the White Sox got was dealt over the summer for a reliever with a negative career WAR.

Normally, no, but post-Counsell, the optics add legitimate negative value.

It might be a bitter pill to swallow, but if the Cubs offer something like Horton and Ferris and it is clearly the best package, you take it. However, for several reasons, tie goes to literally any other team (yes, even that one).

Toro still had the best season of anyone in that trade last year, but he clearly wasn’t in the Brewers plans.

I think what this says is the Brewers didn’t view Mendez’s swing as fixable. If they did, I don’t think they’d give him up in this deal.

I will say, Fangraphs’ review is positively glowing defensively compared to what they wrote about another recent Brewer pickup, Vinny Capra.

In the realm of joke answers, it might not be the classic the original was, but I was waiting for someone to pull out under Oveur and over Unger.

I will go 17. That is where the tier I have him on starts on that list, and the amount they gave up for him makes me think the organization is high on him.

It was more of a comment on late bloomer, broke out after getting picked in minor league Rule 5 draft, but yah. I definitely agree there seems to be more upside.

Positive view: We got an AFL breakout in exchange for a player who made pretty much 0 progress on his biggest flaw and another who was probably going to be promoted to double-A to make room for younger prospects despite having borderline production. Negative view: Bypass protecting Isaac Collins. Trade a guy with plus contact skills who has been young for his league at every level and a guy who has some decent utility infielder traits for the Phillies’ version of Isaac Collins. Don’t know enough about Dunn to know which is more likely to be correct.

I’m going to be watching a few of the other teams’ lists as well this afternoon, particularly for a couple of former Brewers prospects. It does seem like they have a ton of 40-man flexibility right now.

I think it is more likely that the rumored names were either backup plans in case Murphy bombed his interview or just names leaked as favors to agents. They knew Counsell leaving was a possibility for a while, even if the team was a surprise. They had a whole year to evaluate if Murphy was right for the job. If they thought he was, and an interview or two confirmed that his vision going forward aligned with that of the front office, why go through an elaborate process for show?

Boring hire, but doesn’t mean it was the wrong one. Time will tell, but it makes sense.

Assuming this is all, it was always the most likely outcome, but with the number of roster spots I was expecting a surprise.

Because 1. Defense matters, especially at short. And 2. Hypotheticals based on stats in the absurd hitting environment of the ACL are inherently flawed (in retrospect, Galindez’s stats improving upon his promotion shouldn’t have been surprising). He still might play some short based upon other roster decisions (Is O’Rae an outfielder now? Does Bitonti have less of a chance of sticking at short than Baez?). Overall, though, Pratt will likely get the lion’s share of the work there. Based on the scouting reports I’ve read, it sounds like best case, if he cuts down on the errors, would be the role Urias held, where he is a shortstop once a week to give the starter a day off. It seems like prospect wise in full season ball next year you’ve got a few categories: Shortstops: Zamora, Brown, Guilarte, Barrios Profile better at second, but can play short well enough for a utility role: Areinamo, Moore 3rd basemen with shortstop experience: Baez, Bitonti The coin flip: Pratt